Transcript 1 - South African Feedlot Association
Slide 1
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 2
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 3
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 4
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 5
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 6
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 7
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 8
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 9
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 10
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 11
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 12
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 13
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 14
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 15
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 16
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 17
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 18
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 19
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 20
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 21
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 22
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 23
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 24
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 25
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 26
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 27
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 28
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 29
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 30
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 31
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 32
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 33
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 34
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 35
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 36
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 37
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 38
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 39
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 40
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 41
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 42
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 43
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 44
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 45
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 46
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 47
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 48
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 49
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 50
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 51
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 52
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 53
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 54
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 55
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 56
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 57
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 58
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 59
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 60
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 61
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 62
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 63
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 64
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 65
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 2
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 3
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 4
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 5
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 6
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 7
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 8
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 9
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 10
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 11
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 12
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 13
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 14
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 15
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 16
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 17
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 18
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 19
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 20
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 21
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 22
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 23
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 24
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 25
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 26
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 27
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 28
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 29
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 30
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 31
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 32
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 33
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 34
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 35
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 36
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 37
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 38
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 39
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 40
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 41
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 42
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 43
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 44
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 45
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 46
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 47
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 48
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 49
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 50
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 51
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 52
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 53
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 54
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 55
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 56
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 57
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 58
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 59
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 60
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 61
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 62
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 63
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 64
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers
Slide 65
DUST TO DIAMONDS
Walking the
Path to Prosperity
With Customers
Today’s Journey
1. SA and the World
5 mins
2. The Changing Landscape (Macro & Mind)
30 mins
3. Food Profiles
10 mins
Journey with consumers as their diet changes
World Population
6,7 Billion
850M Hungry
World Population
2000 to 2050
Total Population Grows from
9,3 Billion
TO
6,1 Billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
5
6
102
Indonesia
94 South
69 Brazil
Africa
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
Developed world’s
population stays at
Developed
1.2 Billion
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
World Population
2000 to 2050
THE POPULATION OF THE LESS DEVELOPED
REGIONS GROWS FROM
4.9 billion
TO
8.2 billion
2000
2050
1
162 Sierra
Leone
2
3
143 Zambia 115 India
4
102
Indonesia
5
94 South
Africa
6
69 Brazil
7
55 Russia
8
9
39 Czech.
20 Italy
10
3 Canada
LSM 1
LSM 2
1
2
145 Senegal
129 Nepal
146 Angola
132 Bangladesh
151 Malawi
133 Yemen
152 Rwanda
136 Nigeria
157 Mozambique139 Mauritania
158 Ethiopia
141 Uganda
160 Burundi
143 Zambia
162 Sierra Leone144 Côte d’Ivoir
LSM 3
3
113 Swaziland
114 Botswana
115 India
117 Zimbabwe
119 Ghana
120 Lesotho
123 Kenya
127 Pakistan
LSM 4
4
100 Algeria
101 Vietnam
102 Indonesia
104 Bolivia
105 Egypt
106 Nicaragua
108 Guatemala
111 Namibia
LSM 5
5
81 Sri Lanka
87 China
88 Jordan
89 Tunisia
94 SA
95 El Salvador
96 Samoa
LSM 6
6
65 Lebanon
66 Thailand
68 Saudi Arabia
69 Brazil
70 Philippines
74 Ukraine
76 Jamaica
80 Paraguay
LSM 7
7
50 Latvia
51 Mexico
52 Panama
55 Russia
56 Malaysia
57 Bulgaria
61 Venezuela
62 Colombia
LSM 8
8
34 Argentina
35 Slovakia
36 Hungary
3 Poland
39 Chile
43 Kuwait
47 Lithuania
46 Croatia
LSM 9
9
17 Germany
18 Ireland
20 Italy
21 Spain
22 Israel
23 Greece
26 Singapore
27 Korea
LSM10
10
1 Norway
2 Australia
3 Canada
4 Sweden
6 USA
9 Japan
11 Switzerland
14 UK
Living Standards Measure
1. Hot running water
2. Fridge/freezer
3. Microwave oven
4. Flush toilet in house or on plot
5. VCR in household
6. Vacuum cleaner/floor polisher
7. Have a washing machine
8. Have a computer at home
9. Have an electric stove
10. Have TV set (s)
11. Have a tumble dryer
12. Have a Telkom telephone
13. Hi-fi or music centre
14. Built-in kitchen sink
15. Home security service
16. Have a deep freeze
17. Water in home or on stand
18. Have MNet and/or DStv
19. Have a dishwasher
20. Metropolitan dweller
21. Have a sewing machine
22. DVD player
23. House/cluster/ town house
24. 1/more motor vehicles
25. No domestic worker
26. No cell phone in household
27. 1 Cell phone in household
28. None or only one radio
29. Living in a non-urban area
Lifestyle levels
Median Monthly Household Income
R 14,989
R 15,000
R 10,000
R 5,692
R 5,000
R 2,039
National Average R2,790
R 1,056
R0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Total Households By Level
2007
Millions of Houses
4
3.5
Total 11,3m
3.1
2.9
3
2
1.7
1
26%
28%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
The Consumer “Onion”
Total South African Population
1985
2025
Millions
55
51.8
50
+0.2%
48.6
+0.7%
45
TH E R U L E O F 7 0
ANNUAL G RO W T H RAT E
YEARS FO R M ARKET T O DO UBLE
40
70
4%
17.5
70
5%
14.0
70
6%
11.7
70
7%
10.0
70
8%
8.8
70
9%
7.8
70
10%
7.0
70
11%
6.4
70
12%
5.8
70
13%
5.4
70
14%
5.0
35
2025
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
25
1985
ACTUAL
2015
30
+2.3%
Based on CARE Figures
Millions
HIV Positive Population
1985 - 2025
7
6
5.6
11.6% HIV POSITIVE
5
4 CUSTOMERS & STAFF ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POPULATION
IF YOUR
1 OF EVERY 9 OF YOUR
3
STAFF & CUSTOMERS ARE HIV POSITIVE
2
1
2025
2015
2008
FORECAST
2005
1995
0
1985
ACTUAL
Based on CARE Figures
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
Thousands
900,000
770,932
800,000
NON AIDS
700,000
600,000
AIDS
500,000
TOTAL
2011
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
FORECAST
ACTUAL
2025
2015
2008
2005
1995
1985
0
Based on CARE Figures
2011
Annual Deaths
1985 - 2025
ACTUAL
2007
FORECAST
Woman’s Vote
1893
New Zealand
1906
Finland
1913
Norway
1918
Austria, Canada, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, United Kingdom*
1920 United States
1930 South Africa (Whites), Turkey
1920
1931 Chile, Portugal, Spain, Sri Lanka
Albania, Canada (to stand for election)*, Czech
Republic, Iceland**, Slovakia, United States of
America (to vote)
1921
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium (to stand for
election)*, Georgia1, Sweden**
1932 Brazil, Maldives, Thailand, Uruguay
1944 Bulgaria, France, Jamaica
1947 Argentina, Japan, Malta, Mexico, Pakistan, Singapore
1954 Belize, Colombia, Ghana
1965 Botswana, Lesotho
1971 Switzerland
1972 Bangladesh
1984 Liechtenstein
2005 Kuwait
South African Population
Gender
FEMALE
25.1M
51.6%
23.5M
48.4%
MALE
Based on CARE Figures
Average Monthly Cell Expenditure
Male vs. Female
Rands per Month
R 100
R 90
R 80
R 64
R 60
R 40
R 20
R0
MALE
FEMALE
SOURCE:AMPS2005
2007
SOURCE:AMPS
CHANGE BAROMETER
GENDER EQUALITY
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
2
3
6
17
33
0%
25%
3.2
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
GETTING BETTER
4
44
50%
75%
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
CHANGE BAROMETER
STANDARD OF TAXI DRIVING
GETTING WORSE
REMAINED SAME STILL BAD
1
REMAINED SAME STILL GOOD
2
3
43
0%
25%
1.9
4
34
50%
GETTING BETTER
15
75%
8
100%
PERCENTAGE
FutureFact 2006
South African Population
Community Size
RURAL
39%
61%
URBAN
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
1985
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to 84
1.9M
75 to60+
79
70 to74
656%
to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
40% CHILDREN
5 to 9
0 to 4
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2008
FEMALE
MALE
85+
80 to60+
84
3.5M
75 to 79
7%
70
to74
65 to 69
(+86%UP
60 to ON
64 ‘85)
31%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
CHILDREN
0 to 4
0-14
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
South African Population Age Pyramid
2025
FEMALE
MALE
85+
5.4M
60+
80 to 84
75
to 79
10%
70 to74
(+56%UP
65 to ON
69 ‘07)
28%
3,000,000
2,500,000
200,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
60 to 64
55 to 59
50-54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35-39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
CHILDREN
10 to 14
5 to 9
0-14
0 to 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Based on CARE Figures
HOUSEHOLDS
BY INCOME GROUP
MILLIONS
4
3.35
3
2.61
2.33
2
1.45
1.16
1
0.223
0
30%
R1-R1,399
24%
R1,400R2,999
21%
R3,000R6,999
13%
10%
R7,000R11,999
R12,000R29,999
2%
R30,000+
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Customer Journey’s
EVERYONE DREAMS OF THE SUMMIT, VERY FEW MAKE IT
MEDIAN RANDS PER MONTH
R 50,000
R 43,210
R 40,000
R 30,000
R 18,769
R 20,000
R 9,727
R 10,000
R 5,188
R 895
R 2,270
National Median
R3,029
R0
R1R1,399
R1,400R2,999
R3,000R6,999
R7,000R11,999
R12,000- R30,000+
R29,999
MONTHLY HH INCOME GROUP
SOURCE:AMPS
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
2005
Percent
80
Population Variance
1. Plan to get a job next year
79
62
60
45
40
National Average 45%
24
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:FF 2006
South African Population
Employment
STUDENT,
RETIRED,
HOUSEWIFE
32%
12m
10m
EMPLOYED
39%
9m
UNEMPLOYED
29%
SOURCE: AMPS 2007
South African Population
Employment
Population Variance
3. Not at all well of
Percent
60
(compared to other SA households)
53
40
30
20
9
National Average 14%
4
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
8. In most ways my life is close to Ideal
77
80
71
National Average 69%
62
60
40
37
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
9. Have dreams, but feel I’ll never achieve them
80
69
67
60
51
National Average 52%
40
35
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Variance
10. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
81
80
76
61
60
National Average 62%
46
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Black Population Commonality
7. Complete Confidence in South Africa
100
83
80
79
79
80
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
National Average 79%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
1. Men and Women who do the same job
should earn the same salary
100
87
86
80
National Average 85%
78
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
2. Black and White need each other to
survive and prosper
100
86
82
81
84
National Average 84%
80
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
3. With the same education an opportunities
black people are just as competent as whites
100
85
83
80
National Average 83%
80
81
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
6. Prefer a company that focuses on customers
rather than product innovation
100
77
80
70
76
69 National Average 75%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Population Commonality*
7. Afraid and alert all the time in case
I become a victim of crime
100
80
74
72
70
73
National Average 72%
60
40
20
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
*over 55% incidence, (variance below 15 x % agree)
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE:FF 2006
Percentage
Victim of Crime
Past 12 months
30
26
22
20
18
16
National Average 17%
14
Chances
of it happening to You this year
1 in 7
10
R1-R1,399
1 in 6 1 in 6 1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 4
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
SOURCE:AMPS
2005
The Macro Environment
BAD NEWS
- AIDS
- CRIME
- UNEMPLOYMENT
GOOD NEWS
- BETTER LIFE FOR ALL
A Better Life For All
13 Year Trends
Durables in household
1994 vs. 2007
Percentage
100
79
72
75
56
50
56
45
37
32
25
15
0
Microwave
Electric
Stove
Fridge
TV Set
SOURCE:AMPS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
LSM’S 2004 VS. 2007
Poly. (2004)
Poly. (2005)
Poly. (2006)
Poly. (2007)
Thousands
1,600
1,200
800
400
LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3
Source : AMPS 2004 and 2005
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
Total Households By Level
2006 vs. 2007
Millions
4
Total 11m
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2
2.9
3
2
1.7
1.6
1
0
29%
26%
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
28%
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
29%
31%
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
14%
15%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
4
Total TV Households By Level
2007
Millions
Total 8.8M
3.4
3
2.7
2
1.6
1.0
1
11%
31%
39%
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
0
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
19%
LEVEL 4
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2007
Increasing Living Standards Forecast
100%
12
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
75%
50%
25
26
12
26
26
14
15
16
17
18
28
31
33
35
37
27
35
31
39
28
29
29
2003
2005
LEVEL 3(LSM 6-8)
29
LEVEL 1(LSM 1-3)
26
23
19
16
13
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0%
2001
LEVEL 4(LSM 9-10)
LEVEL 2(LSM 4-5)
28
25%
37
19
YEAR
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
33
30
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
People vs. Income
40
Percentage
30
12% of people have
47% of the money
54% of people
have
13% of the money
33
24
22
21
18
20
14
13
9
10
4
2
0
R1-R1,399
R1,400R3,000R7,000R12,000R2,999
R6,999
R11,999
R29,999
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
R30,000+
SOURCE:CONSUMER SCOPE based on SOURCE:AMPS
AMPS 2007
2005
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Purchaser Incidence
Total 16.1M Purchasers
Percentage
64
63
60
60
National Incidence 54%
41
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LEVEL 3
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LEVEL 4
LSM 9 LSM10
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
30
30
30
28
20
12
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh Milk Past 7 Days
Heavy (7+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
43
40
28
30
19
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
66
66
61
60
60
National Incidence 63%
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Chicken Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
35
30
28
27
20
10
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
SOURCE:AMPS 2005
Chicken Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
40
32
28
30
26
20
14
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Purchaser Incidence
Total 18.8M Purchasers
Percentage
64
61
59
60
National Incidence
57%
51
40
20
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 weeks
Percentage
Purchaser Profile
40
33
30
28
28
20
11
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Fresh red meat Past 4 Weeks
Heavy (5+) Purchaser Profile
50
Percentage
39
40
30
23
23
20
16
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2003
Vienna Sausages Past 4 weeks
50
Consumer Incidence
Percentage
Total 10.8M consumers
40
46
45
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
37
National Incidence 35%
30
27
20
10
0
LEVEL 1
LSM 1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LEVEL 2
LSM 4
LSM 5
LSM 6
LSM 7 LSM 8
LSM 9 LSM10
Vienna Sausages
Percentage
Consumer Profile
50
40
36
30
30
20
19
15
10
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
Vienna Sausages
Top 3 Brands
Percentage
ESKORT
ENTERPRISE
20
BOKKIE
19
18
16
15
16
15
15
10
9
9
8
7
7
5
5
0
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4
SOURCE: AMPS 2005
LSM Median of Appliances
The Journey
VCR
7.9
Iron
6.2
Hi Fi
Music
Centre
6.1
Hotplate
4.2
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Geyser
7.8
DVD
7.6
Electric
Electricity
Stove
(Lights) Fridge
6.6
5.5
Freezer
6.1
Kettle
6.5
TV Set
6.0
LSM 5
LSM 6
Washing
Machine
8.2
Microwave
7.6
LSM 7
Deep
Freeze
8.5
PC
Laptop
9.3
Vacuum
Cleaner/
Swimming
Polisher
Pool
9.0
9.5
Sewing
Machine
8.9
LSM 8
Dishwasher
9.5
Tumble
Drier
9.5
LSM 9
LSM10
This gives us a good indication of the appliance purchase priority as living standards increase
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
LSM Median of Food
Chicken
Ever
4.9
Chicken
Heavy
5.7
Milk
5.6
Red Meat
Ever
5.1
Mealie
Meal
4.6
LSM1
LSM 2
LSM 3
LSM 4
Rice
5.1
LSM 5
Red Meat
Heavy
6.4
Cheese
6.6
Pasta
6.2
Frozen
Veg
6.5
LSM 6
LSM 7
LSM 8
LSM 9
LSM10
SOURCE:AMPS 2006/ CONSUMERSCOPE
May you Grow
with your Customers