Transcript Anchorage CO Maintenance Plan Proposed Revision to the State of Alaska Air Quality Control Plan April 2008 Municipality of Anchorage Department of Health and Human Services.

Anchorage CO Maintenance Plan
Proposed Revision to the
State of Alaska Air Quality Control
Plan
April 2008
Municipality of Anchorage
Department of Health and Human Services
History
• EPA declared Anchorage a CO nonattainment
area in 1978.
• Air quality attainment plans were completed in
1982, 1992, and 2002.
• Last violation of the NAAQS occurred in 1996.
• EPA approved maintenance plan and
designated Anchorage as an attainment area in
2004.
• In November 2007, Anchorage Assembly voted
to discontinue I/M no later than December 2009.
Draft CO
Plan (Apr 08)
CO Plan Approval Process
AMATS review
AQ/TAC/Policy
Anchorage
Assembly review
AMATS-approved
Plan
(May08)
AMATS-approved
Plan
with Assembly and
public comments
(July 08)
ADEC considers comments,
revises plan (if needed), legal
review, and adoption
ADEC Public
comment process
ADEC-revised
SIP (Nov 08)
EPA - approved SIP
(Dec 2009 to June 2010)
EPA review and approval
12 to 18 months
What does the
monitoring data tell
us?
CO monitoring has
been conducted at 8
“permanent” locations
and more than 25
temporary locations in
the Anchorage bowl.
CO concentrations have fallen dramatically over the
past 25 years.
CO Trend at Garden Monitoring Station
18.0
16.0
14.0
CO (ppm)
12.0
NAAQS
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
The highest CO concentrations are measured in
residential areas.
Looking north from Turnagain Station (32nd and Turnagain Boulevard)
Cold starts and warm-up idling are significant sources
of CO in these neighborhoods.
CO Concentration by Time-of-Day at Turnagain and Garden Stations
10.0
mid-morning peak corresponds
with departure of commuters from
neighborhoods
9.0
CO Concentration (ppm)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Turnagain
Garden
1.0
0.0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
Hour of Day
15
17
19
21
23
What impact does
discontinuing I/M have
on prospects for
continued compliance
with the federal CO
standard?
Because the Turnagain station exhibits the
greatest potential for exceeding the NAAQS, its
data were analyzed to determine the probability of
complying with the federal air quality standard
without I/M.
Statistical analysis
suggests that if CO
emissions in the
Turnagain area
remain at 2007
levels, there is a
98% chance of
meeting the federal
CO standard.
98th Percentile Prediction Interval at
Turnagain Station
12.0
11.0
98th percentile
CO Concentration (ppm)
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.9
7.7
7.6
6.7
7.0
6.1
5.9
5.5
6.0
5.3
4.6
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
The future probability of
compliance can be estimated by
forecasting CO emissions in the
Turnagain area.
The effect of terminating I/M on
future CO emissions can be
estimated using the EPA MOBILE6
model.
CO emissions in the
9 km2 area surrounding
the Turnagain station
were projected through
2023.
CO emissions in Turnagain Area
(Base Year 2007)
space heating
5%
other
12%
warm-up idle
19%
fireplaces &
woodstoves
10%
on-road Travel
54%
Total CO emissions = 5.99 tons per day
Projected CO Emissions Turnagain Area (2007-2023)
CO emissions are
projected to decline
between 2007 and
2023.
6.0
CO emissions (tons per day)
Because emissions
decline the probability
of complying with the
CO standard improves
slightly over time.
7.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
miscellaneous
natural gas heating
2.0
fireplaces & wood stoves
motor vehicles
1.0
0.0
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Year
TOTAL
CO EMISSIONS (tpd)
Probability
of Compliance
2007
5.99
98.1%
2008
5.72
98.8%
2009
5.45
99.2%
2010
5.66
99.0%
2011
5.86
98.4%
2012
5.74
98.8%
2013
5.62
99.1%
2014
5.54
99.1%
2015
5.45
99.2%
2016
5.38
99.2%
2017
5.30
99.3%
2018
5.21
99.4%
2019
5.11
99.4%
2020
5.05
99.5%
2021
4.98
99.5%
2022
4.93
99.6%
2023
4.89
99.6%
Conclusion
Even if I/M is discontinued, the
probability of complying with the CO
standard is 98% or higher each year
between 2007 and 2023.
This is well above the 90% probability
targeted by the EPA for maintenance
demonstrations.
What should Anchorage
do to help minimize CO
emissions?
Primary measures
• Air Quality Public Awareness
–
–
–
–
Promote block heater use
Promote alternatives to SOV (walk, bike, bus, telecommute)
Encourage trip chaining
Inform public on benefits of vehicle maintenance (voluntary I/M?)
• Rideshare / Vanpool
• Transit Promotion
Contingency measures
Measure or measures adopted will depend on
nature of CO violation
• Curtail or limit fireplace and wood stove use when high
CO is predicted
• Increase public awareness and education, transit,
rideshare and van pool promotion
• Offer reduced transit fares for employees of companies
that contribute to subsidy
• Reinstate block heater installation subsidy
• Reinstate ethanol-blended gasoline
• Reinstate I/M
Motor vehicle emissions
budget for use in
conformity analyses
Motor vehicle
emissions budget is
the allowable
amount of CO that
can be emitted by
motor vehicles in the
budget area.
Conformity
regulations require
that CO emissions
from future
transportation plans
and programs stay
below the motor
vehicle emission
budget.
Because total CO emissions must remain below 121.5 tpd, the motor
vehicle budget shrinks from 87.8 tpd in 2007 to 79.7 tpd in 2023 as
other sources grow.
160
140
allowable CO emissions (tpd)
120
100
80
60
40
87.8
87.4
86.9
86.5
86.0
85.6
85.1
84.7
84.2
83.8
83.3
82.7
82.1
81.5
80.9
80.3
79.7
20
0
2007
2009
2011
motor vehicle budget
2013
aircraft
2015
2017
wood heat
other
2019
2021
space heat
2023
Preliminary projections suggest that future transportation plans and
programs can meet the shrinking motor vehicle budget and thus meet
conformity requirements.
100.0
Motor Vehicle Emission Budget
CO Emissions (tons per day)
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Projected Actual Motor Vehicle Emissions
2023