Transcript Russia’s Demographic Dilemma Oleh Wolowyna, Ph. D. Univ. of N. Carolina at Chapel Hill World View Seminar Chapel Hill, March 23-24, 2011 POPULATION Indicator Ukraine Russia USA 45.9 141.9 308.7 603,700 17,098,242 3,794,080 76.0 8.3 81.4 % 14.0% 15.0% 20.2% %65+ yrs. 16.0% 13.0% 12.4 69% 73% 80% 4 (6) Population (in.

Russia’s Demographic
Dilemma
Oleh Wolowyna, Ph. D.
Univ. of N. Carolina at Chapel Hill
World View Seminar
Chapel Hill, March 23-24, 2011
POPULATION
2010
Indicator
Ukraine
Russia
USA
45.9
141.9
308.7
603,700
17,098,242
3,794,080
76.0
8.3
81.4
%<15 yrs.
14.0%
15.0%
20.2%
%65+ yrs.
16.0%
13.0%
12.4
69%
73%
80%
1
9
4 (6)
Population (in millions)
Area (sq. miles)
Density (per sq. mile)
% urban
number of time zones
* # of births/1,000 pop.
** women 15-49 yrs.
+TFR=2.1 needed for 0% growth
Population




The largest area in the world, but very
low density
(Russia followed by Canada and the
US)
High urbanization: 2/3 of population
in lives in urban areas
Old age structure
FERTILITY
2005-2006
Ukraine
Russia
USA
Crude Birth Rate*
11
12
13.4
Total Fertility Rate+
1.5
1.5
2.1
% all contraceptives use**
67%
73%
62%
% modern contracep. use**
72%
73%
89%
52.0%
45.0%
2.3%
% pregnancies aborted
* # of births/1,000 pop.
** women 15-49 yrs.
+TFR=2.1 needed for 0% growth
Fertility
Very low fertility, below replacement level (1.1
child/woman)
Abortion:

still the most prevalent method of family planning:
cost, lack of training and education among health
staff and women

About 1.2 million Russian women have abortions,
and 800,000 become sterile

High level of illegal abortions (180,000 out of 1.2
million)

The number of abortions is close to the number of
births

Some women had 14 or more abortions in their
lifetime

MORTALITY
2005-2006
Ukraine
Russia
USA
Crude Death Rate***
15
14
8.0
life expectancy at birth (M)
63
62
75
life expectancy at birth (F)
74
74
80
Infant mortality rate****
9.3
8.2
6.8
*** # of deaths/1,000 pop.
**** # of deaths < 1 yr./1,000 births
Mortality
Very high mortality, specially
among men
 Difference in life expectancy at
birth between women and men =
12 yrs.:
Compared to US: females six yrs.
lower, males 13 yrs. lower
 Very high infant mortality rate:
about 40% higher than in US

HEALTH
2005-2006
Ukraine
Russia
USA
Cardiovascular
59.0%
56%
31%
Cancer
12.0%
14%
23%
Suicides, accidents, murder,
10.0%
10%
5%
1.3%
1.1%
0.4%
Causes of death (%):
alcohol, drowning, etc.
HIV/AIDS: % tot. pop. infected
Health



Less developed country cause of death profile:
• higher % of cardiovascular diseases and lower %
of cancer
• very high % of accidents, drinking and smokingrelated diseases, suicides, drugs, etc.
Factors:
• very inefficient and corrupt health care system
• low priority on preventive medicine and education
• expensive drugs
• unhealthy life style (lack of education)
HIV/AIDS:
• very high incidence, serious public health
problem:
unprotected sex, drugs, lack of
treatment (cost)
FUTURE TRENDS
2010-2050
Ukraine
Russia
USA
% of yearly rate of growth
-0.66
-0.28
0.88
Population 2010 (in millions)
45.9
141.9
308.7
Projected to 2050 (in millions)
35.3
126.7
439.0
-23.1%
-10.7%
42.2%
-265,000
-380,000
3,257,500
% population 2050/2010
Avrg. yearly population change
Future Trends




Negative growth (loss of population): very
low fertility and high mortality
On the average loosing 380 thousand per
year
By 2050, expected population 11% lower
than in 2010
Further aging of population
USA 2010
Rusia 2010
75+
75+
70-74
70-74
65-69
65-69
60-64
60-64
55-59
55-59
50-54
50-54
45-49
45-49
40-44
40-44
FEMALES
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
MALES
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
5-9
0-4
0-4
FEMALES
MALES
Males/100Females: Russia and USA, 2010
110
100
90
80
70
Russia
60
50
40
30
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
USA
Current and Projected Population of Russia:
2010 - 2050
75+
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
2050 F
2050 M
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
2010 F
2010 M