Transcript CHANGE AND CHANGE AGENTS Y S RAJAN Principal Adviser, CII [[email protected]] To be presented at World Academy of Art and Science: General Assembly 2008 17-20 October.

CHANGE AND CHANGE AGENTS
Y S RAJAN
Principal Adviser, CII
[[email protected]]
To be presented at
World Academy of Art and Science: General Assembly 2008
17-20 October 2008, Hyderabad
[views personal]
KNOWLEDGE……. GALLOPING
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KNOWLEDGE generation since past many decades :
unusual speed much more faster applications of
knowledge to produce goods and services for mass
consumption.
•
Current : 1 Billion Billion bytes 1018 Bytes
• and 500 Million Billion A-4 size pages 5 X 10
pages
•
17
Phenomenal capacity for number crunching, storing,
ultrafast transfer, sophisticated mathematical tools for
past two decades.
CHANGE
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CHANGE
•
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
• Anything to anythings ‘CHANGE’ is
monitored …. Broadcast …. Talked
about even without CAUSAL
connection
• CHANGE …. Advocated in every sphere
of activity.
EVOLUTION OF APPROACH TO CONCEPT
OF CHANGE IN HUMAN SOCIETIES
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Early static view of ‘tribal’ societies – SUN, MOON
etc.
(But they too changed a lot around them !)
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More sophisticated religions, philosophies etc Will
of the Superior (Highest) Being(s) – but allowed free
will for Humans …. (the change agent !).
•
Rennaissance in Europe, Modern Science ……
Chain of changes from Big Bang ….. to life ….
Tectonic plates of Earth …. Understanding Reasons
for change.
(also using the natural law to effect more changes).
Early evolution : emergence of
CHANGE AGENT
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Unicellular ….. to hominids ….. not a single series of
breakthroughs …. Hominids were great ‘change agents’
too.
Human innovative capabilities : Giving power much
more their weight, hand, limbs, teeth etc. Tools, Arrows,
Wheels.. …
Domestication of plants & animals some 10,000 years
ago : In a few centuries effected changes of millions of
years.
“Fantastic Biological Experiment” Max Delbruck.
Yes now changes in decades in life science – GM. Also
other S&T tools : 1945 Nuclear Bomb, Space Flight…..
EMERGENCE OF CHANGE AGENT -----•
A product of slow cumulative CHANGES through
evolution has become a CHANGE AGENT unparalleled
collectively and individually.
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What would take Nature millions of year is now effected
by the “CHANGE agent” in a few decades for life and
non-life forms. Also in some cases boundaries of life
and non-life are blurred.
•
What is implication of this on Earth, living being, non-life
and also for Humans ?
A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION
• EVOLUTION ACCEPTED ….. MANY
SUPERSPECIALIST BRANCHES STUDYING DETAILS
….. SIMULATION IN LIFE FORMS …. WE WON’T
DEAL WITH THEM.
• We briefly attempt here to look different applications
of evolutionary approach to human life.
• Many books …… several researches ….. primarily
quote from four books plus knowledge derived from
other sources.
A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION
(contd…)
• Mind from Matter ? Max Delbruck – evolutionary
epistemology. Various processes of evolutionary growth
of human cognition…. There are many new possibilities
ahead
• As told by Delbruck “The Stone Age people in England
constructed Stonehenge 4000 to 5000 years ago….That
probably thought very highly of themselves. Little did
they know how much they didn’t know” Gunther Stent
who is one of the editors of the book adds
“And – what goes for them goes for us too.”
A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION
(contd…)
•
Vilayunur Ramachandran Emerging Mind. fMRI, PET
etc proposed : Evolutionary – neuro-psychiatry (The
book reemphasizes the evolutionary changes which
have given rise to the modern human mind).
•
Mirror Neuron system – Empathy, Imitation, Mimicking
helped 50,000 – 75,000 years a “Great Leap Forward”
from genetic to Lamarckian evolution.
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Freewill’ what is it ? Excellent discussion.
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Implications : Humans may acquire capability to
enhance performance human brain – not just genetic
changes – may be “neuron engineering” My speculation.
A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION
(contd…)
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Evolution of Human Consciousness by John Hurrell Crook :
Whole range of subjects from the biological function of mind
to consciousness to dialectics of change.
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Tribal groups (essential to survival) …. Biosocial system
creating superstructural organization …… Generalisation of
human rights (in small groups) to wider target populations :
hence growing slowly.
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As the result of speed of changes in and around human
society YOUNG & OLD virtually inhabit different worlds of
thought ……(Also true for youths of underdeveloped
societies and youth in developed world – my comment !).
A SKETCH OF HUMAN EVOLUTION
(contd…)
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Lou Marinoff “Middle Way”……
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Emphasizes the role of “tribalism” even now. It was
crucial for survival and progress. Whenever nature and
nurture complemented each other well, human tribe
flourished – when it did not, they vanished.
Nature bequeaths to human being, a terrible paradox of
nativity: Small Social and Universal …… How to
diminish or nullify the repulsive forces between one
group and another; xerophobic hatreds of rascism,
ruthless prejudices of ethnocentrism …. Demonising
myths of tribalism ……
Marinoff recommend ABC……..
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LIVING WITH EVOLUTION…
• LET US NOT FORGET THAT EACH
HUMAN BEING ENACTS IN A
COMPRESSED TIMESCALE. THE
WHOLE PROCESS OF EVOLUTION :
• UNICELL .. EARLYLIFE FORMS IN
WOMB .. CRAWLING .. QUADRIPED ..
BIPED .. REWIRING OF BRAIN……
WHERE ANGELS FEAR TO TREAD !
• Complexity……….. Complexity……… How to cut loose?
My speculations. Deriving some general features of
evolution and a few statements aimed at common good.
1) Much superior level of evolutions of H.S.S. is still
conditioned by the evolutionary continuity……
biology to consciousness to group behaviour to
sociobiology.
2) On the other hand, there is a continuing experiment
with changes (by Nature) works through human
much faster……. H.S.S. changes everything fast.
3) Above all, human capability with unique brain and
consciousness.
WHERE ANGELS FEAR TO TREAD
(contd…)
4) H.S.S. has created beautiful images in their emotional
and intellectual domains : literature, poetry, arts,
science, maths, religions, philosophy, law etc.
Evolutionary continuity if not compulsion. They have
raised human organizations to a different level….
(Detailed discussion in text of speech) – not only to
preserve biological diversity but human cultural
diversity ….. death of tribal shamans.
• Murray Gell Man : Other traditional cultural
knowledge all over ……
• Concept of Truth in Art : (Nirmal Verma)
In spite of all the great leap forwards :
BHASMAASURA
WHERE ANGELS FEAR TO TREAD
(contd…)
• Tension between enlightenment based universal outlook
and cultural diversity.
………..but today it may be related to differences in
nationality, language, or religion or to other differences,
sometimes so small that an outsider can scarcely detect
them, but still sufficient to give rise to deadly rivalry and
hatred under suitable conditions.
WHERE ANGELS FEAR TO TREAD
(contd…)
(5) Or is it that the ‘change agent’ who is a product of
billions and millions of years of evolutionary change,
though at a speedier pace during the past several
thousands of years, has no control over the ‘change
making process’? At this point one has to assert one’s
belief and hope that Nature, though ruthless in her
destruction very often, never has intended to make her
great ‘change agent’ powerless against ‘self destruction’.
(May be it is a blind belief or a naïve hope !).
It is with this hope and belief, the issues are addressed in
the rest of the paper.
HUMAN POPULATION
• Sensitive, emotional - often ducked.
• Hominids lived, multiplied, died….. our cousin H.S.N.
exterminated about 40,000 years ago and H.S.S. now
flourishes.
• Beginning 20th century about 2 Billion …. Can go to 8
Billion 2020 ….. 10 Billion 2050.
0 ACE to 999 ACE : Population Six Fold. Percapita very
little change
1000 ACE to 1999 ACE : Popl. 2 fold. Prcap. 13 fold
GDP 300 fold
1820 ACE Bulk of growth of Pop. & wealth.
HUMAN POPULATION
(contd….)
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The current increase in population is due to : (a) increasing
reduction of infant mortality ratio, (b) increased life
expectancy and (c) normal reproduction though now at much
reduced rates in many parts of the world.
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All these especially the first two are considered as high
points of human values as given in Human Development
Indices. The reproduction though limited is but natural. Total
stoppage will mean destruction of the species in the long run
: an evolutionary “No! No!”.
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But continuing increase of human population means
increasing consumption from nature even if per capita
consumptions are brought down. To bring down consumption
of energy, it cannot be through energy efficiency measures
alone; laws of thermodynamics point out limits to energy
efficiency.
HUMAN POPULATION
(contd…..)
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Problems in local demographic changes, fall of youthful population
in developed countries and increasing number of youth in
developing countries, is another problem of skew in today's “tribal”
balances. Also most of the youth in the developing world are not
educated and skilled enough to meet the demands of the modern
globalising world. These ill-equipped youth can easily be inspired by
“identity politics” of several forms, which are but extensions of
“atavistic tribalisms” of the past giving a hope for self-preservation.
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The solutions will perhaps lie in the evolved parts of human
consciousness to think of new models of human transactions
between humans themselves and also transactions with nature, and
transmitting them to other human beings through oral, visual, textual
and other practical forms. The human capability to emphathize and
therefore to imitiate and to mimmick, has to be utilised in major
forms.
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Can media help? Can technology help?
GLOBALISATION & LOCAL IMPACTS
• Globalisation : Compulsion
S&T…. Changes
of
economics,
• But Economic – divide; knowledge – divide;
Skill - divide; trade – divide…. etc. Partly
“tribalism” in action – also constraints of social
structures evolved as H.S.S. progressed in
different places…. Pockets of inventive
capability in a small period (decades).
• Optimistic view : Technology as a Binding
forced in an interdependent world.
Superrich
100 M
300-350 M Rich
& Middle
650 - 700 M
ordinary people
(poor)
INDIAN PYRAMID
BASED ON
PERSONAL/FAMILY INCOME
INDIA NOW & 2020
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Almost every statement about India will be partly true.
Exercise in listing dialectical opposites or trying to
resolve paradox !
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Vision 2020 exercise (1994 – 1995) : Many better things
now – also concerns : in lower end agriculture & small
industries – Yes India by 2020 would be much better but
with some caveats.
(i) Major concern : skill levels of most of economically
active population will be fragile given the push of global
changes. So continuing anxiety of economic insecurity
for a large population.
INDIA NOW & 2020
(CONTD….)
ii. Another concern : to sustain rapid growth would depend on
the ability of Indian firms and S&T institutions to create new
knowledge capital at the global levels; to own Intellectual
Property Rights (IPR’s). It is very low currently. The current
author with three other co-authors has elaborated on it in a
recent paper to be presented at
Forum for Global
Knowledge Sharing.
iii. The third major concern is about the governance; due to
identity politics and large scale corruption of public
institutions and individuals who run them, India has become
a very soft state prone to terrorist attacks. The “liberal” elites
have paralysed the Govt. institutions thus preventing them
from taking actions to pre-empt or eliminate such attacks on
people. This has long term implications as the domestic and
foreign investors may choose other safer destinations like
China etc.
WHY INDIA ? IN THIS TALK ?
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16% of world population.
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Though slow to change, 100 TV channels in different
Indian languages (foreign & Indian) bombard people –
messages of changes.
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Higher concepts of human evolution (equality, rights
etc) coming to play. Also prone to different “tribalisms”.
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Way India solves – relevant experience for many others
in the globle.
WORLD 2020
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When all these developments (and changes) take place
in India and in other parts of developing world, the
totality of ‘changes’ to humanity and the collective
achievement of human being as a ‘change agent’ will be
unprecedented in human history.
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However biggest question is : will the ‘tribalisms”
dominate? Or will the higher human concepts of equality
and human rights prevail ?
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There are no simple answers. None of the collective
human codified knowledge (in science, economics etc)
will help fully. Solutions will have to come from much
deeper instincts of this highly evolved (and evolving)
change agent, the Human – individually and collectively.
HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES
i. Large scale pollution of L, A, S…..; oceans
ii. Excessive CO2 and other gases….. & more
iii. Extinction of many species & continuing….
iv. New kinds of mutants of bacteria & viruses – what
impact on animals & birds ?
v. Human capability with Nuclear weapons, Biological etc.
Non – state actors
vi. Continuing growth of knowledge of H.S.S. about his/her
own genes/genetics….and Human brain THE CORE
CHANGE AGENT…. Impacts of new “mutants” ethics,
morals ?
HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES
(contd…)
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One extreme view can be – So what ? If there is a large
scale destruction of humans, animals, plants etc through
global warming, climate change, pollution, genetic changes,
neurological experiments etc., at worst the current human
species may perish. Evolutionary changes in Earth can any
way continue with different routes. People with such views
can also pose a question as to what we can do if there is a
sudden continental drift in Earth or if a major asteroid hits
the earth
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Some parts of the questions relevant : human ignorance of
Earth; very little to do with Earthquake, cyclone etc. ….
Earth not in safe place in planetary system
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Humility vis-à-vis Earth or Nature.
HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES
contd….)
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Approach to issues like climate change, natural disasters etc
can pose some collective challenges to channelise H.S.S.
beyond “tribalisms”.
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But first of all, it is necessary therefore to ensure that issue of
minimum essential prosperity for all human beings; minimum
health care for all; minimum assured levels of personal safety
and security. It can be a big human cause to work for.
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Approach to issues like climate change, natural and major
human – made calamities, etc. should take on a global
human view. The human kind ought to create new social
systems (probably with evolutionary changes derived from
the past systems), which can help them transcend their “tribal
barriers” at least for some minimum number of items
(commonly agreed upon).
TASK FOR THE ‘CHANGE AGENT’
The ‘change agents’ may have to be
trained to look at collective good
rather than individual and group
changes which dominated in the
past. Will our biology permit it?
What do neurosciences have to
unravel for us? No ‘free will’?
A HOPEFUL END