Transcript THE OPTIMISING OF REGIONAL RADIOSONDE NETWORKS Oleg Pokrovsky Main Geophysical Observatory, Karbyshev str.7, St.

THE OPTIMISING OF REGIONAL
RADIOSONDE NETWORKS
Oleg Pokrovsky
Main Geophysical Observatory,
Karbyshev str.7, St. Petersburg, 194021,
Russian Federation
Outlines:
• (a)
Identify statistically homogeneous areas;
• (b) Calculate the statistical weights of the information
of each RAOB station ;
• (c) Derive an optimized network configuration for the
upper-air stations, including GUAN stations;
• (d) Calculate error fields for main meteorological
parameters (Z500, T500, U700, V700, relative air
humidity Q850 used in NWP models) related to the
optimized network configuration.
Approach
Kalman Filter (1)
where
where:
Kalman Filter (2)
Information model for network
y  p   A( p )  x    p 
(1)
p
x- true field; y-vector of measurements at network
 p  ( 1 ,...,  p ;  12 ,....,  2p ) :
 i  i  th _ site _ coordinate,  i2  measurement _ error
A(  p )
 x  { x
- observing system operator
1
 A T ( p )   
1
 A( p )} 1
- covariance matrix for LS (1)
Information Weights of Sites
F { }  F (  )  tr (  )
Statistical Invariant:
p
x
x
 p  ( 1 ,..,i 1 , i 1 ,., p ); i  i  th _ site _ is _ m issed
i
Information weight of i-th site
W ( i )  [ F ( p )  F ( p )] / tr ( x )
i
Optimization
Criteria function
-
F  F ( x )  F ( x ( p ))
Optimization:
 p  arg max{F ( x ( p ))}
p
Criteria examples:
1) A:
F  F ( x )  tr ( x )
2) D:
F  F ( x )  det( x )
Part 1
Siberian RAOB network of
Roshydromet
A set of RAOB stations presented in WMO list
долгота
20046
20069
80
20107
20292
20274
20353
21432
21504
20674
21647
20744
20891
21824
23205
23418
широта
22522 22550
60
26702
23472
23804
23921
23552
23933
24507
23884
24641
24944
24908
30054
27037
29263 29282
29572
29862
36096
24688
24959
24817
23955
27199
29231
28275
28225
26258 26298
28445
26477
27459
27612
27595
28661
29612
29634
28698
26781
28722
2770727730
29839
2796227995
27944
34009
35121
34122 34172
34247
25399
25400
24726
2282022845
24266
24343
23330
25173
25123
24125
22271
22217
26063
21982
21965
21946
23022
22113
31088
31004
25428
25551
25703
25563
25677
25954
25913
30230
30372
30309
31168
30935
30965
34560
31369
34880
34858
3701837054
32540
32061
31510
31736
31707
34731
32389
32618
29698 30521
30554
30692
30673
31300 31329
30635
30715
30758
32150
31873
31909
32215
32186
32165
31977
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Рис. . Карта схема полной аэрологической сети Росгидромета
180
25594
Soviet Time
Siberian RAOB configuration in 1970-1989
80
Latitude
70
60
50
40
80
90
100
110
120
130
Longitude
140
150
160
170
180
RAOB Problems After 1998
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Statistics: 1999:
4-7 sondes per day
2000: 10-12 sondes per day
2001:
16-19 sondes per day
2002:
22-24 sondes per day
BUT: main problem is absence of regularity:
1999: only 2 stations provided daily regular data
2002: only 15 stations provided daily regular
data
October, 1999
Долгота
80
1
70
Широта
8
22
6
60
28
31
31
27
31
30
29
25
50
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Рис. . Распределение радиозондов (станции, число запусков) на АТР (Октябрь 1999) в (00Z) -
Catastrophic Flood in Siberia
River Lena,
May, 2001
Persisted Atmospheric Circulation Regime
during February-May, 2001
Source: SATOB data
Classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (U850&V850) in Asia: class 2: 1999 (1-130 days)
80
60
40
20
0
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Z700 field anomaly,March-April, 2001
RAOB: OPTIMAL /MINIMAL NETWORK FOR RUSSIAN ASIA (after Pokrovsky, 2003)
20292
80
21432
20674
GUAN
70
Latitude
25042
24125
24266
GUAN
25954
29282
60
31168
30554
70414
32215
50
X
31873
40
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Longitude
150
160
170
180
190
РАЙОНИРОВАНИЕ АТР (СРОЧНЫЕ ДАННЫЕ)
Siberia RAOB Area Regioning
80
Latitude
70
60
50
40
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Longitude
140
150
160
170
Sufficient RAOB network
Долгота
80
20292
21432
20674
21824
24125
70
23330
Широта
23552
60
23472
24343
25400
24688
24507
24959
24817
24944
30054
31004
29282
28698
30554
25173
25563 25594
25954
25913
31168
36096
25042
25123
24266
2393323955
28225
21946
32389
32618
31369
32215
31510
50
31873
31977
32150
40
60
Рис.
80
100
120
140
160
180
. Достаточная аэрологическая сеть на АТР: 42 станции (информативность пропорциональна размеру зв
.
Optimal interpolation H500 RMS error field
Долгота
80
20292
105
21432
20674
21824
70
24125
23330
Широта
23552
24343
23472
29282
28225
25400
25173
25563
24688
24959
24817
24944
30054
31004
30554
25594
25954
32389
32618
45
31369
36096
85
65
25913
31168
28698
25042
25123
24266
24507
23933 23955
60
21946
32215
31510
50
31873
32150
25
31977
40
5
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
. Поле ошибок восстановления поля Н500 (м) по данным достаточной аэрологической сети АТР из 42 станц
Sonde stations provided profiles twice per day (0 Z and 12 Z) in January 2005
80
Latitude
22113
22217
22550
60
26063
24125
23330
23472
24959
27199
28445
28698 29634
25913
31004
30230
29572
32540
30758
34009
34560
34880
34858
31736
32150
31977
40
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Longitude
Siberian RAOB configuration provided everyday 0Z and 12Z profiles in January 2007
80
21946
70
24125
Latitude
23472
25400
24688
23955
60
29231
28275
2961229634
29839
50
24908
30054
29263 29282
30230
30372
30309
29572
29698
30554
29862
30715
30758
30935 30965
31088
25703
25913
32540
31736
31873
32150
40
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Longitude
140
150
160
170
180
190
Optimal interpolation H500 RMS error field
Responded to Jan-March, 2007, RAOB
105
ä î ëãî òà
95
80
85
21946
75
24125
ø è ðî òà
23472
25400
24688
60
23955
29231
24908
30054
2926329282
30230
30372
29572 30309
29612
29634
29698
30554
29839 29862
30715 30758
30935 30965
25703
65
31088 25913
55
32540
45
31736
31873
32150
35
40
80
100
120
140
160
180
25
ø è á î ê âî ññòàí î âëåí è ÿ ï î ëÿ Í 500 (ì ) ï î ä àí í û ì àýðî ëî ãè ÷åñêî é ñåòè ÀÒÐ è ç 34 ñòàí öè é (åæåä í åâí î ) â ÿí âàðå-ì àðòå 2007 ã.
15
5
Table. Comparison of the optimal and operational RAOB network
configurations
in Siberia with account for Z500 objective analysis error (m).
Contribution of
measurement
data in
covariance
matrix reduction
RAOB –40
(nonregular,
Jan-Mar,
2007)
RAOB-34
(Jan-Mar,
0Z&12Z,
2007)
RAOB-42
(Optimal
design)
Mean STD
(60-80 N)
58.7
57.6
27.8
Mean STD
(40-60 N)
42.3
46.9
42.5
Mean STD
51.0
52.6
34.7
Conclusions (Part 1):
-Number of Siberian RAOB sites was increased during last
years
-Most of recovered stations are located in southern part of
Siberia close to China border provided by many vertical
profiles from Chinese RAOB
-Few stations were added in medium latitude belt and in high
latitudes
-Present configuration of Siberian RAOB network does not
provide necessary accuracy in analysis of height, temperature
and, particularly, wind fields in in high latitudes
Part 2
A CASE STUDY: RA I - AFRICA
RAOB network in RA-I: red-operational (2004);
black-nominal in WMO list
Longitude
30
20
Latitude
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Figure 1. Operational in 2004 (red stars-46) and WMO nominal (black stars-262) RAOB stations in RA I
Statistical Regionning due to zonal wind
U700
Longitude
30
20
10
Latitude
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 2. Statistical regioning of zonal wind field U700 in RA1 (operational RAOB-stars) : 1990-1999
Information content weights attributed to
existed operational sites
Longitude
60
5
15
60 1 91
60
8
01
60
30
60
6
65
610
57
5
60
9
54
61
60
62
60
6
62
61
68
7
61
29
1
5
65
03 6 1
30
05
6
4
62
23
0
68
2
44
61
0
76
30
60
20
25
02
37
862
33
7
3
40
62 1 4
4
2
6
4
2
63
10
64
Latitude
64
91
5
0
64
65
45
0
0
00
63
74
1
0
61
90
2
-10
61
90
1
67
67
74
40 81
82 663
6
8
2
32
68 1
68
8
2 46
58
12
4468
8
5
8
68
36
68
85
6
6
2
81
84
68
68
-20
-30
68
90
08
19
3
7
6
-40
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 3. Information weights of RAOB stations in RA1 for U700 (circle size is proportional to weight)
Relative error (with account for seasonal
variability) fields for Z500 objective analysis
Longitude
30
20
0.7
10
0.6
0.5
Latitude
0
0.4
-10
0.3
-20
0.2
-30
0.1
-40
0
-50
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 4. Objective analysis relative error of geopotential field H500 (operational 46 RAOB)
Relative error (with account for seasonal
variability) fields for U700 objective analysis
Longitude
30
0.8
20
0.7
10
0.6
Latitude
0
0.5
-10
0.4
-20
0.3
-30
0.2
-40
0.1
-50
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 5. Objective analysis relative error of zonal wind field U700 (operational 46 RAOB)
Scenario for RA-I RAOB extension with account for
maximization of information content: red-new 13 stations;
black-operational network (46 stations)
Longitude
60611
30
62650
20
61043
62760
61096
62840
65167
10
64390
Latitude
64459
0
63832
63962
-10
66422
67633
-20
-30
-40
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 6 . Operational 46 RAOB(black) and optimal 13 (red) stations: U700 information weights - proportinal to circle sizes
Relative error (with account for seasonal
variability) fields for Z500 objective analysis:
extended network
Longitude
30
20
0.6
10
0.5
Latitude
0
0.4
-10
0.3
-20
0.2
-30
0.1
-40
0
-50
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 7. Objective analysis relative error of height field H500 (operational 46 RAOB+13 recovering stations; black points-WMO list)
Relative error (with account for seasonal
variability) fields for U700 objective analysis:
extended network
Longitude
30
0.85
20
0.75
10
0.65
Latitude
0
0.55
-10
0.45
0.35
-20
0.25
-30
0.15
-40
0.05
-50
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 8. Objective analysis relative error of zonal wind field U700 (operational 46 RAOB+13 recovering stations; black points-WMO list)
Minimal GUAN network due to U700
Longitude
60390
40
30
62641
20 61442
64754
Latitude
10
64500
64459
0
63894
-10
66422
67965
-20
-30
68816
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 10. Minimal GUAN network (10 stations) in RA-I: star size is proportional to information weights to monthly U700 fields
Relative error (with account for multi-year
variability) monthly fields attributed to GUAN
for U700
Longitude
60390
30
0.95
20
62641
61442
10
64754
0.65
Latitude
0
64500 64459
-10
63894
66422
-20
0.35
67965
-30
68816
-40
0.05
-50
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Figure 11. Objective analysis relative error of monthly wind field U700 (GUAN minimal network: 10 sites)
Conclusions (Part 2)
-Missing data areas with respect to operational RAOB station list
for RA-I are very significant. Only 46 from nominal 262 sites
carried out measurements in January-April, 2004.
-Error fields corresponding to major meteorological variables
reveal many gap regions, where the relative errors of
meteorological field representation reach 0.7-0.8 levels.
-Search algorithm allows us to develop a scenario for existed
operational RAOB network extension from 46 to 59 stations by
recover measurements at 13 stations, which provide a substantial
improvement of error fields for all meteorological variables in
missing data areas
-Existing GUAN network has some gaps in Central Africa, which are a reason
of anomaly in objective analysis error fields. An alternative set of ten GUAN
sites provides more uniform information coverage of Africa with respect to
monthly fields.