Transcript THE CYBERNETICS OF FORESIGHT FUTURES THINKING FOR THE 21 ST CENTURY Asia-Pacific Foresight Conference 2012 16-18th November, 2012 Perth, Western Australia Russell Clemens: independent research: organisational.

THE CYBERNETICS OF
FORESIGHT
FUTURES THINKING FOR THE 21 ST CENTURY
Asia-Pacific Foresight Conference 2012
16-18th November, 2012
Perth, Western Australia
Russell Clemens: independent research: organisational anthropology
email: [email protected] / Linkedin.
Remembering . . .
STAFFORD BEER (1926 – 2002)
PIERRE WACK (1922 – 1997)
“Futurist Stafford Beer, a leading
theorist in the field of management
cybernetics, died on August 23 in Toronto
following cardiac arrest; he was 75.
Futurist; April 1998,
Vol. 32 Issue 3, p.43
Beer, who had studied philosophy and
psychology at University College in London,
pioneered the use of cybernetics for modelling
management and operational systems in the steel
industry. He is credited with solving complex
problems in production, marketing, finance,
personnel, and other areas.
In 1986 he joined fellow futurists Isaac Asimov, Alvin
Toffler, Al Gore Jr., and others at the World Future
Society's conference in New York, offering his
invaluable insights on crisis management and
conflict resolution.”
(FUTURIST UPDATE, News & Previews from the World Future Society,
October 2002, www.wfs.org/futupoct02.htm)
FUTURISTS - Past
Obituary
“Announces the death of Pierre Wack, a
pioneer of scenario planning, on December 22,
1997.
Comments from futurist Ian Wilson about the
planning developed by Wack and his
colleagues.”
(connection.ebscohost.com/c/obituaries/400908/pierre-wack)
Introduction
1. Cybernetics & Foresight
2. Related by common symbols
3. Shared histories
4 . 2 1 st c e n t u r y ‘ t o o l k i t s ’
INTRODUCTION
Cybernetics & Foresight
Working Definitions
What
Stafford Beer
&
Pierre Wack
did!
i.e., Management Cybernetics & Scenario Planning,
respectively
POSIWID: purpose of a system is what it does … (Beer)
CYBERNETICS – FOCUS ON “DOING” …
History of Modern Cybernetics
• Macy Conferences – a set of meetings of scholars
f r o m v a r i o u s d i s c i p l i n e s h e l d i n N e w Yo r k f r o m 1 9 4 6
through to 1953 on the initiative of Warren McCulloch
& t h e J o s i a h M a c y, J r . F o u n d a t i o n .
• Principal Purpose – to set the foundations for a general
science of the workings of the human mind.
(American Cybernetics Society: Macy Summary)
“I specifically want to consider the significance of
the set of cross-disciplinary ideas which we first
called 'feed-back' and then called 'teleological
mechanisms' and then called 'cybernetics' -- a form
of cross-disciplinary thought which made it possible
for members of many disciplines to communicate
with each other easily in a language which all could
understand.”
(Margaret Mead, cited in von Foerster 1995).
CYBERNETICS – GENESIS
Paradigm
“Managing from the Future”
"Internalising some future goal so the institution can plant
its feet in that future and manage the present from there”
(Pascale, Millemann & Gioja, 1997).
The development of a “common understanding is essential”
(van de Heijden, 1988).
Planning for a sustainable future means “first
synchronising watches and the first step towards the
unknown is to get agreement on where we are already”
(James, 1998)
MANAGING FROM THE FUTURE
S e n s e o f P l a c e : ‘ S t a r g a t i n g ’ 1 9 1 2 – 2 11 2
2012
2112
‘Observer’
1912
IMAGINATION …
"... six [points] for the destination.
But to chart a course, you need a point of origin.”
(Daniel Jackson )
2012
Forest Philosophers – France, 1923
Time line recursions:
Northern perspectives -- Southern places
Eastern origins -- Wester destinations ...?
Rich Picture: ‘A Short Look @ Long Time’
The Herald of Coming Good
Paris, 1933
Sufi traditions?
Moscow
1912
(Wack, WW2)
Arica – Chile,1970s
Origins B.C.?
‘Perth’
1697
‘Cygnus atratus’
New Holland
(Willem de Vlamingh)
‘Glocal’ 2112
Beyond Dispute – Toronto,1994
21st
century
Perth
2012
‘21-Dec’
"The hour drew nigh &
the moon did rend asunder."
[Al-Qur'an 54:1]
R
SuperSyntegration® – St Gallen, 2012
ICH PICTURES: 21 ST DECEMBER 1912 > 2012 > 2112 … (200-year toolkits for 2,000+ year journeys)
2 1 st C e n t u r y As s u m p t i o n s
1.
Economic trends, climate change, disruptive
innovative technologies & geopolitical turbulence
continue.
2.
9-billion people (2050) needing inclusive,
harmonious, equitable & sustainability
governance systems.
3.
Challenge: ‘Seeing’ our futures (& complexities)
better – without a ‘Crisis!’ response.
4.
C y b e r n e t i c s i n 2 1 st c e n t u r y f o r e s i g h t ‘ t o o l k i t s ’
OVERVIEW
“Imaginal Visioning for Prophetic Foresight”
(Markley 2012)*
Markley (2012) believes:
1. Future viable systems will need greater input of “higher
intuition” in situations where “systemic disruptions &
transformative change” abound.
2. “Prophetic” forms of foresight involving ethics & “wisdom”
are increasingly desirable for “wise” futures to emerge.
3. Likely scenarios will involve epoch-scale change on
“spaceship earth” with a civilizational tipping-point occurring
around 2020.
4. A post-collapse bifurcation
decades resulting in either
future) or full civilizational
“civilizational reformation”
point may occur in following
a “sustainability era” (wisecollapse – based on a
or its absence (respectively).
5. “Higher level” consciousness & approaches are required to
e x t e n d f o r e s i g h t c a p a c i t y.
(* Journal of Futures Studies, September 2012, 17(1): 5-24)
PROPHETIC FORESIGHT SYSTEMS?
“Imaginal Visioning for Prophetic Foresight”
PROPHETIC FORESIGHT SYSTEMS?
(Markley 2012, p. 11)
Crisis! =
wēijī (wei-chi) :
“danger” & “crucial point”
1.
w ē i ( 危 ) r o u g h l y m e a n s " d a n g e r, d a n g e r o u s ; e n d a n g e r,
jeopardiz e; perilous; precipit ous, precarious ; high; f ear,
afraid“.
2.
wēijī suggests "crucial point"
3.
jī (机 ) does not necessarily mean "opportunity.“
[jīhuì (机会) is closer to “opportunity”]
(Wikipedia: Chinese_word_for_crisis)
CRISIS! …
2B or not 2B in crisis … is that a question of perception?
Analysis
CLA: Foresight & Futures
(Inayatullah 2004)
(Wikipedia image: Causal_layered_analysis)
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS
Work System Domains
“A work system is a purposeful definition of the real world in which
people spend effort in more or less coherent activities for mutually
influencing each other and their environment.”(*)
Domain
Time Span
Function
Method
Focus
Strategic Dilemma
1. Added-value
1 day
to
1-2 years
Transforming product for
clients.
Production to
specifications.
Time, volume,
quality, price.
Waste, efficiency. Using
the right means?
Adapt to change.
2. Innovation
1-2 years
to
5-10 years
Detect change in operating
environment values &
create added value for the
future.
Focus on discovery of
new emerging trends.
Desirability,
feasibility,
transferability,
systemicity (**).
Choices between
alternative products &
services.
Bifurcation point.
3. Value-systems
4. Spiritual
5-10 years to
20-50 years
Beyond 20
years
Create elements of new
culture through new
language, descriptions &
prescriptions.
Permanent debate
between
representatives of
different world views,
traditions & cultures.
Generative,
tolerant, dialectical,
congruent.
Irreversible
consequences of whole
system change.
Tension between
ideology & value
systems.
Deal with personal
mortality.
Focus on creativity &
universality.
Art & personal
behaviour.
Life & death.
Summary based on Hoebeke (1994, pp. 169-183) synthesising Checkland; Beer; Maturana & Jaques
* Wikipedia: Luc_Hoebeke
** the complex, dynamic behaviour exhibited by systems, or systems-of-systems
MAKING WORK SYSTEMS BETTER
CLA + Work System Domains + Cybernetics
CLA
Domain
Litany
1. Added-value
Social System &
Structure
Worldview
Myth & Metaphor
C
2. Innovation
Cyberneticist
Margaret Mead
Cybernetics Definition
“… a form of cross-disciplinary thought
which made it possible for members of
many disciplines to communicate with
each other easily in a language which all
could understand.’
Stafford Beer
“. . . the science of effective organization.”
3. Valuesystems
4. Spiritual
LA & CYBERNETICS
Gregory
Bateson
“… a branch of mathematics dealing with
problems of control, recursiveness and
information focusing on forms and the
patterns that connect.”
Gordon Pask
“… the science of defensible metaphors.”
Problem Situation – ‘Communication Loops’
Systems ‘Verbs’:
1. Emergence
2. Control
3. Hierarchy
4. Communication
5. Information
6. Ethics
CLA
& ‘Cybernetic Foresighting’
Systems ‘Verbs’:
CLA ‘Verbs’:
1. Emergence
2. Control
1. Litany
3. Hierarchy
2. Social systems
4. Communication
3. Worldview
5. Information
4. Myth & Metaphor
6. Ethics
Beer – VSM
(Wikipedia: Viable_system_model)
VIABLE SYSTEMS MODEL
Syntegration ®
VIABLE SYSTEMS MODEL
Bateson – Recursion
1.
‘ecological epistemology’ … ‘recursive epistemology’
2.
‘unnamed science’
3.
Central metaphor – ‘recursion’ . . . ‘a recursive vision’ . . .
“… Bateson believed that recursion requires, in addition to cognitive
understanding, a perpetual and aesthetic ‘space’ for its interpretation. . . .
Bateson’s vision emulates a set of ideas about consciousness and also
about order in living systems. The larger argument is that the explanatory
space of recursion – in Bateson’s sense of that phrase – is necessary to
a n y e c o l o g i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e a n d h e n c e t o o u r o w n s u r v i v a l . * (Harries-Jones 1995, p. 4)
“Bateson argues that any framework of recursion which separates human
activity from nature is fallacious.
Thus any idea of recursion which represents natural order only from the
perspective of ‘human agency’ and ‘social reproduction’ is
anthropomorphic.
The larger question is how humans may derive rules about the
recursiveness of natural order so that a recursive epistemology
i n c l u d e s t h i s k n o w l e d g e o f r e c u r s i o n i n n a t u r a l f o r m s . ” (Ibid. p. 268)
ECOLOGY OF MIND
“A symbol is something that represents an idea, a process, or a physical
entity. The purpose of a symbol is to communicate meaning.” *
SYMBOLS
* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbol
1. Symbol for ‘seeing’ dynamic wholes
2. European ‘history’ – Moscow circa. 1912 (no prior evidence)
3 . Va r i e t y r e d u c t i o n – M i l l e r ’ s “ L a w o f 7 + / - 2 ” ( w h o l e i n t o 9 )
4. Incorporates process ‘deviation’ and ‘distortion’ risk within
systems needing to stay on course.
5. Maps points of ‘hazard’ (e.g., physical; moral; intellectual).
6 . C a n r e p r e s e n t a 2 nd c y b e r n e t i c p r o c e s s n e e d e d a t [ 4 ] t o
adjust the system to achieve continuous “dynamic harmony”
with/within its environment.
“Cybernetic theory takes into account the possibility of changing
the end-points so that the mechanism is not only self regulating
b u t s e l f - i m p r o v i n g . ” (Bennett 1983, p.20)
ENNEAGRAM
Whole systems
Structures
+
Loops
+
(Bennett 1983)
3 INTER RELATED SYMBOLS –
for ‘triadic thinking’
Enneagram – Original (1912)
(Speeth 1989 p.23)
(Ouspensky 1949, p.128)
Combines 2 Systems: Math & Music
ENNEAGRAM – Basic Theory
(Ouspensky 1949, p.128)
To B e e , o r n o t t o B e e …
– an Ancient Order … or ‘modern’ Myth? –
(Naranjo 1990, p. 17)
(Bessing et al 1984, p. 145)
Based on the Arica
systems developed by
Oscar Ichazo – Chile,
circa. 1960s
(Beesing et al 1984, p. 126)
(Naranjo 1990, inside cover)
CLAUDIO NARANJO – Applied to character typing
EXAMPLES – (Bennett 1983)
Mapping the 6 “C’s” of “Spaceship Earth”
1. Hazard- Weakness –
Stress – Pivot point
2. Resonance between
“si-do” & “6”
(Ouspensky 1949, p.128)
a’
a
(Ouspensky 1949, p.128)
Laszlo’s (2001) 3-C’s (“conquest, colonization and consumption”) describe three waves during the preceding 10,000 year
development cycle as shifts from “nomadic era”, “agricultural era”, “industrial era” and “information era” respectively; while
“connection, communication and consciousness” describe the transition to a future “fourth wave” centred on civilizational tipping
points within the current information era.
EXAMPLE – (Markley 2012)
Images of ‘appreciating’ Systems @ Work
“Nomad Sciences” … (in
Breathing Universe)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icosahedron
PICKERING
– “The Mangle of Practice …” (1995) & “The Cybernetic Brain” (2010)
2 1 st C e n t u r y M a n a g e m e n t To o l k i t s
Viable Systems Practice
www.malik-management.com/en
CYBERNETIC FORESIGHTING – Future Directions
SuperSyntegration ®
CYBERNETIC FORESIGHTING – 21
ST
CENTURY
“Recursive Enneagram in Icosahedron”
(© Joseph Truss, 2012)
PERCEIVING – Beer & Truss (1994)
Dialogics < Ethics > Metaphysics
Note: no specific endorsement is
implied for this interpretation/use of
the images here – it is a convenient
public artistic visualisation of the
meta-’object’ and it’s shadow being
case on clouds (cave walls) that is
the focus.
Ethics becomes manifest, without becoming too explicit,
through use of its “twin sisters” – “Metaphysics” &“Dialogics”
PERCEIVING – Ethics . . . (& Beyond?)
(von Foerster 1995)
Summary
1.
Foresight
•
Shares common histories & future challenges with cybernetics (as a nomad science).
•
Awareness of its ‘history’ appears low.
•
Toolkits can benefit from cybernetic perspectives to help understand patterns, rhythms
& blindsiding shock-points.
2.
Enneagram
•
Helps understand & communicate complex inter-related issues.
•
Provides a whole-systems thinking framework across the CLA 4, 3, 2 & (1- history).
•
Cybernetic interpretations give insight into sustainability’s triple bottom-line dynamics.
3.
Future
•
More research is required into applications & teaching methods – e.g., as ‘history’ of
foresight etc.
•
Markley’s (2012) scenarios can be seen as ‘back to the future’ for C 21 st foresighting
based on what has already emerged since 1912.
SUMMARY
Art@Work
thank you
©Clemens: 2006)
De Ropp’s (1972) “New Prometheans” as leading systems
thinkers and futures practitioners who apply knowledge of the
arts and the sciences to work in harmony with Nature.
Syntegration® 101: An Impression
(posted: S t G a l l e n , 2 0 1 1
Quotations from www.malik-management.com/en/malik-for-organizations/managementtopics/environment/crisis-an-transformation21)
Links of interest:
• Syntegration 101: An Impression (8:38 min) -- www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxPpVN-Wvvs
• Malik Management für Chinesische Universitäten, Juni 2011 (0:35 min) -- www.youtube.com/watch?v=quomRC_gkwY
Transformations 21
… Without Fear or Favour …
References – see paper
QUESTIONS?
© Clemens 2012
CC BY-NC-ND
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en