Transcript Greetings Márton Kamrás TUM18 – Blue section 2013.03.21. WHY ENDANGERED? People have been killing killer whales since the 12th century.

Greetings
Márton Kamrás
TUM18 – Blue section
2013.03.21.
WHY ENDANGERED?
People have been killing
killer whales since the
12th century. They have
died from oil spills, and
garbage in the ocean.
Also toxins like radiation
was spilled in the ocean.
WHERE THEY LIVE.
They live in both coastal
oceans. They also live in the
tropical to arctic waters.
What Do They Eat?
Like dolphins orcas use
echolocation.
killer whales eat: The kill
whales are
Fish, squid, bird, sea lion,eating
andthe
blue whale.
any other marine mammals.
Interesting Facts
Killer whales
can swim
up to
30mph.
Also do not
eat or
attack
people.
Our viewpoint (opinion)
Our viewpoint
opinion is to save
the killer whale
because the killer
whale is harmless.
And is a peaceful
animal in both
coastal oceans.
OUR BIBLYOGRAPHY
Why Endangered
Title: Whale .Authors: Sarah Blue, Shawn Buell, Stephan
Creed, Scott McCarthy.
Web:www.edu.pe.ca/southern kings/whale
LOCATION:
Web: www.pacificwhale.org/children’sforce
Interesting Facts:
Title: World book
Publisher: Scott Eetzer company
Expert contra algorithmic
estimation
Márton Kamrás
TUM18
Blue section
Generally about Estimation
(within Agile context)
Def.1: An attempt to predict the
duration or cost of a project.
Generally about Estimation
(within Agile context)
Def.2: Estimation is a calculated
appoximation of a result wich is
usable even if input data may be
incomplete or uncertain. (wiki)
Generally about Estimation
(within Agile context)
By definition, estimation is not
accurate!!4four
” The more effort we put into
something, the better the result. ”
…Right?
Example
BEWARE
A lot of effort for slightly
better results!!
Do you like wasting time?
• We cannot eliminate uncertainty. No amount of
additional effort will make an estimation perfect.
• Vary the effort you put into estimating according to
purpose of the estimate.
• Agile teams tend to stay on the left of the
accuracy/effort scale.
• Embrace the idea that small efforts are rewarded with
big gains.
• Frequently delivered small increments of fully
working, tested, integrated code result in more
reliable plans.
The Estimation Scale
Why would we need a scale?
<<demo>>
Conclusion 1
Do you know me?
Conclusion 2
We are best at estimating within a
single order of magnitude.
Example for scale
•Bucket sizes: 1, 2, 3, 5 and 8
•1 is the chosen unit
•2=2*1, 3=3*1,3=1.5*2 etc…
•Nonlinear sequences reflect the
greater uncertainty for larger untis.
• 0?
•10, 20, 30, 50 – still within a single
order of magnitude
•You need to pre-identify.
Deriving an Estimate
•Expert-based estimation
•Algorithmic estimation
Expert-based
•Guess what.. an expert is asked
•The X/t relies on his/her intuition or
gut feel and provides an estimate
Less useful on agile projects than on
traditional projects.
BECAUSE
•Estimates are assigned to user stories,
user-valued functionality
•It is difficult to find one suitable expert
who assess the effort across all disciplines.
•You cannot know for sure who will
do specific works – actually anyone
may work on anything.
•Everyone should have input into
the estimate.
Algorithmically
•Set up an Issue Tracker – Something to
contain your issues/stories/etc like a developer
backlog.
• Give points to issues – Fibonacci or doubles works
here. The point system is entirely arbitrary, but
points should be relative to how hard the issue is to
the other issues in the project.
• Estimate total number of hours to complete each
issue -Based on personal experience to start.
Algorithmically
• Complete each issue – Track total amount of time
it took to complete. The time when you’re actually
coding, architecting, or otherwise engineering
what the issue specifically asks for.
• Reflection – Calculate your efficiency ratio (ER).
The ER is the ratio of the number of hours
estimated to the actual number of hours taken.
This needs to be calculated for each issue. It will
lead to a developer efficiency.
Algorithmically
•Summary – At the end of the
project collect your results about
the efficiency of estimations.
You will evolve.
Reference, details
•http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/sy
stem/asset/file/15/aep_sample.pdf
•http://leadinganswers.typepad.com/leadin
g_answers/2007/11/agile-estimatin.html
•http://de.slideshare.net/jssunil/agilesoftware-estimation
•http://agilescout.com/algorithmicallyestimating-developer-time/
Thank you - Danke schön - ¡Gracias
- obrigado – ‫ شكرا‬- Köszönöm –
Merci - Teşekkür ederim – Děkuji Dank u – Grazie - 谢谢