Forests for Life Oregon Forests in a Global Context and Some Strategies for Sustainability Hal Salwasser Oregon State University, College of Forestry.
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Transcript Forests for Life Oregon Forests in a Global Context and Some Strategies for Sustainability Hal Salwasser Oregon State University, College of Forestry.
Forests for Life
Oregon Forests in a Global Context and
Some Strategies for Sustainability
Hal Salwasser
Oregon State University, College of Forestry
What We’ll Cover
A vision for forests
Forest values
American forests in a global context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
A Vision for Forests
Sustain and enrich human well being through
diverse values, uses, products and services;
Managed and conserved to meet changing
needs based on local knowledge plus everimproving science and technologies;
Serve current and future generations in
sustaining our communities and rich cultural
heritage.
Forests that …
Deliver high quality water
Sustainably meet domestic needs for forest-based
renewable resources
Reward owners/stewards with multiple benefits
Perpetuate biological and cultural diversity
Ameliorate impacts of human activities
Grow in extent, productivity, resilience
Are managed for distinct local capabilities & values
Restore human spirit and stewardship ethic
Bring people together for common purpose
Lands of Many Values
A vision for forests
Forest values
American forests in a global context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
Forests are Sources of Life
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Clean water and air
Abundant fish and wildlife
Cultural heritage
Climate and carbon
Recreation and aesthetics
Wood and fiber
Non-wood forest products
Jobs and personal identity
Wealth and revenues
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Clean water,
clear air …
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Fish, wildlife
and habitats …
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Sacred tree
Cultural
heritage …
Family forest
owner
Agroforestry
Forest retreat
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Recreation …
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Scenic
beauty …
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Forests store ~ 45% of the carbon
In terrestrial ecosystems,
CO2 + H2O + Sunlight = O2 + wood
Climate,
carbon, and
oxygen …
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Wood
products …
Rayon shirt
Paper
Wood furniture
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Bull elk
Salal
Non-wood
products…
Ramps
Morels
Ginseng
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Artist in
woods
Hunter
Mushroom
picker
Fishing
guide on
river
Jobs and
personal
identity…
Forests Sustain Quality of Life
Wealth and
revenues to
support
schools and
public services
Global Forest Context
A vision for forests
Forest values
American forests in a global context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
Global Forces = Change
Population growth: 6.3 Bil. in 2003 to ~ 8 Bil. in 2050
Technology: steady advances + breakthroughs
Political instability: local to global, ballot measures to wars
Trade: barriers/subsidies, free vs fair
Industry restructuring: global integration, dynamics in
timberland ownership, global capital
Rich-poor gap: growing
Raising of “green” consciousness: more than air/water
Consumption growth: space, water, fossil fuels, food, wood,
minerals
Climate change: yes but variable, uncertain regional effects
Non-native invasive species + explosive natives
Pervasive Change
Need for prudent risk taking,
continual learning and adaptation
Global Forest Trends
Forest area: ~ 9.6 Billion ac; 50-66% loss since 1600 ce
Forest loss: ~ 23 Million ac/yr in 1990s
Population + Economic Growth = Forest Loss
But not always: - 30 mil ac/yr in tropics, + 7 mil ac/yr in non-tropics
Demands for forest benefits ever growing
Water quality, quantity: biggest future forest issue
Wood use: range = flat near term to < 0.5%/yr long term
Biodiversity conservation: yes but public still bewildered after 20 years
Carbon storage: how much, trees + products, market uncertainty
Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses: highly variable by ownership
Some Global Leaders
22
Forest Area: Russia
Wood Volume: Russia
23
Wood Biomass: Brazil
27
24
Plantation Forests: China
Solid Wood Produced: US
22
Solid Wood Used: US
30
Solid Wood Imports: US
30
Solid Wood Exports: Canada
32
0
UN FAO 2005: 2000, 2002 data
5
10
15
20
25
Percent of World Share
30
35
Global Plantation Forests
EU
4.7
Brazil + Chile + NZ + SA + Australia
5.6
24
Russia + US + Japan
42
India + China
0
UN FAO 2005: 2000 data
10
20
30
40
Percent of World Share
50
Global & U.S. Wood Use
Ind. wood use rose 40% since 1960: ~ 1.6 BM3 but flat over last 20
Fuel wood use > industrial wood use: ~ 1.8 BM3 and growing
Ind. wood use could increase < 33% by 2050: from 1.6 - 2.1 BM3
~ 75% of global wood and fiber will come from planted forests by
mid century or earlier (Sedjo and others)
~ 31% of global solid wood consumption crosses an international
boundary from tree to product; most likely to increase
US imports 31% of solid wood products consumed; exports
associated jobs & impacts (81% growth since 1991)
US uses 30% of world’s solid wood products; largest per capita
US forest and wood choices drive global wood market
UN FAO 2005: 2002 data + Perez-Garcia on future demand
US in Global Context
4.7
People
Forest Land
5.8
Wood Volume in Forests
8
Plantion Forests
8.6
Reserve Forest
9
22
Solid Wood Produced
Solid Wood Used
30
Solid Wood Imported
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percent of World Share (UN FAO 2005: 2000, 2003 data)
Oregon in US Context
People
1.2
Land
2.6
Forest Land
3.7
Reserve Forest
11.4
Timberland
4.6
Softwood Growing Stock*
16
% US Softwood Harvest
8.3
0
*Timberland Only
5
10
15
20
Percent of National Share (ODF, USFS data 1999, 2002)
The Forest Cluster*
People
Place
Products
Forests
Businesses
Policies
Infrastructure/
Institutions
* A cluster is all the entities engaged in or affiliated with a core business, in this
case forests and forest products broadly defined
Economic Impact for Oregon
Forest cluster (SIC data for 2000)*
$12.6 billion total industrial output (TIO); 6.3% of State TIO all
sectors
85,600 direct jobs; 4% of State jobs all sectors
$3.5 billion wages; ave wage = $40,600; State ave wage =
$34,840
* Hovee 2004: includes primary and secondary products, forestry services
More than 25% of traded sector economy in 22/36 OR counties
Historical Context
Forest cluster’s economic role has changed
Forest products major factors in Oregon economy and
community life from late 1800s to early 1980s
Employment in forest cluster fell during 1980s to early
1990s, stable since mid 1990s
Recession early 80s, retooling 80s-90s, supply loss early 90s
Economic challenges most severe in rural communities
Land available for harvest reduced dramatically 1990s
Federal policies (environment > economy), values conflicts
Timber harvest on private lands ~ stable since 1990
Most forest cluster jobs now derive from private lands
Historical Context …
Public perceptions on economic and community
roles of forest cluster changing
1980s-1990s: conflict over forests, environmental
concerns produced:
Old-growth protection in federal forests (5.3 million ac)
Economic hardship for rural communities, economies
Increased regulatory and legal costs for wood producers
Gridlock and excessive costs on federal forestlands
False perceptions of forest resources in Oregon’s future
2004: Oregonians want balance, end to conflict
strategy, forests managed for economic, social, and
environmental benefits, i.e., sustainability’s “triple
bottom line”
Building a Future from Past
Success
Oregon has a solid foundation for natural
resource sustainability
Land-use dedications: federal and state forests, parks,
wildlife refuges; nature reserves; wood production
Diverse ownerships = diverse outcomes
State land-use laws limit forest, ag-land loss
State & federal forest, water, air, wildlife protection laws
State forestry strategic plan (FPFO)
Building from Success …
World-class forestry education, research and extension
Private-public partnerships (Oregon Plan)
Public forestry education programs (OFRI)
Growing sustainability ethic, incentives
Access to major markets – CA, US SW
Returns on Investments
Highest quality water in Oregon from forestlands
Fish habitat restoration well underway
Successful reforestation following harvest
Wood growth exceeds harvest
Sustainable contributions to Oregon’s economic,
social and environmental goals
Public support for “balanced” management
But We Can’t Sit Still!
Action is needed to sustain forest social,
environmental, and economic benefits
Continue protecting private forestland from conversion
Forest is best land use for water, air, fish, wildlife, CO2
Encourage use of environmentally superior, renewables
Wood grown here to some of world’s highest standards
Reduce threats posed by imported raw wood
Build on effective public-private partnerships, e.g.,
Oregon Plan for Salmon and Watershed
Restore health and prudent management to federal
forestlands
Action is Needed …
35% of Oregon’s federal forests are at high risk of
drought stress, disease, fire; Federal forest
plans not working for all goals, due for
revisions
Federal forest management costs are very high for the
public benefits delivered
Private forests need science-based protection rules
and incentives, not precautionary overkill
State forests offer options to federal & private plans,
warrant testing
Sustainability
A vision for forests
Forest values
American forests in a global context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
Sustainability
Progressive improvement in environmental,
economic and cultural conditions
Equity across societal sectors and
generations
Engagement of people in social choices
that affect them
Adaptability to pervasive change
Sustainable Forestry
The suite of policies, plans and practices
that seek to protect, produce, and
perpetuate forest ecosystems for the
values, uses, products, and services
desired by communities and landowners
for this and future generations
NCSSF 2005
Sustainability
Not possible without taking risks and
continually adapting to change,
making things better
Its not about standing still!
Fitting Forest to Purpose
A vision for forests
Forest values
American forests in a global context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
Breadth of Sustainable
Forest Management
Varies by forest type, ownership,
primary purpose
Forest purposes:
Wood and fiber production
Multiple resource values/uses
Reserves, nature preservation
Urban and community forests
Wood Production Forests
Most of world’s future wood will
come from planted forests:
~ 33% now, ~ 75% by 2050
~ 10% or less of global forest area
Primary purposes:
Grow trees for wood, fiber
Increase forest value to owner
Management challenges:
Thrive in global markets
Increase wood yield: > 2x over natural
Improve environmental outcomes
Improve wood quality, consistency
Produce high return on investment
Maintain social license to operate
Who Owns Prod. Forest?
Million Acres by Owner
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Site Class in
Ft3/Ac/Yr
1 = >120
2 = 85-120
3 = 50-85
4 = 20-50
5 = 0-20
National
Forest
Other
Public
Forest
Industry
Source: Powell et al. (1993) Tables 5 and 6
Family
Forests
Wood from Oregon Forests
Timber harvest: ~ 4.4 BBF in 2004
~ 7% of US softwood harvest
Superior quality wood due to species, growing
conditions, milling and manufacturing processes
Harvest potentials
1977-1989: 5.6 – 8.6 BBF/yr
1997 OSU study long term sustainable: 7.5 BBF/yr
1998 – 2002 (after NWFP + other restrictions): 3.4 – 4.1 BBF/yr
If total ban on federal harvest: 3.5 - 4 BBF/yr
If HFRA + federal second growth available: > 5 BBF
Oregon 2004 Harvest
State
7%
BLM Native American
2%
2%
Other Public
1%
National Forest
8%
Other Private
13%
4.45 BBF
Forest Industry
67%
Why PNW for Wood?
Cubic Meters/Ha/Year Growth
US South intensive pine
Western PNW intensive D-fir
Brazil eucalyptus
New Zealand radiata
Boreal countries managed
World ave. natural
0
Data accurate only in relative sense
10
20
30
40
50
60
Multi-resource Forests
Most of the world’s accessible forests
have multiple resource purposes
~ 40% of global forest area eventually
Primary purposes:
Meet diverse landowner objectives
Increase forest value to owner(s)
Challenges:
If US federal, clarify purpose and direction
Deliver multi-resource/value outcomes at
acceptable costs
Differentiate products in markets
Finance non-market benefits
Finance management of federal lands
Reserve Forests
Parks, wilderness, natural areas:
~ 12% worldwide in 2000
~ 50% of global forest area eventually
Primary purposes:
Sustain at-risk species, natural
processes, “wild” ecosystems
Recreation, cultural uses
Management challenges:
Minimize human use impacts
Restore, promote wildness, naturalness
Ameliorate effects of invasive species,
air pollution, explosive natives
Achieve goals for least costs
Finance management
Urban, Community
Forests
Where 80% of the people live
Primary purposes:
Attractive communities, neighborhoods
Conserve resources: water, energy
Increase property values
Backyard wildlife habitats
Management challenges:
Safety, infrastructure impacts
Minimize sprawl
Minimize invasive species escapes
Reserve Forests: Mostly
federal, some state, tribal,
private
Wood Production
Forests: Mostly
industry, family,
some state, tribal
Forest
Sustainability
Environmental Benefits
Urban, Community
Forests: Forests where
people live
Multi-resource
Forests: Mostly state,
tribal, some family,
some federal
Oregon’s Balance
Wood
Production
36%
Reserve
31%
Multi-use
33%
Ownership Matters
Multi-resource
Wood Production
Reserve
Industry, TIMO
*
*
Private, large
Family, ENGO
Tribes
State
Federal
*
Streamside zones, leave trees, habitats as mini or micro reserves
Oregon Forest Owners
Family
16%
Federal
57%
Industry
21%
Other Public
6%
Leading the Way
A vision for forests
Forest values
American forests in a global context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
Challenges
1.
Keep forest lands in forest uses for forest values
Sustain US forests in face of global forces, urban sprawl
2.
Meet people’s forest resource needs efficiently
3.
Improve production and conservation efficiency
4.
Restore and sustain health of at-risk forests
5.
Create new knowledge and technologies:
6.
Sciences and products for progressive sustainability
Products and practices innovations
Enhance lifelong learning and extended education
AND
Address Demand -Consumption Ethic
Intelligent consumption and production of
renewable natural resources is key to sustaining
quality of life;
Overuse, non-renewable substitutes, transfer effects
degrade ecosystems somewhere;
Prudent choices consider full impacts, the future,
and the entire life cycle of resources –
Domestic Renewables Win!
Restoration Challenge
Forest health
Stresses
Choices
Strategies
Essentials for success
Science
Decision tree
Healthy Forest?
Functions as intended according to landowner goals, state
federal, and/or tribal laws and policies
Delivers high quality water in quantities and seasons that
sustain ecosystems and people
Sustains native fish and wildlife compatible with primary
purpose(s)
Resilient to stresses, e.g., drought, insects, diseases,
storms, fires, invasive species, explosive natives
Has community support to produce the array of values, uses,
products and services desired by owners
Threats to Forest Health
Uncharacteristic
fire
Invasive species
and explosive
natives
Climate change
and drought
Residential
encroachment
Magnitude of Problem
67 M ac (52%) western
timberland in FRCC2
and FRCC3
97 M ac (75%) western
timberland warrant
treatment
62% of treatable volume
on NFS
86% of trees to remove l.t.
10” dbh
72% of volume in trees
g.t. 10” dbh
1999 western industry used
32 M bdt for all products
30 year plan for treatment
yields range from 8 to 51
M bdt/yr
Potentially large impacts for
wood prices, mill/cogen
capacity
Treatment costs w/o
products $35-$1,000/ac
1.4% of fires g.t. 300 ac,
94% of suppression
costs, some g.t. $500/ac
Now treating ~ 4 mil ac/yr
Western Forest Stats
More wood added than removed every year
Mortality
0.07
Removals
0.09
Growth
0.2
Inventory
10.3
0
2
4
6
8
Billion Cubic Meters (BCM)
USFS 1996 FIA data
10
12
Stresses, Some are Normal
Fires, disease, storms, landslides are natural processes;
vital to renewal of productivity, resilience
But some watershed conditions exceed range of natural
processes; impede water quality or create
unacceptable vulnerability to extreme stresses
Under what conditions should we intervene to “solve”
stress problems, alter ecosystem conditions or
trajectory of recovery?
What are the Options?
Let nature take its course
Intervene to reduce or eliminate stresses
Stop pollution, stop practices that impede health, manage pests
Intervene to restore resilience before extreme stress
Be bold enough, soon enough to make a difference – reduce stocking
Intervene after events to restore health or influence resilience
to stress and the trajectory and rate of ecosystem
recovery
Act quickly and boldly to remove threats to desired future conditions,
contain costs, influence future species, stocking, competing
vegetation
Integrated Strategy
Assess need for intervention and priorities at site, watershed
and landscape scales – collaborative, community
engagement if public lands involved
Target actions/treatments strategically for highest success,
lowest failure; highest benefits @ lowest costs
Design actions for learning – adaptive management
Link restoration actions to complementary goals:
Water, fish, wildlife, wood yield, aesthetics, recreation, carbon
Energy, transportation, jobs, wood-based products
Monitor and research to reduce costs, increase benefits
Communicate, learn, adapt – close the loop on continual
learning
What is Needed for Success?
Ready access to contemporary science, relevant information,
tools
Ability to assess and act strategically at landscape/watershed
scale
Financial resources, social capital for intervention
Ability to accomplish multiple objectives and create wealth from
treatments to cover some costs of restoring health, resilience
Integration of science with management and local knowledge for
place-based problem solving, adaptive learning
Innovation in work processes and new products
Bias for barrier-busting boldness – risks and costs increase with
delay; timidity could = failure on goals
Does Science Have All
the Answers?
No way!
Can We Get There
Without Science?
No way!
A Strategic Decision Tree
Is policy/plan clear on direction for area in question?
If no, messy gridlock; clarify policy/plan
Will nature deliver what policy/plan calls for?
If yes, work is through
When restoration interventions are needed/warranted
What kind?
Where?
How frequent is the need?
How to pay for restoration work?
Public $$ – but state and federal discretionary $$ declining
Revenues generated from by-products of restoration work
Savings from reduced emergency spending
Carbon credits, biomass energy, biofuels
Other: conservation incentives, recreation?
The Case for Management
Wood Production Forests
Sustain progressive productivity and increase value as forests
Compete in global markets
Excellence in commodity woods, customer service
Value-added, niche differentiated wood and wood-based products
Sustain resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire
Multi-resource Forests
Sustain joint resource production
Diversify revenues to finance management: wood + recreation +
ecosystem services
Restore diversity, resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire
Reserve Forests
Restore wildness and natural processes
Contain human impacts
University Roles …
Educate a highly skilled, diverse forest/mill workforce and
future forest scientists and teachers
Create a stronger science base for all forest management
systems; improve regulatory efficiency
Innovations for improved market and environmental
performance of all US forests and forest products
Innovations to increase productivity and sustainability of
US forest resources and forest products
Educate a more knowledgeable, responsible citizenry
Promote prudent policies, empowered communities
Advocate for diverse, productive, resilient forests and
associated economies and human communities
Future Forests?
Its up to our generation to choose
and act if we want to deliver
healthy, productive, wealthy, and resilient
forests to our children and grandchildren
U.S. Forest Owners
National Forest
20%
Family
48%
Other Public
23%
Industry
9%