Transcript Population Change in The United States: Implications for The Impacts of Natural Hazards in the Coming Decades Steve H.

Population Change in The United States:
Implications for The Impacts of Natural Hazards
in the Coming Decades
Steve H. Murdock, Director
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas
and
Allyn and Gladys Cline Professor of Sociology
Rice University
36th Annual Natural Hazards Research
and Applications Workshop
Broomfield, Colorado
July 12, 2011
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas
Rice
Hobby
Centeratfor
theUniversity
Study of Texas at Rice University
Total Population and Percent Population Change
in Texas and the United States, 1850-2010
Total Population
Year
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Texas
212,592
604,215
818,579
1,591,749
2,235,527
3,048,710
3,896,542
4,663,228
5,824,715
6,414,824
7,711,194
9,579,677
11,196,730
14,229,191
16,986,510
20,851,820
25,145,561
U.S.
23,191,876
31,443,321
39,818,449
50,155,783
62,947,714
75,994,575
91,972,266
105,710,620
122,775,046
131,669,275
150,697,361
179,323,175
203,302,031
226,545,805
248,709,873
281,421,906
308,745,538
Percent Change
Texas
--184.2
35.5
94.5
40.4
36.4
27.8
19.7
24.9
10.1
20.2
24.2
16.9
27.1
19.4
22.8
20.6
Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census April 1 of reported year.
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
U.S.
--35.6
26.6
26.0
25.5
20.7
21.0
14.9
16.1
7.2
14.5
19.0
13.4
11.4
9.8
13.2
9.7
Ten States in the United States with the
Largest Numeric Population Increase 2000-2010
Change 2000-2010
2000
Population
2010
Population
Numeric
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6
Virginia
7,078,515
8,001,024
922,509
13.0
Washington
5,894,121
6,724,540
830,419
14.1
Colorado
4,301,261
5,029,196
727,935
16.9
Nevada
1,998,257
2,700,551
702,294
35.1
State
United States
Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Percent
Ten States in the United States with the
Largest Percentage Population Increase 2000-2010
Change 2000-2010
State
United States
2000
Population
2010
Population
Numeric
Percent
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7
Nevada
1,998,257
2,700,551
702,294
35.1
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6
Utah
2,233,169
2,763,885
530,716
23.8
Idaho
1,293,953
1,567,582
273,629
21.1
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6
Colorado
4,301,261
5,029,196
727,935
16.9
South Carolina
4,012,012
4,625,364
613,352
15.3
Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Regional Population Change as a
Proportion of U.S. Population Change, 2000-2010
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Population of the United States by Regions, 1910-2010
Population in Thousands (Thousands)
United States/
Regions
1900
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
United States
76,212
151,326
179,323
203,302
226,546
248,710
281,422
308,746
Northeast
27.6
26.1
24.9
24.1
21.7
20.4
19.0
17.9
Midwest
34.5
29.4
28.8
27.9
25.9
24.0
22.9
21.7
South
32.2
31.2
30.7
30.9
33.3
34.4
35.6
37.1
West
5.7
13.3
15.6
17.1
19.1
21.2
22.5
23.3
Regions
Population values as of April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Population 2000 and 2010 and Population Change 2000-2010 for
the Ten Most Populous Incorporated Places in the United States
Place
New York , NY
Los Angeles , CA
Chicago , IL
Houston , TX
Philadelphia , PA
Phoenix , AZ
San Antonio , TX
San Diego , CA
Dallas , TX
San Jose , CA
Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171.
Population
2000
2010
Change
Number
Percent
8,008,278
3,694,820
2,896,016
1,953,631
1,517,550
1,321,045
1,144,646
1,223,400
1,188,580
8,175,133
3,792,621
2,695,598
2,099,451
1,526,006
1,445,632
1,327,407
1,307,402
1,197,816
166,855
97,801
-200,418
145,820
8,456
124,587
182,761
84,002
9,236
2.1
2.6
-6.9
7.5
0.6
9.4
16.0
6.9
0.8
894,943
945,942
50,999
5.7
Components of Change,
U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009
United States
Component
Texas
Percent of
Total
Numeric Change Change
Total Change
Natural Increase
Net Domestic Migration
Net International Migration
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Numeric
Change
Percent of
Total
Change
25,584,644
100.0
3,930,482
100.0
15,875,579
62.1
2,124,124
54.0
----
---
848,702
21.6
9,709,065
37.9
957,656
24.4
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Total Population by
Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010
Population
Percent of Total
Population
Population Change
Percent
Percent
of Total
Change
2,264,778
1.2
8.3
69.1
63.7
50,477,594
15,181,776
43.0
55.6
12.5
16.3
33,947,837
37,685,848
3,738,011
11.0
13.7
12.1
12.2
NH Asian
9,123,169
14,455,124
5,331,955
58.4
19.5
3.2
4.7
NH Other
8,502,308
9,309,420
807,112
9.5
2.9
3.1
3.1
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
194,552,774
196,817,552
Hispanic (All Races)
35,295,818
NH Black
NH White
Total
Numeric
2000
2010
*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other
includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or
Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.
Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population 18
and Older by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010
Population
Percent of Total
Population
Population Change
Percent
Percent
of Total
Change
6,549,203
4.4
28.8
71.1
67.0
33,346,703
7,701,820
30.0
33.9
12.1
14.2
23,341,446
27,323,665
3,982,219
17.1
17.5
11.0
11.6
NH Asian
7,705,208
11,288,995
3,583,787
46.5
15.8
3.6
4.8
NH Other
4,601,279
5,503,718
902,439
19.6
4.0
2.2
2.4
211,844,603
234,564,071
22,719,468
10.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
Race/Ethnicity*
2000
2010
150,551,787
157,100,990
Hispanic (All Races)
25,644,883
NH Black
NH White
Total
Numeric
2000
2010
*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other
includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or
Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.
Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Population, Population Change, and Proportion of the Population Under
Age 18 by Race/Ethnicity for the United States, 2000 and 2010
Population
Race/Ethnicity*
NH White
2000
2010
Percent of Total
Population
Population Change
Numeric
Percent
Percent
of Total
Change
2000
2010
44,000,987
39,716,562
-4,284,425
-9.7
-93.1
63.2
53.5
9,650,935
17,130,891
7,479,956
77.5
162.5
13.9
23.1
NH Black
10,606,391
10,362,183
-244,208
-2.3
-5.3
15.3
14.0
NH Asian
1,417,961
3,166,129
1,748,168
123.3
38.0
2.0
4.3
NH Other
3,901,029
3,805,702
-95,327
-2.4
-2.1
5.6
5.1
69,577,303
74,181,467
4,604,164
6.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
Hispanic (All Races)
Total
*Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other
includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or
Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races.
Source: U.S. Census 2000 & 2010, P.L. 94-171
Prepared by the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University http://HobbyCenter.Rice.edu
Percent of United States Population
by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
Percent of United States Population
by Age Group and Ethnicity, 2050
Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University
PROJECTIONS
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and
Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
(Resident population as of July 1. Numbers in thousands)
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
All other
White alone Black alone Asian alone
(any race)
races
195,771
34,414
10,436
5,909
35,629
200,853
37,985
14,083
7,586
49,726
205,255
41,847
18,308
9,612
66,365
207,217
45,461
22,991
11,904
85,931
206,065
48,780
28,064
14,523
108,223
203,347
51,949
33,418
17,503
132,792
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
Total
282,158
310,233
341,387
373,504
405,655
439,010
Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by
Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)
156.9
97.2
17.5
23.0
11.6
7.6
Non-Hispanic
White alone
Non-Hispanic
Black alone
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
Non-Hispanic
Asian alone
Non-Hispanic all
other races
Hispanic (any
race)
Total
Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and
Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
Non-Hispanic White
alone
5%
Non-Hispanic Black
alone
11%
Non-Hispanic Asian
alone
15%
Hispanic
62%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Non-Hispanic Other
7%
Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population:
2000 to 2050
Age Group
Under 5 years
5 to 19 years
20 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 to 84 years
85 years and over
(Percent of total resident population as of July 1)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.4
21.7
20.3
19.9
19.7
19.4
19.3
36.9
33.8
32.7
32.0
31.5
31.7
22.1
26.1
24.7
22.6
22.7
22.4
10.9
11.1
14.1
17.0
16.5
15.8
1.5
1.9
1.9
2.3
3.5
4.3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the
U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000
Age
Total
Under 5 years
5 to 17 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 years and over
Non-Hispanic
White alone
69.4
58.7
62.1
62.0
67.4
76.7
83.7
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
81.6
85.8
86.9
(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
Black alone
Asian alone
all other races
(any race)
12.2
3.7
2.1
12.6
14.4
3.6
3.8
19.5
15.0
3.4
3.1
16.4
13.9
4.2
2.5
17.4
12.5
4.4
1.9
13.8
10.4
3.5
1.5
7.9
8.0
2.3
0.9
5.0
8.7
7.2
7.3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
2.7
2.0
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.7
5.9
4.1
3.6
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution
of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2050
Age
Total
Under 5 years
5 to 17 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 44 years
45 to 64 years
65 years and over
Non-Hispanic
White alone
46.3
37.1
38.3
39.6
43.6
49.7
58.5
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
54.5
58.2
67.4
(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
Black alone
Asian alone
all other races
(any race)
11.8
7.6
4.0
30.2
11.1
5.9
6.5
39.4
11.3
6.0
5.7
38.6
11.6
6.4
4.9
37.5
12.1
7.8
4.1
32.4
12.8
8.9
3.1
25.5
11.2
8.4
2.1
19.8
12.1
10.9
9.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
9.3
8.8
5.9
2.4
2.0
1.8
21.7
20.2
15.1
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND
SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
Total and Percent of the United States Population in Poverty and
Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009
1999
2009
Population
in Poverty
%
Median
Household
Income*
%
Median
Household
Income
15,414,119
8.1
$58,523
19,462,966
10.0
$54,671
Hispanic
7,797,874
22.6
$43,442
11,130,896
23.5
$39,923
Black
8,146,146
24.9
$37,956
9,407,955
25.8
$33,463
Asian
1,257,237
12.6
$66,961
1,539,226
11.4
$68,780
Other
1,284,436
18.5
NA
1,327,120
18.4
NA
Total
33,899,812
12.4
$54,172
42,868,163
14.3
$50,221
Anglo
Population
in Poverty
*In 2009 Dollars
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
Educational Attainment for the United States
Population Age 25 and Older
by Race/Ethnicity, 2009
Population
Less
High
Race
Age 25 and than high school
Ethnicity
Older
school diploma
Non-Hispanic White 139,962,199
9.6
29.3
Black
22,975,410
18.6
31.6
Hispanic*
26,106,587
39.1
26.2
Asian
9,404,493
14.7
16.0
Total
201,952,383
14.7
28.5
________
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2009.
*Includes Hispanic persons of all races.
Some
college or
associates Bachelor
degree
or more
30.0
31.1
32.2
17.6
22.1
12.6
19.6
49.7
28.9
27.9
Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound
Seniors in the United States in 2001 by Selected
Characteristics
SAT Score
Mean
Verbal
Mean
Math
506
514
Race/Ethnicity:
American Indian
African American or Black
Hispanic: Mexican American
Puerto Rican
Other Hispanic
White
Asian American or Pacific Islander
481
433
451
457
460
529
501
479
426
458
451
465
531
566
Household Income:
< $10,000
$10,000 - 20,000
$20,000 - 30,000
$30,000 - 40,000
$40,000 - 50,000
$50,000 - 60,000
$60,000 - 70,000
$70,000 - 80,000
$80,000 - 100,000
> $100,000
421
442
468
487
501
509
516
522
534
557
443
456
474
489
503
512
519
527
540
569
Characteristic
All Students
(N = 1,276,320)
Hobby Center for the Study
of Texas at Rice University
The mark of a truly
educated man is to be
moved deeply by statistics.
George Bernard Shaw
Steve Murdock
Phone: 210-867-4385
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://hobbycenter.rice.edu