AgMIP: Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W. Jones, and Jerry Hatfield NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York University of.
Download ReportTranscript AgMIP: Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W. Jones, and Jerry Hatfield NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York University of.
Slide 1
AgMIP:
Agricultural Model Intercomparison and
Improvement Project
Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W. Jones, and Jerry Hatfield
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York
University of Florida, Gainesville
USDA-ARS, Ames, Iowa
September 10, 2012
Sub-Saharan Africa AgMIP Workshop
September 10-14, 2012 1
Accra, Ghana
Slide 2
AgMIP Science Teams
• Climate – Alex Ruane
• Crop Modeling – Ken Boote and Peter Thorburn
• Crop Pilot leaders – wheat, maize, rice, potato, sorghum, potato
• Economic Modeling – John Antle and Jerry
Nelson
• Information Technologies (IT) – Cheryl Porter and
Sander Janssen
• Cross-Cutting Themes
• Uncertainty (Daniel Wallach, Mike Rivington)
• Representative Agricultural Pathways (John Antle)
• Aggregation Across Scales (Frank Ewert, Andy Challinor)
• Regional Research Teams
Slide 3
What is AgMIP?
• Agricultural Model Intercomparison and
Improvement Project
• Aims to significantly advance scientific capabilities
for addressing complex Ag & food security issues
• Integrated assessments and evaluation of
adaptation practices, policies
• Targeting climate change and food security
• Global and regional scales
• Distributed project
• Funded by USDA, DFID, NOAA, USAID, ...
3
Slide 4
Why AgMIP?
Broad Societal Impact Issues: Food Security
•
•
•
•
•
•
2000
Rising Demand for Grain (Now and Future Projections)
Food and Energy Price Spikes
Increased Water Scarcity
Availability of Arable Land for Expansion of Production
Weather Extremes – Drought, Heat Waves, Floods
Climate Change, Current Trends and Projections
2008
2011
4
Slide 5
Why AgMIP?
• Food security problems presented on international news
by Fareed Zakaria (CNN) on September 9, 2012,
emphasizing that “Unless countries invest more in
agricultural research and development, ...” more food
crises are certain to happen in the future as populations
continue to increase and major droughts occur as are
happening this year in USA, Russia, India, ...
• Agricultural risks growing, including climate change
• Consistent approach needed to enable agricultural sector
analysis across relevant scales and disciplines
• Long-term process lacking for rigorous agricultural
model testing and improvement
5
Slide 6
AgMIP Initiatives – Track 2
Regional Assessment Programs
Track 1
Track 2
– Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, South America, North America, Europe,
East Asia
–
6
Slide 7
AgMIP Elements and Linkages
Cross-Cutting
Themes
Uncertainty
Contributions of
each component to
uncertainty cascade
Aggregation
Across Scales
Connecting local,
regional, and global
information
Representative
Agricultural
Pathways
Link to
RCPs (Climate)
SSPs (Economics)
Improvements and
Intercomparisons
Crop Models
Agricultural Economics Models
Scenario Methods
Spatial Aggregation Methods
Key
Interactions
Climate Scenarios
Crop Models
Agricultural
Economics Models
Assessments
Regional
Global
Water
Resources
Pests and
Diseases
Information
Technologies
Online Project
Guidance, Archive,
and Clearinghouse
Livestock
Capacity Building
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
Regional Vulnerability
Trade Policy Instruments
Technological Exchange
Slide 8
AgMIP SSA Workshop
• AgMIP Regional Research Projects
• Five projects funded in SSA and five projects in
SA by DFID (UK-AID)
• CGIAR support through financial management
(ICRISAT) and scientist participation in Regional
Research Teams (IFPRI, ICRISAT, CIAT, ILRI, IRRI,
CIMMYT)
• Also support for some scientist participation is
from the CGIAR global program – Climate Change
and Food Security (CCAFS)
Slide 9
AgMIP SSA Workshop Goals
• Build cohesiveness among SSA AgMIP teams
• Review and refine regional integrated
assessment methods and procedures
• Review and refine specific plans of each team,
aiming for unified outputs across SSA
• Develop plans for scientific outputs and for
communicating results to stakeholders
Slide 10
The Program This week
• Day 1 – Introduction of people and of Regional
Research Team programs
• Day 2 – Detailed discussions of climate,
cropping systems, economics, and IT goals and
approaches with each team
• Days 3 & 4 – Methods for implementing
AgMIP protocols for integrated assessments
• Day 5 – Refinement of Research Teams’ plans
and identification of gaps that need filling
10
Slide 11
Guide for Regional Integrated Assessments:
Handbook of Methods and Procedures
11
Slide 12
Thank You
Cynthia Rosenzweig and Granddaughter - Livia
12
Slide 13
Mobilizing agricultural scientists in
collaborative efforts to substantially improve
our capabilities to answer some of the most
complex societal problems concerning
agriculture and food security
www.agmip.org13
Slide 14
Global Pilot Crop-Climate Change Assessment
Crop Modelers Contribute
Site Results to Build
AgmIP Archive Over Time
= AgMIP Questionnaire site
= Additional possible sites
14
AgMIP:
Agricultural Model Intercomparison and
Improvement Project
Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W. Jones, and Jerry Hatfield
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York
University of Florida, Gainesville
USDA-ARS, Ames, Iowa
September 10, 2012
Sub-Saharan Africa AgMIP Workshop
September 10-14, 2012 1
Accra, Ghana
Slide 2
AgMIP Science Teams
• Climate – Alex Ruane
• Crop Modeling – Ken Boote and Peter Thorburn
• Crop Pilot leaders – wheat, maize, rice, potato, sorghum, potato
• Economic Modeling – John Antle and Jerry
Nelson
• Information Technologies (IT) – Cheryl Porter and
Sander Janssen
• Cross-Cutting Themes
• Uncertainty (Daniel Wallach, Mike Rivington)
• Representative Agricultural Pathways (John Antle)
• Aggregation Across Scales (Frank Ewert, Andy Challinor)
• Regional Research Teams
Slide 3
What is AgMIP?
• Agricultural Model Intercomparison and
Improvement Project
• Aims to significantly advance scientific capabilities
for addressing complex Ag & food security issues
• Integrated assessments and evaluation of
adaptation practices, policies
• Targeting climate change and food security
• Global and regional scales
• Distributed project
• Funded by USDA, DFID, NOAA, USAID, ...
3
Slide 4
Why AgMIP?
Broad Societal Impact Issues: Food Security
•
•
•
•
•
•
2000
Rising Demand for Grain (Now and Future Projections)
Food and Energy Price Spikes
Increased Water Scarcity
Availability of Arable Land for Expansion of Production
Weather Extremes – Drought, Heat Waves, Floods
Climate Change, Current Trends and Projections
2008
2011
4
Slide 5
Why AgMIP?
• Food security problems presented on international news
by Fareed Zakaria (CNN) on September 9, 2012,
emphasizing that “Unless countries invest more in
agricultural research and development, ...” more food
crises are certain to happen in the future as populations
continue to increase and major droughts occur as are
happening this year in USA, Russia, India, ...
• Agricultural risks growing, including climate change
• Consistent approach needed to enable agricultural sector
analysis across relevant scales and disciplines
• Long-term process lacking for rigorous agricultural
model testing and improvement
5
Slide 6
AgMIP Initiatives – Track 2
Regional Assessment Programs
Track 1
Track 2
– Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, South America, North America, Europe,
East Asia
–
6
Slide 7
AgMIP Elements and Linkages
Cross-Cutting
Themes
Uncertainty
Contributions of
each component to
uncertainty cascade
Aggregation
Across Scales
Connecting local,
regional, and global
information
Representative
Agricultural
Pathways
Link to
RCPs (Climate)
SSPs (Economics)
Improvements and
Intercomparisons
Crop Models
Agricultural Economics Models
Scenario Methods
Spatial Aggregation Methods
Key
Interactions
Climate Scenarios
Crop Models
Agricultural
Economics Models
Assessments
Regional
Global
Water
Resources
Pests and
Diseases
Information
Technologies
Online Project
Guidance, Archive,
and Clearinghouse
Livestock
Capacity Building
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
Regional Vulnerability
Trade Policy Instruments
Technological Exchange
Slide 8
AgMIP SSA Workshop
• AgMIP Regional Research Projects
• Five projects funded in SSA and five projects in
SA by DFID (UK-AID)
• CGIAR support through financial management
(ICRISAT) and scientist participation in Regional
Research Teams (IFPRI, ICRISAT, CIAT, ILRI, IRRI,
CIMMYT)
• Also support for some scientist participation is
from the CGIAR global program – Climate Change
and Food Security (CCAFS)
Slide 9
AgMIP SSA Workshop Goals
• Build cohesiveness among SSA AgMIP teams
• Review and refine regional integrated
assessment methods and procedures
• Review and refine specific plans of each team,
aiming for unified outputs across SSA
• Develop plans for scientific outputs and for
communicating results to stakeholders
Slide 10
The Program This week
• Day 1 – Introduction of people and of Regional
Research Team programs
• Day 2 – Detailed discussions of climate,
cropping systems, economics, and IT goals and
approaches with each team
• Days 3 & 4 – Methods for implementing
AgMIP protocols for integrated assessments
• Day 5 – Refinement of Research Teams’ plans
and identification of gaps that need filling
10
Slide 11
Guide for Regional Integrated Assessments:
Handbook of Methods and Procedures
11
Slide 12
Thank You
Cynthia Rosenzweig and Granddaughter - Livia
12
Slide 13
Mobilizing agricultural scientists in
collaborative efforts to substantially improve
our capabilities to answer some of the most
complex societal problems concerning
agriculture and food security
www.agmip.org13
Slide 14
Global Pilot Crop-Climate Change Assessment
Crop Modelers Contribute
Site Results to Build
AgmIP Archive Over Time
= AgMIP Questionnaire site
= Additional possible sites
14