Slide 1

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 2

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 3

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 4

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 5

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 6

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 7

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 8

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 9

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 10

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 11

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 12

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 13

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 14

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 15

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 16

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 17

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 18

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 19

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 20

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 21

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 22

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 23

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 24

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 25

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 26

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 27

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 28

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 29

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 30

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 31

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 32

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 33

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 34

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 35

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 36

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 37

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 38

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 39

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 40

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 41

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 42

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 43

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 44

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 45

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 46

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 47

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 48

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 49

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 50

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 51

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 52

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 53

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 54

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 55

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 56

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 57

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 58

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 59

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 60

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 61

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 62

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 63

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 64

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers


Slide 65

DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers

Today’s Journey

1. SA and the World

5 mins

2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)

30 mins

3. Food Profiles

10 mins

Journey with consumers as their diet changes

World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry

World Population
2000 to 2050

Total Population Grows from

9,3 Billion

TO

6,1 Billion

2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4

5

6

102
Indonesia

94 South

69 Brazil

Africa

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed

1.2 Billion

1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM

4.9 billion
TO

8.2 billion

2000

2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone

2

3

143 Zambia 115 India

4
102
Indonesia

5

94 South

Africa

6
69 Brazil

7
55 Russia

8

9

39 Czech.

20 Italy

10
3 Canada

LSM 1

LSM 2

1

2

145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir

LSM 3

3

113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan

LSM 4

4

100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia

LSM 5

5

81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia

94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa

LSM 6

6

65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay

LSM 7

7

50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia

LSM 8

8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia

LSM 9

9

17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea

LSM10

10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK

Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service

16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area

Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989

R 15,000

R 10,000

R 5,692
R 5,000

R 2,039

National Average R2,790

R 1,056
R0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Total Households By Level
2007

Millions of Houses
4

3.5

Total 11,3m

3.1
2.9

3

2

1.7

1

26%

28%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

The Consumer “Onion”

Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8

50

+0.2%

48.6
+0.7%

45

TH E R U L E O F 7 0

ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE

40

70
4%
17.5

70
5%
14.0

70
6%
11.7

70
7%
10.0

70
8%
8.8

70
9%
7.8

70
10%
7.0

70
11%
6.4

70
12%
5.8

70
13%
5.4

70
14%
5.0

35

2025

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

25

1985

ACTUAL

2015

30

+2.3%

Based on CARE Figures

Millions

HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025

7
6

5.6

11.6% HIV POSITIVE

5

4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR

1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR

3

STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE

2
1

2025

2015

2008

FORECAST

2005

1995

0

1985

ACTUAL

Based on CARE Figures

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000

770,932

800,000

NON AIDS

700,000
600,000

AIDS

500,000

TOTAL
2011

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000

FORECAST

ACTUAL

2025

2015

2008

2005

1995

1985

0

Based on CARE Figures

2011

Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025

ACTUAL

2007

FORECAST

Woman’s Vote
1893

New Zealand

1906

Finland

1913

Norway

1918

Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*

1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey

1920

1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka

Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)

1921

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**

1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho

1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait

South African Population
Gender

FEMALE

25.1M
51.6%

23.5M
48.4%

MALE

Based on CARE Figures

Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100

R 90
R 80

R 64
R 60

R 40

R 20

R0

MALE

FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS

CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

2

3

6

17

33

0%

25%

3.2

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

GETTING BETTER

4

44

50%

75%

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE

REMAINED SAME STILL BAD

1

REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD

2

3

43

0%

25%

1.9
4

34

50%

GETTING BETTER

15

75%

8

100%

PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006

South African Population
Community Size

RURAL

39%

61%

URBAN

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE

MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE

MALE
85+

80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74

65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)

31%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4

0-14

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE

MALE

85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74

(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)

28%
3,000,000

2,500,000

200,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Based on CARE Figures

HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35

3
2.61
2.33

2
1.45
1.16

1

0.223

0

30%

R1-R1,399

24%

R1,400R2,999

21%

R3,000R6,999

13%

10%

R7,000R11,999

R12,000R29,999

2%

R30,000+

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH

R 50,000

R 43,210
R 40,000

R 30,000

R 18,769

R 20,000

R 9,727

R 10,000

R 5,188
R 895

R 2,270
National Median
R3,029

R0

R1R1,399

R1,400R2,999

R3,000R6,999

R7,000R11,999

R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999

MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005

Percent
80

Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79

62
60

45
40

National Average 45%

24
20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006

South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%

12m

10m

EMPLOYED
39%

9m

UNEMPLOYED
29%

SOURCE: AMPS 2007

South African Population
Employment

Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60

(compared to other SA households)
53

40

30

20

9

National Average 14%

4
0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77

80

71

National Average 69%

62

60

40

37

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80

69

67

60

51

National Average 52%
40

35

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

81
80

76

61
60

National Average 62%
46

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100

83
80

79

79

80

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

National Average 79%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100

87

86
80

National Average 85%

78

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100

86
82

81

84

National Average 84%

80

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100

85

83

80

National Average 83%

80

81

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100

77

80

70

76

69 National Average 75%

60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100

80

74

72

70

73

National Average 72%
60

40

20

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006

Percentage

Victim of Crime
Past 12 months

30

26
22
20
18
16

National Average 17%

14
Chances
of it happening to You this year

1 in 7
10

R1-R1,399

1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005

The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS

- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL

A Better Life For All

13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100

79
72

75

56
50

56
45

37
32
25

15

0

Microwave

Electric
Stove

Fridge

TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS

NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007

Poly. (2004)

Poly. (2005)

Poly. (2006)

Poly. (2007)

Thousands
1,600

1,200

800

400

LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007

Millions
4

Total 11m

3.5
3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.9

3

2

1.7

1.6

1

0

29%

26%

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

29%

31%
LEVEL 3

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

14%

15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

4

Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4

3

2.7

2

1.6

1.0
1

11%

31%

39%

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

0

LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2007

Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%

12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

75%

50%

25

26

12
26

26

14

15

16

17

18

28

31

33

35

37

27

35

31

39

28

29

29

2003

2005

LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)

29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)

26

23

19

16

13

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

0%

2001

LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)

LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)

28

25%

37

19

YEAR

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

33

30
24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

People vs. Income
40

Percentage

30

12% of people have
47% of the money

54% of people
have
13% of the money

33

24

22

21
18

20

14

13
9

10

4

2

0

R1-R1,399

R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

R30,000+

SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007

2005

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers

Percentage

64

63

60
60

National Incidence 54%
41
40

20

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LEVEL 3
LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

30
30

30

28

20

12
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage
43

40

28

30

19

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
66

66
61

60

60

National Incidence 63%

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

35

30

28

27

20

10
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

SOURCE:AMPS 2005

Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

40

32
28

30

26

20

14
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers

Percentage
64

61

59

60

National Incidence
57%
51

40

20

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage

Purchaser Profile

40

33
30

28

28

20

11
10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50

Percentage

39

40

30

23

23

20

16

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003

Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50

Consumer Incidence

Percentage

Total 10.8M consumers

40

46

45

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

37

National Incidence 35%
30

27

20

10

0

LEVEL 1
LSM 1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LEVEL 2
LSM 4

LSM 5

LSM 6

LSM 7 LSM 8

LSM 9 LSM10

Vienna Sausages
Percentage

Consumer Profile

50

40

36
30
30

20

19
15

10

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4

SOURCE: AMPS 2005

Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands

Percentage

ESKORT

ENTERPRISE

20

BOKKIE

19
18
16
15

16

15

15

10

9

9

8
7

7
5

5

0

LEVEL 1

LEVEL 2

LEVEL 3

LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005

LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1

Hotplate
4.2

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Geyser
7.8

DVD
7.6

Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0

LSM 5

LSM 6

Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6

LSM 7

Deep
Freeze
8.5

PC
Laptop
9.3

Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9

LSM 8

Dishwasher
9.5

Tumble
Drier
9.5

LSM 9

LSM10

This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9

Chicken
Heavy
5.7

Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1

Mealie
Meal
4.6

LSM1

LSM 2

LSM 3

LSM 4

Rice
5.1

LSM 5

Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6

Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5

LSM 6

LSM 7

LSM 8

LSM 9

LSM10

SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE

May you Grow
with your Customers