Transcript Tom Peters’ Re-Imagine: Excellence NOW World Strategy Forum The New Rules: Reframing Capitalism Seoul/13 June 2012 (slides @ tompeters.com and excellencenow.com)

Tom Peters’
Re-Imagine:
Excellence
NOW
World Strategy Forum
The New Rules: Reframing Capitalism
Seoul/13 June 2012
(slides @ tompeters.com and excellencenow.com)
1977-1982
“Not Dead Yet”
BRIC/2011: $11T/$4K per capita
USA/2011: $16T/$48K per capita
USA/2000: 4% population/30% world GDP
USA/2010: 4% populattion/28% world GDP
USA productivity: ’07/1.7%; ’08/2.1%; ’09/5.4%; ’10/2.4%; ’11/4.1%
FDIC institutions: 4Q/2008/-$38B; 2Q/2011/+$29B
1/2008 to 9/2011: USA consumer savings 0% to 6%/$2.1T saved
Foreign Direct Investment: 2003: $64B; 2008: $328B; 2009: $134B;
2011: $200B+
Exports/2009: USA $1.53T ($1.06T goods, $0.47T services);
Germany $1.36T; China $1.33T
USA/Refined petroleum products/1Q 2011: Imports 2.16M BPD;
Exports 2.49M BPD
“New economy”: Apple (>Exxon) + Google + Facebook ~ $1T
market cap
Source: Daniel Gross, The Myth of American Decline and the Growth of a New Economy
iPad/$4 billion
of $300 billion negative
USA trade balance with
China (2011)
Cost/Profit Components:
Total labor 7%
(Chinese labor: 2%)
Materials 31%
Distribution: 15%
Profit: 47%
$275 = Imputed
Landed iPad cost:
USA negative trade balance with China
(Actual China cost: $10)
Source: Personal Computing Industry Centre (Economist)
Cost*/Profit Components:
Total labor 7%
(Chinese labor: 2%)
Materials 31%
Distribution: 17%
Profit: 47%
$275 = Imputed
Landed iPad cost:
USA negative trade balance with China
(Actual China cost: $10)
*Biggest non-USA component:
Korea
Source: Personal Computing Industry Centre (Economist)
Q3 2011/BLS
+3.1/Non-farm productivity growth
+3.8/Non-farm output
+0.6/Non-farm hours worked
+5.4/Manufacturing productivity
+4.7/Manufacturing output
-0.6/Manufacturing hours worked
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/03 November 2011
It’s Getting a Little Strange Out*
DelFly/lighter than your
wedding ring (Economist 0602)
Oscar Pistorius’ sprinting
acumen/approved for
London (WSJ 0602)
*See Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near:
When Humans Transcend Biology; key
chapter, “GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions”
(GNR: Genetics, Nanotechnology, Robotics)
“In some sense you can
argue that the science
fiction scenario is already
starting to happen. The
computers are in control.
We just live in their
world.” —Danny Hillis, Thinking Machines
“Unless mankind
redesigns itself by
changing our DNA
through altering our
genetic makeup,
computer-generated
robots will take over
the world.” – Stephen Hawking
Tom Peters’
Re-Imagine:
Excellence
NOW
World Strategy Forum/The New Rules:
Reframing Organization Effectiveness*
(*McKinsey OE Practice: 1977-present)
“Tom, let me tell you the
definition of a good
lending officer. …
“Tom, let me tell you the
definition of a good lending
officer. After church on Sunday,
on the way home with his
family, he takes a little detour
to drive by the factory he just
lent money to. Doesn’t go in or
any such thing, just drives by
and takes a look.”
MBWA
Managing
By
Wandering
Around
“The art of war does not
require complicated
maneuvers; the simplest are
the best and common sense is
fundamental. From which one
might wonder how it is
it
is because they try to
be clever.”
generals make blunders;
—Napoleon
Excellence
Excellence1982: The Bedrock “Eight Basics”
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
A Bias for Action
Close to the Customer
Autonomy and Entrepreneurship
Productivity Through People
Hands On, Value-Driven
Stick to the Knitting
Simple Form, Lean Staff
Simultaneous Loose-Tight
Properties
“Breakthrough” 82*
People!
Customers!
Action!
Values!
*In Search of Excellence
Hard is Soft.
Soft is Hard.
“The first step is to measure what
can easily be measured. This is okay
as far as it goes. The second step is
to disregard that which cannot be
measured, or give it an arbitrary
quantitative value. This is artificial
and misleading. The third step is
to presume that what cannot be
measured is not very important.
This is blindness. The fourth step is
to say that what cannot be measured
does not really exist. This is suicide.”
—Daniel Yankelovich (from Enough!, by Jack Bogle)
“Diverse groups of problem solvers—groups
of people with diverse tools—consistently
outperformed groups of the best and the
brightest. If I formed two groups, one
random (and therefore diverse) and one
consisting of the best individual performers,
the first group almost always did better. …
Diversity trumped
ability.”
—Scott Page, The Difference:
How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups,
Firms, Schools, and Societies
or it's simply
not worth
doing
“Business has to give people enriching,
or it's
simply not
worth
doing.”
rewarding lives …
—Richard Branson
Oath of Office: Managers/Servant Leaders
Our goal is to serve our customers brilliantly and profitably over
the long haul.
Serving our customers brilliantly and profitably over the long
haul is a product of brilliantly serving, over the long haul, the
people who serve the customer.
Hence, our job as leaders—the alpha and the omega and
everything in between—is abetting the sustained growth and
success and engagement and enthusiasm and commitment to
Excellence of those, one at a time, who directly or indirectly
serve the ultimate customer.
We—leaders of every stripe—are in the “Human Growth and
Development and Success and Aspiration to Excellence
business.”
“We” [leaders] only grow when “they” [each and every one of our colleagues] are
growing.
“We” [leaders] only succeed when “they” [each and every one of our colleagues]
are succeeding.
“We” [leaders] only energetically march toward Excellence when
“they” [each and every one of our colleagues] are energetically marching
toward Excellence.
Period.
EMPLOYEES FIRST, CUSTOMERS SECOND:
Turning Conventional Management Upside Down
Vineet Nayar/CEO/HCL Technologies
The Memories That Matter
The people you developed who went on to
stellar accomplishments inside or outside
the company.
The (no more than) two or three people you developed who went on to
create stellar institutions of their own.
The longshots (people with “a certain something”) you bet on who
surprised themselves—and your peers.
The people of all stripes who 2/5/10/20 years
later say “You made a difference in my life,”
“Your belief in me changed everything.”
The sort of/character of people you hired in general. (And the bad
apples you chucked out despite some stellar traits.)
A handful of projects (a half dozen at most) you doggedly pursued that
still make you smile and which fundamentally changed the way
things are done inside or outside the company/industry.
The supercharged camaraderie of a handful of Great Teams aiming to
“change the world.”
four most
important
words in any
“The
organization are …
The four most important words in any organization
are …
“What do
you
think?”
Source: courtesy Dave Wheeler, posted at tompeters.com
“The doctor
interrupts
after …*
*Source: Jerome Groopman, How Doctors Think
18 …
seconds!
[An obsession with] Listening is ... the ultimate mark
of
Listening
Listening
Listening
Listening
Listening
Listening
Listening
is
is
is
is
is
is
is
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Listening
Listening
Listening
Listening
is
is
is
is
...
...
...
...
the heart and soul of Engagement.
the heart and soul of Kindness.
the heart and soul of Thoughtfulness.
the basis for true Collaboration.
the basis for true Partnership.
a Team Sport.
a Developable Individual Skill.* (*Though women
are far better at it than men.)
the basis for Community.
the bedrock of Joint Ventures that work.
the bedrock of Joint Ventures that grow.
the core of effective Cross-functional
Communication* (*Which is in turn Attribute #1 of
organizational effectiveness.)
[cont.]
Respect
.
Human creativity
is the ultimate
economic
resource
“Human
creativity is
the ultimate
economic
resource.”
—Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class
“Every child is
born an artist.
The trick is to
remain an
artist.”
—Picasso
Ye gads: “Thomas Stanley has not only found no
correlation between success in school and an ability to
accumulate entrepreneurial wealth, he’s actually
found a negative correlation. ‘It seems that schoolrelated evaluations are poor predictors of economic
success,’ Stanley concluded. ‘What did predict success
was a willingness to take risks. Yet the success-failure
standards of most schools penalized risk takers.’
Most educational systems
reward those who play it safe.
As a result, those who do well
in school find it hard to take
risks later on.”
—Richard Farson & Ralph Keyes,
Whoever Makes the Most Mistakes Wins
Up,
Up,
Up,
Up
the Value-added Ladder …
Design WINs!
APPLE market cap
> Exxon Mobil*
*August 2011
“We don’t have a good language to talk
about this kind of thing. In most people’s
vocabularies, design means veneer. …
But to me, nothing could be further from
Design is
the fundamental
soul of a man-made
creation.”
the meaning of design.
—Steve Jobs
“Only one company
can be the cheapest.
All others must use
design.”
—Rodney Fitch, Fitch & Co.
Source: Insights, definitions of design, the Design Council [UK]
Hypothesis: Men
cannot
design for women’s
!!??
needs
… this will be
the woman’s
century …
“I speak to you with a feminine voice.
It’s the voice of democracy, of equality.
I
am certain, ladies and
gentlemen, that this will be the
women’s century. In the Portuguese
language, words such as life, soul, and
hope are of the feminine gender, as are
other words like courage and sincerity,”
—President Dilma Rousseff
of Brazil, 2011, 1st woman opening keynote,
United Nations General Assembly
“Forget China, India
and the Internet:
Economic Growth Is
Driven by
Women.”
Source: Headline, Economist
W>
2X (C + I)*
*“Women now drive the global economy. Globally, they control about $20
trillion in consumer spending, and that figure could climb as high as
$28 trillion in the next five
years
. Their $13 trillion in total yearly earnings could reach $18
trillion in the same period.
In aggregate, women represent a growth market bigger than China and
India combined—more than twice as big in fact. Given those numbers, it would be foolish to ignore or underestimate
the female consumer. And yet many companies do just that—even ones that are confidant that they have a winning
strategy when it comes to women. Consider Dell’s …”
Source: Michael Silverstein and Kate Sayre, “The Female Economy,” HBR, 09.09
“Women are
the majority
market”
—Fara Warner/The Power of the Purse
“AS LEADERS,
WOMEN
RULE:
New Studies find that
female managers outshine their male
counterparts in almost every measure”
TITLE/ Special Report/ BusinessWeek
“Headline 2020:
Women Hold
80 Percent of
Management and
Professional Jobs”
Source: The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will
Reshape the World in the Next 20 Years, James Canton
22/1/10 (USA adult
population will have grown
by 23 million between 2006
and 2016. Ages 18-49 will
have grown by one million,
age 50+ will have grown
by 22 million)
1/8/20
Date: 1/1/11
Activity: USA Boomers
start turning 65
Rate:
1 every 8 seconds
Duration: 20 years
Impacted: EVERYTHING
44-65:
“New
Customer
Majority”
Source: Ageless Marketing, David Wolfe & Robert Snyder
Up,
Up,
Up,
Up
the Value-added Ladder …
M
IB
to
B
I
M
Planetary Rainmaker-in-Chief!
“[CEO Sam] Palmisano’s
strategy is to expand tech’s
borders by pushing users—
and entire industries—toward
radically different business
models. The payoff for IBM would be
access to an ocean of revenue—Palmisano
estimates it at $500 billion a year —
that technology companies have never been
able to touch.” —Fortune
“Satisfaction” vs. “Success”
“ ‘Results’ are measured
by the success of all
those who have
purchased your product
or service” —Jan Gunnarsson & Olle Blohm,
The Welcoming Leader
“WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU?”
“It’s all about solutions. We
talk with customers about
how to run better, stronger,
cheaper supply chains. We
have 1,000 engineers who
work with customers …”
—Bob Stoffel, UPS senior exec
“THE GIANT STALKING BIG OIL: How
Schlumberger Is
Rewriting the Rules of the Energy
Game.”: “IPM [Integrated Project
Management] strays from
[Schlumberger’s] traditional role
as a service provider and moves
deeper into areas once dominated
by the majors.”
Source: BusinessWeek cover story, January 2008
MasterCard
Advisors
/46
“We made mistakes, of course. Most of them were
omissions we didn’t think of when we initially wrote the
software. We fixed them by doing it over and over, again
and again. We do the same today. While our competitors
are still sucking their thumbs trying to make the design
perfect, we’re already on prototype version
#5.
By
the time our rivals are ready with wires and screws, we
are on version
#10. It gets back to
planning versus acting: We act
from day one; others plan how
to plan—for months.”
—Bloomberg by Bloomberg
READY.
FIRE.
AIM.
H. Ross Perot (vs “Aim! Aim! Aim!” /EDS vs GM/1985)
Lesson46:
WTTMTW
Whoever
Tries
The
Most
Things
Wins
Better yet:
WTTMTTFW
Whoever
Tries
The
Most
Things
The
Fastest
Wins
“Experiment
fearlessly”
Source: Bloomberg BusinessWeek, “Type A Organization Strategies:
Tactic #1
How to Hit a Moving Target”—
“relentless trial
and error”
Source: Wall Street Journal, cornerstone of effective approach to “rebalancing” company
portfolios in the face of changing and uncertain global economic conditions (11.08.10)
“The secret of fast
progress is
inefficiency, fast
and furious and
numerous failures.”
—Kevin Kelly
“Rose gardeners face a choice every spring. The long-term fate of a rose garden
depends on this decision. If you want to have the largest and most glorious roses of the
neighborhood, you will prune hard. This represents a policy of low tolerance and tight
control. You force the plant to make the maximum use of its available resources, by
Pruning hard is a
dangerous policy in an unpredictable environment. Thus, if
you are in a spot where you know nature may play tricks
on you, you may opt for a policy of high tolerance. You will
never have the biggest roses, but you have a muchenhanced chance of having roses every year. You will
achieve a gradual renewal of the plant. In short, tolerant
pruning achieves two ends: (1) It makes it easier to cope
with unexpected environmental changes. (2) It leads to a
continuous restructuring of the plant. The policy of
tolerance admittedly wastes resources—the extra buds
drain away nutrients from the main stem. But in an
unpredictable environment, this policy of tolerance makes
the rose healthier in the long run.” —Arie De Geus, The Living Company
putting them into the the rose’s ‘core business.’
The Power of
Co-creation
The Bottleneck …
“The Bottleneck … Is at
the Top of the Bottle”
“Where are you likely to find people
with the least diversity of experience,
the largest investment in the past,
and the greatest reverence for
industry dogma …
At the top!”
— Gary Hamel/Harvard Business Review
“Who’s the most
interesting person
you’ve met in the
last 90 days? How
do I get in touch
with them?”
—Fred Smith
… and just wait
“I am often asked by
would-be entrepreneurs
seeking escape from life
within huge corporate
structures, ‘How do I
build a small firm for
myself?’ The answer
seems obvious …
Source: Paul Ormerod, Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics
“I am often asked by would-be entrepreneurs seeking escape from
life within huge corporate structures, ‘How do I build a small firm for
Buy a
very large
one and just
wait.”
myself?’ The answer seems obvious:
—Paul Ormerod, Why Most Things Fail:
Evolution, Extinction and Economics
“Mr. Foster and his McKinsey colleagues
collected detailed performance data stretching
back
40 years for 1,000
They found that
U.S. companies.
none
of
the long-term survivors managed to
outperform the market. Worse, the
longer companies had been in the
database, the worse they did.”
—Financial Times
“Data drawn from the real world
attest to a fact that is beyond
Everything
in existence tends
to deteriorate.”
our control:
—Norberto Odebrecht, Education Through Work
MittELstand* **
*“agile creatures darting between the legs
of the multinational monsters”(Bloomberg
BusinessWeek)
**E.g. Goldmann Produktion
“Be the best.
It’s the only
market that’s
not crowded.”
From: Retail Superstars: Inside the 25 Best
Independent Stores in America, George Whalin
14,000
20,000
14,000/eBay
20,000/Amazon
30/Craigslist
Kevin Roberts’ Credo
1. Ready. Fire! Aim.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
If it ain’t broke ... Break it!
Hire crazies.
Ask dumb questions.
Pursue failure.
Lead, follow ... or get out of the way!
Spread confusion.
Ditch your office.
Read odd stuff.
10.
Avoid moderation!