Transcript Russia’s Foreign Policy in Northeast Asia Mikhail A. Molchanov Associate Professor Department of Political Science St.

Russia’s Foreign Policy in
Northeast Asia
Mikhail A. Molchanov
Associate Professor
Department of Political Science
St. Thomas University, Fredericton, Canada
Visiting Scholar, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
[email protected]
1
Grand narratives
Utopian globalism: Gorbachev
Primitive westernism: Yeltsin-Kozyrev
Eurasianism: Primakov (1995-99)
Pragmatism: Putin I
Nationalism/Eurasianism : Putin II
Back to pragmatism and global
engagement?
2
Key Priorities
Sovereignty and territorial integrity
Reclaiming the status of a global power
Multilateralism/multipolarity (UN, UNSC)
Economic development
International and regional stability
Active neighborhood policies
3
Regional priorities
Integration in the framework of the CIS
Developing ties with the EU
Containing NATO’s growth
Reviving the Russia-US dialogue
The Asia-Pacific integration (APEC, ARF,
SCO)
Strategic partnerships with China and
India
4
Russia’s trade with North-East Asia
Imports
Exports
(US $ mln, actual prices)
19
2095
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
06
Japan
19
2095
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
06
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
China
(US $ mln, actual prices)
Korea
Source: Goskomstat RF
China
Japan
Korea
5
Structure of foreign trade (%)
100
Others
CIS
USA
Japan
Korea
China
EU
80
60
40
20
0
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
Source: Federal Customs Service, RF
6
Trends in Russia’s foreign trade (%)
EU
100
China
Korea
10
Japan
USA
CIS
1
Others
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
36.8
36.1
52.1
54.3
51.4
China
6
6.1
6
6.5
7.3
Korea
1.4
1.4
1.9
2.2
2.7
Japan
1.8
2.3
2.8
2.8
3.6
USA
4.6
3.7
3.2
3.4
3.2
CIS
16.9
17.8
15.2
14.7
14.9
Others
32.5
32.6
18.8
16.1
16.9
EU
7
Largest reserves holdings
US$ bln
Economy
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Import coverage (2005)
China
622.9
831.4
1,068,5
1,527
1,680
14 months
Japan
844.7
846.9
895.0
973.4
1,020
16 months
Russia
126.3
182.3
304.0
476.4
494.5
11 months
India
131.6
137.8
192.0
275.3
288.3
12 months
Taiwan
247.7
260.3
266.2
270.1
272.8
14 months
Korea
199.2
210.6
238.8
262.2
262.4
8 months
Singapore
112.2
115.8
136.3
162.9
167.6
5 months
Hong Kong
123.6
124.3
133.2
150.4
159.9
4 months
Germany
97.2
101.7
111.6
136.2
153.0
1 month
USA
190.5
188.3
54.9
70.6
73.5
1 month
2007 WDI; IMF; Reuters; CIA;
countries
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Main security concerns
Expansion of NATO: Georgia, Ukraine
U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in
Europe
Chinese demographic and economic
expansion in RFE (unvoiced)
Political Islam, terrorism and separatism
Nuclear proliferation
Global economic vulnerabilities
9
Russian defense expenditure
In constant (2005) US$ mln
In constant (2005) US$ mln
1000000
250000
Russia
USSR
200000
Russia
China
150000
Japan
100000
USA
ROK
100000
50000
34700
23600
26100
19100
0
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
10000
Source: SIPRI database
13600
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
10
Regional policy drivers
Bilateral
China’s growth
Balancing or
bandwagoning?
US & NATO expansion
Balancing/engaging
Unrealized potential in
relations with Japan
Separating politics from
economics
The two Koreas
The trade/security nexus
Multilateral
UN/UNSC
N Korea; Six-party talks
Japan’s bid for UNSC
G7/G8
Hokkaido Toyako summit
Russia’s 2006 presidency
SCO / CSTO
APEC / WTO
ASEAN /ARF
ACD, EAS, others
11
Russo-Korean relations: Politics
Key concern – security
Denuclearization of the peninsula: the “Ukraine model”
Equal relationship with both Koreas
Conflict prevention (security cost)
Stability at the borders
Nuclear non-proliferation in NE Asia: Japan, ROK, Taiwan
Geopolitics and the balance of power
Reaffirming Russia’s relevance in NEA
Checking the US hegemonic ambitions
Soft-balancing China together with the South
Establishing spheres of influence in the North
12
Russo-Korean relations: Economy
Korea as Russia’s gate to NE Asia
The “Europe-Korea” railway link (TSR/TKR)
Unified energy system for continental NEA
Gas/oil trade, E&D (Sakhalin/Kamchatka)
A bridgehead to Asia Pacific
A market for high value-added exports
A partner in the development of RFE
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Relations with Japan: Key areas
“Creative partnership”
Trade/investment/technology
Law enforcement, defense and security
Cultural and interpersonal exchange
Political dialogue, international cooperation, peace
treaty
Problem issues
Japan’s “territorial claims”
Insufficient level of trade & investments
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Relations with Japan: Economy
Strengths
Trade grows 30-40% a year
Reached $19 bln in 2007
Industry leaders started
taking interest in Russia
Automotive: Toyota (2005),
Nissan-Suzuki-Isuzu (200607)
Banks: Tokyo-Mitsubishi
UFJ, Mizuho, Mitsui
Sumitomo (2005-2006)
Program of development of
the Far East and TransBaikal region up to 2013
Russian sovereign funds look
to invest in Japan
Weaknesses
Investment < 2% total
cumulative $2960.4 mln
direct $292.8 mln
Sakhalin II: A traumatic
experience for Japan
The East Siberia-Pacific
Ocean Oil Pipeline: A
prolonged debate
Skovorodino (China) first
By rail to Kozmino Bay
(Japan) second
Japanese SME in Russia
suffer from regulatory
burden and corruption
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China: “a relationship of trust”
Drivers:
First, Russia’s fear, then – admiration
Same vision of key global issues
Economic incentives on both sides
Resisting American hegemonism
Geopolitical positioning in the world and vis-à-vis each other
Super-task: emulating China’s success
Present goals: security, stability, regime preservation,
rebuilding of the state, economic revival
Instruments: trade, political and military cooperation,
strategic uses of state-led regionalism in Eurasia
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Trade and investment
Trade: 2006 - $28.7 bln; 2007 - $40.3 bln, 41-48% growth/year
Goal – US$ 60+ bln by 2010
Interregional ties: 70 out of 89 Russian provinces have direct
contacts with their Chinese counterparts.
Good outlook for the future - $5.2bln in trade contracts in 0310/2007, incl. $500mln to Russia’s machine building industry
Oil – 10 mln ton exported in 2007 (10% of Chinese demand, 4th
place in the Chinese market after Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Iran
Gas – an agreement to export 30-38 bln m3/a
Chinese investments in Russia ($5bln pledged) – capital
construction, pulp mills, agriculture. Potentially - port renovation
& infrastructure projects (Vladivostok-2012, Sochi-2014). By
Nov 2007: $1.6 bln in accumulated bilateral investment
(Russia’s inward>90%). The goal is $12bln by 2020.
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Political and military aspects
Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship, and
Cooperation (2001)
Arts. 7-9 on security-related cooperation
The Outline on Implementing the Treaty (2005-2008)
Borders no longer an issue (Oct. 2004)
But Chinese demographic and economic pressure remains:
108 mln in 3 NE provinces vs 27 mln in all of Siberia/RFE
Joint military exercises became routine
Russia’s arms have modernized PLA
Chinese purchases saved Russian military-industrial complex
New tensions over co-production, licensing
Putin: military cooperation "will continue” (03/2007)
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Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Neither the “Chinese” nor the “Russian” tool
interdependence, complementary interests
Central Asians not easy to push around
From confidence building measures to a
multifunctional regional club in 5 years
A new “geopolitical axis” or “we did not plan it that
way”?
Prospects for the future: “deepening before
widening”
The Iran controversy
India vs Pakistan
Diverging attitudes toward the West
19
Public opinion and foreign policy
What is Russia?
A part of Europe, their 21st century destinies will be closely
intertwined – 38%
Not quite European, but a unique Eurasian civilization; in the
future, its interests will be shifting to the East – 45%
Russia’s rise and strengthening
Is a threat to the European nations, which do not want this
to happen – 49%
Answers the interests of the European nations, since Europe
is our common home – 34%
Positive (negative) associations (%):
Europe: 77 (11), CIS: 59 (21), EU: 56 (18), Asia: 56 (24),
the UN: 55 (21), the West: 52 (31), WTO: 49 (19), America:
34 (50), NATO: 19 (57)
VTsIOM, March 2007 national poll
N=1600, p<3.4%
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Conclusion
Is there a Russian strategy for Asia?
Yes: Putin’s plan, Medvedev’s career
No: inconsistencies, lack of planning
Eurasian regionalism – the main avenue for
Russia’s great power revival
SCO remains the key
CIS – Medvedev’s first priority
RFE – “we need to develop, finally, the system of
state policies toward the Far East” (Medvedev,
07/02/2008)
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