Transcript UNECE Workshop on Short-Term Statistics (STS) and Seasonal Adjustment 14 – 17 March 2011, Astana, Kazakhstan Round Table Current State of Seasonal Adjustment in Countries/

UNECE Workshop on Short-Term Statistics (STS)
and Seasonal Adjustment
14 – 17 March 2011, Astana, Kazakhstan
Round Table
Current State of Seasonal
Adjustment in Countries/
Armenia
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal
adjustment?
•
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If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•
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Lack of methodology and experience in seasonal adjustment
Future plans of your office?
•
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-
Are there problems or challenges?
•
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Seasonal adjustments are not implemented
To study methodology and get training, improve short-term statistics
and introduce seasonal adjustment
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
To get information about international experience in short-term
statistics, methodology of the seasonal adjustment to allow carrying out
seasonal adjustment in our country
UNECE Statistical Division
2
Azerbaijan
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal
adjustment?
•
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If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•
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No methodological explanations, not staff available for seasonal
adjustment
Future plans of your office?
•

Seasonally adjusts about 15 indicators, not published
Are there problems or challenges?
•

SA work began in 2003, X12-ARIMA and Econometric Views are used
Implementation and publication of seasonally adjusted data 2011 via
Demetra
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
To get theoretical knowledge and practical skills sufficient for
improvement works in this field in accordance to international standards
UNECE Statistical Division
3
Belarus
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
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment?
• For the first time, GDP was seasonally adjusted for 1992-1999. X-12ARIMA is used for seasonal adjustment.
If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
• STS indicators are currently not seasonally adjusted because of lack of
base indices at constant prices. Quarterly GDP is adjusted and
published in English and Russian.
Are there problems or challenges?
• There are problems with registration of new products.
Future plans of your office?
• Quarterly GDP will further be seasonally adjusted.
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
• As industrial production indices are not seasonally adjusted in Belarus,
it would be useful and helpful to get consultation and recommendations
on making adjustments and use of relevant software products.
• To study experience of other countries on seasonal adjustment.
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
4
China





Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment?
• SA work began in 2010, NBS-SA is used. NBS-SA is seasonal
adjustment software supported by National Bureau of Statistics of
China, which based on X-13-ARIMA-SEATS.
If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
• 4 indicators are seasonally adjusted, including Quarterly GDP,
Industrial production index, Investment in fixed assets, Total retail sales
of consumer goods. But they are not published.
Are there problems or challenges?
• Not enough experience, and quality of original data need to be
improved since these data are not collected discretely.
Future plans of your office?
• Publish the 4 indicators in the early future.
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
• -
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
5
Georgia
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
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

Please describe your experience with seasonal adjustment?
• Started in 2006 when the NSO with an international expert compiled
quarterly time series of industrial production indices based on 2001,
and seasonally adjusted them using TRAMO/SEATS Demetra
If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
• The same method used with National Accounts indicators like GDP,
household consumption expenditure etc
• NA indicators not published, used only for analytical purposes
Are there problems or challenges?
• Taking into account national holidays and other national features
• Knowledge of other countries’ practices and international methodology
Future plans of your office?
• To publish seasonally adjusted series, to improve the quality of
seasonal adjustment and cooperation with UNECE will be important
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
• Increase the knowledge in the methodology of seasonal adjustment
• Better understanding of other countries’ practices
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
6
Kazakhstan

Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment?
• The Center for Economic Analysis “RAKURS”, established
in early
2009, undertook analysis of short-term economic statistics, and of
seasonal adjustment of quarterly GDP. X-12-ARIMA software is used.
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If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
• Quarterly GDP is seasonally adjusted and published.
Are there problems or challenges?
• National calendar is not used, as software does not include
it. There is
also an issue of direct vs. indirect aggregation of seasonally adjusted
data (e.g. adjustment of various sectors or the whole GDP)

Future plans of your office?
• Plans to adjust GDP
by expenditure approach, but there are some
issues with quality. There are plans to improve the current SA method
used.

Your expectations towards the Workshop?
• To improve the SA method used
by RAKURS and to clarify some
technical issues while undertaking analysis of short-term statistics.
Also, to learn more international standards and procedures.
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
7
Kyrgyzstan
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal
adjustment?
•

If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•
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Availability of software and instructions mainly in English only creates
difficulties for wider use
Future plans of your office?
•
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Seasonally adjusts industrial production index and quarterly GDP at the
aggregated level, not published
Are there problems or challenges?
•
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“Demetra” has been used in experimental calculations
Future plans to carry out seasonal adjustment for quarterly GDP and
industrial production index by economic activities
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
Be familiar with methods and methodology for implementing seasonal
adjustment to analyze obtained results.
UNECE Statistical Division
8
Republic of Moldova
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal
adjustment?
•

If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•

Yes
Future plans of your office?
•

Industrial statistics are not seasonally adjusted yet
Are there problems or challenges?
•
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Very little experience in seasonal adjustment
To seasonally adjust industrial production
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
Gain experience and learn how to do seasonal adjustment
UNECE Statistical Division
9
Russian Federation
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment?
•
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If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•
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The end-point problem, the optimal level of aggregation, elimination of seasonal
and calendar effects, the problem of the difference between the quarterly
seasonally adjusted components and the annual value
Future plans of your office?
•
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GDP, industrial production indices, agricultural production, the volume of
construction, commissioning of residential buildings, passenger public
transport, turnover in wholesale and retail trade, investment in fixed assets and
real disposable income. Information can be found at: www.gks.ru
Are there problems or challenges?
•

Since 1998, the Federal State Statistics Service has carried out seasonal
adjustment of key macroeconomic indicators, mainly X-12ARIMA (version
0.1.2) is used and for the indices of industrial production DEMETRA 2.2 (was
decided in mid-2010)
To start using the software package Demetra more widely
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
To share the experience in seasonal adjustment and its publication with
international organizations and national statistical offices. Discussions on major
issues related to the different methods.
UNECE Statistical Division
10
Mongolia
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal
adjustment?
•
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If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•
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Lack of experience
Future plans of your office?
•
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Pilot estimation for seasonal adjustment has been carried out, not
published
Are there problems or challenges?
•
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Lack of experience in seasonal adjustment.
Estimate the seasonally adjusted data such as macro economic main
indicators and publishing statistical yearbooks, bulletins and other
documents.
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
To develop the recommendation of seasonal adjustment methodology.
UNECE Statistical Division
11
Tajikistan
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment?
• Seasonal adjustment carried out and published for freight/passenger
transport and for the volume of paid services. Publication in Tajik and
Russian.
If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
• Pilot estimation for seasonal adjustment has been carried out, not
published
Are there problems or challenges?
• Inexperienced staff in seasonal adjustment, using current seasonal
adjustment programs seen as too time-consuming.
Future plans of your office?
•

xxx
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
xxx
UNECE Statistical Division
12
Turkmenistan

Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal
adjustment?
•
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If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•

-
Future plans of your office?
•
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Seasonally adjusted data are not produced, nor published
Are there problems or challenges?
•
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Our office does not seasonally adjust data.
To get knowledge about the methods and how to use them
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
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To hear about the experiences of other countries in this area of work
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
13
Ukraine
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal
adjustment?
•
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If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•
•
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A seminar on seasonal adjustment in April 2010 gave impetus to start
work in this direction in STS; system knowledge needed, no trained
staff.
Future plans of your office?
•
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Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP at a disaggregated level
STS indicators are not adjusted for seasonality
Are there problems or challenges?
•
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Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP have been published since 2004
(with X-11-ARIMA)
Seasonal adjustment of the index of industrial production
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
To obtain the desired theoretical and practical experience (for the
adjustment procedure and answers to specific questions).
UNECE Statistical Division
14
Uzbekistan
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Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal
adjustment?
•
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If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?
•
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More experience needed, methods for discrete data to be studied
Future plans of your office?
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Seasonal adjustment are not published
Are there problems or challenges?
•
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Seasonal adjustment is currently not done
Next step is to study of international experience, guidelines of
international organizations and how to introduce SA in Uzbekistan
Your expectations towards the Workshop?
•
March 2011
Gaining experience and applying it in compilation of statistical
UNECE Statistical Division
15