Transcript WATER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT: What’s the Right Amount to Spend? The Dawn of the Replacement Era -- The Nessie Curve -Main Replacement (Cumulative)16PVC DI Conc AC Spun.

WATER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT:
What’s the Right Amount to Spend?
The Dawn of the Replacement Era
-- The Nessie Curve -Main Replacement (Cumulative)
18
16
14
PVC
DI
10
Conc
8
AC
6
Spun CI
4
Pit CI
2
2095
2085
2075
2065
2055
2045
2035
2025
2015
0
2005
Millions
12
Nessie Sitings in North America
2095
2085
0
2075
0
2065
5
2055
5
2045
10
2035
15
2025
15
2015
20
$ Millions
20
2005
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
$ Millions
Replacement needs
are a demographic echo.
Anytown – Population 250,000
10
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
PCCP / AC
1970
1965
1960
PVC
1955
1950
1945
GIP
1940
1935
DIP
1930
1925
Spun CIP
1920
1915
1910
CIP
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
1870
Replacement Millions
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
$ Millions
Asset Management is fleet management.
Investment Profiles (By Material Type)
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
STL
Asset Investment Profile
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Fleet costs include
maintenance & replacement.
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
140.00
120.00
$ Millions
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
180.0
120.0
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
Pit Cast Iron >8"
100.0
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
80.0
35.00
60.0
30.00
40.0
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
$ Millions
25.00
20.0
1870
Replacement $M
140.0
11
6
1
0.00
160.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
140.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Replace 1%
per year.
120.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
140.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Replace the
oldest mains
first.
120.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
140.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Deferred
replacement
is bad.
120.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
120.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Replace ‘em
before
they break.
140.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
140.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Hold break
rates constant.
120.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
140.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Spend the same
as other utilities.
120.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
140.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Having a CIP
is asset
management.
120.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
140.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Our infrastructure
is in ruins;
it’s a crisis!
120.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implications
QUIZ:
True or false ?
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
120.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
We’ve got to
solve this
problem.
140.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implication:
Asset
Management is
imperative
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
120.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
The financial risk
is large – a threat
to sustainability
if unseen.
140.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implication:
Asset
Management is
imperative
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
120.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
If you can see
risks coming,
you can
manage them.
140.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implication:
Asset
Management is
imperative
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
120.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Continuous
improvement of
data for these
pictures is key.
140.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implication:
Asset
Management is
imperative
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
120.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Opportunities to
economize are
myriad; the
paybacks
are compelling.
140.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implication:
Asset
Management is
imperative
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
120.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Priorities are
clear – and
uniquely local to
each utility.
140.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0
Water Mains -- Original Investment Profile
Implication:
Asset
Management is
imperative
180.0
160.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1895
1890
1885
1880
1875
0.0
1870
Water Mains -- Replacement Projections
120.00
100.00
$ Millions
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
0.00
Water Mains -- Wear Out Cost Projections
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
Pit Cast Iron >8"
Pit 8" Cast Iron
Pit Cast Iron <8"
Ductile >8"
8" Ductile
Ductile <8"
Pre-Stressed Concrete
Steel
Spun Cast >8"
8" Spun Cast
Spun Cast <8"
Asbestos
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
0.00
1
Our job is to put
the right
processes in
place and
sustain them.
140.00
$ Millions
Replacement $M
140.0