Transcript Older Moms Deliver PPS . How Increased Births to Older Mothers Are Impacting School Enrollment Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson Population Research Center Portland State University Western Division.

Older Moms Deliver
PPS
.
How Increased Births to Older Mothers
Are Impacting School Enrollment
Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson
Population Research Center
Portland State University
Western Division Canadian
Association of Geographers,
Nanaimo, BC, 2009
What our research is about
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An outgrowth of our demographic support for Portland Public
Schools, one part being enrollment forecast for the District
and its schools.
Illustrates the use GIS tools to analyze demographic changes
at macro and micro levels.
Shows some of the ways in which we link birth trends to
housing trends and gentrification of Portland neighborhoods.
A work in progress.
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An Oregonian
article in Fall 2008
noted the increase
in kindergarten
enrollments.
What factors lay
behind this
upturn, especially
in parts of the
District where
enrollments have
been declining for
years?
The Ups and Downs of Enrollment
Historical Enrollments in Portland Public Schools
90,000
80,000
70,000
Enrolled
Echo of
Baby Boom
WWII
Baby
Boom
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
Post
1996
Declines
Baby
Boom
ends
The
Depression
20,000
10,000
0
2005
1995
1985
1975
1965
1955
1945
1935
1925
1915
1905
1895
1885
1875
Year
Housing in the District
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Most of the single
family building
permits were issued
for areas outside of
the District ( in
yellow)
The multifamily units
in the core area (A)
of the District house
few school age
children
Other than the
Forest Park area (B),
single family
construction has had
a modest impact on
the District’s
enrollment.
B
A
Pearl District Loft
Condos, about one PPS
student per 200 units
Infill? Mostly too
small for families
with kids.
Losses from Birth to KG

The
combination
of net outmigration and
losses to
private
schools means
fewer KG
students than
children born
5 years prior.
Further Losses in the Middle Grades
Age Specific Fertility Rates in 2000
Age Specific Fertility Rates
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Age Specific fertility - the
numbers of births by age
of mother.
The time dimension here
is the age cohort of
women
The clock with the rose
sector shows birth rates
for the age cohort
The “biological clock”
Age Specific Birth Rates – Animation
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Income and
ethnicity impact
birth rates
H
B
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Minority mothers
are younger H, B
Affluent mothers
are older $
H
$$
$
$
$$
$$
$
$
$
$
H
Proportion of Births
to Older Mothers
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There was growth in the births to
older mothers across the District
But that on the east side was mainly
after 2000
Here is the same series of maps animated
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Who are the
older moms?
More
educated and
affluent.
Married later
and
postponed
motherhood.
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The decline in births to younger mothers was
nearly equal to the increase to older mothers.
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Total births stayed about the same
The Map and the Graph
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The changing spatial and temporal trends in births by
age of mother lead to …
a changing geography of births and …
school enrollment.
X
=
Change in Birth
Density
X
The mauve areas show where the density of
births to older mothers has increased. The
areas labeled “A”, “B”, and “C” are the largest
concentrations and will be discussed as “focus
areas”. The area labeled “X” represents loss of
African Americans birth mothers.
Change in Housing
Values
In the circled areas of interest housing
values have increased rapidly from the
$200,000 range to the $300,000 and
$400,000 range. The “older moms” were
able to move in before the prices
escalated
Change in Percent with 4 Year
Degree or Higher
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This map is based on census
data for 1990 and 2000 and
shows where the percent
with a 4 year degree or
higher have increased.
This is a common identifier
for gentrification.
Note the correspondence
between areas “A”, “B”, and
“C” where the density of
births to older mothers
increased
Growth in the “Young Family Aged”
Population from 1990 to 2000
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Young families
here are those in
their 20’s in 1990
and their age 4
and under
children.
In the blue areas
persons in these
age groups
increased, over
30% in some
census tracts.
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Change in KG-02
Enrollment
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In the focus areas (A, B, C) enrollment
declined from 1999 to 2003
But reversed and increased from 2003 to
2007
In area “C” enrollment growth cancelled
by exodus of Blacks to suburbs
Decrease
Increase
The Exodus of Black Students
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Animation shows
Black students per
acre
In 1996 52% of the
Black students in the
District resided in the
“core area”, shown in
red.
By 2006 the value
had fallen to 31%.
We shift now from
the macro scale GIS
analysis to the quasi
household level.
Shift in the Mode of Analysis
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The preceding slides were based on traditional GIS
overlay analysis in which the spatial association of
events is noted.
The following slides illustrate a quasi household level
of analysis.
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Geo-coded birth records were linked to the Multnomah
Co. tax-lot files and
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The characteristics of the mothers and their housing
were cross-tabulated.
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Why? Explore temporal relationships; better
understand causes
Births by Housing Type
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The largest number of
births were to mothers
living in single family
owner occupied
housing.
The highly educated
and older mothers were
generally housed in
larger homes.
But the results of these
analyses are nuanced
and not fully
understood.
Older Moms Are a
Highly Educated Group
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Most older
moms have at
least
completed HS
For the focus
areas most
have at least a
4 year degree
They didn’t just move in
before the birth occurred
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Most of the older
moms move in over
4 years before the
birth occurred
For the focus areas
more were recent
arrivals.
Again, data are for
mothers in single
family owner
occupied housing
Conclusions
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“The growth is welcome, albeit unexpected” .
– It should have been expected since it had its beginnings in the
gentrification of the 1990’s.
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The growth of enrollment in the lower grades in the focus areas is a result
of postponed births to older moms plus better retention of these
households.
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The older mothers are a special group, much more educated and affluent.
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The GIS analysis of the data shows clear spatial relationships between the
concentrations of births to older moms and gentrification trends in Portland.
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The analysis at the individual/housing unit level shows a more complicated
story which we are still attempting to unravel
PPS
Contact information:
Population Research Center, Portland State University
Richard Lycan – [email protected], 503-725-5158
Charles Rynerson – [email protected], 503-725-5157
Credits:
Portland Public Schools, Multnomah Co. GIS,
Metro, and the Oregon Health Division for the
data used in the research. My grand daughter,
Paula Lycan, for the stork and school drawing.
Questions?
Comments?
Rebuttals?