Transcript The Great Transition: Shifting from Fossil Fuels to Solar and Wind Energy Lester R.

The Great Transition:
Shifting from Fossil Fuels to
Solar and Wind Energy
Lester R. Brown
and J. Matthew Roney
7 May 2015
Lexington GWAC
CLOSING COAL PLANTS
Photo Credit: National Renewable
Energy Laboratory
Peak Coal in China?
• China’s coal use:
Coal Consumption in China, 1965-2014
2,000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
Million Tons Oil Equivalent
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: BP; NBS
2005
2015
– Exceeds the rest of the
world combined
– But fell in 2014 for the first
time in recent history
• Peak coal is near:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Air pollution concerns
Environmental regulations
Wind and solar booming
Improving efficiency
Slowing economic growth
U.S.-China climate
agreement
India Coal Use Growing
Coal Consumption in India, 1965-2013
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
350
Million Tons Oil Equivalent
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: BP
2005
2015
• Indian government claims
to be doubling down on
coal, planning hundreds
of new plants
• How many will be built
remains to be seen
– Urban air pollution worse
than in China
– Local opposition to coal
– Taxes on coal doubled,
partly funding solar
development
– Solar costs undercut the
grid in much of the country
Peak Coal in the United States
Coal Consumption in the United States,
1965-2014
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
700
Million Tons Oil Equivalent
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: EIA
2005
2015
• Lower natural gas
prices, air pollution
regulations, and local
campaigns are closing
coal plants across the
United States
• Australia, Canada, and
many E.U. countries
have also passed peak
coal
T H E R I S E A N D FA L L
OF OIL
Photo Credit: U.S. Coast Guard
U.S. Oil Use Down
U.S. Oil Consumption and Production, 1965-2014
Million Barrels Per Day
20
Consumption
15
10
Production
5
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
Source: EPI from EIA
2005
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
25
2015
• U.S. #1 consumer
• U.S. oil use fell 8.5%
from 2005 to 2014
–
–
–
–
People driving less
Better vehicle efficiency
Public transit expanding
Culture change: young
people no longer
prioritizing cars
– Car sharing and bike
sharing spreading
Natural Gas: Bridge Fuel?
• Horizontal drilling and
hydraulic fracturing 
U.S. oil and gas boom
• Methane leaks along
the supply chain: gas
may be more climate
disrupting than coal
• Other concerns: wasted
investment in shortterm infrastructure;
water and air pollution;
earthquakes
Photo Credit: Bilfinger SE/U.S. Department of Energy
THE SOLAR REVOLUTION
Photo Credit: Dennis Schroeder / NREL
The Solar Revolution
• Solar PV growing
> 50% annually
Levelized Cost of Energy for Utility-scale
Solar PV Systems in the United States,
2009-2014
• Globally, solar panels
> $74/W in 1972
• In 2014, < $0.70/W
• Installed cost of PV
down 50% since 2011
Image Credit: Lazard
Solar Beating the Grid
Cumulative Installed Solar Photovoltaics
Capacity in Leading Countries, 2000-2014
• In growing number of
markets, solar electricity
now cheaper than grid
avg
• Staggering goals in China
and India – 100 GW each
• Policy giving way to
economics
Germany
35,000
30,000
China
25,000
Japan
20,000
Italy
15,000
U.S.
10,000
5,000
0
2000
2005
2010
Source: EPI from BP, IEA-PVPS
2015
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
– Solarization of U.S. home
sector
40,000
Megawatts
• U.S. ramping up
45,000
PV Improving Access to Electricity
• Estimated 1.3 billion live without electricity access
• India:
– Replacing polluting kerosene lamps with PV charging
for CFL or LED lamps and a cell phone: 1) lowers
monthly outlays, and 2) pays for itself in ~3 years
– National goal = 20m solar lighting systems by 2022
– Solar-powered drip irrigation program
• Bangladesh:
– As of 2014, with World Bank help, over 70,000 solar
home systems were being installed each month
Concentrating Solar Power
• In CSP systems, mirrors
concentrate sunlight to
drive conventional steam
turbines or engines
• By mid-2014, world had
4,100 MW of CSP, mostly
in Spain and the U.S.
• Thermal storage in
molten salts allows for
generation after sundown
Photo Credit: Sandia National Laboratories
Solar Water Heaters
• Rooftop solar thermal collectors
heat water directly
• China dominates: enough
installed rooftop systems to
supply 170 million households
• Used in some 85% of Israeli
homes
• Also popular in Europe (e.g.
Germany and Austria)
Photo Credit: www.davidlearnschinese.com
THE AGE OF WIND
Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Drenaline
The Age of Wind
World Cumulative Installed Wind Power
Capacity, 1980-2014
• Generation growing > 20%
per year
400,000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
350,000
300,000
Megawatts
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: EPI from GWEC, Worldwatch
2020
• 370 GW worldwide
– Enough for 90m U.S. homes
• Development heating up in
Latin America
• Asia overtook Europe in
2014
World Wind Leaderboard
• Denmark: wind will be
cheapest electricity
source by 2016, half
cost of new coal or gas
120,000
China
105,000
90,000
75,000
United
States
60,000
45,000
Germany
30,000
Spain
India
United
Kingdom
15,000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
• U.K. and Germany:
wind up, coal down
135,000
Megawatts
• China added 23 GW in
2014
Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity in
Leading Countries, 1995-2014
2020
Source: EPI from GWEC, Worldwatch, CREIA, EWEA, BWEA
U.S. Wind Power
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
Megawatts
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Source: EPI from GWEC, AWEA
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
130,000
Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity in
Leading Countries and Texas, 2014
• China has greater installed
wind capacity, but U.S.
wind farms generate more
electricity
• Cost of U.S. wind power
down ~60% since 2009
• Nine states generate >12%
of electricity from wind
• Texas 9% wind, > nuclear
Wind Overtakes Nuclear in China
• Wind is now China’s #3
electricity source behind
coal and hydro
Wind- and Nuclear-generated Electricity
in China, 1995-2014
180
Wind
140
• Wind potential could
meet 10x demand
• Wind could meet power
needs of most of top 10
carbon emitters
120
Terawatt-hours
• Goal = 200 GW of wind
capacity by 2020
Nuclear
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: EPI from BP, NEA, CNEA
2015
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
160
NUCLEAR POWER IN
DECLINE
Photo Credit: Sandia Science & Technology Park
Nuclear Power in Decline
World Electricity Generation from Nuclear
Power Plants, 1970-2014
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
3,000
2,500
2,000
Terawatt-hours
• Global nuclear
generation peaked
in 2006
• Peaked in France
in 2005; United
States in 2010
• Number of
operating reactors
dropped from high
of 438 in 2002 to
390 as of end-2014
1,500
1,000
500
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: EPI from BP, IAEA/Chabot
2020
Costly from Cradle to Grave
• Building new nuclear facilities
has become more expensive
over time
• Construction delays and cost
overruns typical
• Aging nuclear plants’
operation, maintenance, fuel
costs rising
• Accident risk
• Waste issue unresolved
• Decommissioning
Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons/
Tennessee Valley Authority
Low-Carbon, Low-Risk Energy
Building wind and solar power capacity is
quicker and more affordable than building
nuclear—without the financial, environmental,
and health risks associated with atomic power
Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons/ILIOTEC Solar
GmbH; Iberdrola Renewables Inc.
TA P P I N G T H E E A R T H ’ S
H E AT
Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons/Gretar
Ívarsson
Tapping the Earth’s Heat
• Geothermal
resources richest
in areas with high
tectonic activity
• Some 40 countries
with 860 million
people could meet
all their electricity
needs with
geothermal energy
Image Credit: NOAA mod. USGS/Topinka
Geothermal Power
United States
Philippines
Indonesia
Italy
New Zealand
Mexico
Iceland
Japan
Kenya
Turkey
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Nicaragua
Source: BP
0
1,000
2,000
Megawatts
3,000
Earth Policy Institute - www.earth-policy.org
Geothermal Electricity-Generating Capacity in
Leading Countries, 2013
4,000
• Philippines’ goal is 3,300
MW by 2030
• Indonesia’s target is 10,000
MW by 2025
• Japan has enough
geothermal power potential
to meet over half its
electricity needs
• Enhanced Geothermal
Systems technology could
lead to some 500,000 MW of
geothermal power in the
United States
Iceland: Geothermal Powerhouse
• Nearly 30% of electricity
from geothermal
• Geothermal heat covers
close to 90% of space
heating
• Other direct uses:
– Swimming/bathing, fish
farming, greenhouse
heating, snow melting
Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons/Bloody-libu
A C C E L E R AT I N G T H E
TRANSITION
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Joe Gough
Saving Energy Saves Money
• Efficiency measures by 11
industrial countries since the
1970s saved $740 billion in
2011 alone
• Worldwide switch to efficient
lighting solutions could allow
closure of 270 coal plants
• Japan’s Top Runner
Program: model for ratcheting
up efficiency standards
Image Credit: METI
Electrifying Transport
• Lithium ion battery
costs down 14% per
year since 2007
• >40% of all EVs ever
sold, bought in 2014
• Driving on wind costs
equivalent of ~$1.00
per gallon gasoline
• UBS report:
PV+EVs+Home battery
systems
Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons/RudolfSimon
Putting a Price on Carbon
Image Credit: World Bank
Renewables Make Business Sense
• Large investment banks channeling
tens of billions into renewables
• > 600 U.S. institutions at 100%
green power
• Walmart aiming for 660 PV systems
on U.S. buildings by 2018
• Apple’s 25-year solar power
purchase agreement with First Solar
to supply CA operations
• Google’s 100% renewable electricity
goal: wind; abandoned CA oil and
gas field  82-MW solar farm
Photo Credit: Walmart/Flickr; SunEdison
New Energy Economy
Photo Credit: BNEF
New Energy Economy
• Each country can take
advantage of its unique
mix of renewable
resources
• Developing countries may
bypass the electric grid
and jump straight to
distributed solar
• Results we can live with:
Cleaner air, cleaner water,
and a more stable climate
Photo Credit: Flickr/SELF
To learn more about the energy
transition…
The book and supporting
materials are available at
www.earth-policy.org
Twitter: @EarthPolicy
Thank you!