Environmental Health Impacts of Global Climate Change

Crispin Pierce, Ph.D.

[email protected]

Environmental Public Health Program

Outline

• Global Human Environmental Threats • Experiment Challenge • Direct Human Effects – Heat deaths – Adverse weather events – Costs of extreme weather events • Relationship Between Climate Change and Other Environmental Issues

• Associated Climate Changes and Surprises • Flooding of Low-Lying Areas • Spread of Waterborne Diseases • Climate Change and Food Production • Effects on Plant and Animal Communities – Phenology – Greening of the North – Coral Bleaching – Species Extinction • Benefits of Stabilizing CO 2 Concentrations

Global Human Environmental Threats

1. Overpopulation 2. Global Climate Change 3. Loss of Biodiversity

Experimental Challenge

• A reporter for the Eau Claire Leader-Telegram contacts you for information on an article concerning global warming. She asks you the question, “If air and sea temperatures rise, will the melting of icebergs lead to sea level increases?” What is your response.

• Use the materials in front of you (ice cubes, a graduated cylinder, and a water faucet), how would you test your answer?

Direct Human Effects

• Hotter, Drier Summers and Warmer, Wetter Winters • Increased Adverse Weather Events • Property and Crop Losses

Quick Quiz

• About how many people in Europe died during the heat wave of 2003?

1. 350 2. 3,500 3. 35,000 • Heat is the primary cause of weather related deaths.

Adverse Weather Events

• • Increased Sea Surface Temperatures and Greater Hurricane Intensity (

Science

16 September 2005:Vol. 309. no. 5742, pp. 1844 - 1846) Net Hurricane Power Dissipation Highly Correlated with Tropical Sea Surface Temperature (

Nature

advance online publication; published online 31 July 2005 | doi: 10.1038/nature03906)

Costs of Extreme Weather Events

Relationship Between Climate Change and Other Environmental Issues

• The complex effects of warming of our atmosphere, water, and soil are very difficult to measure and predict.

• Accumulation of evidence from many fields, such as chemistry, biology, geology, and environmental health is essential.

• The accumulated evidence provides a clearer and clearer picture of what’s going on.

Associated Climate Changes

• Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr; in 100 years a rise in sea level between 3.5 and 34.6 in. (9-88 cm) is expected • Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere • Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%

• Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions • Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere • Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents • Snow cover decreased by 10% (reduced solar reflection) Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) ( http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

Climate Surprises

• Slowing of the ocean thermohaline circulation

• Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Flooding of Low-Lying Coastal Areas

Source: U.S. National Assessment, 2000.

Kennedy Space Center

Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level Miami

Source: Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic.

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

( www.acia.uaf.edu

) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Who Will be First Affected?

• AOSIS is a coalition of small island and low-lying coastal countries, including Africa, Caribbean, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, Pacific, South China Sea • These countries share risk factors for warming-induced disasters: – Small physical size – Surrounded by large expanses of ocean – Relative isolation – Limited natural resources – Growing populations – Exposure to damaging natural disasters – Low economic diversification – Limited funds, human resources, skills

• Rising sea levels will cause – Displacement of coastal communities – Disturbance of agricultural activity – Coastal erosion, beach loss, decline in tourism – Intrusion of sea water into freshwater aquifers

• Other risks faced by AOSIS – More frequent droughts and floods – Water supply contamination • The experience of AOSIS countries is a microcosm of the global picture

Spread of Waterborne Diseases

• Malaria • Dengue Fever • Cholera • Typhoid fever • Hantavirus • Diptheria • Lyme Disease • Evidence: the Caribbean region has experienced a marked increase in the incidence of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in the past decade (Caribbean Epidemiology Centre - CAREC).

Climate Change and Food

• The growth of crops depends on many factors, including temperature, precipitation, soil fertility, and surrounding land uses.

• Extreme weather events (drought, hurricanes, floods, etc.) are very damaging to crops. The effects of more gradual affects (e.g., average temperature increase) are difficult to predict.

• Developing countries will be much harder hit than developed countries, due to limited agricultural flexibility.

Effects on Plant and Animal Communities

• The effects are difficult to measure, but potentially dramatic. • Many species inhabit precisely bounded ecological niches, and so small changes in climate can cause disruptions in habitat or food availability. • In the past, mobile animals could respond to these pressures by moving from one place to another. Land development, however, has constrained and fragmented ranges and travel routes, making migration much more difficult. • Loss of key predator or prey species affects the life cycles of other organisms in the food chain.

Phenology (Timing of Natural Events)

• Evidence of earlier leafing and flowering.

http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/biosphere/data1.html

Greening of the North

• More vegetative growth in the last 20 years.

Ranga B. Myneni, Department of Geography, Boston University • Many scientists predict greater desertification.

Coral Bleaching

• Increased sea temperatures • Increased CO2 concentrations:

CO

2 

CaCO

3 

H

2 0  2

HCO

3  

Ca

2  http://www.awi-bremerhaven.de/Carbon/calcif.html

Species Extinction

• Extinction of the golden toad: – Over the past 30 years, the dry season in the Costa Rica’s cloud forest has become warmer and drier.

– 20 out of 50 species of frogs and toads have disappeared from a 30 square-kilometer study area – Toucans and other bird species have shifted their range to higher altitudes. – Frog extinction in the Central and South American tropics

Biological Shifts

• Shifts in the ranges of 35 species of non migratory butterflies.

• Decline in body weight of polar bears, resulting from early melting of sea ice and lowered food availability.

• Changes in the abundance of winter songbirds in four Great Plains states • Shifts in California’s tidepools species • Reduction of phytoplankton growth in the Ross Sea that could disrupt the Antarctic food chain

Stabilizing CO

2

Atmospheric Levels

• Efficient Transportation • Energy Conservation • Sustainable Energy Sources • Sustainable Land Use • Population Stabilization

References

• • • Exploratorium.edu

Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State University Joan L. Aron, Vulnerability Associated with Climate Variability and Climate Change in Central America and the Caribbean • • Union of Concerned Scientists Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Extra Slides

• Scientists predict that continued global warming on the order of 2.5° 10.4

°F over the next 100 years (as projected in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report) is likely to result in: • severe stress on many forests, wetlands, alpine regions, and other natural ecosystems • greater threats to human health as mosquitoes and other disease carrying insects and rodents spread diseases over larger geographical regions • disruption of agriculture in some parts of the world due to increased temperature, water stress, and sea-level rise in low-lying areas such as Bangladesh or the Mississippi River delta.