Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To, Climate Change Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany 18 June 2004 Roger.
Download ReportTranscript Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To, Climate Change Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany 18 June 2004 Roger.
Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To, Climate Change Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany 18 June 2004 Roger N. Jones Atmospheric Research Risk Can be broadly defined as the likelihood of an adverse event or outcome How does this relate to Article 2 of the UNFCCC? Atmospheric Research Article 2 UNFCCC Consequence Aims to prevent dangerous Hazard anthropogenic climate change by stabilising greenhouse gas emissions, thus allowing Management options Through adaptation and mitigation Ecosystems to adapt naturally Management Food security to be maintained criteria Sustainable development to proceed Atmospheric Research Scales of “dangerous” climate change Global thresholds of criticality – Grounded ice sheet melts, – N. Hemisphere flips to cold conditions, – Amazon wilts and burns due to heat and drought Global in scale but very unlikely to occur ( with T) Local thresholds of criticality Any activity where: – the harm caused exceeds given levels of tolerance – impacts become non-viable with no reasonable substitute Local in scale, number and severity increasing with T, benefits fewer with T Atmospheric Research Linking climate to adaptation over time Climate system Impacted activity Socioeconomic system Current climate Current adaptations Future climate Future adaptations Atmospheric Research Measuring the ability to cope Loss Profit Loss Loss Coping Range Vulnerable Critical Threshold Probability Vulnerable Profit Coping Range Critical Threshold Atmospheric Research Coping under climate change Stationary Climate & Coping Range Changing Climate Vulnerable Coping Range Vulnerable Stationary Climate & Coping Range Changing Climate Vulnerable Adaptation Coping Range Planning Horizon Vulnerable Atmospheric Research Adapting through the coping range Mitigative capacity ← Assess risk No adaptation Autonomous adaptation Coping range Manage risk Mitigation Adaptation → Adaptive capacity Critical risk Danger Atmospheric Research Mitigative capacity ← Assess risk No adaptation Autonomous adaptation Coping range Manage risk Mitigation Adaptation → Adaptive capacity Critical risk Danger Autonomous adaptation Adapting (generic) Adapting (specific) Improve technology access Institutional reform Improved equity Access to information Build social capital Access to wealth creation Mainstreaming adaptation Natural resource management New technology Disaster planning Retrofit existing structures Build resilience/resistance Adapting (transformative) Replace activity Abandon activity Transform activity Atmospheric Research Different activities have different adaptive capacities Coral Reefs Developed Country Agriculture Developing Country Agriculture Protected Coastal Infrastructure Atmospheric Research Adaptation and mitigation • Adaptation increases the coping range through biological and social means • Mitigation reduces the magnitude and frequency of greenhouse-related climate hazards Therefore, they are complementary, not interchangeable. They also reduce different areas of climate uncertainty Atmospheric Research Some major methods 1. Natural hazards method Risk = Hazard ×Vulnerability (what are the likely damages?) 2. Vulnerability-based method Risk = Probability × Consequence (what is the likelihood of exceeding a given state of vulnerability?) 3. Policy assessment Does a given policy increase or decrease risk under climate change? Atmospheric Research Selecting a method Natural Hazard • Probabilities of hazard constrained • Main drivers known • Chain of consequences understood • P(Hazard) × Consequences Exploratory Vulnerability • Probabilities not constrained • Many drivers • Multiple pathways and feedbacks • P(Vulnerability) e.g. critical threshold exceedance Normative Atmospheric Research Temperature Increase (°C) Likelihood of threshold exceedance 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 3 2.5°C Threshold 2 1 1°C Threshold 0 1990 0 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Year 5 Probability density 100 Sea Level Rise (cm) 0 0 0 100 Probability exceedance 100 100 80 75cm Threshold 80 80 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 25cm Threshold 20 0 1990 0 2010 2030 2050 Year 2070 2090 0 0 6 Probability density 0 100 Atmospheric Research Probability exceedance Low probability, extreme outcomes Least likely Moderately likely Considerable damage to most systems Increased damage to many systems, fewer benefits Highly likely Almost certain Damage to the most sensitive, many benefits Happening now Vulnerable to current climate Probability Consequence Core benefits of adaptation and mitigation Probability – the likelihood of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming Consequence – the effect of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming Risk = Probability × Consequence Activities most at risk Those where • critical thresholds are exceeded at low levels of global warming, • adaptive capacity is low and/or adaptation is prohibitively expensive, difficult or unknown and • the consequences of exceeding those thresholds are judged to be serious Atmospheric Research Resources • UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework www.undp.org/cc/apf.htm • UKCIP Willow and Connell (2003) www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert Atmospheric Research