Transcript The Folly Laws of Predictions 1.0 Gordon Bell Microsoft ACM 97 ACM 97 THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING ACM 97

The Folly Laws
of Predictions 1.0
Gordon Bell
Microsoft
ACM 97
ACM 97
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
ACM 97
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing
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James Burke
Master of Ceremonies
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GORDON BELL
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The Folly Laws
of Predictions 1.0
Gordon Bell
Microsoft
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“ market for maybe five
computers.
”
I think there is a world
Thomas Watson Senior,
Chairman of IBM, 1943
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Harvard Mark I
aka IBM ASCC
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Predictions require
some history.
The computer hadn’t been
invented.
 Watson’s prediction held for
10 years.

You
need history to predict.
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“
“
Card readers will peak at 1500
cards per minute by 1974 and
then their use will decline.
”
Advances in cores, wire, and
thin film will provide large
memories with one million
words by 1976.
”
Navy Delphi Panel
1969
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I’ll bet we’ll be
manufacturing cores
in 1980.
”
H. Lamire
VP Manufacturing, Digital
1975
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A technology can come
from nowhere and wipe
you out!

MOS memories and micros were
introduced in 1972.

By 1976, MOS memories wiped
out core memories.
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Moore’s Law 60%/yr. Memory
-- 4 x size every 3 years
10 G
1G
100 M
10 M
1M
100 K
10 K
1K
0.1 K
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
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“
Moore’s Law predicts 2.55
PetaBytes/chip in 30 years.
On 1/97 a U.of Minn. team
stored one electron in a
cell at this density.
”
Nathan Myhrvold
Microsoft, 1/97
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Top 108 reasons we predict
10. A vision and challenge
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Top 108 reasons we predict
10. A vision and challenge
7. To plan and avoid surprises
–
–
MBA schools say so
To maintain staff & budget
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Top 108 reasons we predict
10. A vision and challenge
7. To plan and avoid surprises
–
–
MBA schools say so
To maintain staff & budget
6. To extract great gobs of money
–
–
With a petaflops, we could …
It’s our “Grand Challenge” ...
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Top 108 reasons we predict
5. You have to: business plans,
… grants
4. To stimulate new “zero
growth” markets and lure
investors into new ventures
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Top 108 reasons we predict
5. You have to: business plans,
… grants
4. To stimulate new “zero
growth” markets and lure
investors into new ventures
3. A job. “Futurists” do it for pay.
2. To celebrate anniversaries and
have conferences
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Top 108 reasons we predict
1. To bet on the future and
earn $$$s.
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“
AT&T will not have
screwed up its
purchase of NCR by
1996.
”
anon 1992 ($100)
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“
By 1997
Video-on-Demand will
be available and
operating in six cities
and...
”
Raj Reddy & Ed Lazowska
1992 (winners get fed)
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“
By April 1, 2001
videophones will ship in
50% of the PCs
and be in use.
”
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray
1996 (one paper,
loser gets fed)
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For short-term
predictions, bet
against the optimist.

They are likely to be wrong.
 Longer term, science-based
predictions have a good chance
... wait 11 years (Mead’s Rule)
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For short-term
predictions, bet
against the optimist.

They are likely to be wrong.
 Longer term, science-based
predictions have a good chance
... wait 11 years (Mead’s Rule)
 Organizations usually behave
poorer than anyone can predict
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“
“
“
“
Future computers are BOTH
cheaper AND faster model posited
Semiconductor companies may
make the computers
We need networks, else people are
the network that serve computers
Semiconductors (bipolar) just
improve for 6 more years
Gordon Bell
“ Future of Computing” ACM
at MIT, 1972
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Progress will
continue for just 6
more years!

One generation beyond the
product being worked on

If you are actually doing it as an
engineer ...
you tend to be very conservative
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“
Everything cyberizable
will be in Cyberspace!
”
Gordon Bell
and Jim Gray
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Outline

Cyberspace:
platforms, networks, and cyberization
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Outline

Cyberspace:
platforms, networks, and cyberization

Some Laws from failed
predictions

Useful exponentials for
prediction

Computers we might predict
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Cyberization: interface to all
bits and process information

Coupling to all information and
information processors
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Cyberization: interface to all
bits and process information

Coupling to all information and
information processors
 Pure bits
 Bit tokens
 State: places, things, and people
 State: physical networks
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“Everything will be in
Cyberspace”

Is this a challenge? Our goal?
Our quest? or Fate?
 Cyberization enables
new computing platforms that
require new networks to connect
them
–
Infrastructure supports the content
– Three evolutionary dimensions
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Cyberspace:
A Network of ... Networks of ...
Continent
Body
Region/
Intranet
Home
Campus
World
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Cyberspace: one, two or three
networks?
Data
Telephony
Television
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Cyberspace: A spiraling quest
in 3D real space
Computation
Communication
Cyberization
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Some more Laws from
failed predictions to
guide the journey into
Cyberspace
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“
There is no reason
anyone would want a
computer in their home.
”
Ken Olsen
President, Chairman and
founder of Digital, 1977
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“
UNIX is Snake Oil.
”
Ken Olsen
1987
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“
I wouldn’t put my
company on the
Internet.
”
Ken Olsen, Chairman
Modular Computer Systems
http://www.mod.com
ComputerWorld 1996
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Equating
yourself
to the average
“user/buyer”
is risky . . . unless you’re an
average user.
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“
Some form of voice I/O
will be in common use by 1978
at the latest!
”
A computer will interpret
“ simple spoken sentences
by 1975.
”
Navy Delphi Panel
Bernstein, 1969
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“
Speech systems will be
commercialized because
all significant steps have
been made.
”
Harry Olsen
RCA Labs, 1962
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Speech typewriter:
Microphone  analyzer  code 
typer  pages
With translation:
Microphone  analyzer  code 
translator  code  typer  pages
Translated speech:
Microphone  analyzer  code 
translator  code  synthesizer 
output speech
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Speech predictions
are optimistic
and have been
wrong.
Mobs and especially
committees predict
poorly.
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“
ISDN will be ubiquitous
by 1985.
”
Irwin Dorros, VP Long Lines
ATT, 1981
“ Unfortunately, ISDN is still likely to
become the ubiquitous connection, by
default, for the next 5 years.”
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Gordon Bell, ACM 1997
Network bandwidth
becomes available
slower than the most
conservative
prediction.
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We under-estimate the
devastating power of
companies & planners,
lawyers & government,
to foul up predictions.
But to really foul up requires
an econometric model!
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“
Parallel processing
computer architectures
will be in use by 1975.
”
Navy Delphi Panel
1969
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“
In Dec. 1995 computers
with 1,000 processors
will do most of the
scientific processing.
”
Danny Hillis
1990 (1 paper or 1 company)
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“
A 50 X LISP machine
“
A 1,000 node multiprocessor
”
Tom Knight, Symbolics
”
Gordon Bell, Encore
DARPA, 1985
Strategic Computing Initiative (SCI)
 All of ~20 HPCC projects failed!
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Bell Prize winners 1987-1997




Speedup:
2000X
Moore’s law:
100X
Spend more:
2X
ECL  CMOS:
10X
Teraflops
100 Gigaflops
10 Gigaflops
Gigaflops
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“
Petaflops by 2010
”
DOE
Accelerated Strategic
Computing Initiative (ASCI)
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“
1997-2010: Over a
Petaflops is possible
”
Gordon Bell, ACM 1997




Moore’s Law
100-450x
Spend more ($100M  $500M)
5x
Centralization of centers
3x
Commoditization (competition)
3x
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Parallel processing is a
constant distance away.
“
“
Our vision ... is a system of millions
of hosts… in a loose confederation.
”
Users will have the illusion of a very
powerful desktop computer through
which they can manipulate objects.
”
Grimshaw, Wulf, et al
CACM Jan. 1997
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Predictions are easy…
especially about parallelism.
Doing is hard.
Predictions about
parallelism were risky…
now they are predictable.
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“
“
There will always be plenty of things to
compute ... With millions of people doing
complicated things.
”
memex … stores all his books, records,
and communications, and ... can be
consulted with speed and flexibility
”
“ Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia ”
“ Speech to text ”
Head mounted camera, dry photography
“
”
Vannevar Bush c1945
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Steve Mann
in
Cyberspace
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Moore’s Law is based on data
and understanding.
Faith in science
and a vision
can be used as a
predictor…
but being Vannevar Bush
and being really lucky
helps!
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Predicting with data
when change is exponential
Exponentials let you predict
anything you want.
But beware of how you use them!
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1. We get more
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2. New overtakes old
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3. Things get cheaper
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4. Newer & cheaper wins?
Old
Old
New
New
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“
If we couldn’t predict
the Web,
what good are we?
”
Bob Lucky, Vice President
Bellcore, 1995
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Exponentials
change everything
… you can’t see ‘em coming!
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Internetters growth
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
‘95
World Population
extrapolated at 1.6% per year
Internet Growth
extrapolated at 98% per year
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‘98
‘99
‘00
‘01
‘02
‘03
‘04
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Internetters growth
10000
World Population
TVs & Phones
1000
“1 Gp by 2000”
Negroponte
PCs
100
Internetters
10
‘95
‘96
‘97
‘98
‘99
‘00
‘01
‘02
‘03
‘04
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Computing and
communication predictions:
processing, memory, and
networks
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EDSAC
(c1949)
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Extrapolation from 1950s:
20-30% growth per year
Tera
Giga
Processing
Mega
Kilo
1
1947
1957
1967
1977
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2007
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Extrapolation from 1950s:
20-30% growth per year
Tera
Giga
Storage
Backbone
Processing
Memory
??
Mega
Kilo
1
1947
Telephone Service
17% / year
1957
1967
1977
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2007
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Microprocessor performance
100 G
Peak
Advertised
Performance
(PAP)
Real Applied
Performance
(RAP)
41% Growth
10 G
Giga
100 M
10 M
Moore’s
Law
Mega
Kilo
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
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Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year
60%=
Exaops
1.E+21
1.E+18
40%=
Petaops
1.E+15
20%=
Teraops
1.E+12
1.E +9
1.E+6
1995
2005
2015
2025
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2035
2045
New overtakes old
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Processor performance
1000
100
10
Bipolar
processors
9000
RISC shift
1
VAX
0.1
CMOS
microprocessor
0.01
1970
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
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1990
Things get cheaper
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Computers by price are stable.
Lower priced computers form!
new models come
at constant price
and increased
effectiveness
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Newer & cheaper wins?
Old
Old
New
New
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“The mainframe is dead!
… and for sure this time!”
P
R
I
C
E
Mainframe
Server
PC
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Predictable computers

The network computer

System-on-a-chip industry

Home Area Network

Body Area Network:
“on body”, “Guardian Angel”
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CMU wearable computers
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Medtronics
Implanted
Cardioplastic
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4 Experts Predict Bionics
Wired, February 1997

Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005

Bionic Limbs 2013

Artificial Vision 2040

Bionic Person (unlikely)
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Observations on predicting

Existence proofs are essential,
otherwise it’s faith and luck.

Numbers and data are our friends.

Bet on predictors who are grounded,
intuitive, imaginative, and lucky.

Because it could, doesn’t mean it will.

It’s usually just the economics,
stupid!
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Everything will be in
cyberspace
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GORDON BELL
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