Transcript PLANSAFE NCHRP 8-44(02): TRANSPORTATION SAFETY PLANNING: FORECASTING THE SAFETY IMPACTS IN SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES Ida van Schalkwyk Oregon State University [email protected] In cooperation with Dr.

PLANSAFE
NCHRP 8-44(02): TRANSPORTATION SAFETY
PLANNING: FORECASTING THE SAFETY IMPACTS IN SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND SAFETY COUNTERMEASURES
Ida van Schalkwyk
Oregon State University
[email protected]
In cooperation with
Dr. Simon Washington @ UC Berkeley
Daehyun You @ ASU
September 11th, 2009
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
OVERVIEW
• The need
• NCHRP 8-44
Overview of
NCHRP 8-44(2)
September 11th, 2009
What is
PLANSAFE
• Value
• When and how it can
be used
•
•
•
•
Overview
PLANSAFE Analysis
PLANSAFE GIS
PLANSAFE Census
The PLANSAFE
Software
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
Need & Project Objectives
OVERVIEW OF NCHRP 8-44(2)
THE NEED
Safety
DecisionMaking
Process
How do we incorporate safety into the long
range transportation planning process?
September 11th, 2009
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
NCHRP 8-44(02) OBJECTIVES
Forecast Safety
• A robust, defensible, and accurate analytical set of algorithms
to forecast the safety impacts of engineering and behavioral
countermeasure investments at the planning-level
Software Tool
• User-friendly software, compatible to the extent possible with
planning-level data inputs, to incorporate the analytical
procedures for forecasting safety
• Guidance materials to accompany the analytical procedures
and software
September 11th, 2009
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
Background to the software tool
WHAT IS PLANSAFE?
USING PLANSAFE
Changes
at the
area-level
E.g. increase
population density
Effect on
safety?
Impact on fatal & disabling
injury crash severity?
September 11th, 2009
Estimate effect of
• Socio-demographic changes
• Network related changes
(volumes, large scale
projects)
• Engineering & behavioral
countermeasures @
planning level
on crashes @ the
planning level
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
USING PLANSAFE
PLANNING LEVEL
CRASH ESTIMATION
• Measure/estimate areawide effects on crashes
• Compare scenarios
– Growth
– Network changes
– Future forecasts (demand
models)
– Area-wide countermeasure
implementation
September 11th, 2009
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
Tools within PLANSAFE
THE PLANSAFE SOFTWARE PACKAGE
THE SOFTWARE PACKAGE
Dataset preparation
INPUT DATA
- GIS Shape Files
(Polygon/Line/Point)
- Census Data
PLANSAFE
GIS Tool
Analysis/
Prediction
PLANSAFE
Main Tool
PLANSAFE
Census Tool
FORECAST SAFETY
with/without countermeasure or different development scenarios at the planning level
September 11th, 2009
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
What can the PLANSAFE main analysis tool do?
PLANSAFE MAIN ANALYSIS TOOL
COMPARE CRASH OUTCOMES FOR
DIFFERENT GROWTH SCENARIOS
a) Either import future transportation demand model information
Future
Transportation
Supply/Demand
PLANSAFE
GIS Tool
Future Census
Information
OR
b) Apply growth factor to target area to account for future growth
September 11th, 2009
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
AND/OR –
EVALUATE IMPACT OF COUNTERMEASURE @
L
FUTURE POINT IN TIME @ P
LANNING EVEL
• PLANSAFE includes
Countermeasure Effect
Resource Table
– STEP 1: Prepare Data
– STEP 2: Identify Target
Area
– STEP 3: Select the
countermeasure
• From resource table (drop
down menu); or
• Add your own
– STEP 4: Results!
September 11th, 2009
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
EXAMPLE OF INFORMATION IN
PLANSAFE COUNTERMEASURE RESOURCE TABLE
September 11th, 2009
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES
BUILT-IN SPFS
• KABCO crashes (All crashes)
• KA crashes (Fatal & Incapacitating Injury Crashes)
• KAB crashes (Fatal, Incapacitating & Non-
PLANSAFE assess the
goodness-of-fit of the
built-in and provided
models
Incapacitating Crashes)
• Bicycle crashes
• Pedestrian crashes
• Deer crashes (some regions
experience high proportions of
deer/animal crashes)
BUT: YOU CAN ADD YOUR OWN
SAFETY PERFORMANCE FUNCTIONS
September 11th, 2009
Automatically select the
best fitting model
Calibrate automatically
Provides results
Oregon Transportation Summit in Portland, OR
RESULTS
RESULTS
Crash data
(GIS)
Roadway
information
(TDM, HPMS
etc.)
Sociodemographics
(census, local
surveys)
INPUT
DATA
Other local
data
Helping you get the data ready for the PLANSAFE Analysis Tool
SUPPLEMENTAL TOOLS
PLANSAFE Supplemental Tool
PLANSAFE GIS TOOL
PLANSAFE GIS TOOL
ROAD
NETWORK:
functional class,
AADT, length
CRASH DATA:
severity, special
users, collision types
(has to be
geocoded!)
SOCIODEMOGRAPHICS:
population, children,
working adults,
population density
Assigned in GIS to Study Areas (census block groups, TAZs, etc.)
PLANSAFE GIS TOOL
Makes data preparation in ArcGIS super easy
Point-in-Polygon
Aggregation Tool
• Calculates the number
of points in each
polygon
• Total number of
crashes/polygon
• Total number of
intersections/polygon
•
•
•
•
Line-in-Polygon
Aggregation Tool
• Calculates the values of
line features, which fall
in each polygon
• Total AADT/polygon
• Total roadway
length/polygon
End-node
Integration Tool
• Creates an intersection
point file
TAZ boundaries are often major roadways
Geospatial differences: roadways and boundaries don’t line up and if
they do – where do they belong?
Crashes occur on roadways that form boundaries – where do they
belong?
Agencies usually don’t have an intersection GIS layer
PLANSAFE Supplemental Tool
PLANSAFE CENSUS TOOL
PLANSAFE CENSUS TOOL
Analysis by TAZs
Tool imports
BG data
Provide
polygon to
polygon
intersect
output from
ArcGIS to Tool
Tool generates
sociodemographic
variables for
predictive
analysis in
PLANSAFE Main
Tool
Analysis by BGs
Tool imports
BG data
Tool generates
sociodemographic
variables for
predictive
analysis in
PLANSAFE Main
Tool
Analysis
by tract
or
county
Absolutely NOT
recommended
WHEN WILL PLANSAFE BE AVAILABLE?
• NCHRP 8-44(2) is wrapping up the project
(product delivery will likely be within the next
month)
• Project Report and Product Submittal to
NCHRP panel
• Standard TRB process to release for public use
KEY CONTACTS
• TRB/ NCHRP
– Rick Pain: [email protected], (202)334-2964
– Chuck Niessner: [email protected], (202) 3341431
• NCHRP 8-44(2)
– Principal Investigator: Simon Washington,
[email protected], 510 643-1770
– Predictive Modeling & Software Tool: Ida van
Schalkwyk, [email protected]
THE END – OR JUST THE BEGINNING…
QUESTIONS?