Transcript Understanding demographic trends: Implications for Extension Bridging the Culture Divide: Inclusive Extension Programming for Latinos October 14-15, 2008

Understanding
demographic trends:
Implications for Extension
Bridging the Culture Divide:
Inclusive Extension Programming for Latinos
October 14-15, 2008
Acknowledgement

The presenters wish to thank Steve Murdock, Director –
U.S. Census Bureau, for permission to include slides
from his presentation “Population Change and
Immigration in the United States: Implications for
Economic and Socioeconomic Change and the 2010
Census” given at Joint Council of Extension
Professionals Galaxy Conference held in Indianapolis,
IN, September 16, 2008.
Overview
Population trends
 Demographics

 Racial/Ethnic
Diversity
 Age
Role of immigration
 Implications for Socioeconomic
Development

Overview
Population trends
 Demographics

 Racial/Ethnic
Diversity
 Age
Role of immigration
 Implications for Socioeconomic
Development

40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
17
90
18
10
18
30
18
50
18
70
18
90
19
10
19
30
19
50
19
70
19
90
20
07
Population
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
Population
Population Change
Percent Change
Total Population & Percent Population
Change in United States
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
United States
Population
Percent
Population of U.S. & Percentage
Distribution by Region, 1950-2000
Percent Change in Population
for States and Puerto Rico: 2000-2007
Overview
Population trends
 Demographics

 Racial/Ethnic
Diversity
 Age
Role of immigration
 Implications for Socioeconomic
Development

Population, Percent Change in Population
and Proportion of Population by Ethnicity
for Texas and the U.S (2000 and 2007)
Ethnic Category
White Alone Non-Hispanic
Black Alone Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
Other Non-Hispanic
Total
White Alone Non-Hispanic
Black Alone Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
Other Non-Hispanic
Total
Population
2000
10,986,965
2,378,444
6,669,666
816,745
20,851,820
195,575,485
34,313,007
35,305,818
16,227,596
281,421,906
Percent Change
2007
2000-2007
Texas
11,443,618
4.2%
2,729,864
14.8%
8,600,399
28.9%
1,130,499
38.4%
23,904,380
14.6%
United States
199,091,567
37,037,204
45,504,311
19,988,075
301,621,157
1.8%
7.9%
28.9%
23.2%
7.2%
Proportion of Population
2000
2007
52.7%
11.4%
32.0%
3.9%
100.0%
47.9%
11.4%
36.0%
4.7%
100.0%
69.5%
12.2%
12.5%
5.8%
100.0%
66.0%
12.3%
15.1%
6.6%
100.0%
Latino Population in U.S.
Percent Change in Latino Population in U.S.
Median Age in the United States and Texas,
1900-2007
40.0
35.3
35.0
29.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
22.9
18.7
24.1
26.5
25.3
30.1
30.0
29.5
28.0
28.1
27.9
27.0
26.8
26.4
32.9
30.8
32.3
36.6
33.1
23.7
22.0
20.2
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
United States
1970
Texas
1980
1990
2000
2007
Percent Change in Population by Age Group
in the United States and Texas, 1990-2000
Percent Change
70
60.3
60
49.4
50
40
30
20
24
21.7
20.7
16.3
13.7
15.3
14.8
12
5.3
10
1.5
0
<18
18-24
25-44
45-54
Age Groups
United States
Texas
55-64
65+
Percent of U.S. Population By Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2000
Percent
16.4
21.5
21.7
23.4
25.8
78.5
78.3
76.6
74.2
28.1
71.9
31
34.8
38.1
69
65.2
61.9
38.9
40
36.9
37.2
40.1
41.6
61.1
62.8
59.9
58.4
60
63.1
80
83.6
100
20
0
<
5
s
ar
e
y
5
rs
to
9
a
ye
10
to
14
s
ar
e
y
15
to
19
s
ar
e
y
20
to
24
s
ar
e
y
25
to
29
s
ar
e
y
30
to
34
s
ar
e
y
Anglo
35
to
39
s
ar
e
y
40
to
44
s
ar
e
y
Non-anglo
45
to
49
s
ar
e
y
50
to
54
s
ar
e
y
55
to
59
s
ar
e
y
60
to
64
rs
s
ar
e
y
65
+
a
ye
Percent of Texas Population By Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2000
Percent
80.0
72.6
66.4
67.1
63.5
60.2
60.0
57.2
53.0
47.8
44.0
40.0
39.5
45.0
41.641.3
38.0
45.0
44.4
43.1
40.5
38.6
38.4
35.3
30.5
26.7
20.0
24.2
22.4
20.6
20.3
16.7
0.0
s
s
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
ar
ar
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
e
e
e
y
y
y
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
5
to
6
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
5
0
5
0
5
0
5
0
5
0
5
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
Anglo
Hispanic
Overview
Population trends
 Demographics

 Racial/Ethnic
Diversity
 Age
Role of immigration
 Implications for Socioeconomic
Development

Percent of U.S. Population Change Due to
Immigration and Natural Increase, 1820 to
2005
Time Period
1820-30
1830-40
1840-50
1850-60
1860-70
1870-80
1880-90
1890-1900
1900-10
1910-20
1920-30
1930-40
1940-50
1950-60
1960-70
1970-80
1980-90
1990-2000
2000-2005
0%
20%
40%
60%
Percent
Components of Change
Immigration
Natural Increase
80%
100%
Immigration into the United States (in
thousands), by Period and Area of Origin of
Immigrants (Percentage), 1820-2006
100.00%
18,000,000
90.00%
16,000,000
80.00%
70.00%
12,000,000
Percent
60.00%
10,000,000
50.00%
8,000,000
40.00%
6,000,000
30.00%
4,000,000
20.00%
2,000,000
10.00%
0.00%
0
1820-39
Europe
1840-59
1860-79
Asia
1880-99
1900-19
1920-39
Latin America
1940-59
1960-79
All other
1980-99
2000-07
Immigrants
Number of Immigrants
14,000,000
Components of Change by Hispanic Origin,
United States, 2000-2006
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
Population Change
Birth
U.S. Total
Death
U.S. Hispanic
Natural Increase
U.S. Non-Hispanic
Net Migration
Numeric Change in Projected U.S. Population by
Race & Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)
156.9
97.2
17.5
23.0
11.6
7.6
Non-Hispanic
White alone
Non-Hispanic
Black alone
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
Non-Hispanic
Asian alone
Non-Hispanic all
other races
Hispanic (any
race)
Total
Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and
Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)
Non-Hispanic White alone
Non-Hispanic all other races
500
Non-Hispanic Black alone
Hispanic (any race)
Non-Hispanic Asian alone
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
2020
2030
2040
2050
Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race
and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050
Non-Hispanic White
alone
5%
Non-Hispanic Black
alone
11%
Non-Hispanic Asian
alone
15%
Hispanic
62%
Non-Hispanic Other
7%
Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population:
2000 to 2050 (in percent)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0-4
5-19
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
20-44
45-64
65-84
85 and older
Percent Change in the Projected U.S. Population
by Age: 2000 to 2050
343.2
125.6
46.6
0-4
57.7
38.3
33.6
5-19
20-44
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections
45-64
65-84
85 and older
Overview
Population trends
 Demographics

 Racial/Ethnic
Diversity
 Age
Role of immigration
 Implications for Socioeconomic
Development

Language Spoken at Home of Foreign-Born
and U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics,
2000 (Persons 5 Years and Older)
First Generation (Foreign-Born)
English
Only
Ethnic Identity
Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born)
Spanish
All Other
Languages
English
Only
Spanish
All Other
Languages
Not Hispanic
N
%
5,780,867
31.3
355,778
1.9
12,313,265
66.7
202,899,620
95.5
3,110,915
1.5
6,380,528
3.0
Hispanic
N
%
984,087
6.3
14,422,751
93.0
105,506
0.7
5,787,871
36.1
10,167,640
63.5
66,913
0.4
Total
N
%
6,764,954
19.9
14,778,529
43.5
12,418,771
36.6
208,687,491
91.4
13,278,555
5.8
6,447,441
2.8
Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS
“The Making of a People” by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta
Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press, Washington,
D.C.
English Proficiency of Foreign-Born and U.S.Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics Who Speak
a Language Other Than English at Home
(Persons 5 Years and Older)
First Generation (Foreign-Born)
Ethnic Identity
Second+ Generations (U.S.-Born)
Very Well
Well
Not Well
Very Well
Well
Not Well
Not Hispanic
N
%
6,422,750
50.6
3,618,000
28.5
2,640,980
20.8
7,248,659
76.3
1,368,422
14.4
879,628
9.3
Hispanic
N
%
4,359,787
30.0
3,492,497
24.0
6,676,279
46.0
7,580,619
74.1
1,851,963
18.1
802,037
7.8
Total
N
%
10,782,537
39.6
7,110,497
26.1
9,317,259
34.2
14,829,278
75.2
3,220,385
16.3
1,681,665
8.5
Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS
“The Making of a People” by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta
Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C.
Educational Attainment of Foreign-Born and
U.S.-Born Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the
U.S., 2000 (Persons 25 Years and Older)
First Generation
(Foreign-Born)
Ethnic Identity
Second+ Generations
(U.S.-Born)
Less Than
High School
College
Graduate
or More
Less Than
High School
College
Graduate
or More
Not Hispanic
N
%
3,213,973
21.3
5,388,741
35.7
23,821,393
16.0
37,132,874
25.0
Hispanic
N
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
6,724,296
58.5
69.9
46.4
40.9
51.8
64.7
42.9
27.9
29.5
19.0
28.2
1,007,105
8.8
4.4
10.9
18.8
9.5
5.2
13.2
22.0
17.6
31.7
28.5
1,964,135
29.1
31.0
23.2
13.3
19.3
26.7
13.5
10.7
9.3
7.5
30.1
903,691
13.4
11.6
14.8
34.2
21.4
22.9
33.2
38.3
36.1
46.6
12.8
N
%
9,938,269
37.4
6,395,846
24.0
25,785,528
16.6
38,036,565
24.4
Mexican
Puerto Rican
Cuban
Dominican
Salvardoran, Guatamalan
Central American, other
Columbian
Peruvian, Ecuadorian
South American, other
Other Spanish, Hispanic, Latino
Total
Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS
“The Making of a People” by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta
Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C.
Occupational Statusa of Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Hispanics and NonHispanics in the United States, 2000 (Employed Persons 16 and Older)
First Generation
(Foreign-Born)
Ethnic Identity
Second+ Generations
(U.S.-Born)
Low-Wage
Labor
Professional,
Technical,
Managerial
Low-Wage
Labor
Professional,
Technical,
Managerial
Not Hispanic
N
%
3,888,636
30.1
5,895,344
45.7
41,137,385
30.2
54,681,470
40.1
Hispanic
N
%
6,760,643
61.5
1,752,934
15.9
2,899,023
36.4
2,287,386
28.7
Total
N
%
10,649,279
44.6
7,648,278
32.0
44,036,408
30.5
56,968,856
39.5
a Occupations
ranked by their SEI (Duncan socioeconomic index) scores
Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 5% PUMS
“The Making of a People” by Rubén G. Rumbaut in Chapter 2 in Hispanics and the Future of America, Marta
Tienda and Faith Mitchell, eds. 2006. National Research Council: The National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C.
Percent of Workers in Selection Occupations in
U.S. Who Are Unauthorized Migrants, 2004
Occupation
%
Occupation
%
Drywall/ceiling tile installers...
Roofers
Painters, construction etc.
Carpenters
27%
21%
20%
12%
Cement masons & finishers
Construsction laborers
Brick/block/stone masons
22%
20%
19%
Grounds maint. workers
Hand packers & packagers
26%
22%
Misc. agricultural workers
Graders & sorters, ag. prod.
23%
22%
Butchers/meat, poultry wrkrs
Cooks
Food prep. workers
25%
18%
13%
Dishwashers
Dining & cafeteria attendants
Janitors & bldg. cleaners
24%
14%
12%
Maids & housekeepers
22%
Sewing machine operators
18%
Cleaning/washing equip. oper
Metal/plastic workers, other
20%
13%
Packaging/filling mach. oper.
17%
Source: Jeffrey S. Passel, “Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics.” 2005.
Background Briefing Prepared for Task Force on Immigration and America’s Future.
Washington D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center
Foreign-born share of employment
by occupation
38.5
Farming, fishing, and forestry
32.7
Cleaning and maintenance
22.1
Food preparation, serving
22
Natural resources, const & maint.
21
Computer and math
20.7
Service
19.8
Production, transportation
13.5
Healthcare, technical
11.2
Mngmt, professionals
8.2
Education
6.3
Legal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Foreign-born share of job growth,
by occupation
61.7
Services Occupations
86.2
Precision production, craft, and repair
57.7
Total
30.9
Technicians and related support
27
Professional specialty
57.3
Sales occupations
18
Executive, administrative, and managerial
Source: 1996-2002, BLS
0
20
40
60
80
100
35
Foreign-born share of employment growth
by census division
< 40
40 - 60
60 - 80
Source: 1996-2003, BLS
80 +
36
Share of US scientists and engineers
who are foreign-born large, increasing
Percent
40
35
1990
2000
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All college
degrees
Bachelor's
Master's
Professional
Doctoral
37
Source: Science and Engineering Indicators
Native and foreign-born labor force change,
by education
2197
College grad
5414
1414
1483
Some college
High school grad
Foreign-born
Native
1547
-657
Less than high
-1407
school
-2000 -1000
Source: 1996-2003; BLS, Haver Analytics
1662
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Thousands
38
Median Household Income in the
United States by Age of Householder, 1999
Dollars
$56,917
$60,000
$50,873
$44,597
$50,000
$42,174
$40,000
$30,000
$27,304
$25,171
$19,161
$20,000
$10,000
$0
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Age of Householder
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Money Income in the United States: 1999, Current Population Report P60-209
39
Median Household Income in U.S. by
Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with
Percent Change 1989 to 1999
Median
Household Income
Race/Ethnicity
of Householder
1989
(in 1999 dollars)
Total
1999
Percent
Change
1989-99
$ 39,009
$ 41,994
7.7
Anglo
41,106
45,367
10.4
Black
25,643
29,423
14.7
Hispanic*
31,351
33,676
7.4
Asian
48,030
51,908
8.1
*Hispanics can be of any race.
40
Median Household Income in U.S. by
Race/Ethnicity, 1999
Dollars
$60,000
$51,205
$50,000
$42,504
$40,000
$30,735
$27,910
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
White
Black
Asian and
Pacific Islander
Hispanic
Median Household Income in U.S. by
Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with Percent
Change 1989 to 1999
Median
Household Income
Race/Ethnicity
of Householder
1989
(in 1999 dollars)
Total
1999
Percent
Change
1989-99
$ 39,009
$ 41,994
7.7
Anglo
41,106
45,367
10.4
Black
25,643
29,423
14.7
Hispanic*
31,351
33,676
7.4
Asian
48,030
51,908
8.1
*Hispanics can be of any race.
Median Household Income in U.S. by
Household Type, 1999
Dollars
$56,827
$60,000
$50,000
$41,838
$40,000
$26,164
$30,000
$24,566
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Married-couple
Families
Male Householder,
no wife present
Female Householder,
no husband present
Household Type
Non-Family
Households
Median Household Income in U.S. by Age of
Householder and Race/Ethnicity, 1999
Age of
Householder
Total
White
Black
Hispanic*
15 - 24
$25,171
$26,787
$15,576
$24,268
25 - 34
42,174
45,230
28,766
31,377
35 - 44
50,873
53,034
35,061
34,699
45 - 54
56,917
60,370
39,638
39,711
55 - 64
44,597
46,483
28,631
30,718
65 - 74
27,304
28,470
18,647
18,807
75 +
19,161
19,491
13,637
14,166
*Hispanics can be of any race
Source: Money Income in the United States: 1999, Current
Population Reports, P 60-209. Washington, D.C.: U.S.
Bureau of the Census
Median Household Income in the U.S. by
Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with Percent
Change 1989 to 1999
Median
Household Income
Race/Ethnicity
of Householder
1989
(in 1999 dollars)
Total (all races)
1999
Percent
Change
1989-99
$38,721
$40,816
5.1
W hite
40,732
42,504
4.2
Black
24,479
27,910
12.3
Asian and Pacific Islander
48,383
51,205
5.5
Hispanic*
29,264
30,735
4.8
*Hispanics can be of any race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Money Income in the United States,
Current Population Report P60-209.
Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound
Seniors in U.S. in 2001 by Selected Characteristics
SAT Score
Mean
Verbal
Mean
Math
506
514
Race/Ethnicity:
American Indian
African American or Black
Hispanic: Mexican American
Puerto Rican
Other Hispanic
White
Asian American or Pacific Islander
481
433
451
457
460
529
501
479
426
458
451
465
531
566
Household Income:
< $10,000
$10,000 - 20,000
$20,000 - 30,000
$30,000 - 40,000
$40,000 - 50,000
$50,000 - 60,000
$60,000 - 70,000
$70,000 - 80,000
$80,000 - 100,000
> $100,000
421
442
468
487
501
509
516
522
534
557
443
456
474
489
503
512
519
527
540
569
Characteristic
All Students
(N = 1,276,320)
Percent of Net Change in Elementary &
Secondary & College Enrollment 2000-2050
Due to Each Race/Ethnicity
Race
Number
Percent
Total Enrollment
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-2,250,427
4,651,683
16,188,011
7,887,214
26,476,481
-8.5
17.6
61.1
29.8
100.0
Elementary and Secondary
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-2,011,875
3,366,141
13,373,528
5,432,495
20,160,289
-9.9
16.7
66.3
26.9
100.0
College Enrollment
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-238,552
1,285,542
2,814,483
2,454,719
6,316,192
-3.9
20.4
44.6
38.9
100.0
Percent of Population 15 Years of Age and
Older in U.S. by Educational Attainment Level
and Race/Ethnicity, 2000
Attainment Level
Less than 9th grade
9th to 12th grade, no degree
High school graduate
(includes equivalency)
Some college, no degree
Associate degree
Bachelors degree
Graduate or professional degree
Total
%
Non-Hispanic
White
%
Non-Hispanic
Black
%
Hispanic
Origin
%
Non-Hispanic
Other
%
Total
4.9
14.0
7.6
24.9
24.6
26.1
9.0
16.1
7.7
16.8
28.4
22.7
6.2
15.5
8.3
28.4
22.2
5.0
8.1
3.8
21.8
15.6
3.6
5.4
2.9
19.9
19.5
6.0
18.6
10.9
27.2
21.7
5.7
13.6
7.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Percent Projected Educational Attainment
Level in U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050
Population 15 Years of Age and Older
Attainment Level
%
Non-Hispanic
White
%
Non-Hispanic
Black
%
Hispanic
Origin
%
Non-Hispanic
Other
%
Total
2000
Less than 9th grade
9th to 12th grade, no degree
High school graduate
(includes equivalency)
Some college, no degree
Associate degree
Bachelors degree
Graduate or professional degree
Total
45.8
59.5
12.1
18.1
36.2
17.5
5.9
4.9
7.7
16.8
74.6
74.8
76.8
81.3
81.5
71.4
12.7
12.5
10.6
7.2
6.4
12.2
9.0
8.1
7.2
4.5
4.5
11.3
3.7
4.6
5.4
7.0
7.6
5.1
27.2
21.7
5.7
13.6
7.3
100.0
23.4
39.6
11.3
20.1
55.6
31.1
9.7
9.2
11.7
17.8
56.9
57.3
58.1
64.2
63.4
51.4
16.0
15.7
13.7
9.6
8.9
14.7
18.7
17.1
16.0
10.1
10.9
23.2
8.4
9.9
12.2
16.1
16.8
10.7
26.0
20.1
5.2
12.2
7.0
100.0
2050
Less than 9th grade
9th to 12th grade, no degree
High school graduate
(includes equivalency)
Some college, no degree
Associate degree
Bachelors degree
Graduate or professional degree
Total
Implications for the 2010 Census
(and Extension / Public Services?)
The post 9/11 psyche
 The Immigration Debate
 Natural and manmade disasters
 A larger and “hard-to-reach population
 Increased resistance to providing
personal information

50
Sources of Data






U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Pew Hispanic Center
Marta Tienda and Faith Mitchell, (eds.)
Hispanics and the Future of America
National Academy Press, Washington D.C.
2006
State Data Centers
Discussion


How might you use this data
Implications
 Youth
& 4-H Development
 Family Consumer Sciences
 Agriculture
 Community Development