Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop, Paraguay, August 14-18 2006 Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones.

Transcript Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop, Paraguay, August 14-18 2006 Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones.

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop, Paraguay, August 14-18 2006 Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones

Outline

Drivers & impacts on coastal areas Adaptation options V&A tools & data sources Integrating mechanisms Conclusions

Drivers & impacts on coastal areas

Climate Change and Coastal Resources

 Coastal resources will be affected by a number of consequences of climate change, including:      Higher sea levels Higher sea temperatures Changes in precipitation patterns and coastal runoff Changed oceanic conditions Changes in storm tracks, frequencies, and intensities

The Main Biophysical Effects of Relative Sea Level Rise Table 5.2. The main biophysical effects of relative sea level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

Biogeophysical effect Other relevant factors Climate

Wave and storm climate, morphological changes, sediment supply

Nonclimate

Sediment supply, flood management, morphological changes, land claim Inundation, flood and storm damage Surge Backwater effect (river) Wetland loss (and change) Erosion Runoff CO 2 fertilization Sediment supply Sediment supply, wave and storm climate Catchment management and land use Sediment supply, migration space, direct destruction Sediment supply

Saltwater intrusion

Surface waters Groundwater Rising water tables/impeded drainage Runoff Rainfall

Rainfall

Catchment management and land use Land use, aquifer use Land use, aquifer use

Some Climate Change Factors Table 5.1. Some climate change and related factors relevant to coasts and their biogeophysical effects (taken from Nicholls, 2002) Climate factor Direction of change Biogeophysical effects

Sea water temperature (of surface waters) Precipitation intensity/run-off Wave climate Storm track, frequency, and intensity Atmospheric CO 2 Increase Increased coral bleaching; migration of coastal species toward higher latitudes; decreased incidence of sea ice at higher latitudes Intensified hydrological cycle, with wide regional variations Changed fluvial sediment supply; changed flood risk in coastal lowlands; but also consider catchment management Changed patterns of erosion and accretion; changed storm impacts Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected Increase Changed occurrence of storm flooding and storm damage Increased productivity in coastal ecosystems; decreased CaCO 3 saturation impacts on coral reefs

Current Global Predictions of Sea Level Rise

   IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) range for global-mean rise in sea level is between 9 cm and 88 cm by 2100 Change outside this range is possible, especially if Antarctica becomes a significant source There is a “commitment to sea level rise” even if atmospheric GHG concentrations are stabilized

Global-Mean Sea Level Rise

1990 to 2100 (SRES scenarios)

Houghton et al., 2001



Relative sea-level changes Processes Controlling Sea-Level Change

Land Subsidence Mexico City

Source: http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgwlandsubside.html

Subsidence in Mexico City and the Chalco Plain

Source: Adapted from Ortega et al., 1993

Factors in Local Predictions

 Relative sea level rise: global and regional components plus land movement  Land uplift can counter any global sea level rise  Land subsidence can exacerbate any global sea level rise  Other dynamic oceanic and climatic effects cause regional differences (oceanic circulation, wind and pressure, and ocean-water density differences add additional component)

Sea Level Rise at New York City 1850 to 2100

Observations Scenarios IPCC TAR range due to SRES emission scenarios

McCarthy et al., 2001 6 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Time (yrs)

Other Climate Change (Hurricane Katrina)

Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/aug/hazards.html

Gulfport, Mississippi, July 05

Grand Casino, Gulfport 21 Sept 2005

Caman, Peru, and Tsunami Vulnerability http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

Atolls, Belize

Source: http://home.swbell.net/skyisles/islands.html

Coral Impacts

   “Recent global increases in reef ecosystem degradation and mortality are exceeding the adaptive capacity of coral reef organisms and communities. The severity of this crisis will only intensify with future changes in the global climate.

While the net effects of climate change on coral reefs will be negative, coral reef organisms and communities are not necessarily doomed to total extinction. Multiple environmental management strategies, from local to global, will be necessary to ensure the long term sustainability of the world’s coral reef ecosystems.” Buddemeier et al, 2004

Population and Population Density vs. Distance and Elevation in 1990

Coastal Megacities (>8 million people) Forecast for 2010

Dhaka Tianjin Seoul Osaka Istanbul Los Angeles Lima Buenos Aires New York Tokyo Shanghai Manila Lagos Karachi Mumbai Rio de Janeiro Madras Jakarta Calcutta Bangkok

Rio de Janeiro's waterfront, 1919

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rio_de_Janeiro%27s_waterfront%2C_1919.jpg

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rio_de_Janeiro-Ipanema_Beach.jpg

Havana, Cuba http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

Controls on Coastal Position

antecedent physiography sea-level change littoral sediment supply ( ± ve)

boundary conditions (external)

fluvial-delta inlet bypassing

resuspension & inlet bypassing lagoon basin mud

backbarrier

marine sand wedge

mid-shelf mud

lower shoreface

inner-shelf sand

inlet

upper shoreface

transport

coastal tract

Rio de la Plata http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

SeaWiFS: sediment plumes off the coast of Chile http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html

Beach Erosion, Barbados

Before Storm After Storm Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm

Biogeophysical Effects of Sea Level Rise

     Displacement of coastal lowlands and wetlands Increased coastal erosion Increased flooding (frequency and depth) Salinization of surface and groundwaters Plus others

Ecosystem Loss

   Inundation and displacement of wetlands  e.g., mangroves, saltmarsh, intertidal areas Areas provide  Flood protection   Nursery areas for fisheries Important for nature conservation Loss of valuable resources, tourism

Coastal Ecosystems at Risk

 

KEY: mangroves, o saltmarsh, x coral reefs

Reefs and Mangroves, Latin America and Caribbean

http://www.unep-wcmc.org/marine/data/coral_mangrove/marine_maps_main.html

United Nations Environment Programme Interactive Mapping Tool

Source: http://bure.unep-wcmc.org/imaps/marine/mangroves/viewer.htm

Mangroves as indicators of coastal change, Brazil

Coastal Squeeze (of coastal wetlands)

Sea Level Rise (a) no hard defenses (b) hard defenses

Socioeconomic Impacts

      Loss of property and land Increased flood risk/loss of life Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure Loss of renewable and subsistence resources Loss of tourism, recreation, and coastal habitats Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality

Adaptation Options

Responding to Coastal Change (including sea level rise)

 Retreat  Accommodation  Protect  Soft  Hard

Adaptation Methods

  Retreat  Managed retreat  Relocation from high risk zones Accommodation  Public awareness  Natural disaster management planning

Adaptation Methods (continued)

 Protect  Hard options  Revetments, breakwaters, groins  Floodgates, tidal barriers  Soft options  Beach/wetland nourishment  Dune restoration

Beach Nourishment, Nevis Eroded Beach Re-nourished Beach

Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm

Example Approach to Adaptation Measures

 Climate change predictions  Rise in sea level  Increase in number and intensity of tropical weather systems  Increase in severity of storm surges  Changes in rainfall

Example Approach to Adaptation Measures (continued)

 Coastal impacts  Damage to property/infrastructure  Damage/loss of coastal/marine ecosystems  Destruction of hotels and tourism facilities  Increased risk of disease   Damage/loss of fisheries infrastructure General loss of biodiversity  Submergence/inundation of coastal areas

Example Approach to Adaptation Measures (continued)

 Adaptation (retreat, protect, accommodate)  Improved physical planning and development control      Strengthening/implementation of EIA regulations Formulation of Coastal Zone Management Plan Monitoring of coastal habitats, including beaches Formulation of national climate change policy Public awareness and education

Shoreline Management and Adaptation

Proactive Adaptation Coastal Adaptation (IPCC) UK Shoreline Management (Defra) Protect Hold the line Increasing robustness Increasing flexibility Enhancing adaptability Reversing maladaptive trends Improving awareness and preparedness Accommodate Retreat Advance the line Managed realignment No active intervention Flood plain mapping and flood warnings)

V&A Tools & Data Sources

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment

    Principles Older tools Top down Bottom up

Methods to Assess Impacts of Sea Level Rise

      Sea level rise & climate change scenarios Screening assessment Erosion Flooding Top-down Bottom up

Screening Assessment

  

Rapid assessment to highlight possible impacts of a sea level rise scenario and identify information/data gaps Qualitative or semiquantitative Steps

   

Collation of existing coastal data Assessment of the possible impacts of a high sea level rise scenario Implications of future development Possible responses to the problems caused by sea level rise

Step 1: Collation of Existing Data

         Topographic surveys Aerial/remote sensing images – topography/ land cover Coastal geomorphology classification Evidence of subsidence Long-term relative sea level rise Magnitude and damage caused by flooding Coastal erosion Population density Activities located on the coast (cities, ports, resort areas and tourist beaches, industrial and agricultural areas)

Step 2: Assessment of Possible Impacts of High Scenario Sea Level Rise

     Four impacts are considered Increased storm flooding Beach/bluff erosion Wetland and mangrove inundation and loss Salt water intrusion

Step 3: Implications of Future Developments

    New and existing river dams and impacts on downstream deltas New coastal settlements Expansion of coastal tourism Possibility of transmigration

Step 4: Responses to the Sea Level Rise Impacts

   Planned retreat (i.e., setback of defenses) Accommodate (i.e., raise buildings above flood levels) Protect (i.e., hard and soft defenses, seawalls, beach nourishment)

Screening Assessment Matrix Biophysical vs. Socioeconomic Impacts

Biophysical Impact of Sea Level Rise Tourism Socioeconomic impacts Human Settlements Agriculture Water Supply Fisheries Financial Services Human Health Others?

Inundation Erosion Flooding Salinization Others?

Beach Erosion, Anguilla

Pre Hurricane Post Hurricane Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm

Bruun “Rule”

Limitations of the Bruun “Rule”

   Only describes one of the processes affecting sandy beaches Indirect effect of mean sea level rise  Estuaries and inlets maintain equilibrium  Act as major sinks  Sand eroded from adjacent coast  Increased erosion rates Response time – best applied over long timescales

Flooding

    Increase in flood levels due to rise in sea level Increase in flood risk Increase in populations in coastal floodplain Adaptation  Increase in flood protection  Management and planning in floodplain

Coastal Flood Plain

Global Impacts of Coastal Flooding in 2050 – Effects of Mitigation People flooded (Millions/yr)

The Thames Barrier

Flood Methodology

Storm Surge Flood Curves Coastal Topography Relative Sea-Level Rise Scenarios People Flooded ,

Models

    Top Down  DIVA: Dynamic and Interaction Vulnerability Assessment from DINAS-Coast Project Older Models    COSMO RamCo Common Methodology Integrated Models  RegIS2 : Development of a metamodel tool for regional integrated climate change management Bottom-up approaches

Saltmarsh Losses to 2050 Present day loss rate

Low Climate Change High Climate Change

Bottom Up Models

    Detailed local assessments UK erosion assessment Australian approaches Relative assessment approach ‘Pacific Methodology’

Approach Selection

   ‘Relative’ vs ‘absolute assessments’ Pragmatic approach and selection Example selection criteria:  Type of coast     Management issues Time/budget Access to expertise & data Integration into adaptation

UK Planning Assessment

    Ongoing investigation and formulation of policy Requires information on  Role of major processes in sediment budget   Including human influences Other climate change impacts Example of assessment from the UK Combined flood hazard and erosion assessment

Erosion Often Exported Alongshore

Goals for Planning Assessment

  For future climate and protection scenarios, explore interactions between cliff management and flood risk within sediment sub-cell (in Northeast Norfolk) In particular, quantify  Cliff retreat and associated impacts    Longshore sediment supply/beach size Flood risk Integrated flood and erosion assessment

Method for Planning Assessment

Bathymetry and Wave Modelling Offshore sandbank Nearshore sandbank

Future Policy Maintain Defenses, 6 mm/yr Sea Level Rise

5 year stages 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -150 -100 -50 Recession distance 0 35 Average over 50 years 30 S Sheringham 25 C 20 O T 15 M 10 B 5 H 0 0 0.5

1 1.5

2 Recession rate (m/A) 2.5

Cromer Overstrand Trimmingham Mundesley Bacton Happisburgh S H B M C O T

Erosion Visualization Protection Abandoned (10 year time steps)

A Australian Coastal Vulnerability Approaches C

10 100

accretion erosion

B E

R=S(L/(B+h))=(S)1/tanØ

Kay et al, 2005. Graphics by Colin Woodroffe.

Probabilistic Beach Erosion Cowell et al (in press)

Engineers Australia Matrix

Engineers Australia Approach National assessment Higher sea level S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 K6 Coral bleaching Local assessment Estuary S1 S2 S3 S7 S9 S10 S11 K1 K3 K4 Beach S1 S2 S4 S8 K1 K3 K4 Engineers Australia (2004) in Kay et al, 2005. Graphics by Colin Woodroffe.

Relative Assessment From Kay & Hay, 1993

Group Consultation Processes

   Expert consensus building Stakeholder engagement processes Can be as structured or unstructured as required

Climate Change Adaptation Through Integrated Risk Reduction

http://www.waikato.ac.nz/igci/ccairr/ccairr.htm

Barriers to Conducting Vulnerability Assessments

     Incomplete knowledge of the relevant processes affected by sea level rise and their interactions Insufficient data on existing physical conditions Difficulty in developing the local and regional scenarios of future changes Lack of appropriate analytical methodologies Variety of questions raised by different socio political conditions

Data Sources

    IPCC Data Distribution Centre Sea level data   Permanent service for mean sea level GLOSS – Global Sea-Level Observing System Remotely sensed data   Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Centre (NASA) Shuttle radar topography mission Coastal data   Global mapping e.g. http://www.unep-wcmc.org

Coastal specialists in your region e.g. Un

GLOSS Tide Gauges

http://ioc3.unesco.org/gloss-south-america /

GTOPO30 Global Digital Elevation Model

Data Sources

 Local observational data  Sea level measurements  Elevation/topography  Wave recording  Aerial photography  Habitat mapping

Integrating Mechanisms Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)

Basic Features of ICZM

   Establishes institutions designed to overcome sectoral fragmentation Promotes harmonization & consistency of decisions, but does not supplant sectoral management Recognizes the distinctive, interrelated nature of watersheds, the coast, and ocean Source: Jim Good

Global ICZM Activity 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1993 -National and sub national International 2000 2002

From Sorensen 1993, 1997, 2000, 2002

Wide range of literature

 Books  Papers  Websites

Planning Frameworks

Scales of Coastal Management Plans

Level o f Plan (scale) International Whole -of-jurisdiction 1 Regional Local Site       Key Role   Transboundary issues Creating a common p urpose   Administrative arrangements Setting national objectives and principles Focus on prio rities Translating internationa l and national goals and objectives to local outcomes. Aggregate local needs and issues to formulate national and internationa l prio rities and programs Community involvement i n setting management options Managing well defined problems Tangible results o f all plannin g levels can be seen

Example mitigation policy Western Australia (2003)

  “These setback guidelines provide direction for the siting of development, including subdivision and strata subdivision, on the Western Australian coast as defined in this Policy. The specific objectives of these guidelines are to provide a setback that protects development from coastal processes by:  absorbing the impact of a severe storm sequence;    allowing for shoreline movement; allowing for global sea level rise; and allowing for the fluctuation of natural coastal processes. “

Western Australian Coastal Policy - Bruun Rule Component

 “The setback to allow for sea level rise is based on the mean of the median model of the latest Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group (currently, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group, January 2001). The vertical change predicted by the current model between the years of 2000 and 2100 is 0.38 m. A multiplier of 100, based on the Bruun Rule shall be used and gives a value for 38 m for sandy shores. For other shore types, this factor shall be assessed in regard to local geography.”

Recap