Transcript Global Changes and Industrial Ecology Pedro J.J. Alvarez, Ph.D., P.E., DEE Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering.

Global Changes and
Industrial Ecology
Pedro J.J. Alvarez, Ph.D., P.E., DEE
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Anthropogenic Changes
• We have transformed or degraded 39-50% of the land
surface (agriculture, urbanization).
• Since 1850, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has
increased by 40% (hydrocarbon combustion, deforestation)
• We use 50% of readily available fresh water in the planet
• More than 20% of bird species became extinct in the
last 200 years
• 22% of fishery resources have been depleted, and
are in danger
44%
Major Environmental Problems
México, D.F.
Acid Rain
lakes (fish)
soil (agriculture)
art
Mutant Frogs (Minnesota)
What Happens to
Humans?
• 95% of pesticides could
cause cancer!!!
• Babies and young
children may have poor
brain development
Selected Emerging Pollutant Classes
Endocrine disruptors
Pharmaceuticals & cosmetics that bioaccumulate and affect
reproduction (PFOs, synthetic musk fragrances, PBDEs)
Waste Nanomaterials
Growing industry with materials that bioaccumulate or cotransport pollutants (e.g., C-nanotubes, bucky balls)
Biological agents
Calcivirus, prions, antibiotic resistance genes, transgenics
Global Problems
The Atmosphere
• Relatively small
compartment
(0.3% of the ocean's mass)
• Easy to contaminate
(little dilution)
• Greenhouse gases
CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O
affect global climate
100 km
CO2 Emissions
Released
(109 ton/year)
Combustion (HCs) 6.0
Removed
(109 ton/year)
1.2
Bio-uptake
1.2
(plants)
Uptake by oceans 2.5
Sum: 7.2
Sum: 3.7
Deforestation
Accumulation: 3.5
x 109 ton/year
Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming
CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs
Trap IR radiation
Irradiate heat
Global Warming:
Flooding
(MSL rises 4 mm/ year,
2100: 15-95 mm/ year)
Malaria,
schistosomiasis,
cholera
Saline Intrusion
New Deserts?
Disasters (hurricanes)
Degree Celsius
Average temperature increased by 0.6 C
(the 90’s was the warmest decade of the century)
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Precautionary Principle
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There is considerable uncertainty regarding anthropogenic
effects on global climate, but….
“When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the
environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if
some cause-and-effect relations are not fully established
scientifically”.
1998 Wingspread Statement
•
“If we live as if it matters and it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter.
If we live as if it doesn’t matter, and it matters, then it matters”.
Biodiversity is in Danger
Perhaps 10,000 species per year
are lost out of 4-14 million total
(1.7 million known species)
“To worry about the environment and
biodiversity, you must have at least one
full meal per day”
Richard Leaky, Director, Kenya Wildlife Service
Environmental problems Have two roots
1. Demographic explosion….
This is mainly a problem of underdeveloped countries
The second root of environmental problems:
2. Energy use and consumerism, developed countries
(exacerbated by the globalization of the economy)
Per capita CO2 Emissions
(Energy use - hydrocarbons, coal)
Global Poverty = most serious environmental problem
(1.3 x109 lack potable water, 2.3 x109 lack sanitary facilities, 13 million children/yr die of hunger, diarrhea)
UN Stats: The Impoverished World
– 50% live on less than $2/day;
have no electricity; they have
never made or received a
phone call
– 38% lack sanitary facilities
and conveyance of sewage
– 21% lack safe drinking water
– 22% are illiterate
(15% women, 6% men)
– Malaria, HIV/AIDS, dengue,
diarrhea/dysentery kill millions
each year
UN Stats: The Rich World
– 20% generate and enjoy 86% of the
wealth
– 5% (U.S./Canada) consume…
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25-30% of its nonrenewable Resources
Emit 25% of GHG
Use 30% of its energy
$10 Trillion GDP
– Only 6% own a computer
– Only 2% have access to the Internet
Some environmental
problems improve with
development as Income per
capita increases
Industrial Ecology
• It is a multidisciplinary framework to design and operate industries as if
they were living entities interacting with ecosystems.
• Seeks to attain a balance between economic gains and ecological and
global interests.
• It is the science behind sustainable development.
Natural Ecology
Heat
Detritus
Death
Heat
Homo
sapiens
Carnivores
Herbivores
Primary Produces
Respiration
& Excretion
Waste
(CO2, other)
Solar
Energy
Primary
Production
Nutrients
Mineralization
Industrial Ecology
CH4, CO2
Landfill
Waste
Heat
Heat
Products
Intermediates
Waste
Materials
Energy
+ Work
Heat
Raw
Materials
Incineration
Recycle
Reuse
Remanufacture
Conventional Design
Energy
Raw
Materials
Manufacture
Waste
Energy
Product
Use
Waste
Discard in
Landfill
Green Design
Raw
Materials
Energy
Efficiency
Energy
Efficiency
Manufacture
Product
Use
Recycle
Reuse
Remanufacture, Recycle
Waste minimization
Safe disposal
Innocuous end products
Green Options for Existing Processes
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Eliminate or replace product (life cycle assessment)
Eliminate or minimize hazardous substance use (mass balance)
Minimize energy use (audits)
Dematerialization (Minimize weight and/or volume, Combine
various functions into one product, Make fewer different styles,
Minimize/take back packaging, Moore’s Law: the speed of a chip
doubles every 2 years)
Increase efficiency and economic life
Redesign for reuse, remanufacture, or easy repair
Reflect environmental cost in the price of the product
Industry (not government) must be the agent of change
Packaging
take-back
Manufacture
Transport
Distribution,
Sell
Remanufacture
Recycle
Use by
Consumer
Recycle
Environmental Impact?
Water, Air, Soil
Human and Ecological
Minimize
Waste
Marketing
Final
Disposal to
the Environment
Product
Development
New Product Idea
Reuse
Annual Cost of Pollution Control in the USA
Value of Stocks
(1/1/94 - 12/2/99)
390%
Green Companies
+228%
340%
290%
240%
190%
Other Companies
+120%
140%
90%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Sustainable Development
“Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the
ability of future generations to meet their own needs”
Gro Brundtland, Prime Minister of Norway
When considering a new project,
– Is it reversible?
– Is it persistent?
– How much uncertainty?
(generational justice)
– Is it socially just?
Ideal
Project
Global sustainability needs international collaboration
to meet complementary needs of the 1st and 3rd worlds
– Developing countries have natural resources (land, water,
energy, minerals, genetic pool) and work force.
– Developed countries have the capital and technology needed to
exploit these resources sustainably (globalización?)
Old and New Paradigms
Elkington (1997) – Cannibals with Forks
Old – Global Consumer
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Me
More
Materialism
Quantity
Greed
Short-term
Rights
New – World Citizen
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We
Enough
Holism
Quality
Need
Long-Term
Responsibilities
“The significant problems we
face cannot be solved at the
same level of thinking we were at
when they were created”
Never doubt that a small group
of thoughtful, committed citizens
can change the world; indeed,
it is the only thing that ever has.
Margaret Mead
Questions?
Conclusions
• Global change and global warming are already occurring
• The world will be warmer in the 21st century with fewer
species
• But the amount of change depends on our actions now and in
the next decades to protect opportunities for future generations
• Sustainable development seeks new solutions via international
cooperation, renewable resources, and market mechanisms
• A good environment and a good economy can go hand-in-hand
• But global poverty is still the largest “environmental” problem,
and it demands our urgent attention
Role for AEESP in Sustainability
• Revise/revamp our curricula to add more sustainability science
and engineering (mostly we are already equipped in the
fundamentals, but we need greater appreciation for a systems
viewpoint, life cycle engineering, social science, culture,
partnerships, and interdisciplinary teams)
• Show Leadership -- raise the level of awareness among our
profession and constituencies; show that we are concerned and can
contribute (World Summit on Sustainable Development)
• Water, air, and wastewater engineering are critical infrastructure
needs of the developing world with which we can help (doing good
and doing well)
Sustainable Economics
Old View:
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$ Bottom Line
$ Capital
$ Assets
Downsizing
Exclusive
Shareholders
Growth
Deregulation
New View:
– Triple Bottom Line
– Social and Natural Capital
– Intellectual& Borrow
Assets
– Innovation
– Inclusive
– Stakeholders
– Sustainability
– Reregulation
Product Life Cycle Analysis
Mass Balances, Risk Assessment
Energy Audits
Pollution Prevention
Program
Reduce Contamination
Sources
Change Product
or Packaging
Change
Operations
Control
Sources
Substitute
Materials
Recycle
Reuse
Sell
Change
Process
Technology
Remanufacture
Recovery
Down-cycle
News that give hope
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Progress in public health and reduction in infant mortality
More efficient use of energy
Increase in global per capita income
Global democratization and education
Global treaties (Montreal, Rio, Kyoto)
Market forces (prices reflecting ecological truth; CO2 emission
credits and trading)
Multinational companies becoming greener
Protection and de-listing of endangered species
Rapid development
Little pollution control
wastewater treatment
Air pollution control
Total
Emissions
Per Year
Solid & hazardous wastes
Industrial
Ecology
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Per capita CO2 Emissions
(Energy use - hydrocarbons, coal)
Toxic Release Inventory
• Who wants to be first
on the list of polluters?
• Shame is a powerful
incentive to reduce
emissions
Sustainable Development Corollaries
 Do not exploit renewable resources faster than they can
be regenerated (wood)
 Do not use non-renewable resources faster than we can
find alternative replacements (petroleum)
 When unavoidable to discard wastes to the environment,
do not pollute faster than the ecosystem can assimilate.
Green Engineering ≠ Sustainability
Economy
Culture
Society
Social and
generational justice
Productivity
Technological growth
Profit & employment
Stakeholder
participation
Quality of life
Informed citizenry
Equity
Health
Wastes
Water usage
Energy use
Ecosystem health
Materials use
Pollution Control
Biodiversity
Natural resources protection
and restoration
Environment
Globalization
• Globalization, in theory, eliminates trade
barriers and tariffs, which lowers costs
and increases profits. This brings
prosperity, choice, and democracy. But..
• Although life expectancy and mean
income have improved, many people
have been left behind in the 3rd world
• Globalization has distorted the allocation
of resources in favor of private goods at
the expense of public goods
• Global financial markets are prone to
crisis which hurts poor people and poor
countries more than rich ones