Emerging ideas on adaptation to climate change Anand Patwardhan Executive Director Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council, Ministry of Science & Technology.
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Emerging ideas on adaptation to climate change Anand Patwardhan Executive Director Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council, Ministry of Science & Technology Outline State of science and evolution of understanding Action on adaptation Staged approach Funding Way forward Research needs (adaptive capacity, indicators) Principles and operationalization Emerging themes May 2006 Adaptation and sustainable development Mainstreaming Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 2 Key concepts Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Types of adaptation include anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences Sensitivity Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. Vulnerability The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 3 Why is adaptation important? Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and significant degree of anthropogenic climate change Managing climate risk is likely to be important for sustainable development For both these reasons, adaptation should be an important part of policy response to climate change May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 4 Evolving ideas on adaptation Adaptation viewed purely as a response mechanism Adaptation as an element of scenario-impact assessments Vulnerability and adaptive capacity as central themes in adaptation Adaptation and sustainable development: mainstreaming adaptation May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 5 Initial thinking on adaptation – a function of response Adaptation viewed as ‘adjustments’ made in ‘practices, processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes in climate’ At the end of the sequential process identified for impact assessments Seven step methodology for impact assessment in the IPCC Second Assessment Report May 2006 Define the problem Select method of assessment Test methods/ conduct sensitivity analysis Select and apply climate change scenarios Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts Assess autonomous adjustments Evaluate adaptation strategies Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 6 Insights from the IPCC Third Assessment Report Vulnerability and adaptation given significant importance in WG II, shift in emphasis from “mechanistic” impact assessment Importance of extreme events, cross-sectoral analysis and multiple stresses Regional predictions still highly uncertain, important phenomena not well captured (monsoon) Focus on adaptation, recognition of the link with development and equity issues, introduce concepts such as adaptive capacity Recognition that those with least resources have the least ability to adapt May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 7 Preliminary ideas from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Adaptation defined as adjustments made to ‘enhance resilience’ or ‘reduce vulnerability’ Adaptation practices may be looked at from various perspectives: Spatial scale Sectors Climate stress / hazard Baseline economic development level of the systems they are implemented in Relating adaptation to adaptive capacity May 2006 Adaptive capacity represents potential rather than actual adaptation Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 8 Research issues in adaptation Indicators and measuring adaptation Adaptive capacity Structuring and formulating adaptation interventions Impacts – proximate, non-proximate; marginal, nonmarginal, stocks vs. flows Interactions across scales (spatial, temporal, institutional) – aggregation issues Extremes and variability Scenarios May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 9 Measuring adaptation What should be measured? May 2006 Hazard Risk Exposure Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation intervention Effectiveness of adaptation intervention Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 10 Adaptive capacity Autonomous – what responses are happening (will happen) automatically? How will impacts be perceived, how will they be evaluated and how will response take place? Who will respond, in what way? Adaptive capacity is influenced not only by factors that promote or constrain the adoption of technologies and management practices, but also by the economic, social, political, environmental, institutional, and cultural factors that create both external and internal incentives as well as barriers to adaptation May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 11 Action on adaptation Types of interventions Financing and supporting adaptation International actions Approach for moving forward May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 12 Range of adaptation responses May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 13 Classifying adaptation measures May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 14 Time-scales of response Anticipatory adaptation to climate change risks may take place at three levels: Adaptation to current variability For observed medium change/variability Long-term changes Responses across the three levels are closely intertwined, and indeed might form a continuum. Visible shift of emphasis from first level to the second and third levels Increasing examples of measures taken to cope with the impacts of observed trends in climate, as well as scenarios of climate change. May 2006 Tsho Rolpa risk reduction project in Nepal Quinhai-Tibet Railway in China Konkan Railway in Western India Thames Barrier in UK Copenhagen metro in Denmark Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 15 Initial thinking on action Adaptation within the financial mechanism of the Convention Identification of need for programming adaptation interventions within the climate change response framework Designing a framework for funding adaptation Initial thoughts on adaptation viewed it as an independent process rather than an action taken in integration with ongoing programmes Thus, the staged approach to adaptation surfaced in the UNFCCC (decision 11/CP.1) May 2006 Views adaptation in three stages of interventions Identifies adaptation interventions as sequential, one leading to another Has been the programming guideline for financing adaptation in the international arena Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 16 Staged approach to adaptation Stage I: planning through studies to identify vulnerabilities (vulnerable countries and regions), policy options (for adaptation response measures), and appropriate capacity building Stage II: identifying measures to prepare for adaptation and further capacity building Stage III: promoting measures to facilitate adaptation, including insurance and other adaptation interventions May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 17 Taking the dialogue further What needs to be funded – guiding principles for funding adaptation Identification of ‘concrete’ – what will define the concrete adaptation measures Mainstreaming – what and how Exploring new mechanisms and tools What should be measured and how – identifying indicators May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 18 What should be funded? What kinds of projects? Pilot vs. full Climate variability vs. anthropogenic climate change Climate and non-climate benefits Are there a set of projects that have unambiguous climate change linkages May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 19 Principles for funding adaptation Automaticity in contributions Adequacy and predictability of resources Move from enabling activities to real projects Guiding the institutional process May 2006 Ensuring flexibility Expediting the process Enabling wider access Re-programming the approach to funding adaptation Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 20 Identifying ‘concrete’ interventions Moving away from the ‘staged approach’ New knowledge acquired on the theme of adaptation suggests that adaptation interventions are NOT sequential Adaptation interventions are now viewed in integration with each other and the development programmes Need for identifying a new approach that identifies major types of interventions that can be taken up across sectors relevant in sustainable development May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 21 Towards a portfolio approach A portfolio of broad interventions for adaptation Interventions may be identified through the views and priorities expressed in the Convention and the various decisions May 2006 Mainstreaming activities Technology development and transfer Insurance Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 22 Technology development and transfer as a tool for adaptation Technology transfer is very relevant Role of traditional knowledge and capturing the value The dialogue needs to be extended to include May 2006 Technology development Adoption of technology Barrier removal Favorable market mechanisms Creating enabling environment Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 23 Insurance Insurance as an instrument for providing ‘risk-cover’ against the impacts of climate change and variability, specifically for extreme weather events. Exploring the tool Creation of viable insurance markets requires risk pooling and reinsurance mechanisms The former might require pooling across sectors and even countries The latter might require access to a source of funds that is generated through automatic contributions Possibilities Public-private partnerships Disaster risk insurance May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 24 Linking adaptation and sustainable development Emerging realization of the links between climate change and sustainable development IPCC (2001) identified that ‘activities required for enhancement of adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to those promoting sustainable development’. It has further been understood that climate change adaptation and equity goals can be achieved through the route taken for achieving development goals such as improving food security, provision of safe drinking water, shelter and health care and access to other resources. May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 25 Mainstreaming adaptation Mainstreaming adaptation into development activities – leverage concessional developmental funds? Increasingly, many developmental activities (for example in infrastructure) are being implemented by the private sector How can we evaluate the portfolio of development projects to: Assess implications of climate change for project benefits? Assess implications of project for reducing vulnerability to climate change? Related question: How can we incrementally adjust project design or implementation to enhance climate change related benefits? Mainstreaming in practice May 2006 Building ownership among stakeholders Engaging private sector as active partners in sustainable development programmes Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 26 Barriers to adaptation Financial Increased realisation that available funding may not always be sufficient to cover the financial requirements of rehabilitation, mitigation and adaptation, specifically in case of extreme events Therefore, Insurance may be an instrument worth exploring Institutional Social and Cultural Technological Informational May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 27 Future directions Research issues in adaptation science Focused research on methodologies for mainstreaming adaptation Development and diffusion of technologies for adaptation in developing countries Fostering public-private partnerships for mainstreaming as well as technology development and transfer Exploring innovative funding mechanisms that provide automaticity for resource generation May 2006 Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover against climate change and variability Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 28