Transcript Adaptation: Perspectives and Experience from the EU Abigail Howells – DG Environment European Commission BASIC Workshop - New Delhi 11th / 12th May 2006

Adaptation: Perspectives and
Experience from the EU
Abigail Howells – DG Environment
European Commission
BASIC Workshop - New Delhi 11th / 12th May 2006
A Changing Climate: the evidence
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Raising temperatures: the global mean surface
temperature increase by 0.6ºCelsius over the 20th
century (greater over the land than over the oceans)
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The increase during 20th century was greatest in
past 1000 years
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Predictions of a global increase between 1.4 and
5.8ºCelsius by 2100 (from the IPCC’s TAR)
A Changing Climate: (cont.)
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Sea level rise – in response to thermal expansion of
oceans and melting of glaciers and ice caps, global
msl projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88m between 1990
and 2100. Consequences on costal erosion, flood
and water resources (e.g. salt-water intrusion)
Melting of ice sheets: e.g. Greenland - impacts on
sea level rise (7m) and may cause shutting down of
Gulf Stream
Retreat of glaciers: impacts on localised flooding and
water resources
Water cycle
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Increased precipitation over land by 5-10% over 20th
century (but decreased over some areas:
Mediterranean, north/west Africa)
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Observed increase in heavy precipitation events –
particularly mid and high northern latitudes
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Droughts – increase in frequency and intensity in
some regions
Extreme weather events
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Storms, floods, droughts and heat
waves to become more frequent, more
severe, more costly
Human health
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Increase of fatalities from
extreme weather events
(heatwaves, floods)
Photo Source: www.afpap.org/
Changes in the spread of
vector-borne diseases, food
and water-borne pathogens
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Photo Source: Sinclair Stammers, World Health Organization, Special Programme
for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases
Biodiversity
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Disruption of ecosystems from fires, droughts, pest infestation,
invasion of species could lead to the extinction of some 25 % of
mammal species and 12 % of birds
Photo Source: www.wwf.org.uk
The Need for Adaptation in Europe
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Temperature increase of 2ºC to 6.3ºC in Europe
(1990-2100)
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Variations in precipitation : wetter northern Europe /
drier in the south
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Annual costs from flooding in Europe could increase
to 100-120 billion € by 2080 (from Association of British Insurers)
European Climate Change Programme

Set up in June 2000 to identify measures enabling
EU to meet Kyoto targets

42 innovative measures to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions identified and implemented (inc. ETS)
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Feb 2005 Communication: Winning the Battle
against Climate Change, outlining key elements for
the EU's post-2012 strategy – reducing Europe’s
vulnerability to the impacts of climate change
ECCP II
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Launched on 24/10/2005 in Brussels
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Review progress made so far
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Consider future mitigation measures (CO2 and cars,
aviation, carbon capture and storage)
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Adapt to climate change
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Creation of 5 distinct working groups, including
Impacts and Adaptation
Workgroup Objectives
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Improve Europe's resilience to Climate Change
Impacts
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Integration of adaptation into European Climate
Change Policy
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Identify good practice in development of adaptation
policy and foster learning
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Define EU role in adaptation policies
Adaptation challenges
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Uncertainty: Long time-frames, Different levels of
certainty (projections, risks extremes, major events)
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Irreversible losses such as ecosystems
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Conciling policy action and legislation to be carried
out at regional / local level by public / private sector
and to be “stakeholder-led”, rather than enforced
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Allocating costs: Who should pay?
Adaptation Challenges (cont.)
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Cost-effectiveness: Climate proofing all human
activities would be extremely expensive
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Avoiding Mal-adaptation: Inefficient use of resources
compared to other options, adaptation that is
ineffective (scenarios that not appear) or displacing
vulnerability from one sector to another
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Economic, ethical and political considerations: longterm impacts vs costs of adaptation options now,
equity and distributional benefits (protection of those
less able to adapt vs those with capital / resources)
Successful adaptation :
a 3-tiered concept
Prepare to adapt by
building capacity
• Research
• Awareness
• Policies
• Monitoring
Alter existing plans to
manage climate risks and
take advantage of new
opportunities
• Urgent and high
priority
• Win-win, Low cost
• Existing frameworks
• Disaster responses
Implement adaptation
actions
• Cost-effective/Cost
benefit analysis
• Additional criteriaexisting frameworks
• Modify infrastructure
• Alter processes
Workgroup Work Programme
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Stakeholder engagement exercise - 10 sectoral
meetings: (April – June 2006)
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Impacts on water cycle and water resources management
Marine resources and coastal zones and tourism
Human health
Agriculture and Forestry
Biodiversity
Workgroup Work Programme
(cont.)
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10 sectoral meetings:
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Regional planning, Industrial and public infrastructure,
Structural funds
Urban planning and construction
Development cooperation
Role of insurance industry
Building national strategies for adaptation (country reports)
One wrap-up session to adopt individual status reports
(September 2006)
Research Activities
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Identify cost-effective adaptation strategies through a
call for proposals for the (6th and 7th Framework
Programme, RTD)
Organisation of 3 two-day workshops (December
2006)
How will climate change affect EU citizens?
Scenarios of climate change at regional and subregional level in the EU
 How to improve the resilience of European society
and economy? From climate modelling to building
cost effective adaptation strategies
 Economic assessment of adaptation strategies
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Output
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Production of status reports for each of the 10
thematic meetings
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European Commission Conference on Adaptation
(November 2006)
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Publication of a Green Paper on Adaptation
(November 2006) for consultation
...Thank you for your Attention