Transcript Energy Efficiency: US and California Success Stories NARUC 31 July 2006 San Francisco Arthur H.

Energy Efficiency:
US and California Success Stories
NARUC
31 July 2006
San Francisco
Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner
California Energy Commission
(916) 654-4930
[email protected]
http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
1949
2
Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005
25.0
thousand Btu/$ (in $2000)
20.0
If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year
15.0
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)
10.0
5.0
3
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
0.0
Energy Consumption in the United States 1949 - 2005
200
$ 1.7
Trillion
175
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
Quads/Year
150
125
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year
$ 1.0
Trillion
100
New Physical Supply = 25 Q
75
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)
50
70 Quads per year saved or avoided
corresponds to 1 Billion cars off the
road
25
4
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
0
How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency?
 Easiest to tease out is cars
– In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons
– Now about 21 miles per gallon
– If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay
$225 Billion more at 2006 prices
– But we still pay $450 Billion per year
– If California wins the “Schwarzenegger-Pavley” suit, and it is
implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year
 Commercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year
 Appliances and Buildings are more complex
– We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from
smokestack to service economy).
5
How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)?
 Some examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974
efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies
Billion $
Space Heating
Air Conditioning
Refrigerators
Fluorescent Tube Lamps
Compact Floursecent Lamps
40
30
15
5
5
Total
95
 Beginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by
losses
– This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide
 Out of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is
structural, 1/3 is transportation, and 1/3 is buildings and
industry.
6
A supporting analysis on the topic of efficiency
from Vice-President Dick Cheney
 “Had energy use kept pace with economic growth, the
nation would have consumed 171 quadrillion British
thermal units (Btus) last year instead of 99 quadrillion
Btus”
 “About a third to a half of these savings resulted from
shifts in the economy. The other half to two-thirds resulted
from greater energy efficiency”
Source: National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy
Development Group, Dick Cheney, et. al., page 1-4, May 2001
Cheney could have noted that 72 quads/year saved in the
US alone, would fuel one Billion cars, compared to a
world car count of only 600 Million
7
Energy Intensity -- California and the United States
Intensity (thousand Btus per $ measured in year 2000 $)
20
18
16
14
12
10
54%
8
46%
6
US down to 54% of 1973 intensity
4
California down to 46% of 1973 intensity
2
year
8
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
0
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)
(kWh/person) (2005 to 2008 are forecast data)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
California
United States
9
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001
(Fossil Fuel Combustion Only)
25.00
United States
20.00
Tons of CO2 per person
Netherlands
15.00
Canada
Australia
Belgium
California
Denmark
Germany
10.00
Austria
Japan
New
Zealand
Italy
Switzerland
S. Korea
France
5.00
Mexico
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar)
10
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
MPG - Converted to CAFE Test Cycle
(1) dotted lines denote proposed standards
(2) MPG = miles per gallon
11
Index (1972 = 1.00) of U.S. Energy Use, GDP, Energy Intensity and Carbon Dioxide
last 10-year CO2 growth = 1.3% per year
3.00
2.71
2.50
2.00
e/gdp
quads
gdp
CO2 (combustion)
1.50
1.37
1.33
(est.)
1.00
0.50
12
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
0.00
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_use/total/csv/use_csv
14,000
United States
California
New York
12,000
kWh/person
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
year
13
1985
1990
1995
2000
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
16,000
Red States 2004 Election
United States
Blue States 2004 Election
California
14,000
kWh/person
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
year
14
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
19
60
0
Per Capita Elec Sales Grouped
by Residential State Building Code Status 1960 - 2001
16,000
14,000
kWh per person
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2003 - 2004 IECC
No code or other
California
New York
year
15
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances
110
90
Effective Dates of
National Standards
Effective Dates of
State Standards
80
Gas Furnaces
=
100
Index (1972 = 100)
=
75%
70
60%
60
Central A/C
50
SEER = 13
40
Refrigerators
30
25%
20
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Year
Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,
in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org
16
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time
25
1,800
1,600
20
1,400
1,200
Refrigerator
Size (cubic ft)
st
1 Federal
Standard 1992
1,000
800
10
600
Energy Use per Unit
(kWh/Year)
400
200
5
71% reduction in 28 yrs
= 4.4% year
0
1947
17
15
0
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
Source: David Goldstein
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
Refrigerator volume (cubic feet)
Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh/yr)
2,000
New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time
and Retail Prices
2,000
25
Average Energy Use or Price
1,600
20
1,400
1,200
$ 1,270
Refrigerator
Size (cubic ft)
15
1,000
800
10
600
Energy Use per Unit
(kWh/Year)
400
$ 462 5
Refrigerator Price
in 1983 $
200
0
1947
18
0
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
Source: David Goldstein
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
Refrigerator volume (cubic feet)
1,800
New Refrigerator Energy Use: 71% will be saved when stock
completely turns over to 2001 Standards
300
Billion kWh per Year
250
Energy
Saved
200
150
Energy
Needed
100
50
Energy
Needed
0
At 1974 Efficiency
19
At 2002 Efficiency
Annual Energy Saved vs. Several Sources of Supply
800
nuclear energy
700
Billion kWh/year
600
500
400
300
Energy Saved
Refrigerator Stds 100 Million 1 KW
200
PV systems
100
0
20
conventional hydro
renewables
Value of Energy to be Saved (at 8.5 cents/kWh, retail price) vs.
Several Sources of Supply in 2005 (at 3 cents/kWh, wholesale price)
25
nuclear energy
Billion $ (US)/year in 2005
20
Energy Saved
Refrigerator Stds
15
10
100 Million 1 KW
PV systems
conventional hydro
5
renewables
0
21
United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with
Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time
Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year)
2000
1800
Estimated Standby
Power (per house)
1600
1400
Refrigerator Use per
Unit
1978 Cal Standard
1200
1987 Cal Standard
1000
1980 Cal Standard
800
1990 Federal
Standard
600
400
1993 Federal
Standard
2001 Federal
Standard
200
22
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
1947
0
Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements
三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比
120
TWh
Value of TWh
Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh
Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh
100
7.5
Air Conditioners
空调
80
6.0
Air
Conditioners
空调
TWH/Year
2005 Stds
60
4.5
2000 Stds
If Energy
Star
40
3.0
2005 Stds
Refrigerators
冰箱
20
1.5
2000 Stds
0
23
3 Gorges
三峡
Refrigerators
冰箱
3 Gorges
三峡
Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations
provided by David Fridley, LBNL
标准生效后，10年节约电量
Value (billion $/year)
If Energy Star
Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
45,000
~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003
40,000
35,000
GWh/year
30,000
25,000
Utility Efficiency
Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
20,000
15,000
Building Standards
10,000
5,000
Appliance Standards
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2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
0
Annual Peak Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
14,000
~ 22% of Annual Peak in California in 2003
12,000
MW/year
10,000
8,000
Utility Efficiency
Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
6,000
4,000
Building Standards
2,000
Appliance Standards
25
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
0
26
Illuminating Space vs. the Street
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Figure 8
Comparison of EE Program Costs to Supply Generation Costs
0.180
Supply Options
0.160
0.140
$/kWh
0.120
0.100
0.167
0.080
0.060
0.118
Demand
0.040
0.058
0.020
0.029
0.000
Average Cost of EE Programs
for 2000-2004
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Base Load Generation
Shoulder Generation
Peak Generation
California IOU’s Investment
in Energy Efficiency
$1,000
Millions of $2002 per Year
$900
$800
Performance
Incentives
Profits
decoupled
from sales
$600
IRP
Market
Restructuring
2% of 2004
IOU Electric
Revenues
$700
Forecast
Crisis
$500
$400
$300
$200
Public Goods Charges
$100
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2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
$0
Energy Action Plan
The Energy Action Plan is driven by the Loading Order contained in the
multi-agency Energy Action Plan. Since its enactment in 2003, the
Loading Order has been integrated into the major CPUC decisions
governing energy policy and procurement. Energy resources are
prioritized as follows:
 1. Energy Efficiency/Demand Response
 2. Renewable Generation, including renewable DG
 3. Increased development of affordable & reliable conventional
generation
 4. Transmission expansion to support all of California’s energy
goals.
30
Critical Peak Pricing (CPP)
with additional curtailment option
Potential Annual Customer Savings:
10 afternoons x 4 hours x 1kw = 40 kWh at 70 cents/kWh = ~$30/year
80
?
70
CPP Price Signal
Price (cents/kWh)
60
Standard TOU
Critical Peak Price
Standard Rate
10x per year
Extraordinary
Curtailment
Signal, < once
per year
50
40
30
20
10
0
31
Sunday
Monday
Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Climate Zone 4 (Very Hot Areas) on CPP Days
3
Control
2.5
CPP - F
TOU
kW
2
1.5
1
0.5
hour ending
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24
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22
21
20
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18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
The Rosenfeld Fund
at the Energy Foundation
Interests that I’d like to pursue with the Fermi Prize $375,000
1. In the Developing World: appropriate technology which also reduces
carbon emissions
 Replacing Kerosene Lamps with LEDs and PV arrays
 Ultra violet water purification systems
 Efficient cook stoves for the Darfur refugee camps
2. Worldwide: Robust Building Technology
 Seismic resistant insulated panel construction
 White and cool-colored roofs
 Cool Communities
3. Support for Graduate Students in fields related to Energy Efficiency
www.EF.org
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LEDs Powered with Photovoltaics
 Evan Mills at LBNL points out the following: If 1 billion people could
replace kerosene lamps with LEDs, emissions would drop by the
equivalent of 1 million barrels of petroleum per day
 http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills/PUBS/Fuel_Based_Lighting.html
35
UV Water Purification
36
Ultra Violet Water Purification for Villages
in Developing World
Ashok Gadgil at LBNL points out if UV treatment replaces boiling
10 tons of water per day, each system avoids 4 tons of CO2 per
day








37
Meet / exceed WHO and US EPA criteria
Energy efficient: 60 watts disinfects 1 ton / hour
Low cost: 4 cents disinfects a ton of water
Reliable, Mature components
Can treat un-pressurized water
Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
Low maintenance: once every three months
http://www.waterhealth.com/
Dr. Ashok Gadgil’s Darfur Cookstove Project
In Nov.-Dec. 2005, he visited Darfur
camps, and showed that with a
$10 metal stove, and training to
use it, only half the fuelwood is
needed.
The stove saves fuelwood worth
$160 annually for a refugee
family
Since that time, Ashok Gadgil has
improved stove efficiency by
another factor of two
http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/p
url/878538hMpqN3/878538.PDF
38
Residence after 1999 earthquake near Istanbul
39
Apartments after Earthquake
40
 Cement
Board in 3 thicknesses 7/16” to
3/4”
 Used for roofing, flooring, interior and
exterior walls
 EPS cores from 3.5” to 11.25”
Adhesive
Cement (Hardie Board)
EPS (‘Styrofoam’)
Fiber
http://www.fas.org/main/home.jsp
41
Truck Supported by Panels
(6” expanded polystyrene clad with plywood. Pickup supported by 2 panels each 4’ x 24’)
Afghan Refugee Housing, 2002
43