Supply/Demand, Technical and Socio-economic GLOBAL STUDY of FERRMED Great Axis Network and its Area of influence Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations.

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Transcript Supply/Demand, Technical and Socio-economic GLOBAL STUDY of FERRMED Great Axis Network and its Area of influence Presentation of General Content, Conclusions and Recommendations.

Supply/Demand,
Technical
and Socio-economic
GLOBAL STUDY
of FERRMED
Great Axis Network
and its Area of
influence
Presentation of General Content,
Conclusions and Recommendations
1
FERRMED STANDARDS FOR THE RAIL
FREIGHT GREAT AXES
Consortium
 EU Reticular and polycentric network having a great socio-economic
and intermodal impact. In the main branches of great axes two
parallel lines:
 one giving priority or exclusiveness to freight heavy traffic
 another available for passengers and light freight (high sped
trains).
 Loading gauge UIC-C, width of the tracks UIC. Electrified lines.
 Maximum slope 12‰
 Trains length 1500 m. and 3.6005000 tonnes.
 Locomotive and wagon new concept
 Availability of a network of intermodal polyvalent and flexible
terminals
 Unified labour, management and operational systems
 Free Competition
 30÷35% of participation of rail in long distance land transportation
I. SUMMARY
of the
Global Study
Ferrmed
standards
simplified
version
A KEY STRUCTURAL GREAT AXIS NETWORK
FOR WESTERN EUROPE
Consortium
The rail freight network of
the FERRMED Great Axis
interconnects the most
important sea and inland
harbour fronts; and the main
East-West axes of the EU.
Main Trunk Branches Length: 4.500 Km.
TECHNICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND
SUPPLY/DEMAND GLOBAL STUDY
Consortium
Totally business/market orientated with double approach, regional as well as European.
Global study will analyze different modes of freight transportation in the whole network
of the FERRMED Great Axis from three points of view:
• Supply/Demand Analysis
• Technical Analysis
• Socioeconomic and environmental Analysis
The aim is:
•to match different Supply Scenarios with Demand and to balance and optimize the
traffic between different modes of transportation achieving that the rail freight
transportation could reach 30÷35% of the long distance land transportation rate
• to put into practice FERRMED standards improving the conditions of capacity,
intermodality and interoperability of the railway in the afore mentioned network.
RESULT: High priority Rail Freight network (business oriented)
TECHNICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC AND
SUPPLY/DEMAND GLOBAL STUDY
Consortium
SELECTED CONSORTIUM
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
WYG International (UK)
DORSH Consult (Germany)
GESTE ENGINEERING (Switzerland)
INEXIA (France)
NTU (Denmark)
PROGTRANS AG (Switzerland)
RINA INDUSTRY (Italy)
SENER (Spain)
SIGNIFICANCE BV (The Netherlands)
STRATEC (Belgium)
WSP AB (Sweden)
WYG Consulting Group (UK)
Consortium
SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS
The FERRMED “Global” Study
Consortium
• Strategic Transport Planning pre-feasibility
project, including:
• Railway infrastructure (new or upgrading of
existing)
• Necessary investment (including Freight Terminals)
• Operational issues
• Legal and administrative framework
• Environmental concerns
• Economic profitability
• Financing options
• Market opinion (and Market Analysis)
• Four (4) main modules:
• Supply/ Demand analysis
• Technical analysis
• Cost-Benefit analysis
• Legal and administrative
issues
Content
Consortium
1. Scope of the S&D analysis
2. Simulation model (2005)
3. Future Scenarios
4. Forecasting (2020 and 2025)
5. Conclusions of the S&D analysis
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Framework
Consortium
FERRMED Global Study
Data
Collection
SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS
Supply/
Demand
• FERRMED transport planning model
building (base year 2005)
• Definition of 14 future scenarios
(2020-2025)
• Simulation and traffic forecasting
Technical
CBA
Environmental
Administrative
Legal
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Trans-Tools Modelling Platform
Consortium
• Developed under EU funding
• Originally for evaluation of TEN-T projects
• Models passenger and freight transport
across Europe
• Database (2000)
•
•
•
•
transport variables
socioeconomic variables
4 step transport planning model
(macroscopic)
Freight
Demand model
(generation/
distribution)
Passenger
Demand model
(generation/
distribution)
Freight
Modal Split
Passenger
Modal Split
networks
services
• Largest European transport model
Logistics Model
Trans-Tools provides a simulation tool
for strategic analysis
SCOPE
2005
Network
Traffic
Assignment
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Transport Networks (II)
Consortium
 Railways (freight)
 Mixed lines
 Dedicated lines
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
External models for freight demand
Consortium
•
•
1.
Intra Red Banana and export to EU 25
2.
Internal Demand for Red Banana Countries
3.
4 production sectors
•
•
•
•
•
1
At country level
Industry
Agriculture
Construction
Energy
Eurostat data
2
Port Flow Distribution Model
SCOPE
3
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Port Flow Distribution Model
Consortium
• 45 major European ports
included
• 55% total European ports
freight traffic
• 75% of intercontinental
freight traffic in Europe
• Maritime and inland networks
• 4 models built in TransCAD
• containers
• Ro-Ro
• general cargo
• dry bulk
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Traffic Assignment: Rail
Consortium
•
Output in tonnes/day (freight) and pax/day (passengers) converted to traffic
(trains/day)
•
Model calibrated against observed rail traffic data for main lines
•
Local traffic considered separately using different occupancy and loading
factors
•
Traffic split by train type
• Passenger: high speed, intercity, commuter
• Freight: block, wagon and container
2005 Rail Freight Traffic Calibration
2005 Rail Passenger Traffic Calibration
700
250
y=
0.86x +
5.6
Calculated
Modelled
Modelled
Calculated
300
y = 0,86x + 5,64
R2 = 0,88
200
150
100
50
0
0
R2 =500.88
600
y=
0.94x +
6.3
y = 0,94x + 6,26
R2 = 0,95
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
150
200
250
300
0
2 = 0.95
R100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Observed
Observed
Observed
Observed
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
800
Freight Modal Split
Consortium
Freight Modal Split
(2005)
Road
Rail
IWW
Inland Freight Modal Split
(2005)
Sea
Road
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
EU25
Rail
EU25
Red Banana
IWW
Red Banana
(Measured in tonnes-km)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Year 2005 Traffic (III)
Consortium
 Rail Freight (trains/day)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Inland Demand Forecasting
Consortium
Growth Rate Forecasting for Main Socioeconomic Variables
EU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005
GDP (2005 constant price)
Population
Growth Rates Forecasting for Inland Freight Demand
160%
(Intra-Country + Intra Red Banana and Export to EU-25 models)
Base 100: 2005
150%
140%
1. Intra Red Banana - export to EU25
2. Intra-Country
TOT Inland
130%
120%
150%
110%
100%
2005
2010
2015
2020
140%
2025
130%
Growth Rate Forecasting for Production by sector and
Consumption
120%
EU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005
Consumption
Total Production
Construction
Industry
Agriculture
Energy
110%
150%
100%
140%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
130%
120%
110%
100%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Maritime Demand Forecasting
Consortium
•
2005 - 2025 Ref
Growth Factor
Inputs
• GDP
• Port expansion plans
Containers
262%
Ro-Ro
106%
Dry Bulk
41%
General Cargo
24%
• Exports / imports
• OECD industrial performance
Total
118%
Growth Rate Forecasting for GDP
EU-25 [EUROSTAT] Base 100: 2005
GDP (2005 constant price)
Share between Mediterranean Ports and
Others
160%
150%
140%
Scenario
Med. Ports
Other
European
ports
130%
120%
2005 Base year
24%
76%
110%
2025 Reference
27%
73%
100%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Reference Scenario Network
Consortium
• Planned and committed projects at 3 levels
• European
• National
• Regional
• New and upgraded infrastructure
• Rail Freight (127 projects)
• Rail Passenger (140 projects)
• Road (209 projects)
• Inland waterways (11 projects)
• Terminals
Rail Freight Network (2025 Reference Scenario)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Reference Scenario Policies (I)
Consortium
Policy
Scenario
year
Action
Motorways of the sea
Freight intermodality
and logistics
Intermodal loading units
(ILU) and freight
integrators (Marco Polo
Programme)
2020
2020
Modelling
Reduce sea shipping waiting time at ports by 10%.
Reduce cost at freight terminals by 30% viz:
- fixed inventory (Euros/ton)
- handling (Euro/m3)
- storage (Euro/m3)
Reduce waiting time at terminals by 10%
Reduce travel time by 10%
Road pricing
(Eurovignette) for
freight and
passenger
transportation
2020
SCOPE
2005
Vehicle charges per country (€/veh-km)
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Reference Scenario Policies (II)
Consortium
Policy
Scenario
year
Action
Adoption of common
rules in rail sector to
improve interoperability
and enhance quality of
services
Liberalisation of
transport markets
and interoperability
2020
Modelling
Reduce rail freight travel time by 10%
Rail sector liberalisation -full separation between
infrastructure and
operations-
2020
International passengers
services deregulation
2020
Reduce rail passenger travel cost by 5% (€/pax-km)
Ports service liberalisation
2020
Reduce sea shipping costs (€/load) by 10 %
Airport slots
liberalisation
2020
Reduce tariffs for airport connections by 20%
2020
Reduce sea and IWW port waiting times by 10%
Simplify Sea/IWW
custom formalities
SCOPE
Reduce rail freight travel cost by 10% (€/ton-km)
Reduce rail freight travel time by 10%
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Transport Costs
Consortium
• Transport operating cost heavily dependant
on fuel cost
• Operating cost calculation assumptions:
• Road freight transport fuel prices grow at
50% of crude oil rate
• IWW and Maritime Transport fuel prices grow
at 80% of crude oil rate
• Rail electric power price grows at 30% of
average energy rate
• Assumptions for crude oil and energy prices
growth:
• Base year for prices: 2000 (Trans-Tools)
Freight Model Input
Total freight transport cost
growth 2000-2025
Road
18.6%
Rail
1.7%
IWW
21.5%
Sea
16.9%
• Future trends: World Bank (2008) and STEPs
project (EC, 2006)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
FERRMED Standards
Implementation
Consortium
FERRMED Scenarios
1st Run
FERRMED Scenarios
2nd Run
1. Signalling
Included
Included
2. Train Length
Included
Included
3. New terminals and expansion
Included
Included
4. Maximum Axle Load
Included
New lines
5. Width of the tracks UIC 1435 mm
Included
Included
Included (Ref. Scenario)
Included (Ref. Scenario)
7. Reliability and Quality
Included
Included
8. Loading gauge UIC C
As in Reference scenario
For Upgraded and New lines
9. Two Parallel lines in core FERRMED rail
network
Included when justified
Included when justified
10. Increase of Freight train priority
As in Reference scenario
Selected lines
11. Slope limitation to 12 ‰
As in Reference scenario
Included when needed to solve slope
bottlenecks
12. Homogenisation of Power type
As in Reference scenario
Included
Indirect Effect
Indirect effect
FERRMED Standard
6. Liberalisation of the rail freight market
13. Renewal of Rolling stock
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Inland Freight Modal Split
Consortium
Road
Rail
IWW
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1. 2005 Base Year
12. 2025 Southern
3. 2020 Reference 7. 2025 Reference
9. 2025 Medium
11. 2025 Full
Ports enhancement
2nd run
2nd run
FERRMED 2 nd run FERRMED 2nd run
27% to 35%
13. 2025 Obj.
achieved: RAIL
35% (>500Km)
IWW
7,8%
8,5%
8,7%
8,7%
8,5%
8,6%
8,5%
Rail
14,0%
14,2%
14,9%
16,1%
17,1%
17,1%
18,8%
Road
78,2%
77,3%
76,4%
75,2%
74,4%
74,3%
72,7%
(Measured in tonnes-km)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Freight Modal Split
Inland Long Distance (>500
km)
Road
Consortium
Rail
IWW
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
3. 2020
1. 2005 Base
Reference 2nd
Year
Run
5. 2020
Medium
FERRMED
7. 2025
Reference 2nd
run
9. 2025
Medium
FERRMED 2
11. 2025 Full
FERRMED 2
nd run
12. 2025
13. 2025 Obj.
Southern ports achieved: RAIL
enhancement 35% (>500Km)
IWW
19,6%
20,2%
19,8%
20,2%
19,9%
19,6%
19,9%
19,8%
Rail
Road
20,5%
59,9%
20,7%
59,1%
22,6%
57,7%
21,4%
58,4%
23,0%
57,1%
24,3%
56,1%
24,6%
55,6%
35,0%
45,1%
(Measured in tonnes-km)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
Freight Modal Split
Inland Long Distance
(>1000 km)
Road
Consortium
Rail
IWW
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1. 2005 Base
Year
3. 2020
5. 2020
7. 2025
Reference 2nd
Medium
Reference 2nd
Run
FERRMED 2nd
run
9. 2025
Medium
FERRMED 2
11. 2025 Full
FERRMED 2
nd run
12. 2025
13. 2025 Obj.
Southern ports achieved: RAIL
enhancement 35% (>500Km)
IWW
14,4%
15,1%
14,7%
15,5%
15,1%
14,7%
15,1%
14,7%
Rail
24,1%
24,7%
26,4%
25,2%
26,4%
28,2%
28,9%
39,8%
Road
61,5%
60,2%
58,9%
59,3%
58,5%
57,1%
56,0%
45,4%
(Measured in tonnes-km)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS
2025 REFERENCE Scenario
Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
Consortium
CONCLUSIONS
2025 FULL FERRMED Scenario
Rail Freight Traffic (trains/day)
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
Consortium
CONCLUSIONS
FERRMED: Reversing the trend (I)
Consortium
Inland Freight Transport Performance
Billion ( 10 ) tonnes-km
1995 - 2005: EUROSTAT PocketBook
2005 - 2025: FERRMED Forecasting
3000
2500
1500
SCOPE
2005
SCENARIOS
FORECASTING
(12) 2025 Southern ports
enhancement 27% to 35%
(11) 2025 Full FERRMED 2nd
run
(1) 2005 Base Year
(9) 2025 Medium FERRMED
2nd run
(5) 2020 Medium FERRMED
2nd run
(1) 2005 Base Year
2005
Total FULL
Road FULL
Rail FULL
IWW FULL
(3) 2020 Reference 2nd Run
Total Ref.
Road Ref.
Rail Ref.
IWW Ref.
Total MEDIUM
Road MEDIUM
Rail MEDIUM
IWW MEDIUM
(1) 2005 Base Year
Total
Road
Rail
IWW
2000
0
1995
500
258
14.2%
221
15.5%
(7) 2025 Ref. 2nd run
Bottlenecks solution
1000
574
18.8%
524
17.1%
491
16.1%
453
14.9%
(13) 2025 Obj. achieved:
RAIL 35% (>500Km)
9
2000
CONCLUSIONS
Consortium
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Contents
Consortium
• FERRMED Rail Network Definition
• FERRMED Standards
• Bottleneck analysis
• Terminals
• Costs
• Recommendations
• Conclusion
FERRMED Rail Network Definition
Consortium
• Started with FERRMED Association Map
• Line by line analysis
- FERRMED Standards
- Expert judgement
• Optimal freight train routes selected
• Lines not meeting criteria not retained
The FERRMED Rail Network (2005)
Consortium
The FERRMED Rail Network (2025)
Consortium
Bottleneck Analysis
Consortium
• Theoretical capacity of each line calculated
• Capacity compared with train traffic
• Residual capacity determined
• Bottlenecks identified based on :
- residual capacity
- relative capacity (track occupation)
- variation of traffic intensity
Bottleneck Locations
Reference Scenario 2025
Consortium
The 2005 Full FERRMED Rail Network
Consortium
The 2025 Full FERRMED Rail Network
Consortium
Evolution of the network
Consortium
Track gauge
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Share 50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Standard gauge
Broad gauge
2005
Reference
2025
Reference
Scenario
2025
Full
Full
Evolution of the network
Consortium
Infrastructure signalling
120%
100%
80%
without block system
manual block system
automatic block system
Share 60%
40%
ERTMS
20%
0%
2005 Reference 2025 Reference
Scenario
Full Full
2025
Evolution of the network
Consortium
Max Train Length
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Share
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 500m
≥ 500 and
< 750m
≥ 750 and < 1000m
≥ 1000 and ≤ 1500m
2005
Reference
2025
Reference
Scenario
2025
Full
Full
Costs up to 2025 by scenario
Consortium
250
€ 211 bn
Ports & Terminals
€ 178 bn
200
Costs (€ bn)
Automatic coupling
150
€ 131 bn
ERTMS Implementation
Ferrmed Standards
100
Missing links
Bottleneck solutions + Bypasses
50
0
MEDIUM
FULL
2025 Scenarios
FULL +
Costs up to 2025 by scenario
Consortium
Recommendations
Consortium
2025 Full scenario
60
Ports and Terminals
50
Train Length
40
Investment
costs
30
(€ bn)
20
Bottlenecks solving
ERTMS
10
0
Other missing links
Loading gauge
By-passes
Automatic
coupler
Track gauge
Tarragona-Castelló
Electric reinforcement
Electrification
Noise protection
barriers
Axle load
0
1
2
Priority
3
4
Recommendations
Consortium
• To change the width of the tracks in Spain from the
French border.
• To develop the automatic coupler (tractive and
compression efforts with wire data transmission)
• To increase the freight train length :  1000 m
 1500 m
• To solve the detected bottlenecks and to build the
Tarragona – Castelló new line.
• To construct by-passes of major conurbations
Outcomes
Consortium
• High performance parallel lines and almost dedicated lines
according to passenger or freight traffic
• Autocoupler & long trains with radio or wire data transmission
• A rail network available for freight transportation 24 h / 24 and
7 days / 7
• Unified management and monitoring systems (ERTMS)
Consortium
ENVIRONMENTAL
CONSIDERATIONS
Introduction
Consortium
• Transport
• critical to our economy but;
• environmentally impacting
Greenhouse Gas Em issions
(GHG)* by Sector, EU-27 (2006)
Services
, etc.
3.6%
Househo
lds
9.4%
Other ***
15.7%
Transpo
rt
19.3%
Source: DG TREN Pocketbook 2009
Energy
Industrie
s
30.9%
Industry
21.0%
Emissions
Consortium
• High level impact on emission levels analysed within the CBA
• Emission factors derived from TREMOVE transport & emissions
simulation model
• Reduction in pollutants and CO2 assessed for Medium, Full / Full+
Reduction in Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2016 – 2045 (tonnes)
FERRMED Medium
Scenario
FERRMED Full
Scenario
FERRMED Full+
Scenario
805,182
1,004,694
1,004,694
5,794
8,281
8,281
SO2
199,841
242,682
242,682
PM
27,558
35,013
35,013
CO2
128,099,118
145,410,934
145,410,934
NoX
NMVOC
CO2 Savings
Consortium
2020
Full / Full+ FERRMED
Scenario. CO2 reduction
3.173
CO
Savings
at
Strategic
Years
2
(Mt/yr)
as % of Reference Scenario
CO2 emissions
0.408%
2025
2035
2045
4.857
5.361
6.678
0.591%
0.623%
0.743%
• Modest savings achieved in CO2 against trend of rising transport demand
• Significant contribution towards Climate and Energy Package target (10%
reduction)
Consortium
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Components of
Socio-Economic Analysis
Consortium
1. Cost-Benefit Analysis
2. Financial Analysis
3. Multi-Critera Analysis
Socio-economic Analysis:
Part 1
Consortium
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Objectives of the CBA
Consortium
• Identification and quantification of all possible
monetarisable economic, social and environmental
impacts as economic costs or benefits (cost savings)
• Assessing project benefits against infrastructure
investment and operating costs
• CBA methodology for strategic assessment
Origin of benefits
by scenario and type
Consortium
Benefits: MFS / RS
from reduced
accidents
1.5%
from reduced
pollutant
emissions
4.8%
from reduced
GHG emissions
1.1%
Full FS
from reduced
travel / transport
time
20.0%
Medium FS
Social discount rate:
3.5%
Benefits: FFS / RS & WFFS / RS
from reduced
VOC
72.6%
from reduced
accidents
0.5%
from reduced
travel / transport
time
57.4%
from reduced
pollutant
emissions
2.5%
from reduced
GHG emissions
0.4%
from reduced
VOC
39.1%
Origin of benefits
by scenario and mode
Consortium
MFS
FFS / F+FS
350
303
300
237
[bn EUR] 2005 prices
250
200
162
150
100
50
16
23
6
4
6
4
0
-5
-50
-5
-49
-100
rail
passenger
rail freight
road
passenger
road freight
IWW
SSS
CBA results
Consortium
Net Present
Value –
NPV
(million
Euro)
Scenario
Economic
Internal
Rate of
Return –
EIRR (%)
Benefit / Cost
Ratio – BCR
MFS
10,780
4.97
1.155
FFS
93,783
11.09
1.993
F+FS
76,453
8.85
1.684
(*) social discount rate: 3.5%
Net Present Value
(NPV)
Econom ic Internal Rate of Return
(EIRR)
100'000
Benefit/Cost Ratio
(BCR)
12
2.5
90'000
10
80'000
2.0
8
60'000
50'000
[-]
1.5
[%]
[m EUR]
70'000
6
40'000
1.0
4
30'000
20'000
0.5
2
10'000
0
0
MFS
FFS
F+FS
0.0
MFS
FFS
F+FS
MFS
FFS
F+FS
Socio-economic Analysis:
Part 2
Consortium
Financial Analysis
Objectives of
Financial Analysis
Consortium
• Suitable financing sources for the different
investment types and scenarios
• Public versus private funding
• Cash-flow calculation 2013-2025
• Break-down of total funding requirements of
each FERRMED Scenario by main financing
sources 2013-2025
Possible financing sources
Consortium
Source
Railway
infrastructure
upgrad.
ERTMS
(couplg.
+Spanish
UIC g. roll.
st.)
(incl. noise
prot. walls)
National
public
entities
EC
EIB
Private
PPP inv.
Comm.
banks
Σ
1
0
Rolling
stock
New
rail
lines
Ports
& terminals
Electr.
power
upgrading
Bottleneck
invest
ments
By-passes
70
50
70
10
10
70
70
40
15
15
25
25
15
15
10
10
10
10
15
15
30
0
15
15
-
-
-
50
50
-
-
20
-
-
-
20
20
-
-
10
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
100 %
0
%
100 % 100 %
Conclusions
Consortium
 There is in Europe a widespread preparedness to finance rail projects to solve the
increasing environmental and capacity problems of road transport .
 European rail corridors are co-financed by the EC only if the new European rules for
rail transport are met. The investments foreseen for the FERRMED Great Axis Rail
Network meet the funding rules of the EC.
 More than 50 % of the funds for the FERRMED Great Axis Rail Network) must come
from national public sources.
 Up to 30 % of the total funds required can be expected to be co-financed by the EC
and EIB.
 Financial contributions from private stakeholders should be taken into account based
on pilot models of PPP rail projects in Europe.
 New financing instruments have been created on the EU level as a major step to
support PPP projects.
Consortium
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
Rail Freight Traffic
Consortium
Growth (tonnes-km)
between:
Road
Rail
IWW
Sea
Total
All
Total
Inland
2020 Reference/
2020 Medium
-1.8%
10.7%
-0,5%
-0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
2025 Reference/
2025 Medium
-1.4%
8.4%
-1,0%
-0.5%
0.1%
-0.1%
2025 Reference/
2025 Full
-2.0%
15.6%
-1,8%
-0.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Proposed Investments
(Full FERRMED Scenario)
Consortium
• Bottlenecks solutions:
17.1
bn €
• New lines:
16.4
bn €
• City by-passes:
12.8
bn €
• FERRMED standards:
56
bn €
• ERTMS:
14.3
bn €
7.4
bn €
• Automatic couplers:
• Rolling stock:
630 mil €
• Electric reinforcement:
724 mil €
• Terminals (Ports + Inland): 51,7
bn €
• Total:
bn €
177.7
Priorities
Consortium
• Priority 1 measures:
• Standard track gauge / Taragona-Castello new line / Solve bottlenecks
(capacity) / Loading gauge (UIC B1 in existing, UIC C in new) /
Automatic coupling system / Noise barriers
• Priority 2 measures:
• Reinforcement of electricity power / ERTMS / City by-passes / Missing
links / Freight train length increase / Terminals
• Priority 3 measures:
• Electrification of remaining lines / Axle load increase
Cost – Benefit Analysis & Financing
Consortium
• Full FERMED Scenario:
• EIRR: 11.09%
• BCR: 1.99
• The next step should be to establish a
programme of priority projects.
• Individual feasibility studies (project by project)
are anyhow a prerequisite for financing of
specific projects.
• Discussions with International Financing
Institutions should start in short-term.
Legal – Policy Assessment
Consortium
• Lack of network capacity for rail freight: Regulatory and
administrative reforms are needed.
• Parallel lines for freight and passenger rail traffic.
• Priority to city by-passes.
• Set more fair priority rules.
• Develop efficient and unified charging structure.
• Achieve full liberalization.
• Achieve free competition.
• Establish freight “preference” corridors.
• Management at corridor level should be examined.
Consortium
FERRMED PROPOSALS
MAIN GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
Consortium
The application of FERRMED Standards is a key issue in
order to reverse the decreasing share of Railway in
land transportation.
The proposed investment and actions in the FERRMED
Great Axis Rail Freight Core Network and main
feeders, are feasible and sustainable from economic,
financial, and environmental perspective.
As a consequence, FERRMED Association proposes the
adoption of FERRMED Great Axis Core Network and
main feeders as a part of the EU high priority Rail
Freight Network, recommending the approval as
Priority Projects of all actions to be developed in the
Core Network
CORE NETWORK
Consortium
MAIN GENERAL ACTIONS (I)
Consortium
 Gradual Implementation of FERRMED Standards
 To built by-passes in big cities
 To reinforce border crossings in the Alps and in the
Pyrenees (new crossing line in the Alps and change track
width in conventional existing lines in the Pyrenees)
 To upgrade Spanish main corridors to UIC width
(1435mm), starting by the Mediterranean one
 To consolidate an intermodal and polyvalent
public/private network of terminals with appropriate rail
links
MAIN GENERAL ACTIONS (II)
Consortium
To enhance the capacity of all main
European Ports improving the rail links with
their hinterlands
Policy and management harmonisation
Liberalization and free competition
To build new lines in the FERRMED Core
Network, in the corridors where double line
or interconnections links do not exist (Like
Tarragona-Castelló and Almería-MotrilMálaga-Algeciras).
FERRMED PROPOSALS
Consortium
These main general Conclusions and
Actions derived from the Global Study,
allows FERRMED Association to make
a set of 100 proposals in order to get
a suitable Rail freight Network in the
“Red Banana” area.
ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (V)
Consortium
FRANCE and SOUTH-EAST UNITED KINGDOM
Core Network lines: London – Calais/Dunkerque – Lille – Metz – Dijon; Le Havre –
Rouen – Amiens – Reims – Dijon; Le Havre – Rouen – Paris – Dijon;
Luxembourg/Apach – Metz – Nancy – Dijon – Lyon – Valence – Avignon /Marseille –
Nimes – Montpellier – Perpignan – Girona/Barcelona; Lyon – Torino/Milano
 To implement FERRMED
Standards and to enlarge or to
build high capacity Terminals
 By passes in Lille, Paris (Rocade
Nord) and Lyon
 New mixed lines NimesMontpellier-Perpignan and
Lyon-Torino
 To imporve the access to Le
Havre and Marseille ports
 To refublish the line MarseilleMontgenèvre (long term)
ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (VII)
Consortium
SPAIN AND NORTH OF AFRICA
Core Network lines: Perpignan-Girona-Barcelona-Castelló-València-AlacantMurcia/Cartagena-Lorca-Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras; Lorca-Granada-AntequeraBobadilla-Algeciras
 To change the widht of the
tracks in all Mediterranean
Corridor in the existing
conventional line
 New HSL Tarragona-Castelló,
València -Alacant-MurciaAlmeria (keeping the existing
line Murcia-LorcaAlmendricos-Aguilas as a
separate line from the new
one).
 Double gauge in surroundings
of huge cities
ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (VIII)
Consortium
SPAIN AND NORTH OF AFRICA
Core Network lines: Perpignan-Girona-Barcelona-Castelló-València-AlacantMurcia/Cartagena-Lorca-Almería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras; Lorca-Granada-AntequeraBobadilla-Algeciras








Great by-pass Girona Nord-Tarragona Sud
Great by-pass Castelló-Xativa
By-passes in Alacant, Murcia, Málaga, etc.
New mixed line Almería- Motril-MálagaAlgeciras (HSL+freight)
To electrify and to put double track in the
line Alacant-Murcia/Cartagena-LorcaAguilas
To refurbish and to change the widht of the
tracks in the line Sevilla/AlgecirasBobadilla/Antequera-Granada-Almería
To introduce FERRMED Standards and to
enlarge/to built high capacity Terminals
Study more suitable Gibraltar crossing
ACTIONS IN CORE NETWORK (IX)
Consortium
Lines to be declared as EU Priority Projects
FERRMED PROPOSAL
Country
Lines to be declared
Priority Projects
as
EU
Germany
 Line Bremen-Münster-Duisburg
(to be included as an extension of
corridor number 20).
 Line Koblenz-Luxembourg/Apach
France
 Line Calais/Dunkerque-Lille-MetzDijon
 Line Le Havre-Amiens-ReimsDijon
Spain
(Mediterranean
corridor)
 Line Tarragona-Castelló-ValènciaAlacant-Murcia/CartagenaAlmería-Motril-Málaga-Algeciras
 Line Lorca-Granada-Antequera
FERRMED ASBL
Consortium
Muchas
gracias por su
atención