Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof.

Energy Modelling Lab.

Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim [email protected]

A Look at Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

Recession and Oil Price Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

A Look at Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

Crude Oil Price: Historical Trend

Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

China Coal Impact – 30% production reduction

Crude Oil Price Fluctuation (1970-2010) China Coal Impact – 30% production reduction Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

OPEC Production & Crude Oil Prices Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Non-OPEC Production & Crude Oil Prices Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

U.S. Petroleum Consumption Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Gold and Oil Prices Historical Relationship Source: The Underlying Causes of Oil Price Fluctuations ,

Figure 1 The Circular-Flow Diagram

GDP and Its Components

Real and Nominal GDP

GDP, Life Expectancy, and Literacy

The Typical Basket of Goods and Services

Two Measures of Inflation

Growth and Investment

The Variety of Growth Experiences

The U.S. Government Debt

The Breakdown of the Population in 2001

Unemployment Rate since 1960

U.S. Real GDP Growth since 1900

An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply

Accommodating an Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply

Energy & Economy

Future Energy Path?

Future Energy Price? (2002 $ per barrel)

Oil Price Forecasting

Energy & Economy