Transcript The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program: Local Benefits With Global Results Luis A Cifuentes P.

The U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency Integrated
Environmental Strategies (IES)
Program:
Local Benefits With Global
Results
Luis A Cifuentes
P. Catholic University of Chile
In Session Workshop on Mitigation
23 May 2005
Contents
• Overview of the IES Program
• Relevant results from some participating countries
• Conclusions
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IES: U.S. EPA’s Integrated Environmental
Strategies Program
• Established in 1998 as a capacity-enhancing cobenefits program with a focus on GHG reductions.
• Partners local teams in developing countries with
experts and tools from U.S. EPA, other IES projects,
and other organizations (e.g., U.S. AID, NREL).
• Identifies and analyzes integrated (i.e., greenhousegas mitigation and air quality) strategies and cobenefits.
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What are integrated measures?
 Low-sulfur coal
Integrated
 Smokestack controls
 Catalytic converters
 Inspection and
maintenance
 Diesel particle traps
 Evaporative controls
Local
Jason West et al (2002)
 Clean fuels/renewables
 Energy efficiency
programs
Global
 Fuel switching
 Public transport and land
use
 Retirement of older
vehicles
 Efficiency standards for
new vehicles/appliances
 Carbon sequestration
 Forest management
 Control of other GHGs
(CH4, N2O, CFCs, SF6)
 Geoengineering
Integrated
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What are “co-benefits”?
• All the beneficial outcomes of a policy that reduces
two or more air emissions simultaneously.
• For IES, reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases
as well as local, conventional air pollutants.
• Includes human health benefits and associated
economic benefits due to reduced local air pollution.
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Co-Benefits Framework
Technology
options
Policy
options
Activities / Energy Use
GHG
Reduction
Targets
GHG
Emissions
Local/Regional
Pollutant
Emissions
Global warming
potential
reduction
Ambient
Concentrations
reductions
Long-term
benefits
Short/medium
term
benefits
AQ
Standards
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IES goals
• Identify strategies that reduce GHG emissions and
improve local air quality while meeting public health,
economic development objectives.
• Provide stakeholders with quantitative estimates of
global and local co-benefits of policies and
technologies.
• Engage stakeholders to lay groundwork for
implementation of cost-effective air quality management
strategies.
• Build analytical, institutional, and human capacity
for multidisciplinary analysis of GHG mitigation, health,
and environmental impacts of alternative strategies.
• Transfer tools and methodologies for co-benefits
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Participating Countries
Countries with IES projects: China, India, Philippines, South
Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico
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IES analytical approach
Data
Data
inputs
Energy & GHG
mitigation
scenarios
Projected
GHG/pollutant
emissions
Projected
concentrations
Projected
health benefits
& end points
Energy/
emissions
models
Air quality
models
Health
effects
models
Economic
valuation
models
Models
Projected
economic
benefits &
end points
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Challenges of the Analysis
• Emissions data
• Moving from emission inventories to exposure
levels
• Health Impacts Quantification
• Cost analysis
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How can IES help
• Provides expertise in key issues:
– Emissions inventories
– Transport modeling
– Atmospheric Modeling
– Health Impacts Quantification
• Two specific models for quantify and value reduced
health impacts:
– BenMap
– Apheba
• Network of IES teams provides help and
cooperation
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Overview of BenMAP Model
(4) Health impact
functions
(incidence modeling)
(3) Characterizing air
quality changes
(model and monitor data)
(2) BenMAP data
needs and data input
(1) OVERVIEW –
incidence and benefits
calculation
(5) Aggregation and
pooling of results
(6) Valuation functions
(benefits modeling)
(7) Uncertainty
analysis
(8) BenMAP flexibility
and its application in
supporting specialized
analyses and research
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BenMAP Data Needs – linkages and interdependencies
GIS coverage (map) of study
area
Monitored air quality data
Modeled (gridded) air quality data
Demographic data (projected to
future simulation year)
Health effects
incidence
estimation
Baseline disease incidence &
prevalence data (projected to future
simulation year)
Health impact functions
• chronic
• time-series (ecologic)
Economic valuation functions
Income elasticity
studies
Benefits
(monetary)
estimation
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APHEBA
Air Pollution Health Effects Benefits Analysis model
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Key Results from IES studies
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1. In general, there is correlation between global and
local pollutant emissions reductions
Annual Greenhouse Gas
Reductions
Emission Reductions in Seoul
8,000
2000
2010
2020
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Annual PM10 Reductions
Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
30,000
Tons of PM10
Thousands of metric
tons of carbon
10,000
25,000
20,000
2000
2010
2020
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Baseline Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario 16
1
2
3
4
Reductions of emissions of GHG and PM2.5
precursors are usually correlated
Santiago Study
100%
Wood to NG (deforestation)
Residential Kerosene to NG
PM2.5 Precursors Reduction (%)
Incandescent to CFLs
Taxi Renovation
80%
Retrofitting EPA 94
CNG Buses
Boilers: Diesel to NG
60%
Mercury to Sodium Lamps
(Peak)
Diesel-electric
buses
40%
FL High Efficiency Reflectors
(Peak)
Diesel Particulate Traps
20%
Congestion Taxes - High
Congestion Taxes - low
0%
CNG Conversion Kit
Executive Buses
Extended Buses Replacement
-20%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Carbon Reduction (%)
80%
100%
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2 Health benefits usually overcome the cost
of measures
Hyderabad Study:
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3 Health benefits are usually larger than
GHG benefits:
México City Study
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Source: McKinley et al 2005. (CO2 reductions valued at US$ 7(2-22) per ton)
4. The ranking of the measures changes
when global benefits are considered
México City Study
(Source: McKinley et al 2005) CO2 reductions valued at US$ 7(2-22) per ton 20
Since the rankings are not exactly the same:
Santiago Study:
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Rank Order Carbon Abatement Costs
Diesel Particulate Traps
Residential Wood to NG
CNG Bus (1999)
Residential Kerosene to
NG CNG Conv. Kit (1999)
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Hybrid Diesel-Electric
Buses (1999)
Taxi Renovation
CNG Bus (2000)
CNG Conv. Kit (2000)
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Hybrid Diesel-Electric
Buses (2000)
FL High Efficiency
Reflectors (B)
Mercury to Sodium (B)
FL High Efficiency
Reflectors (P)
Boilers - Diesel to NG
5
Residential Wood to NG
(def.)
Incandescent to CFL (B)
Mercury to Sodium (P)
Incandescent to CFL (P)
0
0
5
10
Rank Order PM2.5 Abatement Costs
Source: Cifuentes et al 2000
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20
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5. IES results have found their way into local
policy-making
Examples of IES Analysis Integrated
into On-Going Planning Efforts
– Santiago (Chile) Decontamination Plan
– Shanghai (China) 10th and 11th Five –Year
Plan
– Beijing (China) 2008 Olympics AQ Plan
– Seoul (Korea) Air Quality Management Plan
– Mexico City (Mexico) PROAIRE Plan
– Philippines Clean Air Act Evaluation
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Summary: IES tools/resources
• IES Handbook: Guidance document for
policymakers, technicians
• International version of manual for EPA’s Environmental
Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP)
software
• Air Pollution Health Benefits Assessment Model
(APHEBA) users’ guide and training course.
– Will provide a resource for conducting health benefits
assessments of changes in air pollution concentrations.
• Training course and materials on health benefits analysis.
– Will provide basic information and training to country
experts with conducting health benefits analysis as part
of integrated environmental analysis projects.
• “Reduced form” analytical tools and methodologies
– Will support analysis of air pollution and GHG
mitigation co-benefits where local data for detailed
analysis of air pollution public health benefits is lacking. 23
Final Comments
• The IES program has so far succeeded in developing
integrated analyses in many countries, engaging local
policy makers and building local capacity. Many of
these analysis would not have been performed
otherwise.
• The analysis of integrated measures shows that most
of them have a positive correlation between GHG and
local air pollutant reductions
• However, for most measures, public health benefits are
an order of magnitude bigger than the potential
benefits from carbon reduction
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For more information
Katherine Sibold, IES Program Manager
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC
[email protected] or +1 202 343-9280
[email protected]
http://www.epa.gov/ies
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