BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams Beatriz Martínez López*, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno *[email protected] Animal Health Department Veterinary School University Complutense of Madrid (UCM), Spain www.sanidadanimal.info SECOND ANNUAL.
Download ReportTranscript BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams Beatriz Martínez López*, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno *[email protected] Animal Health Department Veterinary School University Complutense of Madrid (UCM), Spain www.sanidadanimal.info SECOND ANNUAL.
BTV and AHS risk associated with wind streams Beatriz Martínez López*, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno *[email protected] Animal Health Department Veterinary School University Complutense of Madrid (UCM), Spain www.sanidadanimal.info SECOND ANNUAL MEETING Giulianova, Teramo, 9-11 December 2008 0.5 microgram 0.1 to 10 microgram Barnum et al. 2004 0.73 to 6.1 microgram Perez et al. 2006 Source: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Introduction of BTV (AHS) by wind Pathway diagram Culicoides is introduced into Europe by wind Culicoides becomes infected with BTV Culicoides survives Culicoides contacs with susceptible animal BT symptoms Culicoides transmits BTV to susceptible animal Bluetongue virus in sheep, cows, goats, camels or wild ruminants Death Recovery Adapted from: EL PAíS, Sunday 16th novemeber, 2008 Objectives Prediction of Culicoides introduction into Europe by wind using the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) Wind + Particle vehiculation + Deposition ? ? ? ? ? ? DREAM: Dust REgional Atmospheric Model Source: http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/ Hypothesis There is a significant association between the dust introduction into Europe and the Culicoides introduction by wind. Dust introduction Culicoides entrance Materials and Methods 1. Data collection: Introduction of dust into Europe* Surface concentration (μg/m3/day) 2. Data analysis: Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe* Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind Outbreaks in Europe*? *Only Spain has been analysed in detail (future work would include other European Countries) 1. Data collection 1. Data collection 1. Data collection Cell: 0.5 x 0.5 degrees 1. Data collection Surface concentration (μg/m3/day)* Dry dust deposition (g/m2/day) Wet dust deposition (g/m2/day) Optical Dust depth load (g/m2) (2000-2006) 544,215 records *amount of dust (μg = micrograms) per volume (m3) near to the soil (<2000 meters). 1. Data collection Surface concentration (μg/m3/day)* Dry dust deposition (g/m2/day) Wet dust deposition (g/m2/day) Optical Dust depth load (g/m2) (2000-2006) (2000-2006) 544,215 records *amount of dust (μg = micrograms) per volume (m3) near to the soil (<1000 meters). 2. Data analysis Temporal and spatial analysis of dust introduction into Europe*: When and where: Time series analysis ArcGIS Is there any correlation between outbreak ocurrence in North Africa, dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence in Europe? Preliminary Results 2006_10 2006_07 2006_04 2006_01 2005_10 2005_07 2005_04 2005_01 2004_10 2004_07 2004_04 2004_01 2003_10 2003_07 2003_04 2003_01 2002_10 2002_07 2002_04 2002_01 2001_10 2001_07 2001_04 2001_01 2000_10 2000_07 2000_04 2000_01 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Surface concentration (μg/m3) 5000 4500 2006 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 400 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 300 250 0 150 5 100 0 2000 350 200 5 Andalucía 450 5 0 Balearic Islands 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 50 0 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 121 127 133 139 145 151 157 163 169 175 181 187 193 199 205 211 0 Surface concentration (μg/m3) 45 2000_01 2000_03 2000_05 2000_07 2000_09 2000_11 2001_01 2001_03 2001_05 2001_07 2001_09 2001_11 2002_01 2002_03 2002_05 2002_07 2002_09 2002_11 2003_01 2003_03 2003_05 2003_07 2003_09 2003_11 2004_01 2004_03 2004_05 2004_07 2004_09 2004_11 2005_01 2005_03 2005_05 2005_07 2005_09 2005_11 2006_01 2006_03 2006_05 2006_07 2006_09 2006_11 50 April - July 209 210 204 206 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 50 40 20 10 30 0 20 2000_01 2000_03 2000_05 2000_07 2000_09 2000_11 2001_01 2001_03 2001_05 2001_07 2001_09 2001_11 2002_01 2002_03 2002_05 2002_07 2002_09 2002_11 2003_01 2003_03 2003_05 2003_07 2003_09 2003_11 2004_01 2004_03 2004_05 2004_07 2004_09 2004_11 2005_01 2005_03 2005_05 2005_07 2005_09 2005_11 2006_01 2006_03 2006_05 2006_07 2006_09 2006_11 60 April60- July 50 10 0 132 146 132 146 30 40 200 150 100 BTV introduction in 50 Balearic Islands *Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered 50 Dust in Baleares 40 Outbreaks* in Baleares Outbreaks in Morrocco Outbreaks in Tunisia Number of outbreaks 30 20 76 10 0 28 Dec Nov Oct Sep Ago Jul Jun May Mar Feb 0 Jan BTV-2 104 outbreaks Apr BTV-2 Morocco Argelia Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia 200 BTV-4 Morocco Argelia Tunisia 150 4 outbreaks 100 BTV introduction in 50 Balearic Islands 40 4 0 Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul Jun May Apr Mar Ago Dust in Baleares Outbreaks* in Baleares Outbreaks in Morrocco Outbreaks in Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia Number of outbreaks 20 10 *Only primary outbreaks in Baleares are considered Undereporting? Winds from Sardinia? 50 30 Feb Jan 0 Winds from Sardinia? 200 Morocco Argelia Tunisia 150 100 BTV in 230introduction outbreaks BTV-4 50 Dec Nov Oct Sep Ago Jul Jun May Mar Feb Jan Apr Andalucía 0 BTV-4 *Only primary outbreaks in Andalucía are considered 50 Dust in Andalucía 40 Outbreaks* in Andalucía Outbreaks in Morrocco Outbreaks in Tunisia Outbreaks in Argelia 30 20 230 10 0 BTV introduction in BTV-4 Andalucía *Only primary outbreaks in Andalucía are considered 50 Dust in Andalucía 40 Outbreaks* in Andalucía Outbreaks in Morrocco Outbreaks in Tunisia 30 20 10 0 Undereporting? Overwintering? Outbreaks in Argelia Conclusions Culicoides introduction is most likely to occur in the south-east part of Spain and Canary Islands (sporadically in Balearic Islands) Highest Culicoides introduction may occur between April and July Outbreaks in N. Africa + Wind High risk for introduction of BTV (AHS) infected Culicoides Outbreaks in Argelia/Tunisia Risk for Balearic Islands Outbreaks in Morocco Risk for Andalucía (Only when high number of outbreaks in N. Africa occur???) Future work (2009) Complete analysis of data for all Europe and for years 2007 and 2008 Study the correlation between dust introduction and outbreak ocurrence (include variables such as Tª, relative humidity, etc.) Dust Andalucía 50 20 10 0 Tunisia Outbreaks Argelia Outbreaks Include winds countries (not Africa) comingprecipitation intoArgelia Europe Morrocco outbreaksfrom other T_min_abs T_max_abs Dust Andalucía Outbreaks Andalucía Tunisia Outbreaks Outbreaks Morrocco outbreaks T_min_abs T_max_abs precipitation Analysis of the spatial origin of the wind and probability of Culicoides survival during the wind vehiculation 40 30 Outbreaks Andalucía Future modeling specifically for Culicoides introduction: “DREAM” adaptation for Culicoides ”CREAM”?? Thanks for your attention !