Transcript Winter component of the T-PARC Yucheng Song1, Zoltan Toth2, Yoshio Asuma3, Rolf Langland4, Carolyn Reynolds4, Edmund Chang5, Jack Parrish6, Istvan Szunyogh7, Chris Doyle8,

Winter component of the T-PARC
Yucheng Song1, Zoltan Toth2, Yoshio Asuma3, Rolf Langland4,
Carolyn Reynolds4, Edmund Chang5, Jack Parrish6, Istvan
Szunyogh7, Chris Doyle8, Trevor Smith8, Mel Shapiro9,
Alexander Kats10, Mark Moran11, Christina Prates11, Cihan
Sahin11, David Richardson11, Tim Hewson11
(1) Plurality at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, USA
(2) NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, USA
(3) University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan
(4) NRL, Monterey, CA, USA
(5) SUNY, Stonybrook, NY, USA
(6) NOAA/AOC, MacDill AFB, FL, USA
(7) Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA
(8) Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada
(9) UCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
(10) Roshydromet/CAO, Moscow, Russia
(11) ECMWF, Shinfield Park, UNITED KINGDOM
Third THORPEX International Science
Symposium (TISS) 2009.09.14-18
10:10-10:30
Outline
•
•
•
•
Motivations
Operations
Preliminary evaluations
Summary
CASE DEPENDENT, ETKF-BASED ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE ON
THE WINTER STORM
March 04
March 05
March 06
Verification event
March 07
March 11
Sharan Majumdar
20 more times bigger errors
than initial condition error
after 5 days
GFS “dropout” case
a)
b)
The time-mean geopotential
height of the 300-hPa
surface for (a) WSR99 and
(b) WSR00. The sample
period starts at 0000 UTC 13
Jan 1999 for WSR99 and at
0000 UTC 23 Jan 2000 for
WSR00. Shown by shades
is the daily amplification of
the most unstable baroclinic
mode (Eady index) for the
time-mean flow in the 850–
925-hPa layer. Dropsonde
locations are shown by
crosses
Szunyogh et al. 2002, M.W.R
Storm track regions are most
unstable regions
ENHANCED OBSERVING PLATFORMS
Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase
allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations
as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and North America
Day -4-6
RAWIN
Russia
D -2-4
G-IV
Collaborative efforts of winter T-PARC
among multi-agencies
CONTRIBUTORS / PARTICIPANTS
• Funding for observing assets
– NOAA, Env. Canada, Roshydromet, Japan
• Science / operational aspects
– US, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Japan, ECMWF/UKMO
(including Universities and Institutions)
• Data archiving
– NASA Langley Research Center
Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (NASA)
OPERATIONS
The main website is the
central place for forecast
products and discussions
A plethora of products
have been used to provide
sound guidance to the
adaptive platforms
Significant amount of
coordination among
different participants
1. Track redesign due to
length change or weather
pattern changes
2. Different time zones
3. Air traffic control
4. “Lost in translation”
Requests from HPC/SPC/OTHERS - example
46N 148E at 21/12Z Asian low
50N 128W at 23/00Z Vancouver area
Priority Valid Time Area Remarks
High 02/22-24/12z 40N 123W West coast pcpn
Moderate 02/22/00z 39N 80W Eastern US system
02/23/00z 42N 72W
Moderate 02/24/00z 35N 90W MS-TN Valley pcpn
02/25/00z 35N 87W
High.......02/23/00Z...33N/83W....Upper trof
supporting psbl E coast storm
Medium.....02/23-24/00Z...40N/122W....CA
precipitation
ECMWF/UKMO DTS system used as a reference in winter T-PARC
Our tool to design the tracks
based on overlaid summary chart
onto Google map
Today’s run +36
Google earth is widely used for track display and distance
measurement
G-IV and C-130 tracks on Feb 13, 12Z
Comparing sensitivity
charts with short lead
forecasts – as a
reference to design the
tracks
A sound check
with short lead
time forecast
After flight check track overlaid on
MTSAT maps
Courtesy of Dr. Asuma Yoshio
Surface pressure and 500mb geopotential height
Wave packet analysis used as a reference
timing and location
From Edmund Chang
Wave packet from
analysis
Winter T-PARC platform statistics
NOAA G-IV:
24 successful missions, 201hrs flown with
456 dropsondes
Out of Japan during Jan 11 to Feb 26, 2009
USAF C-130s:
14 successful missions, 142.8hrs flown
with 212 dropsondes
Out of Alaska during Jan 20 to Feb 13, 2009
E-AMDAR from Lufthansa airlines:
(Descents and Ascents: boxed area)
Total: 802+1103=1905 profiles
7040+10600=17640 en route obs
From Jan 11 – Feb 28, 2009
Enhanced Russia RAOBS:
Total 602 radiosondes released
from a selected of 37 stations
for 33 cases
From Jan 12 to Feb 28, 2009
The tireless G-IV crew and their tracks
T-PARC/WSR09 tracks
NOAA AOC G-IV crews for T-PARC
Evaluation Results
Overall results for Surface pressure
(T-PARC 2009)
In certain cases,
significant RMS
reductions are
observed as
high as 35%
21
Overall results for vector wind
(T-PARC 2009)
22
Surface Pressure RMS vs. Fcst Hours
~10-20% rms error
reduction in winds
RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time
23
Vector Wind RMS vs. Fcst Hours
~10-20% rms error
reduction in winds
Beyond 4 days
RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time
24
T-PARC Summary statistics
Variable
# cases
improved
# cases
neutral
#cases
degraded
Surface pressure
37
0
15
Temperature
35
0
17
Vector Wind
36
0
16
Humidity
28
0
24
39
OVERALL POSITIVE CASES.
13
OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES.
75% improved
25% degraded
25
4 significant systems/events
Date
Verification Leading
Region
hours
Surface
pressure
RMS (with)
Surface
pressure
RMS (w/o)
RMS error
reduction
Jan 31
E (77W, 44N)
84
3.25mb
5.45mb
67%
Feb 06
AK (156W, 58N)
132
7.75mb
9.904mb
27.7%
Feb 13
W (115W,35N)
72
1.20mb
1.618mb
34.8%
Feb 24
W(123W,40N)
108
7.07mb
9.56mb
35.2%
26
Wild West -- The worst weather on this Presidents Day Monday is in
California, where rain, snow and wind are pounding most of the
state. Flood watches have been posted for coastal areas while
winter storm warnings are in effect for most of the eastern part of
the state. The worst of the storminess will end later today, as the
system moves into the Great Basin overnight and Tuesday. That
same storm will eject into the middle and southern states by later
Tuesday and Wednesday. Feb 16, 2009 from USATODAY
Up to two meters of snow had fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the
past week
Review the Feb 13, 12Z
missions
Wild West -- The worst weather on this Presidents Day Monday is in
California, where rain, snow and wind are pounding most of the
state. Flood watches have been posted for coastal areas while
winter storm warnings are in effect for most of the eastern part of
the state. The worst of the storminess will end later today, as the
system moves into the Great Basin overnight and Tuesday. That
same storm will eject into the middle and southern states by later
Tuesday and Wednesday. Feb 16, 2009 from USATODAY
Up to two meters of snow had fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the
past week
March 1, 2009 CA Storm
• Weather event with
a large societal impact
• Each GFS run
verified against its
own analysis – 60 hr
forecast
• Impact on surface
pressure verification
• RMS error
improvement: 35.2%
(7.07mb vs. 9.56mb)
Surface pressure from analysis
(hPa; solid contours)
Forecast Improvement (hPa;
shown in red)
Forecast Degradation (hPa; blue)
Targeted in high impact
weather area marked by the
circle
30
March 1, 2009 CA Storm
Forecast improvement
Red: forecast
improvement
Globally averaged fit of
surface pressure:
Difference of forecastanalysis
31
WHY T-PARC? The best example
Major snowstorm roars up coast
Atlantic coast braces for biggest snowstorm of the season
March 2, 2009, heavy rainfall near CA on the 27th, Feb
Strong connection of the
tropical and extra-tropical
systems
TARGETED DROPSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS
Jan 20/12UTC high impact per-observation
Courtesy of Rolf Langland
Summed impact of dropsonde
observations (error reduction is
NEGATIVE, units are J kg-1)
JANUARY 2009
Error Reduction
Error Increase
FEBRUARY 2009
1x10-3 J kg-1 (Moist Total Energy Norm)
1x10-3 J kg-1 (Moist Total Energy Norm)
Total # of targeted radiosonde data =
27,508 (06UTC and 18UTC)
Number of targeted radiosonde profiles
= 247 (33 stations provided at least
one profile)
Total targeted radiosonde impact = 0.4322 J kg-1
For comparison: 00UTC and 12UTC
observations from these same stations: 4.24 J kg-1 and 2,154 profiles during all of
January 2009
Total # of targeted radiosonde data = 29,898
(06UTC and 18UTC)
Number of targeted radiosonde profiles =
272 (33 stations provided at least one
profile)
Total targeted radiosonde impact = -0.6626 J
kg-1
Courtesy of Rolf Langland
JANUARY 2009
FEBRUARY 2009
1x10-3 J kg-1 (Moist Total Energy Norm)
Error Reduction
Error Increase
Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR
ascent/descent data = 17,444 (12-31
January 2009)
Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = 0.583 J kg-1
GLOBAL Lufthansa AMDAR ascent/descent
impact = -2.89 J kg-1 and 113,151 data during
all of January 2009
Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR ascent/descent
data = 24,423 (1-28 February 2009)
Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = -0.7663 J
kg-1
Courtesy of Rolf Langland
A myriad of research interests in Winter T-PARC
Strong mapping into the US THORPEX Science Plan ( 13 of 15 priorities)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rossby wave packet analysis and IPY connection (3.4,4.4)
Meso-scale storm structure and moist processes studies (4.1)
Multi-scale tropical influences – YOTC (3.1,3.3,4.4)
Data assimilation: best use of observations (4.2)
Satellite data calibration/validation with in situ data (4.2)
Adaptive targeting studies (4.3)
Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting & socio-economic
applications - Winter Olympic Demo (4.5,5.1-5)
Field phase completed, data archived by NASA
How to support post-field research/evaluation?
Data archive
contribution by NASA-Langley Research Center
Need user account to
access
Support sftp and scp for
scripting purposes
Please contact us:
[email protected]
Data:
satellite data
conventional data
cloud images with tracks
Some DTS products
Web address: http://science.larc.nasa.gov/T-PARC/
Analysis and forecast
(pressure level data)
Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (LARC)
Summary and Plans
• Field phase successfully completed
– Winter T-PARC marks the first time vertical profiling of winter
storms conducted west of the dateline
• Data archived at NASA (LARC)
• A wide variety of research opportunities now open
– An ideal framework for research studies such as
•
•
•
•
•
dynamical /physical processes
storm initiation/propagation
the role of moist processes
interaction of tropical convection with extra-tropical storms
Socio-economical impact studies
• Need to identify funding resources for further research
• Ongoing evaluation
– NRL preliminary evaluation
• large positive impact on the 24hr forecast
• more than 90% of the data reduced forecast errors
– NCEP data denial experiments
• Full rejection (done)
• Only rejecting the aircraft data (ongoing)
• Propose a joint meeting with summer T-PARC next year
GDAS: 300mb v (ave:30-60N)
PRX2: 300mb v (ave:30-60N)
PRX2-PRX4:
300mb v (ave:30-60N)
Sensitivity of 24hr Forecast to initial conditions
JANUARY 2009
FEBRUARY 2009
Courtesy of Rolf Langland
WTPARC Targeted Observation Summary – NOGAPS/NAVDAS
Impact on moist total-energy 24h forecast error norm in global domain
January 2009
Impact
# of obs
Avg impact per-ob
EAsian EAMDAR -0.5830 Jkg-1
17,444
3.34 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Dropsondes
-0.6679 Jkg-1
27,444
2.43 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Russian Raobs
(06z and 18Z)
-0.4332 Jkg-1
27,508
1.58 x 10-5 Jkg-1
February 2009
Impact
# of obs
Avg impact per-ob
EAsian EAMDAR -0.7663 Jkg-1
24,423
3.14 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Dropsondes
-0.7176 Jkg-1
32,172
2.23 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Russian Raobs
(06 and 18Z)
Petropavlosk
-0.6626 Jkg-1
29,898
2.22 x 10-5 Jkg-1
-0.2047 Jkg-1
3,396
6.03 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Courtesy of Rolf Langland
WTPARC Targeted Observation Summary – NOGAPS/NAVDAS
Impact on moist total-energy 24h forecast error norm in global domain
January 2009
Impact
# of obs
Avg impact per-ob
EAsian EAMDAR -0.5830 Jkg-1
17,444
3.34 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Dropsondes
-0.6679 Jkg-1
27,444
2.43 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Russian Raobs
(06z and 18Z)
-0.4332 Jkg-1
27,508
1.58 x 10-5 Jkg-1
February 2009
Impact
# of obs
Avg impact per-ob
EAsian EAMDAR -0.7663 Jkg-1
24,423
3.14 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Dropsondes
-0.7176 Jkg-1
32,172
2.23 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Russian Raobs
(06 and 18Z)
Petropavlosk
-0.6626 Jkg-1
29,898
2.22 x 10-5 Jkg-1
-0.2047 Jkg-1
3,396
6.03 x 10-5 Jkg-1
Raob Station 32540
Petropavlosk Kamchatskoe (53.02N, 158.72E)
Feb 2009 (very large forecast error reduction)
Total Impact of all soundings = -0.4281 J kg-1 (10,320 data)
Just the 06Z and 18Z soundings = -0.2047 J kg-1 (3,396 data)
Station 32540 radiosonde impact
on 24H FORECAST ERROR IN
NOGAPS/NAVDAS – Feb 2009
Number of Station 32540
radiosonde observations
assimilated in NOGAPS/NAVDAS
6-hour assimilation windows
Summed impact of Station 32540
observations (error reduction is
NEGATIVE, units are J kg-1)