Transcript From centralised coal to decentralised renewable energy with biomass and gas as transition resources - a challenging transition for Poland Grzegorz Wiśniewski Institute for Renewable.

From centralised coal to
decentralised renewable energy
with biomass and gas as transition resources
- a challenging transition for Poland
Grzegorz Wiśniewski
Institute for Renewable Energy, Warsaw, Poland
[email protected]
EU-27 average 30%
Feuels mix (%)
source: Eurostat
Role of coal in electricity generation in the EU
Structure of final renewable energy
consumption in Poland in 2000-2010
-the role of bioenergy
6,00
5,00
Mtoe
4,00
3,00
2,00
1,00
0,00
2000
2001
2002
Individual biomass boilers
2003
2004
Transport fuels
2005
Electricity
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Heat, without individual biomass boiler
Electricity generation from RES in Poland,
2001-2010
2010 TARGET ~11,6 TWh
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
GWh
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000
2001
2002
hydro
2003
wind
2004
biogas
2005
2006
biomass
2007
2008
2009
2010
co-firing
biomass co-firing with the fine coal in power plants dominating the green electricity mix (45%)
Appetite for additional (after 2010)
biomass/arable land in the national
Renewable Energy Action Plans up to 2020
on average 13% of arable land for energy purposes?
6%
1%
4%
Biomass
Hydro
Wind
19%
Solar
70%
Geotherm
al
EU-27 RES mix ‘2007
RES-Electricity forecast for Poland
Current policy &Energy [R]evolution Scenario
(IEO & DLR for Greenpeace Poland ‘2008
Wind+efficiency+gas
350
Primarily energy
demand by 2050
300
Efficiency
Ocean Energy
250
TWh/a
Reference/current official scenario
– „business as usual”
Solar Thermal
PV
200
Geothermal
Wind
Hydro
150
Biomass
350
Gas&oil
100
Coal
300
Nuclear
Ocean Energy
50
Solar Thermal
250
PV
0
Geothermal
200
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Wind
Hydro
150
Biomass
Alternative scenario –clean energy
Gas&oil
100
Coal
Nuclear
50
0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Coal +nuclear
General assumption: reduction of
CO2 emission per capita form 9
ton/ca in ‘2005 to 2,5 ton/ca in
‘2050
Green investment in Poland by 2020
Source: Polish National Renewable Action Plan up
to 2020 (NREAP’2010, IEO assessment ‘2011)
8000
Euro 26 bln for
smart investment
≠ „just cost”
Investment in RES 2011-2020
[mln Euro]
7000
6000
5000
enectricity
heat
4000
3000
RES specific investment
cost [mln Euro/MW]
2000
1000
Biomass boliers
Heat pumps
Solar thermal coll
On shore wind
Geothermal
Hydro >10 MW
Biomass CHP
Hydro 1MW - 10MW
Off shore wind
Hydro<1MW
Small wind turbines
PV
Biogas plants
0
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Does the wind resources (supported
by green energy mix) can deliver
energy for the industry, cities and
rural areal?
Overused of biomass, PV and geothermal grid parity after 2020
 wind supported by gas (including shell gas) as solution ?
• On-shore wind farms as alternative to biomass co-firing
• Challenge: grid connection
• Small wind turbines as input or smart grids, starting from rural
areal/farmers
• Challenge: access to the grid and lack of technologies
• Off-shore wind farms as alternative to nuclear
• Challenge: competition with the nuclear option supported
so far by state policy
Cena energii elektrycznej [zł/MWh]
2,000
400
1,400
320
1,200
1,000
2008
2009
The energy consumption in agricultural sector in Poland
increased significantly (over 30% per year)
LUBUSKIE
2007
PODLASKIE
0
2006
ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE
200
10%
ŚWIĘTOKRZYSKIE
200
WARMIŃSKO-MAZURSKIE
220
OPOLSKIE
400
POMORSKIE
240
20%
KUJAWSKO-POMORSKIE
600
PODKARPACKIE
260
LUBELSKIE
800
ŁÓDZKIE
280
30%
DOLNOŚLĄSKIE
300
40%
ŚLĄSKIE
GWh
340
2005
50%
1,600
MAŁOPOLSKIE
360
60%
1,800
Electricity prices for farmers
[PLZ/kWh], 1€≈4 PLZ
MAZOWIECKIE
380
Electricity use in rural areas, including agricultural production
Growth of use 2004-2009
WIELKOPOLSKIE
Energy price (PLN/MWh)
Energy consumption for agricultural
production; electricity consumption,
prices and growth in Poland/regions
0%
Costs of energy supply in
households and agricultural
households in Poland
30%
• 72% increse of energy
costs in agricultural
households in 2004-2009,
25%
20%
15%
• 34% increse, generally in
households
10%
5%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-5%
2009
• Tendency – increase of
energy costs in agricultural
households is greater for 3
-10%
General households
Farmers households
Energy prices for (small) consumers in rural areas growing faster then in other
sectors and costs of energy supply on farms (agricultural households) increase faster
than in other households
=> On shore wind farms can increase the income (leasing land) & small
wind turbines can reduce the spendings for electricity from the grid
Offshore wind energy market potential on Baltic
Sea, 2030 (source: EU OffshoreGrid project)
Sweden
Russia
Poland
Lithuania
•Significant potential
of Sweden and
Poland, possible to
utilize after 2020
Latvia
Germany
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
0
2 000
4 000
Installations until 2020
www.ieo.pl
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Installations 2020-2030
Challenging and time demanding energy transition
- Bob Dylan song instead of concussion:
„How many roads must a man walk down
Before you call him a man? (…)
How many years can a mountain exist
Before it’s washed to the sea?
…
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind”
By Bob Dylan, Copyright © 1962 by Warner Bros