Transcript Center for Business and Economic Research Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama.

Center for Business and Economic Research
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Employees: 2,693 (Oct. 2013)
Additional engineering jobs to be created: up to 400*
Supplier/vendor locations: 234**
Supplier/vendor purchases: $483 million**
* The
firm is establishing a new research center in Huntsville that
will focus on simulation and decision analytics and metals and
chemical technology; one of five technology centers nationwide.
** 2012 data
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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New missile contract: $3.9 billion*
Huntsville employees: 850
Troy employees: 360 + 100 by 2020
* New contract for Terminal High Altitude Defense
Weapons Systems will boost the firm’s operating facility in
Troy and program office in Huntsville.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Investment: $600 million
Employees: up to 1,000
First delivery: 2016
Investment: $75 million
Employees: up to 400 by 2020
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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800
$ Millions
600
400
200
0
Source: Alabama Department of Commerce, International Trade Division.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Florida
7.9
Alabama
6.1
Kentucky
5.1
Georgia
4.2
Mississippi
3.7
North Carolina
1.7
South Carolina
1.7
Louisiana
1.4
Tennessee
0.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
$ Billions
6.0
8.0
Source: USAspending.gov, prime award contracts data.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Aerospace products and parts manufacturing
Aerospace products
and parts
manufacturing
$1,500
Manufacturing industries
Manufacturing
industries
$969
All industries
All industries
$100
$807
$400
$700
$1,000
$1,300
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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$80,000
Aerospace products and
parts manufacturing
$60,000
$40,000
All industries
$20,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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400
Billions of Chained 2005 $
Real net stock of aircraft fleets
300
200
Real exports of aircraft
100
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Source: IHS Global Insight.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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1
Healthcare
Healthcare costs; Affordable Care Act;
Medicare, Medicaid
2
Government
Federal and state government; taxation;
regulations
3
Education/
Training
Quality of education; workforce development
4
Economy/
Businesses
Economic growth and recovery; small
businesses; business costs and investment
5
Jobs
Job growth; unemployment; better quality jobs
Note: Football championships/Alabama loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl issue was mentioned
by 2.5% of respondents.
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov.-Dec. 2013.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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1
Government
Policy (e.g., uncertainty, sequestration);
taxation; regulations
2
Company
Finances and
Development
Profitability; business costs; cash flow;
availability of credit; business opportunities;
competition; concern about customers
3
Economy
Economic growth; housing market; demand and
consumer confidence
4
Healthcare
Healthcare costs; Affordable Care Act
5
Workforce
Lack of skilled labor; employee development
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov.-Dec. 2013.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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ABCI
Change
Alabama from Q4 2013
51.2
-0.7
National Economy
47.8
-2.6
Alabama Economy
53.8
-2.2
Industry Sales
54.1
-0.2
Industry Profits
52.3
0.8
Industry Hiring
49.6
-1.2
Capital Expenditures
49.9
1.5
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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60
Alabama
55
50
53.8
United
States
47.8
45
40
35
Q1
Q2 Q3
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
2014
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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65
60
Sales
55
54.1
52.3
50
Profits
45
40
Q1
Q2 Q3
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
2014
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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56
54
52
Hiring
49.9
49.6
50
48
Capital
Expenditures
46
44
42
Q1
Q2 Q3
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
2014
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Change from
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Construction
59.0
5.7
Manufacturing
54.9
1.8
Transportation/Information/Utilities
45.8
-7.5
Wholesale Trade
46.1
-3.3
Retail Trade
48.6
7.3
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
54.4
-1.1
Professional/Scientific/Technical
Services
49.9
-0.8
Healthcare Services
42.3
-5.3
All Other Services
51.3
-0.6
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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60
56.2
55.4
53.2
55
50
45
44.9
Birmingham-Hoover
40
Huntsville
Mobile
35
Montgomery
30
Q1
Q2
2012
Q3
Q4
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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6
80
National Economy Index
U.S. Real GDP
4
60
2
50
0
40
-2
30
ABCI
National Economy
-4
U.S. Real GDP (Percent Change)
70
-6
20
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Alabama Population by Age Group
2010 and Projected 2025 and 2040
Age Group
2010
Number Percent
2025
Number Percent
2040
Number Percent
0-4 years
304,957
6.4
307,591
324,612
5.8
5-19 years
971,355
20.3
998,297
19.0 1,004,970
18.1
2,845,632
59.5 2,925,619
55.8 3,037,589
54.6
65+ years
657,792
13.8 1,010,916
19.3 1,199,853
21.6
85+ years
75,684
20-64 years
Total
4,779,736
1.6
94,122
100.0 5,242,423
5.9
1.8
165,041
3.0
100.0 5,567,024
100.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
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Alabama Total Population 2010 and 2025
85+
85+
80-84
2025
80-84
75-79
2010
75-79
70-74
70-74
Age Groups
65-69
65-69
60-64
60-64
55-59
55-59
50-54
50-54
45-49
45-49
40-44
40-44
35-39
35-39
30-34
30-34
25-29
25-29
20-24
20-24
15-19
15-19
10-14
10-14
5-9
5-9
0-4
10.0
8.0
0-4
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Percent by Age Group
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Alabama Employment and Population Growth
for 2020 and 2030
(Percent Change from 2010)
20.0
Total Population
15.5
Population 20-64
15.0
12.2
10.4
Nonagricultural Employment
10.0
6.7
5.0
2.7
3.2
2020
2030
0.0
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight, U.S. Census Bureau, and Center for
Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
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Labor force
Employed
Underemployment rate
YTD 2013*
2,153,828
2,010,681
23.8%
Number of underemployed workers
478,542
Unemployed
143,147
Available labor pool
621,689
Total number of occupations = 785
High-demand = 40 (growth- and wages-weighted & minimum 40 annual job openings)
Fast-growing = 20 (3.40% annual growth rate & 15 annual job openings minimum)
High-earning = 50 (annual salary of $90,490 - $251,470)
Sharp-declining = 20 (10% or more job decline & minimum net job loss of 40)
* through November 2013
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama and
Labor Market Information Division, Alabama Department of Labor.
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Efforts to address skill needs, shortfalls in critical occupations,
and both medium and long term worker shortfalls must include:
Improving education and its funding
Focusing on hard-to-serve populations (e.g. out-of-school &
at-risk youth)
Lowering the high school dropout rate
Programs to assess, retrain, and place dislocated workers—
especially those affected by outsourcing—should be continued
and enhanced because they can improve the labor force
participation rate
Recruiting: Using economic opportunities to attract new residents
Facilitating in-commuting
Encouraging older worker participation
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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GDP and Employment
Exports
Auto Industry
Forecast
A better year in 2014!
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Not Seasonally
Adjusted
Seasonally
Adjusted
Civilian Labor Force
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
2,137,173
-0.8%
-17,125
2,126,952
-1.2%
-25,216
Employed
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
2,017,864
0.0%
1,249
1,994,571
-0.4%
-8,641
Unemployed
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
119,309
-13.3%
-18,374
132,381
-11.1%
-16,575
Alabama Unemployment Rate
Alabama Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2012)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2012)
5.6%
6.4%
6.6%
7.4%
6.2%
6.9%
7.0%
7.8%
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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7.0
7.5
United States
6.4
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Anniston-Oxford
5.1
Auburn-Opelika
7.0
7.4
7.3
6.0
5.7
6.1
5.8
6.6
6.2
6.8
6.2
6.9
6.2
6.5
6.3
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
5.7
5.9
Huntsville
7.3
Mobile
6.7
Montgomery
5.8
Tuscaloosa
October 2013
7.5
7.9
7.3
6.6
October 2012
Source: Alabama Department of Labor.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Total Nonfarm
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
November 2011 to
November 2012
12,400
-100
-2,400
6,300
6,400
-100
-1,800
300
-4,200
2,100
-800
1,200
6,800
3,900
4,100
600
-5,400
-1,400
-4,900
900
November 2012 to
November 2013
2,800
200
-2,600
5,500
2,600
2,900
2,200
-700
5,500
-2,600
-500
-100
-1,900
-900
4,900
0
-4,000
-1,200
-1,200
-1,600
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Total Nonagricultural
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
January
2011
November
2013
Change
1,839,400
12,100
77,200
233,200
143,500
89,700
358,800
70,900
221,500
66,400
23,500
91,100
208,200
213,200
159,500
78,400
384,200
57,200
110,400
216,600
1,898,800
12,600
75,700
251,000
158,400
92,600
371,900
72,300
232,400
67,200
21,500
93,100
220,200
221,700
177,000
80,200
373,900
54,400
104,900
214,600
59,400
500
-1,500
17,800
14,900
2,900
13,100
1,400
10,900
800
-2,000
2,000
12,000
8,500
17,500
1,800
-10,300
-2,800
-5,500
-2,000
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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(Number of Months)
102
1980
100
1981
1990
98
2001
2007
96
94
92
90
1
6
11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71
Number of Months
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce,
The University of Alabama.
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10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2000
Total
Nondurable Goods
Durable Goods
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research,
The University of Alabama.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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100%
Rest of state,
16.7
90%
Tuscaloosa, 5.3
Montgomery,
8.4
80%
70%
Mobile, 9.1
60%
Huntsville, 11.8
50%
Dothan, 2.5
40%
Decatur, 2.7
Daphne30% Fairhope-Foley,
3.1
20%
10%
AuburnOpelika, 2.3
0%
Gadsden, 1.5
FlorenceMuscle Shoals,
2.3
BirminghamHoover,
32.0
AnnistonOxford, 2.1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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2013
915,000
2012
880,000
2011
743,167
2010
711,283
2009
467,708
2008
672,102
2007
739,019
2006
698,086
2005
479,465
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Source: Alabama OEM reports.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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24
20
Total
$ Billions
16
12
Transportation
Equipment
8
4
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Center.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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30%
25%
Alabama
20%
Florida
Georgia
15%
Mississippi
North Carolina
10%
South Carolina
Tennessee
5%
0%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Source: Estimates based on U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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25%
20%
Alabama
15%
Florida
Georgia
Mississippi
10%
North Carolina
South Carolina
5%
Tennessee
0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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(Percent change unless otherwise noted)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Real GDP
1.8
2.8
1.7
2.5
3.1
Consumption
2.5
2.2
1.9
2.5
2.7
Residential Investment
0.5
12.9
13.6
14.8
16.2
-0.4
7.9
1.8
6.9
18.5
7.6
7.3
2.4
4.8
6.0
Federal Government
-2.6
-1.4
-4.7
0.4
-0.6
State & Local Government
-3.6
-0.7
-0.2
0.2
0.7
Exports
7.1
3.5
2.4
4.5
5.6
Imports
4.9
2.2
1.6
4.9
5.8
Payroll Employment
1.2
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.8
Unemployment Rate
8.9
8.1
7.5
6.9
6.4
CPI Inflation
3.1
2.1
1.4
1.4
1.7
12.74
14.44
15.53
15.93
16.34
Commercial, Healthcare Structures
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Light Vehicle Sales (Millions)
Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2014.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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6
Alabama GDP
4
2
0
-2
Nonfarm Employment
-4
-6
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business
and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent)
(Percent change)
Real GDP
2012
2013
2014
2015
1.3
1.9
2.4
3.1
2.0 to 3.2
2.5 to 4.0
1.3
1.0
0.5 to 1.8
0.7 to 2.0
4.1
4.5
3.5 to 5.6
3.5 to 6.0
range
Employment
0.7
0.3
range
Total Tax Receipts, FY
range
3.8
4.0
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Economy = People + Institutions + Property = Private & Public Sectors
Economic Development = Higher or better quality of life
Human Capital Development = Improved education and healthcare
Institutional Development = Better government, companies, culture
Physical Capital Development = Better infrastructure and environment
There is no economic development without education (a public good)
*** Informal education is also important
Universities (Largely Public Good)
Vocational and Community Colleges (Mostly Public Good)
Pre-Kindergarten to High School (Pure Public Good)
Development Policies must be Optimal = Efficient, Fair, Flexible, Sustainable
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Labor force participation (2012): Alabama 57.3% United States 63.7%
Population Growth
Alabama
United States
1990-2000
10.1%
13.2%
2000-2010
7.5%
9.7%
2010-2013
1.1%
2.4%
Educational Attainment (Age 25 and over population)
2008-2012 (2012)
Alabama
United States
High school graduates
82.6% (84.0%)
85.7% (86.4%)
Bachelor’s or higher degree
22.3% (23.3%)
28.5% (29.1%)
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
Per Capita
Income
$43,735
$35,926
$32,883
$30,236
$41,850
$38,548
$33,127
$35,816
$33,249
$32,717
$41,595
$32,772
$37,905
$34,870
Percent Change
from 2011
3.4
2.9
1.5
2.0
3.9
1.1
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.7
1.5
0.6
2.3
2.5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
Average
Wage
$45,790
$39,550
$35,410
$36,190
$42,160
$37,940
$35,150
$34,830
$33,990
$49,860
$39,580
$39,460
$39,470
Percent
of State
115.8
100.0
89.5
91.5
106.6
95.9
88.9
88.1
85.9
126.1
100.1
99.8
99.8
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Occupational Employment Statistics, May 2012.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
$64,400
$53,600
$53,100
$63,000
$57,100
$60,400
$55,200
$50,000
$51,000
$42,100
$71,500
$52,400
$61,500
$55,700
Note: Chilton and Walker counties are not included in the estimate for the Birmingham-Hoover metro and Henry County
is not included in the Dothan MSA estimate.
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Economic Affairs,
Economic and Market Analysis Division.
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Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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$
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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$
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2009
2010
2011
2012
44
45
47
46
47
46
40
43
41
41
41
41
Source: Estimates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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2012: U.S. $43,735
Alabama $35,926
90
80
70
60
50
40
1929: U.S. $697
Alabama $318
30
1929
1939
1949
1959
1969
1979
1989
1999
2009
Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama
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