Transcript High resolution experiments with the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model 1st October 2009, Toulouse, France Gabriella Csima (Hungarian Meteorological Service) OUTLINE • The ALADIN-Climate model & experiment •

High resolution experiments with the
ALADIN-Climate regional climate
model
1st October 2009, Toulouse, France
Gabriella Csima (Hungarian Meteorological Service)
OUTLINE
• The ALADIN-Climate model & experiment
• Validation results
• Results of the projection
• Summary, conclusions
The ALADIN-CLIMATE model
ARPEGE/IFS
Global circulation
model
ARPEGE-Climat
Global climate model
modification of the
physical
parameterization
package
ARPEGE-Climat
Global climate model
(early 90’s)
ALADIN-Climate
PHISICS
Regional climate model
(middle of 90’s)
ALADIN
Adaptation to Hungary in
2005
Limited area model (LAM)
DYNAMICS
Main characteristics of ALADIN-Climate model
MODEL TYPE
Spectral, hydrostatic, SISL
advection scheme
HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION
10 km (Lambert projection)
VERTICAL LEVELS
31 (hybrid)
LBCs
ERA40 – ARPEGE (Davies relaxation
scheme)
VALIDATION RUNS
1961-2000: ERA40
1961-1990: ARPEGE
SCENARIO RUNS
2021-2050 A1B
2071-2100 A1B
Domain and orography
ALADIN-Climate domain and orography ~10 km
ARPEGE-Climate orography
~50 km
PAST
1960-1989
Difference of annual mean temperature
MODEL – CRU [oC] (1960 – 1989)
10 km; LBC: ERA-40
10 km; LBC: ARPEGE
~50 km – ARPEGE global model
Difference of seasonal mean temperature
MODEL – CRU [oC] (1960-1989)
Spring
Summer
10km – LBC: ERA-40
10km – LBC: ARPEGE
~50 km – ARPEGE global model
Autumn
Winter
Annual relative difference of precipitation
(MODEL – CRU)/CRU [%] (1960-1989)
10 km; LBC: ERA-40
10 km; LBC: ARPEGE
~50 km – ARPEGE global model
Seasonal relative difference of precipitation
(MODEL – CRU)/CRU [%] (1960-1989)
Spring
Summer
10km – LBC: ERA-40
10km – LBC: ARPEGE
~50 km – ARPEGE global model
Autumn
Winter
TEMPERATURE (oC)
Climatological annual
cycle and Taylordiagram for Hungary
(1960-1989)
CORRELATION
PRECIPITATION (mm)
STANDARD DEVIATION
FUTURE
2021-2050
2071-2100
Seasonal boxplots of the ALADIN-Climate temperature
simulation in the different periods for Hungary
Monthly boxplots of the ALADIN-Climate temperature
simulation in the different periods for Hungary
Seasonal boxplots of the ALADIN-Climate precipitation
simulation in the different periods for Hungary
Seasonal precipitation
Spring
ALADIN 2021-2050
0.2 %
Summer
Autumn
Winter
Significance
0.0 %
0.0 %
1.1 %
92 %
0.0 %
0.0 %
ALADIN 2071-2100
0.2 %
Monthly boxplots of the ALADIN-Climate precipitation
simulation in the different periods for Hungary
Conclusions
Validation:
 The ALADIN-Climate model is too cold and too wet
 No added value (ARPEGE-Climate has slightly better results
than the ALADIN-Climate)
 ERA40 („perfect” LBCs) results are not better
 Spurious noise along the boundaries => THE DOMAIN IS
TOO SMALL!
Projection:
 Significant warming trend
 Strongest temperature increase in late summer
 Basically no change of annual precipitation amount –
significant only: the summer drying at the end of the century
Thank you for your
attention!