GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A.

Transcript GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A.

GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A. Boone, M.Ek and other panel members WGNE annual meeting March 2014 © Crown copyright Met Office

Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)

The aim of GLASS is to promote community activities that improve: 1.

our best estimates and the model representation of state variables 1.

our understanding of land/atmosphere feedbacks 1.

our understanding of the role of land surface in predictability . © Crown copyright Met Office

GLASS Project Updates :

Cross-Cutting projects/actions: GLACE2 – Links to S2S (land sfc adding to predictability) LUCID2 ALMIP2 – Links to iLeaps – Links to GHP DICE – Links to GASS PLUMBER – Links to GHP

Launching in next 12 months:

GSWP3 – PILDAS – Links to carbon community (iLEAPS) Links to WGNE

Being planned

LoCo SGP testbed...

GABLS4-

DICE-over-ICE

? (joint GASS-GLASS) © Crown copyright Met Office

Follow up to GSWP2 (1986-1995) : NEW aspects :

• Provide a comprehensive set of land surface states for the period including entire 20th century and recent years (~1901 – recent) that can serve as a long-term land surface reanalysis suite.

• Include carbon models, to explore/attribute a possible carbon-related effect or changes in Hydro-Energy-Eco functioning.

• Explore uncertainties of input datasets and their propagation through different schemes (LSMs) and super-ensembles (multi-input and multi- model, 1979 - present).

• Uncertainty in future land surface states (multi-GCMs and scenarios, 2000 - 2100) • Build a robust evaluation framework through component-wise verification (e.g. routing scheme for a validation of discharge (flux); GRACE for a validation of terrestrial water storage variation (storage)) • Includes engagement of the carbon community and inclusion of a suite of LSMs in varying hydrological and carbon treatments.

GSWP-3: Long term retrospective Exp

Project for the Intercomparison of Land Data Assimilation Systems (PILDAS):

Objectives Enable better communication among developers of land data assimilation systems (LDAS) Develop and test a framework for LDAS comparison and evaluation Compare land assimilation methods (EnKF, EKF...).

Conduct sensitivity studies of assimialtion input parameters (such as model and observation errors).

Provide guidance and priorities for future land assimilation research and applications Ultimately, produce enhanced global datasets of land surface fields © Crown copyright Met Office

PILDAS : setup

PALS-current & perspectives

The development of a beta version of the Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS, http:// pals.unsw.edu. au) is underway.

• PALS is a web application for evaluating land surface models and the observed data sets used to test them (e.g.

FLUXNET, GHP).

• The PALS website is designed to analyze in a standard way uploaded single site model simulations with FLUXNET and other observations.

• A related activity is that of a joint GHP-GLASS project to demonstrate benchmarking approaches using PALS, and establishing empirical benchmarks in PALS from which to evaluate a suite of models.

PLUMBER sites

E GM D D E B E C E E D G G W S B W B E – Evergreen Needleleaf B – Evergreen Broadleaf D – Deciduous Broadleaf M C – Mixed Forest G - Grassland – Cropland W – Woody Savanna S – Savanna P – Permanent Wetlands

Rankings relative to benchmarks

Mean Bias Error Normalised Mean Error Standard Deviation Correlation coefficient MBE NME sd r © Crown copyright Met Office

Range of Sites for Radiation

Hyytiala Mopane © Crown copyright Met Office

Range of Sites for Precipitation

Kruger Palang © Crown copyright Met Office

GLACE-CMIP5

Aims:

Investigate effects of changes in soil moisture content and soil moisture-climate coupling for future climate projections • Impacts on regional climate (temperature extremes, precipitation) • • • Shifts in hot spots of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling Impacts on global carbon cycle Interactions with land use changes © Crown copyright Met Office 16

Experimental set-up

Soil moisture (point in Central Europe) GLACE-CMIP5 investigates the impact of

decadal changes in soil moisture

on climate (Focus on climate change projections ≠ GLACE-1 and GLACE-2: Focus on sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting) 17 © Crown copyright Met Office

Participating groups

• • • • • • Design: ETH Zurich (Sonia Seneviratne), KNMI (Bart van den Hurk) • Analysis: ETH Zurich (Sonia Seneviratne, Micah Wilhelm, Tanja Stanelle)

MPI-ESM CESM

: Dave Lawrence, Matthew Higgins

EC-Earth

: Stefan Hagemann, Victor Brovkin, Martin Claussen : Arndt Meier, Ben Smith, Markku Rummukainen, Bart van den Hurk

GFDL

: Alexis Berg, Sergey Malyshev, Kirsten Findell

IPSL

: Frederique Cheruy, Agnès Ducharne, Joséfine Ghattas, Jean-Louis Dufresne • Additional interested participants: Paul Dirmeyer, Pierre Friedlingstein, Randy Koster, Julia Pongratz © Crown copyright Met Office S.I. Seneviratne, ETH Zurich / GLACE-CMIP5 18

Temperature impacts

~18-25% of climate change signal in Mediterranean region due to soil moisture temperature feedbacks

Precipitation impacts

Effects on precipitation are also found, especially in JJA & NH Noisier than for temperature (see DJF) Overall: drier future soils lead to reduced precipitation In absolute terms [mm/d]: larger for precipitation extremes than mean precipitation

GLACE “Hotspot” Regions

Outline of DICE (DIurnal Cycle Experiment)

3b 3a • These stages test:    LSM and SCM stand-alone performance against observations (stage 1) What is the impact of coupling? (stage 2) How sensitive are different LSM and SCM to variations in forcing? (stage 3) © Crown copyright Met Office

Re-visiting GABLS-2

• • CASES-99 campaign Leon, near Witchita, Kansas. 37 o N, -96 o E • • • Relatively flat Prairie grassland 1900 UTC 23 Oct 1999 – 1900 UTC 26 Oct 1999 • • Clear skies   No cloud No precip Different nocturnal BL stability: i.

Intermittant ii.

Turbulent iii.

Model Arome Arpege ECEARTH GDPS3.0

GFDL

Models

Contact scientist Eric Bazille Institute Meteo France Eric Bazille Reinder Ronda Ayrton Zadra Sergey Malyshev Meteo France Wageningen CMC Princeton GISS_E2 Ann Fridlind, Andy Ackerman IFS/HTESSEL MESO_NH Irina Sandu, Gianpaolo Balsamo Maria Jimenez UM/JULES WRF-NOAH WRF Adrian Lock, Martin Best Weiguo Wang Wayne Angevine CAM5, CLM4 David Lawrence PBCM Pierre Gentine © Crown copyright Met Office GISS ECMWF UIB Met Office NUIST NOAA NCAR Columbia All All All Stages submitted All All SCM only All Levels 60/70 60/70 91 79 24 40 137 All All All ?

1a, 1b Not yet 85 70 60 119 ?

Sensitivity tests resolution resolution LAI LAI Bare soil Vegetation Lots!

PBL scheme

Stage 1a

Surface fluxes from 55m-forced LSM

H

Coloured by LSM

LE

U

θ Stage 1b

Near surface evolution

20m θ 55m q

q

θ Stage 1 vs 2

Bulk PBL sensitivity • More spread between models in stage 2 • Interesting lack of spread within (some) models Stage 1b

GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A.

Transcript GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A.