Transcript International Forum on Monitoring National Development: Issues and Challenges Beijing, People’s Republic of China September 2011 Bernard Williams Assistant Statistician International Accounts and Financial Statistics Branch Macroeconomics.

International Forum on Monitoring National
Development: Issues and Challenges
Beijing, People’s Republic of China
September 2011
Bernard Williams
Assistant Statistician
International Accounts and Financial Statistics Branch
Macroeconomics and Integration Group
Australian Bureau of Statistics
1
The ABS
• … is Australia’s official national statistical agency.
• … has the authority to conduct statistical
collections.
• … has obligations to publish and disseminate
compilations and analyses of statistical
information, and to maintain the confidentiality of
information.
• …ensures formulation, and compliance with,
standards for the carrying out by official bodies of
operations for statistical purposes.
2
Use of Standards in Australia
• The ABS is a strong contributor to the
development of international standards
e.g.
– 2008 System of National Accounts
(2008SNA)
– Balance of Payments Manual version 6
(BPM6).
3
Use of Standards in Australia
(continued)
• International standards are the starting point.
• Departures from standards must be:
– few in number & demonstrate a significant benefit or
avoidance of an unwarranted cost
– carried through to all accounts/statistics
– enable a straightforward reconciliation with the
standard where feasible
– implemented after extensive consultation and
publicity.
4
Measuring Development
• Well structured and coherent set of
macroeconomic statistics are essential
– e.g. by participating in the International
Comparison Program.
Measuring Development
(continued)
• International organisations should ensure
standards are fit for purpose, scalable and
reasonabe to implement.
– SNA Friends of the Chair Group trying to
understand barriers preventing earlier
adoption of revised standards e.g. 1993SNA
2008SNA.
Measuring Development
(continued)
• Additional measures can extend the core
set of macroeconomic statistics but must
be coherent
– e.g. SEEA
GDP
• A measure of market production useful in
managing the macroeconomy.
• It is well known but its limitations as a
measure of overall progress are not well
understood.
• Need to also consider measures of
income, consumption and household
wealth.
Data needs of Australian
Commonwealth Departments
• Timeliness
• Coherence (consistency with other
information, both ABS and non-ABS)
• Reliability
• Compatibility with foreign data
• Information to assist interpretation
• Easy electronic access to data upon
release.
Data needs of Australian Com’lth
Departments (continued)
• Key datasets included in IMF’s SDDS:
– National accounts
– BoP and IIP
– Consumer and Producer Prices
– Labour market
– Government operations and debt
– Merchandise trade
– Population estimates.
Data needs of Australian Com’lth
Departments (continued)
• Also require:
– Distributional data
– Regional data
• These datasets require many high quality
inputs.
The Australian Treasury’s
wellbeing framework
• Five dimensions:
– Freedom and opportunity
– Consumption possibilities
– Distribution
– Risk
– Complexity.
The Australian Treasury’s
wellbeing framework (continued)
• Most policy reforms involve trade-offs
within or between the dimensions.
– These trade-offs can be complex and
multidimensional.
– Decisions ultimately made by the political
process.
The relationship with one agency
Data collection
- ABS censuses & surveys
- Surveys by others, HILDA
Statistical
advice
data
definitions,
units rules,
class’ns,
standards,
data quality.
International
practices
- administrative collections, ATO, APRA,
Customs …
Data integration & analysis by the ABS
Data integration & analysis by the
Agency
Policy analysis by the Agency
Analytical
frameworks, data
requirements
Modelling frameworks integrate many series
Benchmark data
Economic &
demographic
projections to
2050
Input-output tables
Government Finance
Labour Force
Demography
Energy supply & use
State & Territory
regional
disaggregation of
national
aggregates
Model
benchmark
data base
Supported by
historical trends
data on:
- Demography
- Productivity
- Terms of trade
- Labour market …