Household projections in the South East Regional Plan, and update on the EiP Robin Edwards Hampshire County Council and Chairman of the Demography Sub Group, South.
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Household projections in the South East Regional Plan, and update on the EiP Robin Edwards Hampshire County Council and Chairman of the Demography Sub Group, South East England Regional Assembly Content 1) Household Projections in the preparation of the Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East Region 2) Regional Assembly’s response to the Official Household Projections at the EiP 3) House price inflation and housing supply Timetable for Preparation of RSS • Mid 2003 - technical work commenced • April 2004 - Spring debates with stakeholders on policy options • Winter 2004-05 - consultation with South East region residents on draft policies and proposals • Mid 2005 - Publication of Draft Plan • Autumn 2005 - consultation with stakeholders on Draft Plan • Winter 2005/2006 - Analysis of comments and amendments to Plan • April 2006 - Submission of Final Plan • Summer 2006 - Submission of Responses to the South East Region Spatial Strategy • November 2006 - Examination in Public commences Projections Timetable • Mid 2003 - official subnational population projections and household projections 1996 based • April 2004 - draft 2002 based subnational population projections published, and 2001 Census results available • Autumn 2004 - population and household projections required for inclusion in plan for consultation with S.E. region residents • Late 2005/early 2006 - timescale for official 2003 based household projections • Not possible to wait for official projections. Therefore, Regional Assembly Demography sub group chairman commissioned to produce updated household projections taking account of most recent data Data • • • • Relative to 1996 based Subnational Population projections, draft 2002-based projections took account of: 2001 Census base population GAD 2002 based fertility and mortality rate projections increased international net in migration unattributable population change 2001 Census data allowed recalibration of: • marital status structure • household composition and household representative rates Results Source DETR 1996 -based Period 1996-2021 RPG 9 2001-2021 Period Source DETR 1996 -based 1996-2021 Reg. Assem. 2002 -based 2002-2027 RPG 9 2001-2021 Reg. Assem. 2002 -based2002-2027 DCLG 2003 -based 2001-2026 DCLG 2003 -based 2001-2026 H/Hold Change Dwellings Change p.a. 835,000 34,500 Results N/A H/Hold Change Dwellings Change p.a. 835,000 34,500 847,000 N/A 28,000 847,000 890,000 35,000 890,000 36,800 28,000 35,000 36,800 Regional Assembly Consultation with Residents, Winter 2004/05 Regional Assembly Consultation with Residents, Winter 2004/05 2006-2026 N/A 32,000 2006-2026 N/A 32,000 2006-2026 2006-2026 N/A 2006-2026 N/A 2006-2026 N/A 28,000 28,000 25,000 N/A 25,000 Start of EiP Submitted Plan April 2006 28,900 Dwellings per annum 2006 to 2026 DCLG Household Projections March 2006 38,000 dwellings per annum 2006 to 2026 Criticisms levelled at Housing Proposals in the RSS for the South East • Dwellings proposals should be increased to be consistent with the official household projections • There was already a housing crisis in the South East. Therefore dwellings proposals should exceed number required to satisfy official household projections Regional Assembly EiP response to Household Projections issue • 1. Zero Net Migration Projection 2006 to 2026 = 20,000 dwellings per annum • 2. 28,900 dwellings = 8,600 in migrant h/holds per annum 19,000 net in migrants) 5,700 and 12,500 if backlog cleared within first 10 years) • Therefore dwellings in excess of 28,900 not required to satisfy locally generated need, and any additions proposed would only draw in additional in migrants Regional Assembly EiP response to Household Projections issue (cont) • 3. 2003 based household projections - not an assessment of housing need - ephemeral and subject to revision - 2004-based Subnational population projections - 2005 divorce rate - impact on one person households (change in one person households headed by divorced people 2001 to 2021 84,100 (1996 based), 211,300 (2003 based) - 1996 based household rep rates over projected one person households headed by males in 2001 by 16,000 • No requirement to slavishly follow household projections, and issues raised above indicate it would be very unwise to do so Regional Assembly response to charge of "Housing crisis" in South East Indicators of Housing crisis: • overcrowding • sharing households • concealed households • homeless households • reduction in household formation rates Overcrowding Households over One Person per Room South East Region 1991 49,643 1.7 2001 43,015 1.3 Sources: 1991 Census, Table 42 & 2001 Census, Table 53 N.B. Censuses do not provide information on bedroom standard Households Below Bedroom Standard South East Region 3 Year Av. 2001 60 2002 58 2003 56 2004 55 % 1.81 1.77 1.73 1.68 Source: Survey of English Housing All Regions Mean percentages from 2003-04 to 2005-06 Surveys North East North West Yorkshire and the Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West Source: Survey of English Housing 2005-06 Table 9 1.7 2.1 1.4 1.6 2.7 1.6 6.6 1.8 1.6 Sharing Households not in Self Contained Accom South East Region No. % 1991 32,247 1.1 2001 11,037 0.3 Sources: 1991 Census, Table 41. 2001 Census Table 58 Households not in Self Contained Accom South East Region 3 Year Av. % 2001 35 1.06 2002 29 0.87 2003 19 0.57 Source: Survey of English Housing Sharing Households not in Self Contained Accommodation All Regions 2003-04 Surveys North East North West Yorkshire and the Humber East Midlands West Midlands East London South East South West 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.6 0.6 1.0 Source: Survey of English Housing Table S136 Number of Concealed Families South East Region % of all families 1991 34,000 1.6 2001 23,063 1.0 Sources: 1991 Census Table 88; 2001 Census Table 11 N.B Survey of English Housing does not provide information under this definition Hundreds Homelessness - South East Region 160 homeless hholds in priority Need 140 hholds in temporary accommodation 120 100 60 40 20 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 No. of hholds 80 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Years Source: CLG P1E Homelessness returns 2005 2006 Official Projections of Average Household Size South East Region Year 2001 1989-based 2.36 1992-based 2.34 1996-based 2.35 2001 Census 2.36 2001 Census (adjusted) 2.38 Chart Sales through Right to Buy compared with RSL and Dwelling completions, 1981-2005 - England Sales through Right to Buy 180000 160000 RSL and LA dwelling completions 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 Year 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 0 1981 Number 140000 House Price Inflation and Housing Supply • Barker Review of Housing Supply - high house price inflation in the UK results from a shortfall in supply • Martin Weale, Director of NIESR - "(house prices in the UK) are of the order of 20 per cent higher than can be explained by the interaction of supply and demand". National Institute Economic Review (Jan 2006) Barker Review failed to take account of: • 1. Owner occupiers perception of housing as an investment, not just a place to live • 2. Impact of the Buy to Let market Housing as an Investment • • • • • Do you agree or disagree with the statement: "Owning your own home is a good long term investment" Agree - 96 per cent Survey of English Housing 2004-05. People are prepared to borrow to the maximum available to them, in the expectation of making a capital gain • Mechanisms and agencies involved: - income multiples - repayment periods - interest rates - estate agencies Buy to Let Number of Buy to Value of Buy to Let Mortgages Let Mortgages £m 1999 73,200 5,400 2005 701,900 73,400 Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, July 2006 Household change by tenure England Social Rented -316 Private Rented 78 All Tenures 1995-2000 Owner Occupied 800 2000-2005 379 -274 368 473 562 Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (DCLG Table S101) South East Region 2000-2005 43 -20 40 Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (DCLG Table S135) 62