Transcript VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS AT NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE OF TURKISH EARTHQUAKES Istanbul University, Istanbul Medical Faculty, Department of Public Health Yakut Irmak ÖZDEN, Ayse Emel.

VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION
AND PREPAREDNESS AT
NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE
OF TURKISH EARTHQUAKES
Istanbul University, Istanbul Medical Faculty,
Department of Public Health
Yakut Irmak ÖZDEN, Ayse Emel ÖNAL,
Sıdıka Tekeli YEŞİL
• For many years, public health researchers have
directed their efforts towards health problems
arising mainly from faulty social and
economic structures and the importance of
natural factors, has been to some extent
neglected.
• Of course, the impact of demographic, social
and economic factors on nature should not be
overlooked either. Mankind has been
attempting to manipulate his natural
environment – sometimes in a destructive
manner- according to his economic needs,
without taking into account the new risks
• The contribution of human made and natural disasters to the
global disease burden is expected to climb from the 12th
place in 1998 to the 8th place in 2020. The statistics
gathered at the CRED show that in 2002, 488 natural
disasters were reported in the world, causing the death of 40
327 people. Furthermore, 48 708 persons were injured and a
total of 621 331 512 were affected due to the consequences
of natural disasters. On the other hand, according to WHO,
by the end of the 20th century, the impact of natural
disasters to the world economy reached 50 billion dollars
annualy.
• Accelerated changes in demographic and economic trends
have disturbed the balance between ecosystems.
Environmental degradation intensifies disasters, and
increases the potential for secondary disasters.
• At the 22nd World Congress of Architecture
held in Istanbul last month, the participants
unanimously declared that the lack of politics
of development in industrialisation,
urbanization and architecture oriented towards
human welfare and security was much more
responsible for the consequences of disasters
than nature itself.
• Each hazard and each geographical area has its
own vulnerabilities and consequences. The
severity of the toll paid at the disasters mostly
depend on faulty economic and social
infrastuctures of the affected community.
• Disasters do not kill or strike people in the same way, it
depends on who you are and to what society you
belong. According to World Bank’s estimations, 97% of
deaths related to natural disasters occur in the
developing countries.
On the other hand, the ratio of economic loss to GNP
in those countries far exceeds the ones in developed
countries
• In the case of earthquakes, vulnerability factors
may be summarised as fallows:
-Location of settlements in seismic areas,
-Inadequate building practices and regulations,
-Dense concentration of buildings with high
occupancy,
-The lack of warning systems and of public
awareness on earthquake risks.
• In the developing countries, the main increase in
risk can be attributed to overcrowding, faulty
land-use planning and construction, inadequate
infrastructure and services and environmental
degradation.
• The probability that a particular system or
population will be affected by hazards is
known as “risk”. Hence, it can be said that,
• Risk=Vulnerability x Hazard
or, taking into account coping capacity:
• Risk= VulnerabilityxHazard
Coping Capacity
-Vulnerability has always economic,
social, organisational and
educational dimensions.
• “Mitigation” can be defined as the permanent
reduction of the disaster risk and can be categorized
as “primary mitigation” which refers to reducing the
presence of the hazard and of the vulnerability, and
“secondary mitigation”, which refers to reducing the
impact of the hazard.
• “Preparedness” covers the measures that insure the
organized mobilization of personel, funds,
equipment and supplies within a safe environment
for effective relief, “response” can be defined as the
set of activities implemented after the impact of a
disaster in order to assess the needs, reduce the
suffering, limit the spread and the consequences of
the disaster and open the way to rehabilitation.
• Turkey is located between Europe and Asia
with a population reaching 70 millions. The
growth rate of the population, which was
nearing 3% during the period 1955-1980,
has been diminishing since and was reduced
to 1.5% in the last years. The country has
been undergoing a very rapid process of
urbanization in the last 50 years and the
ratio of urban popülation, which was 26% in
1950, had climbed to 60% by the end of the
century, the urban population growth rate
was 3.3% between 1990-2000.
• Turkey is a land of earthquakes because of
its location. There are seven main tectonic
areas in Turkey. Nearly 96 % of the country
with different rates, is located on seismic
risks areas. 66% of this large earthquake
zone cconsists of active fault systems,
which means that 70% of the population
and 75% of industrial establishments in
those regions can face with an earthquake
anytime. Among the disasters that regularly
strike Turkey, earthquakes have always
caused the major share of causalties and
physical damage.
The Marmara Region is one of the highest risk areas. Nearly
one third of Turkey’s population live in this region. With the
highest population growth rate (2.8%). This growth rate is
mostly due to internal migration for employment
opportunities.
• This high-density population brings many
problems with such as the increase in the
number of buildings and settlements. The
number of buildings in Istanbul, which was
1 378 000 in 1984, had increased at the end
of the century to 3 393 000 with a growth
rate of 146%. Besides its demographic
features, this region plays a leading role in
the economy of the country (Its share in
industrial GDP reaches 33.8%) and an
important part of all qualified people live
here.
• Unfortunately a very severe earthquake is
expected to happen with a very high
degree of probability within the next 30
years and its epicenter will be this time
much closer to İstanbul metropolitan area.
Estimated Damage and Losses Due to Expected
Earthquake ( According to “Credible worst scenario”)
Deaths
40 000 - 50 000
Shelter Needs
600 000 Households
Losses due to building damages
11 Billions U.S. Dollars
Damaged Buildings
Beyond Repair
40 000
Extensive Damage
70 000
Moderate Damage
200 000