Transcript Framing the Debate American Dream Coalition September 24, 2010 Orlando, Florida Christopher W. Walker Dulles Corridor Users Group Washington, DC.

Framing the Debate
American Dream Coalition
September 24, 2010
Orlando, Florida
Christopher W. Walker
Dulles Corridor Users Group
Washington, DC
How to Sell Mobility Angel Dust
• 1. Do the analysis. Use proper metrics.
• 2. Make sure all the alternatives are
considered. Include no build, distributed
network car sharing, offline BRT.
• 3. Rank order the alternatives. Make sure:
• --projects exceed cost of capital
• --scoresheet– which alternative wins?
• 4. Now forget about the numbers.
The Missing Analytical Variable
• Time—our most valuable resource
• Personalized transportation twice as time
efficient as collective transportation
• -Walking up to ¼ mile
• -Bicycles up to 2 miles
• -Cars up to 250 miles
• Seminal question: why would anyone go to the
expense of owning and paying for private
transportation when public transportation is
available and subsidized? Answer:
Advocacy for Land Use Freedom and
Mobility
• 1. Politics= who gets what, when, where
• 2. By definition, politics is apart from the market
economy. Default process is corrupt.
• 3. When you realize logic plays no part, it all
makes perfect sense.
• 4. Cost is the benefit. Cost the enemy in the
private sector, the benefit in the public sector.
• 5. Rail is much more expensive, and % skimmed
by political class is much higher than for road
projects. Often limited open bidding, free from
public procurement laws.
The Cost is the Benefit
• Example: Dulles Toll Road, cost all-in in 1984 for
40 lane miles was $53 million. Speed: 60 mph
• Dulles Silver Line, 2010, $7.8 billion for 44 track
miles. Speed: 25 mph
• Question: How much went for fees (legal,
architectual, engineering, underwriting) for
Dulles Silver Line project?
• Homework: the Power Broker, biography of
Robert Moses written by Robert Caro.
• Make sure annual deficits and interest costs are
added into the total cost.
Opposition
• 1. Traditionally much less than for rail than for
highways. We can help change this.
• 2. History of legal challenges to highway
megaprojects, starting with Overton Park case in
1971.
• 3. Ability to pass on high costs to future
generations:
• --bonding thru Economic Development
Authorities
• --revenue bonds with zero coupon/capital
apprecation features
• --ribbon cut today, pay tomorrow.
Dealing with Preconceptions-I
• 1. In public meetings, the decisionmakers have
• --already made up their minds. Has the local
transportation dept. done an analysis?
• 2. Typically deal with lawyer or liberal arts
types—
• --assume innumeracy
• --remember how local politics is funded.
• --Document inaccuracies of opponents
• “System X will reduce congestion.” Capture this assertion on
tape and put it up on YouTube. Carry a camcorder to public
meetings.
Dealing with Preconceptions- II
• 3. Write out your presention in jounalistic style
and make sure local press gets copies. Daily press
has fired its local reporters and fact checkers.
Make sure your online presence is up to date and
reachable via the search engines.
• 4. Sloganize your campaign– “Fairfax’ Big Dig”.
• --Local press says, “numbers not as bad as
Big Dig, but…
• 5. Beware of “transit increases land values.”
Attack this statement, not true. Typical assertion
of benefited landowners, rest of us pay.
Tea Party Organizational Advice
• Pain of losing next election only motivator.
• Zoning decisions (land use, density) is mostly
arbitrary. Planning use of private land makes no
sense since public can’t even properly plan public
space. Lots of skeletons to exhume if our
legislator doesn’t go our way.
• Don’t threaten, execute. “Tax and spend.”
• Big Dig aftermath: www.bigdigbaker.com
• Every silly or untrue statement made by a public
official will survive to haunt forevermore.
www.archive.org. Is it laziness, stupidity, or
corruption?
Legal Tracking
• Public Interest litigation much less expensive than
it used to be. Electronic filing… PACER SYSTEM.
Cut and paste.
• Open Source litigation. Just need one lawyer
licensed in a particular court. Collaborative
software– google docs etc.
• Rail projects just as vulnerable to environmental
Impact challenges than road projects– a section 6
economics study is required.
• If we can’t defeat, at least we can delay.
The Facts
• Facts are facts, but perception is reality.
• All the facts we need are available from the
promoters, generated at public expense.
• Should understand Freedom of Information
Act. Federal and local.
• Who is getting the money? This type of data is
closely guarded. Who’s NOT on the payroll?
• Limits of comprehension– pick out 3 key
points.
How to deal with Lies
• “Higher property values, obesity, pollution, jobs,
sustainability, useful alternatives to roads,
capacity equal to x highway lanes, etc.”
• Bent Flyvjberg, Megaprojects and Risk: urban rail
projects only off the ground by lying.
• Ask for source of misstatements. Opponents
don’t have any valid ones! Our side provides
references.
• Geo Washington legacy.
• Who is the patsy?
Limits of Embarrassment?
• Suburban BRT, Suburban Rail, Urban Rail
• A. Southern DC commuter shed, $51 million
upfront for 35,000 boardings via distributed BRT.
Small annual deficits.
• B. Dulles Rail, $7.8 billion for 43,000 new system
riders in 2030. Fixed guideway, mostly above
grade. $120 million annual operating deficit.
• C. Second Avenue subway, NYC. $1 billion per
new station (4), phase one only, tunnel.
• Ratio of 1:100:300.
• Which areas are growing?
Are we winning or losing?
• Right now the scoreboard shows us behind.
But: we have momentum.
• We will always be outspent.
• In US, by design, regular revolutions– only we call
them elections. Determined minorities can get
their way-- counterProgressivism
• Mad as hell and won’t take it any more.
• A new era of fiscal responsibility is dawning.
• It’s not over till the fat lady sings– cf Big Dig
Let’s work together
• If you want to promote open source citizen
transportation legal advocacy for your issue,
contact me.
• My legal efforts to date are available from any
browser if you open up a PACER account (8 cents
per page).
• Chris Walker, JD, MBA
• Dullescorridorusersgroup.com
• [email protected]