Transcript Cleaner, More Efficient Mobility: the role of fuels and vehicles Elisa Dumitrescu, UNEP DTIE Transport Unit, Moscow, June 2012

Cleaner, More
Efficient Mobility:
the role of fuels
and vehicles
Elisa Dumitrescu, UNEP DTIE Transport Unit,
Moscow, June 2012
UNEP Transport Unit: Key Programmes
Avoid: Share the Road
Shift: BRT, Low Carbon Mobility
Plans: India
Improve: Partnership for Clean
Fuels and Vehicles,
Global Fuel Economy Initiative
Cars a growing reality in emerging and developing markets…
Number of vehicles *
1000
• 890 million today…over 2.5 billion by 2050
• 90%+ of growth in developing, emerging economies
• Opportunity for energy efficiency, green economy innovation
year
IEA 2011
Russia: Top 11… Russia Europe’s largest car market by 2015
ICCT 2012
Demand for liquid fuel driven by non-OECD transport growth
BP EO 2030, 2012
CO2 from cars to double
BAU vs. Stabilization: fuel consumption, CO2 from cars to double 2000-2050
(IEA)
World LDV CO2 emissions, business as usual vs GFEI, million tonnes (Mt) CO2, GFEI intervention (IEA 2009)
5000
4500
4000
To cap
emissions:
3500
Fuel
BAU
efficiency
–
Stabilization
cut vehicle
fuel use by
½ by 2050 +
3000
2500
flanking
measures
2000
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
• Given the projected expansion of the
global fleet, how do we maximise the
benefits of fuel efficiency gains in cars
on a global scale?
The Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)
Mission: Facilitate large reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and oil
use through improvements in automotive fuel economy in the face of
rapidly growing car use worldwide.
Targets (2005 baseline):
30% reduction in LDV fuel consumption per km by 2020 in all
new cars in OECD countries
50% by 2030 in all new cars globally
50% by 2050 in all cars globally: from 8 L/100km to 4
L/100km average (90 g CO2/km) – doubling FE
5 Partners:
GFEI global timeline
2020
2030
New Cars
30% reduction* in
L/100km in OECD:
engines, drive
trains, weights,
aerodynamics;
PHEV, EV, FC not
required
Global
20% reductions with 35%
lag time for stock
turnover; ecodriving,
maintenance
* over 2005
50% average
improvement
globally: full
hybridisation of
most models;
PHEV, EV and
FC not required
2050
50% +
50by50
Working priorities of the GFEI
National, regional, global
• Support national governments and industry
partners to develop sound, consensus-driven policies
• Collect, analyze and communicate improved data
and analysis
• Consumers and decision makers information
• Technical Harmonization
GFEI Menu of Services
• Lead in national implementation
emerging, developing economies
• Secretariat, lead in communications
• Data, modelling, baseline,
projections
• Thematic research, scrappage, flows
• Technical, policy design support in
major markets, fiscal instruments
Working at country level
Australia
Chile
Georgia
Ethiopia
Kenya
Indonesia
Montenegro
+20 additional from 2013
Fuel Consumption by Year and Fuel
Type, Kenya; UNEP 2011
KENYA
2005
2008
Average
(l/100km)
Diesel
7.69
7.6
8.67
9.09
Petrol
7.52
7.2
http://www.unep.org/transport/gfei/autotool
Appropriate technology
Internal
combustion engine
(petrol/diesel)
hybrids
electric
Plug-in
(parallel)
full
mild
Degree of
electrification
0%
stop/start
Plug-in
(serial,
range
ext.)
Battery
electric
100%
Source: AECC
Savings
• Reduced emissions of CO2 by over 1 gigatonne (Gt) a
year by 2025 and over 2 gigatonnes (Gt) by 2050
– WB estimates that potential CO2 emission reductions
from interventions in Russian road transport 18 mtoe –
mostly from fuel efficiency, low emission cars
• Consumer costs – fuel savings:
€962-1,665 by 2020 with 95g Co2/km
standard (Europ
ClimateWorks
ClimateWorks
Data + Analysis: Global Progress - new registrations
Russia:
2005 - 8.33 l/100 km
2008 - 8.11 l/100 km
All (new and used) Russia Vehicles: 10-12 L/100 km (WB,
2008)
International Energy Agency
2011
Potential for action
• Fuel efficiency standards?
• Fiscal incentives: fee-bates, taxation, etc.
• Labeling schemes
• Consumer action, auto clubs
• Flanking measures – preferential parking
The role of fuel quality
“Particulate matter affects more people than any other pollutant.” WHO 2011
• Road traffic 50-80% source of
fine PM
• Move to low sulphur fuels
(<50ppm) and clean vehicles
• Opens door to cleaner, more
efficient technology
• 1/4 of global Black Carbon
emissions come from diesel
engines burning high-sulphur
fuel
Loss of statistical life expectancy (months) due
to anthropogenic PM2.5 emitted in 2000
Low Sulphur Fuels reduce PM directly, open door to
emission controls
500 ppm and 50
ppm critical vehicle
technology
breakpoints,
allowing for the use
of cleaner engines
and technologies
like filters.
23
Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles
Global Low Sulphur Campaign
• Technical, financial, networking support for
national policies that make cleaner fuels and
vehicles a reality in developing and emerging
economies
Focus on Russia
• Match transition to low sulphur fuels and Euro V
vehicles with a national approach to auto fuel
economy – strong policy (standards, fiscal
incentives) to enable technology
• UNEP/GFEI support: 2013 working-level Russia
dialogue on fuel economy
Thank you!
www.globalfueleconomy.org
www.unep.org/transport/gfei/autotool
www.unep.org/transport