Transcript RENEWABLE ENERGY AS A SECURITY TACTIC: AN EMERGENCY MANAGER’S PERSPECTIVE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS WORKSHOP JUNE 22, 2005

RENEWABLE ENERGY
AS A SECURITY TACTIC:
AN EMERGENCY MANAGER’S
PERSPECTIVE
WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN
COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS
WORKSHOP
JUNE 22, 2005
IT IS NOT “THE DAY AFTER
TOMORROW,” BUT . . . . . .
• $60 billion in damage from climate-related
disasters
• Europe’s summer heat wave cost $10
billion
• Flooding in China, $ 8 billion
• Tornadoes in the Midwest US, $ 3 billion
• Losing about 100,000 lives per year and
about $100 billion a year from disasters
WEATHER IN 2004
• Record 10 typhoons in Japan
• First hurricane ever in South America
• Insurance costs topped $40 billion
• Fourth warmest year since worldwide
records began
• First time for four hurricanes hitting one
state
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
REPORT
• "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its
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Implications for United States National Security,"
by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall:
Global warming could lead to slowing of the
ocean's thermohaline conveyor, leading to:
Harsher winter weather conditions
Reduced soil moisture
More intense winds
Diminished world food production
DISASTER PREPAREDNESS:
A MUST
• “With inadequate preparation, the result could be a
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significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the
Earth's environment,” according to the DOD Report.
By 2007 violent storms could make large parts of the
Netherlands uninhabitable and lead to a breach in the
aqueduct system in California
Europe and the US could become virtual fortresses with
millions of migrants from rising sea levels or drought
Catastrophic shortages of potable water and energy
could lead to widespread war by 2020.
PREDICTIONS SHOW
DISASTER MITIGATION: A MUST
• More droughts
• More floods
• Ice cap in the Arctic melted 4,800 cubic miles of water,
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1965-1995 (Lakes Superior, Erie, Ontario, and Huron)
Going to extremes – paradoxes
Rising ocean and atmospheric temperatures
Retreating ice caps and glaciers
Disappearing lakes in Siberia
Rising sea levels
Changing ecosystems
Sustainable development
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“CLIMATE CHANGE, CLEAN
ENERGY, AND SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT” DOCUMENT
Rising temperatures
Carbon dioxide emissions
Heat trapping gas emissions
Need for environmental standards
World Bank funded power projects
G8 Meeting in Scotland in July, 2005
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair Chairs and
Supports
G8 MEMBERS
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US
UK
FRANCE
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
RUSSIA
CANADA
HUMAN INDUCED DISASTERS
• IMF estimates the economic costs of WTC
attack reduced US GDP by 0.75 percent or
$ 75 billion in 2002
• Insurance losses for that event range from
$ 30-60 billion
• Even Ford Motor Company lost $ 30
million through supply chain disruptions
when the border was closed
PRIVATE SECTOR/ECONOMIC
IMPACT
• 80% of nation’s assets owned by private sector
• 43% of businesses suffering disaster never
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reopen
Of those that do reopen, only 29% are still
operating in two years
93% of companies that lose IT for more than
nine days - file for bankruptcy in one year; 50
percent, immediately
69% of businesses hit by terrorist attacks never
reopen
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
• Recent hazardous material accidents raise
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concerns
Approximately 800,000 shipments of such
substances travel daily throughout the United
States by
ground
rail
air
water
pipeline
+ Morbidity and Mortality Weekly
Report, CDC, January 28, 2005.+
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reach their destinations, many are explosive,
flammable, toxic, and corrosive and can be
extremely dangerous when improperly
released."
Move "over, through, and under areas that are
densely populated or populated by schools,
hospitals, or nursing homes, where the
consequences of a release could cause severe
injury, death, environmental damage, and
economic loss."
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Route away from densely populated areas
• Use HazMat Emergency Events Surveillance data and
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other databases to determine where most releases
occur
Revise emergency response plans to include a
community-based public education campaign detailing
proper evacuation
shelter-in-place
decontamination procedures
Employ public warning systems, public shelters, and
practice drills.
RECOMMENDATIONS CONTINUED
• Ensure HazMat handlers receive continuous job
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safety training and have appropriate personal
protective equipment
Ensure emergency medical service and hospital
emergency department personnel have the
guidance to plan for and respond to HazMat
incidents involving human exposure.
Emphasize the importance of preventive
maintenance for equipment and vehicles used in
HazMat transport
HAZ MAT GOOD NEWS
• Implementation of these
recommendations
to reduce morbidity and mortality from
transit-associated HazMat releases can be
accomplished by:
• Government
• Private organizations
• First responders
BLACKOUTS
• Almost two years after a blackout
darkened the northeastern United
States
• Created an international disaster
• The country's power grid is still as
susceptible to outages
• The industry managed to get back
online rapidly
RESULTS
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$12 billion plus economic cost
Air conditioning went out
People were trapped in subways and elevators
Planes were grounded and traffic lights went
dark
Cell phones didn't recharge
New York, Cleveland, Toronto and Detroit lost
most of their power
50 million people
18.9 million lost work hours in Canada alone
VULNERABILITY RECOGNIZED
• The power grid is everywhere
• Vulnerable to attacks, leaving millions without
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power
Every power line, every transformer, every
transfer station cannot be defended
The grid is so large
Attacks that would disrupt power, leaving it off
for more than a few days, are difficult to
envision
PROBLEM
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Employee mistakes
Age of the country's grid
Weak maintenance
Faulty monitoring equipment
Breakdown in communications
"(The country has) been spending less and less
money on our energy infrastructure every year
since 1990."
+ Stephen Hein, vice president of corporate
communications for Trion Energy Systems+
CONTINUING CONCERNS
• Unprotected transmission lines
• “Knot holes" - areas where large amounts of power
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move through small systems
Public rotates between near panic, high concern, and
then comfortable complacency
440 Civil Nuclear Reactors in 30 countries, cover 66% of
world’s population, produce 16% of world electricity
Extreme temperatures bring requirements for more
electricity and power
Cyber attacks and vulnerabilities
RECOMMENDATIONS
• The North American Electric Regulatory
Council (NERC)
• Self-regulatory organization monitoring
utility industry
• System-wide audits after blackout
• 17 recommendations
• NERC Rules are voluntary
• Major conclusion: cause was preventable
QUOTES
• "It shows us we have tied together so
many systems to build a high quality life,
and that creates its own vulnerabilities."
• James Gilmore, the former Virginia
governor, chairman of a terrorism panel
formed by Congress.
ANOTHER QUOTE
• New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, former energy
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secretary
"In my view we're the world's greatest superpower but
we have a Third World electricity grid."
"We have antiquated transmission lines. We have an
overloaded system that has not had any new
investments and we don't have mandatory reliability
standards on utilities, which caused this problem."
“National standards are needed to prevent utilities from
having more power than they can absorb. It's as simple
as that."
TRENDS
• WE ARE USING TWICE AS MUCH ENERGY AS 20
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POLLUTION IS A GROWING CONCERN
BUSINESS COMMUNITY HAS TO LEAD
SOME STATES PROVIDE INCENTIVES
FEMA RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY
PREPAREDNESS PROGRAM (REP)
TECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE AND READY
RENEWABLE ENERGY
FUTURE ISSUES
• Standards enforceable by the Federal Energy Regulatory
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Commission
Intertwined security vulnerabilities of Canada and US
US and Canada have working:
1. secure the common 5,500-mile border
2. protect vital power, a pipelines, railways, roads and
bridges
3. defense is incomplete
China is expected to increase its nuclear power
production by 450% in next 15 years
OIL AND GAS
• National Contingency Plan names EPA the lead
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federal response agency for oil spills in inland
waters
U.S. Coast Guard is the lead response agency for
spills in coastal waters and deepwater ports
Oil spills peril is not such an imminent threat for
the public, but the affects on the environment
are enormous which impacts the public over
time
US COAST GUARD ROLE
• Responsible for implementing the Oil Pollution Act
• Responsible for vessels, deepwater ports, and the
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marine transfer components of transportation-related
onshore facilities which include some inland areas
Provides on-scene coordinator
Designates zones manages the National Response
Center
Maintains the National Strike Force, used for major
marine pollution incidents
Acts as the fund manager for the Oil Pollution Liability
Trust Fund
•I HATE TO MENTION IT, BUT
• OVERPOPULATION
• ANOTHER 58 MILLION IN US BY 2025
• WORLDWIDE, WE GROW ANOTHER NYC EVERY
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6 WEEKS
1 BILLION EVERY 12 YEARS WORLDWIDE, UP
TO 9 BILLION BY 2050
30,000 CHILDREN DIE EVERY DAY IN
DEVELOPING WORLD
UNIMAGINABLE PRESSURES ON ENERGY
SYSTEMS
THE WAY FORWARD
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Need redundancy
Back up
Replicable
Need vital appropriations for renewable energy
programs -- we have lots of work to do because
reductions of $24 million proposed
ENERGY PLANNING ON A GLOBAL BASIS
My Personal Favorite is Solar Energy!!!
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
• WTC attacks showed that only a few cell phone
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services provided the only form of
communications
Safety – all plants linked worldwide
Arms Proliferation – security of environment and
protection from terrorism compatible
Cost cutting
Waste monitoring
RENEWABLE ENERGY
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THE RESCUE
• Biomass -- ethanol, bio-diesel, biomass power, industrial process
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energy
Geothermal -- use the heat of the earth for direct-use applications,
heat pumps, and electrical power production
Hydrogen -- produced from hydrocarbons, water and, when burned
as a fuel, or converted to electricity, it joins with oxygen to again
form water
Hydropower -- hydroelectric power facilities can generate enough
power to supply 28 million households with electricity
Ocean -- energy of ocean waves, tides, as well as thermal energy
Solar -- use the sun's energy and light to provide heat, light, hot
water, electricity, cooling, for homes, businesses, and industry.
Wind -- uses energy in wind for generating electricity, charging
batteries, pumping water, grinding grain
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• Buildings -- solar energy and geothermal heat
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pumps
Industry -- uses more than one-third of all the
energy used in US
Power -- Technologies maximize efficient
generation, transmission, and storage of energy
Transportation -- 65% of U.S. oil consumption
and predominant source of air pollution
WINSTON CHURCHILL SAID IT
BEST
• “THIS IS NOT THE END.
• “THIS IS NOT EVEN THE BEGINNING OF
THE END.
• “THIS IS SIMPLY THE END OF THE
BEGINNING.”
IN CLOSING
• WE CAN DO BETTER
• WE MUST DO BETTER
• EVERYBODY HAS TO ACT
• THANKS TO COG FOR LEADING THE WAY!
KAY C. GOSS, CEM®
• VICE PRESIDENT FOR HOMELAND
SECURITY
• ELECTRONIC DATA SYSTEMS
CORPORATION (EDS)
• FORMER ASSOCIATE FEMA DIRECTOR
• [email protected]
• 703-736-4052