Transcript Predictions of the Future of Online Learning in Higher Education Curt Bonk, Professor Indiana University [email protected] http://php.indiana.edu/~cjbonk.

Predictions of the Future of Online
Learning in Higher Education
Curt Bonk, Professor
Indiana University
[email protected]
http://php.indiana.edu/~cjbonk
I Tried Getting Inspiration
What about the Catalog of Tomorrow?
Could I steal
some ideas?
Thirty-two Trends Affecting Distance Education:
An Informed Foundation for Strategic Planning
(Howell, Williams, & Lindsay, 2003, Online Journal of Distance
Learning Administration, 6(3), Fall, 2003
Student and Faculty Issues:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Students want qualifications, small modules, programs
Faculty roles are shifting (more nontenure-track in DE).
Faculty support for DE is a key issue.
Many want reduced workload or increased $$$.
Most DE is now Web-based; increases 40% per year
Instruction is becoming more learner-centered (SDL)
Might I borrow a timeline?
The End of the PC Era, Newsweek, Nov 24, 2003, p. 57
How about creating a survey?
Sent to MERLOT.org members on last
week of November, 2003
• Received 355 responses
• 55% female
• 70% lecturers and professors
• 20% administrators or tech support
• 50% public colleges; 16% private; 23%
community colleges; 4% online colleges
Ten Trends for Educa Berlin
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Blended Learning is All Learning
Enrollments in Certificates & Short Programs
Inc. Focus on Instructor Training & Rewards
Demand for Freelance Instructors Grows
Course Interactivity & Performance are Vital
to Accreditation
Reality Teaching & Learning, Not Reality TV
Course Quality Issues Become Pervasive
The Evil House of Cheat Will Not Go Away
Novel Educational Partnerships Emerge
Educational Technology Outpaces Theory
Trend 1. Blended Learning is All
Learning
Percent of Student Learning that is Fully Online
Percent of Student Learning that is Blended
80
Percentof
ofRespondents
Respondents
Percent
70
70
60
60
50
50
2003
2003
2006
2006
2013
2013
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
None
None
20% or
less
20%of
or
student
less of
learning
student
learning
21 to 40% 41 to 60% 61 to 80% 81 to 100%
of21%
student
student
student
of81%
student
to of41%
to of61%
to
to
learning
learning
learning
learning
40% of
60% of
80% of
100%
of
student
learning
student
learning
student
learning
student
learning
Percent of Respondents
Projected Growth Areas for Respondent Organizations
During Next Few Years
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Supplement to Alternative to
face-to-face
face-to-face
classes
course(s)
(students
choose one or
the other)
The only
option (no
face-to-face
course
options or
meetings)
Alternated
with face-toface class
meetings
(some weeks
are online.
some face-toface)
We do not
plan to utilize
online
instruction
The Sloan Consortium
(2003). Sizing the Opportunity: The Quality and
Extent of Online Education in the U.S., 2002 and 2003
http://www.sloan-c.org/resources/sizing_opportunity.pdf
Why the term blended?
(Osguthorpe & Graham, 2003, Blended Learning
Environments: Definitions and Directions)
• “Hybrid is the interbreeding of two
different species of animals or plants to
create a new species” (i.e., a mongrel)
• “Blended focuses on the mingling
together in ways that lead to a wellbalanced combination” (i.e., to mix)
Blended Learning Defined: The Sloan
Consortium
(2003). Sizing the Opportunity: The Quality and Extent of Online
Education in the U.S., 2002 and 2003
http://www.sloan-c.org/resources/sizing_opportunity.pdf
Indiana Univ (8 campuses): Fall 2003
Students: 99,693 loaded; 77,407 logged in
Faculty: 7,461 loaded; 5,532 logged in
Courses: 22,974 loaded; 7332 active
Enterprise Oncourse Growth
90%
80%
73%
70%
65%
Percentage
60%
58%
50%
44%
40%
27%
29%
72%
65%
47%
32%
30%
21%
20%
0%
79%
38%
30%
10%
43%
62%
77%
26%
28%
20%
16%
11%
7%
4%
3%
Spr99
Fal99
Spr00
Fal00
Spr01
Fal01
Spr02
Fal02
Semesters
Courses
facultyX2
StudentsX2
Sp03
Fa03
Illinois Virtual Campus (Fall 2003 Newsletter)
Ivan Lach, [email protected]
http://www.ivc.illinois.edu/Newsletter/03_10/enrollment.htm
• 68 Illinois institutions
(public and private, 2year and 4-year)
• 3,951 course sections
in spr ‘03
• 50,125 students,
spring ’03 (24% inc.)
• 125,074 online
students during year
(54% increase)
• 34,399 for summer ’04
(45% increase)
http://www.ivc.illinois.edu/ (Oakley, 2003)
Karen Lazenby (2003), Univ of Pretoria
Per Herman van der Merwe, Dec 2, 2003,
this will likely grow to 20,000 this year.
Trend 2. Enrollments in Certificates
and Short Programs
Degrees, Programs, and Credentials Currently Offered Online By
Degrees, Programs, and Credentials Your Organization will
Your Organization
Pecent
of Respondents
Percent
of Respondents
Offer Online During the Next Few Years
60
70
50
60
40
50
30
40
20
30
10
20
100
Certificates
Recertification
Certificates
Recertification
0
Associate
degrees
Associate
degrees
Undergraduate
degrees
Master's
Exec educ &
degrees (not
MBA
MBA)
Undergraduate
Master's
Exec educ &
degrees
degrees (not
MBA
MBA)
Doctoral
degrees
Doctoral
degrees
Other
Other
SUNY Learning Network
(Burks Oakley, 2003)
Growth in online degree and
certificate programs
70
60
50
40
Certificates
Associate
Baccalaureate
Graduate Degree
30
20
10
0
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
"02-03"
Trend 3: Increased Focus on
Teacher Training and Rewards
Online Teaching Certificates
• University of Wisconsin:
– 12-18 month self-paced certificate
program, 20 CEUs, $2,500-$3,185
– Integrates into practical
experiences
– Cater to busy working
professionals
– Open enrollment and self-paced
• Illinois Online Network’s (ION)
“Master Online Teacher”
– 4 core courses, 1 elective course,
plus a supervised practicum
Factors Most Significantly Impacting Success of Online
Programs in Next Few Years
Percent of Respondents
25
20
15
10
5
0
Joining a
consortium
Improvements
in
technologies
Marketing
Monetary
support
Instructor
pedagogical
competency
Rigorous
accreditation
process
Instructor
technical
competency
Other
Years of Experience with Technology, Blended Learning,
and Fully Online Learning
45
Percents of Respondents
40
35
30
Technology Integration
Experience
Blended Learning Experience
25
20
Fully Online Experience
15
10
5
0
No
Experience
1-2 Years
3-5 Years
6-10 Years
10+ Years
Percent of Respondents
Typical Online Instructor Training in the
Year 2010
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Little or
no
training
Extensive Extensive Specific
internal
external teaching
training
training degrees
Other
Skills Needed to Teach Online in 2010
70
Percent of Respondents
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Course
Developer
Facilitator or Instructor or
Moderator
Lecturer
Program
Coord or
Developer
Student
Counselor or
Advisor
Subject
Matter
Expert
Technology
Trainer
Other
100 100
90 90
Percent of Respondents
Precent of Respondents
Instructional
Approaches
that
Respondents
Consideredas
Less
Instructional
Approaches
that
Selected
by Respondents
Among
Likley to Become
More
Widely
UsedWidely Used
the Four Strategies
Likley to
Become
More
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Exploration Modeling
Coaching or
or discovery mentoring
ofGuided
the
learning
solution process
Socratic
questioning
teacher- Group
StudentSimulations
Discussion Lecturing
Case-based orProblemgenerated or role play
strategies
based
problem
directed
activities
content
learning
solving and
collab
Trend 4: Greater Reliance on
Freelance Instructors
Do You Plan to Teach as a Freelance Instructor in
Have You
Taught as a Freelance Instructor in
the Future (blended or fully online)
the Past (blended or fully online)
PercentofofRespondents
Respondents
Percent
70
90
80
50
70
60
40
50
30
40
30
20
20
10
10
00
60
no
no
yes
yes
Global Professor Ratings
Trend 5: Course Interactivity &
Performance are Vital to Accreditation
Area where Most Significant Pedagogical
Improvements will Occur During the Coming
Decade
40
35
Percent of Respondents
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Online
collaboration
and virtual
teaming
Creative
thinking and
idea
generation
Critical
Student
thinking and motivation and
idea
engagement
evaluation
Other
Online Performances
Simulatives, Narratives, etc.
Are Diverse Student Needs Being Met?
Percent of Respondents
Learning Styles Address by Online Learning in 2003,
2006, and 2013
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hands-on or
Tactile
Learners
Reflective or
Observational
Learners
Verbal or
Auditory
Learners
Visual or
Nonverbal
Learners
Trend 6: Reality Teaching and Learning
(Andrew Revkin, New York Times, May 25, 2003)
7. Course Quality Issues Become
Pervasive (need for quality control
police)
Concerns About Legitimate Degrees Increase
($7-$30/page, http://www.syllabus.com/ January, 2002, Phillip
Long, Plagiarism: IT-Enabled Tools for Deceit?)
• http://www.fakedegrees.com/
• http://www.myodegrees.com/
• http://www.boxfreeconcepts.com/magicmill/
• http://www.blackmarket-press.com/
• http://www.bogusphd.com/
• http://www.coastalretreat.com/degrees/funny.html
• www.counterfeitlibrary.com/cl/qual.asp
The Sloan Consortium: Institution Portion
(2003). Sizing the Opportunity: The Quality and Extent of Online
Education in the U.S., 2002 and 2003
http://www.sloan-c.org/resources/sizing_opportunity.pdf
• 60% of academic leaders agree that faculty will
accept the legitimacy of online education
• 57% believe learning outcomes same or better
than FTF
• 75% expect to be as good in next 3 yrs; 1/3 think
better
• Everyone thinking the quality is on the rise
Online Learning Course Quality Compared to
Traditional Instruction
Percent of Respondents
70
60
50
40
2003
30
2006
2013
20
10
0
Inferior Course
Quality
Same Course Quality
Superior Course
Quality
Student Outcomes in Online Learning Compared to
Traditional Instruction.
Percent of Respondents
60
50
40
2003
30
2006
2013
20
10
0
Inferior Student
Outcomes
Same Student
Outcomes
Superior Student
Outcomes
Areas to Focus on to Improve Online Student Success
Percent of Respondents
25
20
15
10
5
0
Additional
technology
training
Tracking of
learning in
CMS
Evaluation of
achievement
Measures of
online
learning
readiness
Orientation
Training
sessions and students selftutorials
regulate their
learning
Other
Trend 8. The Evil House of Cheat Will Not Go Away
($7-$30/page, http://www.syllabus.com/ January, 2002,
Phillip Long, Plagiarism: IT-Enabled Tools for Deceit?)
• http://www.turnitin.com/ (software, $100,
free 30 day demo/trial)
• http://www.copycatch.freeserve.co.uk/
(free in UK)
• http://www.canexus.com/ (Eve2 software;
essay verification engine, $19.95)
• http://www.plagiarism.org/ (resource)
• http://www.academicintegrity.org/ (assoc.)
• http://sja.ucdavis.edu/avoid.htm (guide)
Plagiarizing Plagiarism
(June 8, 2003; Dartmouth Review)
• “Michael Heberling—an author at the
Chronicle and president of Baker
College for Graduate Studies—read an
article written in Syllabus magazine that
looked remarkably like his own piece.
The subject of the plagiarist’s piece:
plagiarism.”
• the offending author, a graduate
student, apologized for any passages
accidentally cut-and-pasted into her
own article. Her excuse: ‘deadline
pressure.’
NSSE: The College Student Report
(National Survey of Student Engagement (2003, Nov). Converting
data into action: Expanding the boundaries of institutional
improvement. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Center for
Postsecondary Research.
• 83% of HE students frequently
use Web for their classes
• 80% of HE student instructors
report that instructors often
require computer conferencing
• 87% of peers cut and pasted
from Web without citations
Trend 9: Many Novel Forms of
Online Ed Partnerships
“An Internet gateway through
which learners, employers,
and learning providers are
drawn together into a dynamic
partnership that creates value
for learners, enhances
economic development, and
engages institutions in
meeting the lifelong learning
needs of twenty-first century
learners” (2001, xvii).
Possible Priorities
1. Address a clear learner need
2. Leverage resources; share
infrastructure
3. Respond to new markets; improve
competitiveness
4. Enhance access and pedagogy of
learning
Center for Ed Tech Interoperability
Standards, Nov. 24, 2003
http://www.cetis.ac.uk/content2/20031124150257
http://www.sakaiproject.org/sakaiproject/
Trend 10: Technology Continues to
Outpace Theory
Kevin Kluse, November 2003, CLO, Tech Trends Impacting
E-Learning
• Trend 1: More for less (low end PC in 2017
will cost $150 and come with 8 GB of RAM
and 1.8 Terabytes of storage space)
• Trend 2: Broadband (from 25 to 68 million in
U.S. by 2008)
• Trend 3: Wireless Access (time and place of
need instead of time and desk)
• Trend 4: soon have in palms a
supercomputer that can make phone calls
and surfs the Web at very high speeds
A Brain Charger: the Ultimate PDA Accessory
By Michael Kanellos, Staff Writer, CNET News.com
Nov 19, 2003
E-Learning Technologies of the
Future?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Assistive Technologies
& Talking Computers
Blogs and Online
Diaries
Digital Portfolios
Electronic Books
Online Communities
and Learning Portals
Intelligent Agents
Online Exams and
Assessment
Online Games and
Simulations (Massive
Multiplayer Gaming)
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
Online Translation
Tools & Language Lrng
Pedagogical
Courseware
Peer-to-Peer
Collaboration
Reusable Learning
Objects
Videostreaming, IP
Videoconferencing
Virtual Worlds/Reality
Wearable Computing
Wireless Tech: Tablet
PCs, Handheld Devices
Technologies Expected to Least Impact the Delivery of
Online Learning During the Next Five Years
20
Percent of Respondents
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Language
Translation
Wearable
Tech
Online
Language
Support
Electronic
Books
Virtual
Worlds
Tablet PCs
Intelligent
Agents
Technologies Expected to Most Impact the Delivery of
Online Learning During the Next Five Years
Percent of Respondents
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Digital
Portfolios
Assistive
Tech
Digital
Libraries
Simulations Peer-to-Peer
and Games
Collab
Wireless
Tech
Reusable
Content (i.e..
Learning)
Objects
• Journal
• Repository
• Place to keep
notes
• Practice another
language
• And Wiki
programs allow
for comments
nd
20
10
0
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Percent
ofof
Respondents
Percent
Respondents
Technologies that will Most Greatly Impact the Deliver of Online
Current Online Technologies Used
Learning in Your Organization During the Next 5 Years
90
80 25
30
70 20
60
15
50
40 10
30 5
0
5. Instructor/Trainer Portals
8. Simulations: Virtual University
Administrator and SimuLearn)
in
en
to
r
g
&
Re
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sa
bl
e
d
ns
di
le
ar
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at
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at
io
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Percent of Respondents
Activities, Tools, and Resources that will Most
Influence Course Web Sites
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
14. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality
Avatars--representations
of people
Objects--representations of objects
Maps--the landscape which can be explored
Bots--artificial intelligence
15. Wearable Computing
Memory Glasses!!!
16. Wireless Technology
How will additional bandwidth help?
Potential Impact of Greater Bandwidth and Wireless
Connections
50
Percent of Respondents
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
International
collab
Networking
with field
experts
More use of
Use of
More use of 2interactive
multimedia
way video
simulations or presentations conferencing
games for
learning
Other
16. Tablet PCs Finally Taking Off
(Wired News, Sept 28, 2003)
• “And while Promisel said there will be a consumer
market for tablet PCs -- such as college students
taking them to class for note-taking -- what really
needs to happen for the tablet PC to take off is the
development of new software applications for
corporate customers. …predicts that in 2003, a total
of 500,000 tablet PCs will be sold around the globe,
which represents about 1 percent of the total
portable PC market…But, by 2007, IDC forecasts that
the tablet PC could account for well over 20 percent
of the portable market.”
So, which direction should you
go?