Transcript United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration Populations: Importance, Definitions, and Categories Jason Schachter United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNECE/Eurostat Work Session.

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
Measuring Hard-to-Count Migration
Populations: Importance,
Definitions, and Categories
Jason Schachter
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics
Geneva, Switzerland, October 17-19
Goals of Project

Suitland Working Group Task Force
•
Relevance of hard-to-count migrants in
different countries
• Compare definitions of hard-to-count
migrants at the national and international
level
• Factors that influence the data collection of
hard-to-count migrant populations
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 2
In Relation to Household Surveys
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To what extent do countries use surveys
to measure hard-to-count migrants.
How can household surveys be used to
measure these populations
•
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Sampling rare and elusive populations
What survey questions are needed to
identify hard-to-count migrants
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 3
Who are Hard-to-Count Migrants?
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Short-term migrants
Circular migrants
Irregular migrants
Transit migrants
Trafficked person
Refugees
Asylum seekers
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 4
UNECE Questionnaire on
International Migration Statistics
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Questions from Section 2:
“Practices/Methodologies used to estimate
“difficult to measure”international migrant
groups”
•
Conducted in 2008
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UNECE and other countries
– 49 responses
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 5
Questions on…
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Relevance attributed to each group
If measurement is an issue (i.e. data are not
available or are not sufficiently accurate)
If NSO is responsible for producing
counts/estimates on these populations and
methodology used
Data source and definition used to identify group
Information on if other government agency/
institutions provide estimates
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 6
Short-Term Migrants
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“A person who moves to a country other than that of
his or her usual residence for a period of at least 3
months but less than a year (12 months), except in
cases where the movement to that country is for
purpose of recreation, holiday, visits to friends or
relatives, business, medical treatment or religious
pilgrimage. For purposes of international migration
statistics, the country of usual residence of short-term
migrants is considered to be the country of destination
during the period they spend in it.” (UN 1998)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 7
Questionnaire Results
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Most frequently collected
Fair amount of deviation from the international
definition
In the few cases minimum length of stay (in and/or
out of the country) was mentioned, large amount of
variation (e.g. two weeks to six months).
Better adherence to maximum duration of stay (12
months)
Some consider intended residence while others use
actual residence
Purpose of movement rarely included
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 8
Circular Migrants

“Circular Migration is the fluid movement
of people between countries, including
temporary or more permanent movement
which, when it occurs voluntarily and is
linked to the labour needs of countries of
origin and destination, can be beneficial
to all involved.” (GFMD 2007)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 9
Questionnaire Results
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No NSO measured or provided a definition used to
identify circular migrants (circa 2008)
By its nature, circular migration is difficult to measure
as short-term residence may be subject to little or no
administrative recording, particularly if permission to
reside has already been granted in the context of a
previous stay.
Operationalization:
• Duration of stay in destination country
• Frequency of repeated movements
• Purpose of migration
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 10
Irregular/Undocumented
Migrants
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“Persons in a state other than their own
who have not fully satisfied the
conditions and requirements set forth by
that State to enter, stay, or work in that
State's territory.” (ILO 1997)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 11
Questionnaire Results
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Only four countries provided an operational
definition
Romania EC Regulation no. 862/2007, “third-country
nationals refused entry to the Member State’s
territory at the external border” and “third-country
nationals found to be illegally present in the Member
State’s territory under national laws relating to
immigration.”
Other definitions similar to the international
standards
• Israel: employment a necessary condition for
irregular status.
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 12
Transit Migrants
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“A person who migrates in one country
with the intention of seeking the
possibility there to emigrate to another
country as the country of final
destination.” (UNECE 1993)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 13
Questionnaire Results
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No countries provided a definition or attempt to
measure
Operationalization:
•
•
repetition of international migration
intention to move onwards
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does not necessarily correspond to an actual move
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 14
Trafficked persons
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“The recruitment, transportation, transfer,
harbouring or receipt of persons, by the
means of threat or use of force or other
forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud,
of deception, of the abuse of power or of
a position of vulnerability or of the giving
or receiving of payments or benefits to
achieve the consent of a person having
control over another person, for the
purpose of exploitation.” (UN 2000)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 15
Smuggling
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“The procurement, in order to obtain,
directly or indirectly, a financial or other
material benefit, of the illegal entry of a
person into a state of which he/she is not
a national or a permanent resident.
Illegal entry means the crossing of
borders without complying with the
necessary requirements for legal entry
into the receiving State.” (UN 2000)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 16
Questionnaire Results
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Trafficking is restricted to situations in which people
are deceived, threatened, or coerced in situations of
exploitation
Smuggling implies a migrant voluntarily uses services
to circumvent immigration restrictions (not necessarily
a victim of deception or exploitation)
Three countries indicated a definition for trafficked
migrants
•
Romania refers to EC Regulation No. 862/2007
• Kyrgyzstan reported a definition close to the international standards
• Slovakia counts both foreigners and nationals who declare
themselves victims of trafficking, either inside the country or abroad
(for nationals)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 17
Asylum seekers
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“Persons who file an application for
asylum in a country other than their own.
They remain in the status of asylumseeker until their application is
considered and adjudicated.” (UN 1998)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 18
Questionnaire Results
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Eleven countries provided definitions
In most cases, as per the international definition,
asylum seekers are foreigners who have applied for
refugee status and are awaiting a response
Four countries (Canada, Russia, Slovenia, and the
United Kingdom) include persons who do not fulfil the
requirements of the Geneva Convention, but for whom
an expulsion would constitute a serious threat to life or
personal safety and/or freedom
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 19
Refugees
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“A person who owing to a well-founded fear of being
persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality,
membership of a particular social group or political
opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is
unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail
himself of the protection of that country; or who, not
having a nationality and being outside the country of
his former habitual residence as a result of such
events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to
return to it” (UNHCR, 1967).
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 20
Questionnaire Results
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Almost all countries reported a definition in-line
with UNHCR, though some utilize the broader
interpretation to include asylum applicants
under international protection.
Croatia counts refugees as part of its usual
resident population
Palestinian Authority focuses on national
refugees living abroad
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 21
Data Sources
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Censuses and population registers, visa and border
control data, as well as some household and
passenger surveys
Short-term migrants & refugees most frequent
Circular and transit migrants least frequent (almost no
cases of either)
Short-term migrants: largest proportion (40%) came
from population or administrative registers, while other
sources included censuses, border data, visa
information, and surveys
Irregular migrants and/or trafficked persons: border
control information, police reports, and NGOs
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 22
Table 1: Number of countries and sources used to provide counts or estimates of hard-to-count migrant groups
Note: Countries could provide more than one source per migrant group
Source
Migrant Category
Administrative
Asylum department
Asylum register
Border card
Border police
Census
Emigration survey
Federal report
Foreigners’ register
Home office
Immigration service
International passenger
survey
Labour force survey
Migrants’ Register
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Ministry of Interior
Non-governmental agencies
Police headquarters
Population register
Refugee office
Register
Statistical service
Total
November 6, 2015
Shortterm
2
2
1
3
1
3
Refugees
1
1
Asylum
2
1
3
Irregular
Trafficked
Circular
Transit
1
4
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
4
1
1
23
4
4
2
3
1
3
1
22
19
3
1
3
1
1
1
6
6
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
1
0
Slide 23
Relevance of Group and Difficulty
of Estimation, All Countries
group is relevant
80.0%
70.0%
provision of estimate is
an issue
67.3%
65.3%
60.0%
53.1%
50.0%
51.0%
51.0%
46.9%
44.9%
40.0%
36.7%
30.6%
30.0%
30.6%
26.5%
24.5%
18.4%
20.0%
16.3%
14.3%
16.3%
10.0%
0.0%
Irregular
November 6, 2015
Short-term
Refugees
Asylum
Trafficked
Minors
Transit
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Circular
Slide 24
Country-Specific Relevance and Difficulties in
Estimation of Irregular Migration
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 25
Factors that Influence the Difficulty of
Measuring Hard-to-Count Migrants
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Data issues
• Lack of data due to nature of their migration
(fewer formalized administrative records; illegal residence)
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Data sources lack specific information
needed to measure
(migration history information; duration of stay )
•
Lack of coverage/response for populations
of interest
(limited population register coverage; higher survey non-response rates)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 26
Factors, cont.
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Statistical Office might have difficulty
accessing administrative data from other
national organizations
Data already produced by another
organization
Lack of relevance for a country (in terms
of size and/or policy)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 27
Use of Sample Surveys to
Measure Hard-to-Count Migrants
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Few countries use sample surveys to
derive estimates of hard-to-count migrant
populations.
Short-term migrants
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•
•
Moldova’s labor force survey
Portugal’s emigration survey
United Kingdom’s International Passenger Survey
(not a household survey)
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 28
Sampling Rare and Elusive
Populations
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Sophisticated sampling techniques can be used to capture rare
populations
Probability methods: each sampling unit has an equal chance of
being selected
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Non-probability methods
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Dual-sampling (disproportionate): locate sampling units with a high
proportion of migrants (either using pre-existing data, like a census,
or sampling areas to discover them), then oversample in these units
Adaptative or snowball techniques
 Can suffer from lack of generalizability due to their non-random
nature.
Can combine probability and non-probability methods (e.g. initial
sample is selected randomly, and then ask for references) to
obtain estimates of rare populations.
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 29
Even if Sampled, Data Quality
Concerns Remain!
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Lower response rates
• Higher levels of item non-response (particularly to
more sensitive question like legal status or income)
• Potentially differing response rates by mode of
survey (e.g. lower response of hard-to-count
migrant groups to internet-based surveys)
• Impact of language ability on response rates and
answers given
• Survey attrition (longitudinal)
• Imputation rates
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 30
Examples of Survey Questions to
Identify Hard-to-Count Migrant
Populations
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Even if surveys are not used for
estimation, they can be used to identify
migrant groups
Based on international defintions, what
pieces of information are needed?
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 31
Short-Term Migrants
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Exact duration of stay (in country of
residence) or date of entry
For greater clarification:
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Purpose of movement
• Intent of duration of stay
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 32
Duration of Stay: Italy LFS (2011)
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In what year did you come to live in Italy the first time?
Do you remember the month?
Since that time, have you always been living in Italy?
Please exclude travels or holidays away from Italy of a
period of time shorter than one year
Since when have you been living in Italy without
leaving the Country for one year or more?
Do you remember the month?
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 33
Intended Duration of Stay: UK International Passenger Survey
(2012)
How long do you intend to stay in the UK?
Under 12 months .................. 1
Up to 2 years ........................ 2
Up to 4 years ........................ 3
Permanently > 4 years .......... 4
Not sure how many years ..... 6
DK, possibly 12 months ........
Purpose of Move: Russian Federation 2010 Census
What is the purpose of your arrival to Russia?
работа (work)
учеба (study)
служебная или деловая поездка (official or business trip)
лечение (medical treatment)
туризм, отдых (tourism, recreation)
транзитная миграция (transit migration)
другая цель → (other purpose)
Запишите какая Specify
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 34
Circular migration
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Migration history (for at least two most
recent international moves)
Duration of stay
Purpose of movement
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 35
Migration History: Turkey Demographic
and Health Survey (2008)
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SECTION 1B. MIGRATION HISTORY
After you have completed age 12, have you ever changed your place of
residence at least for 6 months? (Yes, No)
Now I wish to talk about all the different places of residences you have
lived in for at least 6 months after you have completed age 12. Can you
tell me the places you have lived in since then, starting from the one you
were living at the age of 12?
In which province were you living?
When you were living there was this place a province centre, a district
centre, a sub-district or village? Or was it abroad?
For how long did you live in ......? (RECORD IN MONTHS IF LESS
THAN 2 YEARS)
At which month and year did you migrate from ........ to ........ ?
What was the main reason of migration from ......?
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 36
Trafficked Migrants
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Highly sensitive survey topic (irregular)
ILO pilot tested surveys to measure
forced labour (including trafficking)
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Armenia (2009), Georgia (2008), Moldova
LFS (2008)
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Targeted working age populations who had
recently returned from working abroad
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 37
Trafficking: Moldova LFS
Migration Module (2008)
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Have you ever been exploited in any of the following ways while
working for someone else abroad?
Did this situation happen at the last job?
What was the sector in which you had to work under exploitation
conditions?
When were you exploited?
In what country did this happened
For how long were you in this situation?
What was different at the working place as compared to what was
previously promised to you?
Have you ever had to work against your own will under one of the
following conditions?
By what means did the owner force you to work?
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 38
Summary
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Some hard-to-count migrant groups were much more
relevant to countries than others
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Most relevant: irregular, short-term, refugees, and asylum
seekers
Less relevant: transit and circular migrants
Overall, a paucity of data on these topics, and when
data collected, often use a wide array of definitions
(e.g. short-term migration)
The use of household surveys to estimate these
populations is extremely rare
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 39
Summary, cont.
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Household surveys can be used to identify hard-tocount migrants
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Analysis of outcomes and characteristics in comparison to
other migrant and non-migrant groups.
Specialized sampling techniques (and surveys) still
necessary, given scarce presence in general
population
Data quality concerns are still an issue
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 40
Future Work
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Investigation of data quality issues
Sampling methodology needed to
capture hard-to-count groups
More comprehensive examination of
questions asked to identify these groups
and recommend best practices
November 6, 2015
Jason Schachter- UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 41