Slide 1

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 2

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 3

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 4

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 5

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 6

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 7

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 8

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 9

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 10

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 11

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 12

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 13

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 14

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 15

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 16

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 17

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 18

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 19

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 20

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 21

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 22

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 23

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 24

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 25

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 26

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 27

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 28

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 29

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 30

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap


Slide 31

Introduction to the Energy Issues:
Starting from Power Sector

Energy Modelling Lab.
Department of Energy Studies,
Energy Systems Division, Ajou University
Prof. Suduk Kim
[email protected]

Question!
1 Byte

= 8 bits

01000001
ASCII Code

American Standard Code for Information Interchange

1 Byte
X 2^10

1024 Byte

= 8 bits
= 1KB

Apple II -> Year 1977
My First personal Computer, year 1985!!!

Question!
How many times bigger?
USD 1 = KRW 1150
USD 214= KRW 247,000

48KB

Electric Power & Tariff
How much of electric power to be
consumed if this computer is
‘power on’ for one whole month?

150W x 24Hour x 30Days
= 108,000Wh
= 108kWh

Understanding of Units

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nano-

Korea Nuclear Power Plants (Kori)

One Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
1GW = 1,000MW = 1,000,000kW

7

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.
-24MW, 0.7Mil m2 , US
200Mil.
1 Nuclear Power Plant =>
1GW = 1000MW
24MW x 40 approx.
1000MW

Capacity : to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 40 times)
-> 28 Mil m2 , US 8,000 Mil. (US 8 Bil.)
Power Generation: to be equivalent to 1 Nuclear Power Plant (x 5
times)
(with capacity factor of 20%, tracking device)
-> 140 Mil. m2 , US 40 Bil.
** Still we don’t get power during the night, rainy days,…

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

9

Power Mix Change Since Late 1970s
700
TWh

100

History of power generation

Planed power generation

93.66

90

86.12
600

Retail Rate of Electricity (Won/kWh)

77.24

Dubai($/barrel)

Renewable and etc.

69.87

500

70

60

61.7

400

80

52.94

Nuclear
50

300
40

35.69

Gas-fired
26.22

200
22.38

Oil-fired

30

20.50

20
100

13.03

12.16

Coal-fired
10

Hydro

0
0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: Data compiled from KESIS
Note: Figures after 2010 are projections taken from MKE (2010).

10

Ilustration of SMP, based on the merit order of March 2010
Variable Cost
(Won/kWh)

Load Forecast
(Hourly)

Available Capacity
(Hourly)

Regulated
VC

SMP

Oil
Coal
Hydro

Nuclear

Power Capacity (MW)

LNG

Feasibility Test Programs
Application
RETScreen

Vipor

Renewables

Homer

Energy in General

NEMS

Where?

Renewable Energy
Technology Screen

NRCan

Hybrid Optimization Model for
Electric Renewables

Village Power Optimization
Model for Renewables

DOE
NREL
(Hybrid2 : With
Massachusetts
Uinv.)

study a wide variety of hybrid
power systems

Hybrid2

LEAP

Dev. Purpose

Long-range Energy Alternatives
Planning system

National Energy Modeling
System

Characteristics
•For each RNE, technology, Cost
information required
•NPV, IRR
•Technology, Cost information, for
each RNE is required
•Cost Minimization Results are
obtained for complex choice of
system
•NPC, other sensitivity analysis
•Link with VIPOR, NPV
•Using the results from Homer,
local grid optimization
•Useful for regional Energy Plan
•Results from Homer can be
utilized
•Technology information required
for each RNE

Stockholm
Environmental
Institute

•Macroeconomic impact of energy
utilization can be evaluated: eg)
CO2 emission reduction

DOE EIA

•National Energy Model for each
energy source (Supply) and
sectoral (Demand) impact analysis
•Technology information, Cost,
other future scenarios can be
input for further impact analysis

REVAP1.0
For Example: Wind Farm Case

1st Year

2nd Year

Korean Version

REVAP 1.0

English Version
Chinese Version

New and Renewable Energy Center, KEMCO

13

Load Input

14

System Component

15

Energy Sources

16

Case 1. Chja Island

17

Case 2. Geomun Island

18

Case 3. Youngsan Island

19

Sectoral Impact Analysis Using I/O

Energy Balance (TOE)
Coal
ENERGY BALANCE
(UNIT:1000TOE)
=================== ======== ======== ========
COAL
ANTHRACITE
DOMEST-C
------------------- -------- -------- -------DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
1,274
1,274
1,274
IMPORTS
48,498
2,740
0
(PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
0
0
0
(PETROLEUM IMPORTS)
0
0
0
EXPORTS
0
0
0
INTL'BUNKERS
0
0
0
STOCK CHANGE(+/-)
696
696
622
FORMER STOCK
4,103
4,103
3,700
ENDING STOCK
-3,407
-3,407
-3,078
STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE 4,320
58
59
------------------- -------- -------- -------PRIMARY CONSUMPTION 54,788
4,768
1,956
TRANSFORMATION
-32,477
-895
-895
ELECTRIC GENERATION -32,477
-895
-895
DISTRICT HEATING
0
0
0
GAS MANUFACTURING
0
0
0
OWN USE AND LOSS
0
0
0
------------------- -------- -------- -------FINAL CONSUMPTION
22,311
3,874
1,062
INDUSTRY
21,237
2,800
18
Agri.Fishery
0
0
0
Mining
0
0
0
Manufacturing
21,237
2,799
18
Food.Tobaco
33
0
0
Textile. Apparel
104
0
0
Wood & wood pro.
0
0
0
Pulp & Publications
0
0
0
Petro.Chemical
119
0
0
Non-Metallic
3,176
3
3
Iron & Steel
14,463
728
14
Non-ferrous
0
0
0
Fabricated Metal
0
0
0
Other Manufacturing 3,343
2,068
0
Other Energy
0
0
0
Construction
0
0
0
TRANSPORTATION
0
0
0
Rail
0
0
0
Land
0
0
0
Water
0
0
0
Air
0
0
0
RESIDENTIAL
1,074
1,074
1,044
COMMERCIAL
0
0
0
PUBLIC & OTHER
0
0
0
=================== ======== ======== ========

======== ======== ======== ======== ==========
PETROLEUM
BITUMINUS
IMPORT-C
COKING-C STEAM-C
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------0
0
0
0
0
2,740
45,758
11,204
34,554
150,798
0
0
0
0
129,130
0
0
0
0
21,669
0
0
0
0
-37,886
0
0
0
0
-8,555
74
0
0
0
1,316
403
0
0
0
7,119
-329
0
0
0
-5,803
-2
4,262
2,531
1,731
-4,147
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
50,020
13,735
36,285
101,526
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,808
0 -31,582
0 -31,582
-4,290
0
0
0
0
-382
0
0
0
0
-136
0
0
0
0
0
-------- -------- -------- -------- ---------2,812
18,438
13,735
4,703
96,718
2,781
18,438
13,735
4,703
50,905
0
0
0
0
2,755
0
0
0
0
68
2,782
18,438
13,735
4,703
45,767
0
33
0
33
686
0
104
0
104
998
0
0
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
975
0
119
0
119
38,997
0
3,173
0
3,173
1,017
714
13,735
13,735
0
603
0
0
0
0
130
0
0
0
0
667
2,068
1,275
0
1,275
741
0
0
0
0
903
0
0
0
0
2,315
0
0
0
0
34,982
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
0
0
27,791
0
0
0
0
4,092
0
0
0
0
2,819
31
0
0
0
6,124
0
0
0
0
3,313
0
0
0
0
1,393
======== ======== ======== ======== ==========

Primary
Energy

Petroleum
Products
(Energy)

Petroleum
Products
(Non-Energy)

========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========
L N G
ENERGY-OIL
LPG
NON-ENERGY
GASOLINE KEROSENE DIESEL
B - A
B - B
B - C
JA - 1
JP - 4 AVI - G
PROPANE BUTANE
NAPHTHA SOLVENT ASPHALT LUBRICANTSPARA-WAX PET-COKE OTHER
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
518
95,479
9,752
6,038
34,061
612
111
33,108
11,797
0
0
8,940
4,137
4,803
46,380
38,113
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
29,044
94,506
9,741
5,988
33,782
612
111
32,475
11,797
0
0
3,925
989
2,936
30,698
22,432
556
3,156
2,117
15
242
2,181
0
973
10
50
280
0
0
633
0
0
0
5,015
3,147
1,868
15,681
15,681
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-31,461
-1,915
-616 -12,563
0
0
-8,824
-7,543
0
0
-74
-29
-45
-6,351
-3,281
0
-1,460
-1,401
0
-49
-161
0
-8,555
0
0
-805
-49
0
-6,707
-995
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,074
12
224
224
6
1
375
233
0
0
122
74
48
120
128
-9
-31
34
0
-3
1
134
4,667
427
615
1,309
46
4
1,802
464
0
0
637
376
261
1,816
1,597
27
68
107
2
6
8
1,381
-3,593
-415
-391
-1,085
-40
-3
-1,428
-231
0
0
-515
-302
-213
-1,696
-1,469
-36
-99
-73
-2
-9
-7
-1,247
-3,121
11
-198
-71
-217
165
-2,785
-26
0
0
496
-329
825
-1,523
-207
24
1
-8
0
-37
-1,296
659
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------53,416
7,859
5,448
20,847
353
277
15,166
3,466
0
0
9,484
3,853
5,631
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
30,355
-4,672
0
-111
-20
0
0
-4,541
0
0
0
-136
-132
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -30,355
-4,289
0
-94
-19
0
0
-4,176
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -10,866
-382
0
-17
0
0
0
-366
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-890
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-135
-131
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -18,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-298
---------- --------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- -------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ------------------------------------------------- --------48,744
7,859
5,338
20,827
353
277
10,625
3,466
0
0
9,348
3,721
5,627
38,626
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
153
724
0
10,479
272
758
2,806
199
184
6,259
2
0
0
2,084
1,226
858
38,342
34,754
571
1,667
742
15
125
468
0
2,749
196
416
1,898
73
70
96
0
0
0
7
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
3
28
13
1
15
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,062
62
301
496
79
98
6,024
2
0
0
2,030
1,172
858
36,675
34,754
571
0
742
15
125
468
0
625
1
19
19
6
11
570
0
0
0
23
23
0
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
0
992
1
26
17
4
17
928
0
0
0
5
4
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
49
0
3
8
1
1
37
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
967
0
12
8
17
7
923
0
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
8
36
146
5
13
1,566
0
0
0
1,495
891
604
35,727
34,754
571
0
1
13
0
389
0
834
0
12
69
6
15
732
0
0
0
67
67
0
115
0
0
0
0
0
115
0
0
539
0
4
4
2
1
528
0
0
0
64
42
22
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
110
0
7
5
2
5
92
0
0
0
20
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
596
44
45
107
26
16
356
2
0
0
70
65
5
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
453
6
133
107
11
13
182
0
0
0
277
51
226
11
0
0
0
0
0
9
2
0
123
1
4
6
1
0
111
0
0
0
0
0
0
780
0
0
0
741
2
0
37
0
608
13
38
386
33
15
123
0
0
0
40
40
0
1,667
0
0
1,667
0
0
0
0
0
30,278
7,512
12
16,301
130
36
3,476
2,810
0
0
4,704
2
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
281
0
0
280
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23,087
7,512
10
15,537
5
0
22
0
0
0
4,704
1
4,703
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,091
0
1
478
124
36
3,453
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,819
0
1
6
0
0
0
2,810
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,929
4
3,178
1,073
6
12
657
0
0
0
1,189
1,108
81
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
1,686
6
1,299
125
14
38
202
2
0
0
1,350
1,364
-14
277
0
0
0
0
0
28
249
0
1,372
66
91
521
4
7
32
651
0
0
21
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
========== ========= ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ======== ======== ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ================================================= =========

Conversion
Sector

Final
Energy

Elect.
City-Gas

========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
THERMAL FIREWOOD
CITY-GAS
ELECTRIC ENERGY
THOU.TOE
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------0
1,297
36,695
0
0
3,961
17,811
-1,297 -36,695
28,588
1,530
-65
-272
-1,297 -36,695
31,336
841
-65
-77
0
0
0
667
0
18,532
0
0
0
0
0
-373
0
0
-2,748
22
0
--------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------17,811
0
0
28,588
1,530
3,896
4,656
0
0
14,346
0
3,222
27
0
0
603
0
0
0
0
0
113
0
0
4,628
0
0
13,630
0
3,222
262
0
0
643
0
0
398
0
0
1,120
0
0
9
0
0
129
0
0
75
0
0
833
0
0
450
0
0
2,923
0
0
356
0
0
845
0
0
972
0
0
2,419
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
948
0
0
4,535
0
0
1,157
0
0
184
0
3,222
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
339
0
0
224
0
13
0
0
0
224
0
0
339
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,524
0
0
4,375
1,358
89
2,979
0
0
7,858
133
34
313
0
0
1,785
39
538
========= ========= ========= ========= ========= =========

=========
TOTAL
THOU.TOE
--------43,745
228,340
129,130
21,669
-37,886
-8,555
2,147
12,604
-10,457
831
--------228,622
-57,768
-53,784
-682
96
-3,397
--------170,854
94,366
3,385
181
88,484
1,624
2,619
187
1,883
42,490
5,394
18,457
130
6,150
8,646
903
2,315
35,559
505
28,144
4,092
2,819
22,544
14,317
4,068
=========

21

China’s Earthquake Zone vs. the Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue circles are the seismic zone, and
their radius is 200km (Left).
The distribution of Nuclear Reactors in China (Right).
Source: : Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 2011.3. Available at www.eq-igl.ac.cn.
:
WNA, Nuclear Power in China

22

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China(Planned)
160m

200m

Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

Pengze Nuclear Power Station
1.0GW*4

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant
with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.
Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

23

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)
Source: : Eunju Min, et al., The Journal of Energy and Environment , Vol. 32, No. 1&2, pp.1-32, 2012,

24

Energy System Analysis vs. Integrated Assessment Model

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

25

Integration Discussed by IPCC
Chapters
13 - 16

International governance
Regional governance
National and local governance
Individual and firm perspective

Issues of risk &
uncertainty
Chapters
2 - 4

Economic &
ethical
concepts and
methods

Integrated
view:
Chapters
5 & 6

Sustainable
development &
equity

출처 : LAM3, IPCC, Nov. 2012

26

Introduction
Global integrated assessment
model of interactions among the
global economic, energy,
agricultural and land use, climate,
and technology systems.
IA models are not predictive but should be used as research
and analysis tools to aid
understanding of the complexities
and interactions.
GCAM was one of four models
chosen to create the
representative concentration
pathways for the IPCC’s AR5

South Korea should be a separate region
Long-term model (runs through 2095)
Dynamic and recursive model
Technologically detailed

27

GCAM(PNNL)
에너지 시스템, 농업&토지이용, 기후, 경제 부문이 연결되어 있음
에너지와 농업&토지이용의 공급측면에 있어 여러 기술의 적용이 가능
전력 부문에 있어 화석연료 이외에 원자력, 수력, 태양에너지, 풍력, 지
열을 포함하고 각각의 원별 시장에서 건물, 산업, 수송 부문으로의 투입
구조
Energy Demand is determined by the GDP and the energy
demand technologies
Energy Supply is determined by the Resource Bases and
Energy Conversion Technologies
The flow of energy from supply side (primary and secondary
fuels) and end- use sectors (buildings, industrial,
transportation)

자료 : Calvin K., 2010

28

건물부문 모형구성도 및 국내모형 세분화 가능성
주거용건물

주거용 건물
상가내주택*
다세대
연립
단독주택(일반)
단독주택(다가구)
단독주택(영업겸용)
아파트
기타

상업, 공공,대형
아파트
회사사옥
사무실,오피스텔
임대전포, 상가
호텔
백화점
병원
정부기관
국공영기관
공공단체 문화기관
학교
연구소, 학원
종교단체
전화국

건물특성

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

가전제품

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

난방기술

냉방

냉방기술

급탕

급탕기술

조명

조명기술

사무기기

기반기술

기타

기반기술

난방

냉방

연탄 등
전기보일러
LPG 보일러
기름보일러
중앙난방
지역난방
도시가스

냉방으로는
분류되어 있
지 않고, 가
전제품 중
에어컨으로
분류되어 있
음.

Heating
Gas furnance
Gas heatpump
Electric furnance
Electric heatpump
Fuel oil furnance
Wood furnance
Cooling
Air conditioning
Water heating
Gas waterheating
Gas heatpump water heater
Electric resistance water
heater
Electric heatpump water
heater
Fuel oil heater

상업, 공공, 대형
난방

냉방

증기보일러
온수보일러
흡수식
지역난방
축열기
온풍기
전기난방
소형열병합
GHP
BHP

터보식
왕복동식
스크류식
흡수딕
지역냉방
빙축열
패키지 룸에어
콘
소형열병합
GHP
EHP

한국의 주거용,과 상업, 공공, 대형
건물의 급탕은 별도로 분류되어 있
지 않음.

에너지서비스 수요

한국과 미국 Appliances
TV’s
Cooking equipment
Set-top boxes
Furnance Fans
Personal computers
Ceiling fans
Microwave ovens
Audio equipment
VCRs
Portable electric spas
Coffee machines
Cordless phones
Power tools
Security systems
Cell phones
Vacuum cleaners
Refrigeration
Distribution transformers
Ventilations
Water distribution
Water treatment
Cooking
X-Ray
Non-road electric vehicles
Elevators
Coffee makers
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Computed Tomography
Water punfication
Escalators

조명등
백열구(소켓형)
형광램프(삼파장)
형광등(막대형)
형광등(핀방식)
할로겐

미국은 주거/상업용 제품의 구분이
있으나, 한국은 주거용 제품만을
제시하고 있음.

TV
브라운관
프로젝션
PDP
LCD
LED
3D TV
주방용품
가스(오븐)레인지
전기인덕션
전자레인지
전기밥솥
전기포트
식기세척기
냉온정수기
에어컨
벽걸이(분리)형
스탠드형
멀티형
청소기
진공형
로봇형
스팀형
PC
노트북
데스크탑
르린터
냉장고
일반형
양문형
김치냉장고
세탁기
드럼식
회전날개식
세탁봉방식

연탄

석탄

실내등유
보일러등유
경유
B-A(경질중유)
B-C(중질중유)

석유

프로판
부탄
도시가스

가스

일반전력
심야전력
자가발전

전력

지역난방
지역냉방

열에너지

숯열탄

기타

태양열
태양광
지열
기타
바이오매스(미국)

신재생에
너지

기타
가습기
공기청정기
비데
선풍기
전기온돌침대

미국과 한국의 주거용/상업용(상업,공공,대형) 건물의 에너지수요측면의 세부기술

연료

주: 1)아파트 단지는 층수, 건물동수, 세대수, 분양면적, 단지내 건물 연면적, 준공연도 기준으로 세분화할 수 있음.
2)상업공공부문에서는 연료사용용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 급탕용, 취사용, 기타 등으로 구분하고 있음, 전력사용량은 개별 표로 작성하고 있으며 전력은 용도별로 난방용, 냉방용, 일반동력용, 조명용, 사무기기 및 기타로 구분
함, 신재생에너지는 태양열, 태양광, 지열, 기타 등이 포함됨.
* 인구주택총조사에서는 비주거용건물내주택으로 정의
출처 : 2011 에너지총조사, 2005 인구주택총조사

Schematics of GCAM Framework

출처 : Calvin, K., Regional Modeling in GCAM, GCAM Community Modeling Meeting November 29-30, 2011

30

Flow of Works

1st & 2nd Year
3rd Year
- one stand
alone program

31

Potential Analysis for Buiding Sector Efficiency Improvement
Building Energy Efficiency Related Policy Analysis










Rebates
Priority Purchasing through the Public Procurement Service
Designation of Best Procured Products
Mandatory Use of High Efficiency Appliances by Public Organizations
Buildings Codes
Standards and Performance of Eco-Friendly Houses
Tax Breaks on Energy Saving Investments
Financing Rational Energy Utilization Fund
Testing Fee Waiver

Assessment of technological change (reference vs advanced)
Climate change (global warming) effect on building (by various
scenario of HDD and CDD)
More detailed analysis of energy system on service-level and/or
region-level
Carbon price and/or carbon cap