Transcript ｽﾗｲﾄﾞ ﾀｲﾄﾙなし - Taiwan Islands Net
Slide 1
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 2
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 3
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 4
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 5
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 6
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 7
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 8
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 9
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 10
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 11
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 12
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 13
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 14
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 15
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 16
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 17
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 18
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 19
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 20
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 21
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 2
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 3
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 4
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 5
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 6
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 7
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 8
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 9
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 10
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 11
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 12
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 13
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 14
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 15
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 16
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 17
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 18
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 19
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 20
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8
Slide 21
Alternative Futures of
Small Island Society
in the Era of Globalization:
A Case from Republic of Palau
Takashi Mita
Ph. D. Candidate in Political Science
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa
Republic of •
Palau •
(Belau, 帛琉)
Population =19,129
(Census 2000)
Size = 190 sq. mi.
• Political Status:
Freely Associated
State with US (1994)
• Per capita GDP =
US$6,000
• Major Income
Sources: Compact
Money from US,
Tourism
Global Dynamics
Observed in Palau
•
•
•
•
•
Foreign Investments (Taiwan, Japan, etc.)
Financial Assistance (US), Aid (Japan, Taiwan)
Guest Workers from Asia (Philippines, China, South Asia)
International Tourists (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, US, Europe)
Industrial Commodities (US, Japan, Taiwan, etc.)
Futures Studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Trend Analysis (Present and Past)
Forecasting Futures Based on Trend
Not Prediction, but Forecasting
Deductive Forecasting Method
Alternative Futures Model
Scenario Making
Factors of Changes
(Past and Present)
• Colonial Development
• Decolonization Process
• Global Dynamics
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
–
Foreign Assistance (More? Less?)
Tourism (Increase? Decrease?)
Investment (Increase? Decrease?)
End of Compact money in 2009 (End? Renegotiation?)
Foreign Guest Workers (More? Less?)
Tourists from Taiwan
Guest Workers from Philippines
Factors of Changes (Future)
–
–
–
–
Compact Road
Capital Relocation
US Military Bases?
Change of Lifestyle
Circle Island 53-mile Compact Road
New Capitol Building
Alternative Futures Models
1. Continued Growth Model
2. Collapsed Society Model
3. Disciplined Society Model
4. Transformational Society
Model
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
1. Continued Growth Model
–
–
–
–
external sources of income (compact money, aid)
foreign investment, tourists, guest workers
mass tourism, mass production, imported goods
westernization of culture
• Modernization Theory
• Neo-Liberal Globalization
Discorse
(eg. Guam, CNMI in 1990s)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
2. Collapse Model
– stagnation of external sources of income
– end of compact money, aid
– withdrawal of investment, decrease of tourists
– unable to recover subsistence, poverty-stricken
– loss of indigenous culture
(eg. CNMI late 1990s-, Nauru)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
3. Disciplined Society Model
–
–
–
–
endogenous development
indigenous networks and lifestyles
indigenous political and social norms
Palauan participation in the labor force
• Sustainable Development
• Human Development
• Endogenous Development
(eg. Yap State in FSM)
Alternative Futures Scenarios
(deductive forecasting)
4. Transformational Society Model
–
–
–
–
–
Reconsideration of nation-state → Confederation?
New industries? New economic netowork?
Fewer bureaucrats?
Palauan returnees as new labor power?
Creation of regional identity?
(eg. PIF, EU, CARICOM)
Alternative Future Models of Palau
Alternative Futures of Palau
image
Continued
Growth
framework
of state
naion state, democracy foreign aid
Free
Association
with US
◎
Collapse
political government
local
economy
Regime
finance government general
◎
◎
Limitation of corrupted end of
nation state government compact
money,
financial
collapse
○
Disciplined
Society
Pre-nation
state, precolonial
traditional
politics
◎
inefficiency,
high cost,
collapse or
disfunction
○
economic
growth by
foreign
investment
○
revival of
income by
selfordinary tax, village,
sufficiency,
centralization subsistence
austerity
○
confederatio new regime cut of cost
n
by
confederatio
n
◎
stagnation and
withdrawal of
foreign
investment
○
regulaton
◎
assigning
function to
states under
loose tie
tourism
deregulation dependency mass
of foreign
on foreign
tourism
investment labors
laws
○
stagnant of
investment,
overdevelopment,
wealth leakage,
collapse of
labor
power
new
new
economic
economic
network
network
among
Pacific Island
◎
unable to
decrease
employ foreign of tourists
workers
because of
shortage of
money
○
labor by
Palauans
under national
gov
○
Transformational
Society
decentralizatio
n of
government to
local
jurisdictions
foreign
investment
dependency mass
on imported fisheries,
food
modern
fisheries
◎
unable to
purchase
imported
food
◎
agriculture
import of
agricultural
products
◎
overfishing, unable to
depletion of purchase
resources
imported
products
○
culture
westernizatio
n of culure
and values
◎
clash and
loss of
culture,
value,
identity
○
subsistence,
selfsufficiency,
domestic
production
restoration of
Palauan
traditional
culture
○
ecotourism,
cultural
tourism
○
◎indicates that we have strong trend today
○indicates that we have some trend today
fisheries
control of subsistence, small-scale
incoming selffisheries,
visitors
sufficiency selfconsumption
○
Palauan
returnees as
new labor
power
food
general
industrializati aquaculture, export of
creation of
on, export
aquafarming, value added regional
breeding
products
colture and
identity
Palauan Visions of Futures
Visions Leaders
– President Remengesau Jr.
• continued growth + disciplined society
– High Chief Ibedul, High Chief Reklai
• disciplined society + concerned on collapse
– Legislators
• disciplined society + continued growth + concerned
on collapse
– Economic Leaders
• continued growth + disciplined society
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Status
Political Status - Future
Territorial
Status
10%
Total
Independence
29%
Other
1%
Free
Association
60%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Future Political Framework
Confedera
tion
9.9%
Traditiona
l Leaders
26.4%
Foreign
Control
2.2%
Others
1.1%
Elected
Leaders
60.4%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Preferred Economic Future
Subsistence
13.2%
Others
3.3%
Growth w/
Foreign
Money
33.0%
Regional
Cooperation
17.6%
Selfsufficiency
33.0%
Palauan Visions of Futures
(Visions of Ordinary People)
Attitude toward foreign guest workers
More workers
13.2%
Status quo
16.5%
Fewer
Workers
70.3%
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Continued Growth Model
Possibility and signs of Collapsed Society
Seeking Disciplined Society
Potential of Transformation Model
140
6000
120
5000
100
4000
80
3000
60
2000
40
1000
20
(US$)
7000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Per Capita GDP 5085 5403 5175 4639 5043 5529 6152 6305 6396 6063 6179 6111 6094
76.9 83.9 82.5 75.9 84.6 95.2 108.2 113.2 117.3 113.5 117.2 120.8 118.9
Total GDP
•
(2001, 2002 Estimate)
0
(Million US$)
• Total GDP/Per Capita GDP (1990-2002)
• Palau Trade Statistics (1991-2003)
（US$million）
140
Exports ($M)
Imports ($M)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Exports ($M)
26.9
17.7
12.6
13.9
13.9
11.8
11.1
11.7
12.2
9.0
9.0
12.3
Imports ($M)
38.1
42.2
44.2
60.4
72.4
69.3
65.9
104.1
123.7
95.7
86.2
108.8