Transcript Мировой Рынок Хлопка Андрей Гичунц, МККХ 4 Медународная Ярмарка и Конференция 17 Сентября 2007, Ташкент World Production & Consumption Million tons Consumption Production 1582/83 87/88 92/93 97/98 02/03 07/08 World Ending Stocks Million tons China (M) Rest of.

Мировой Рынок Хлопка
Андрей Гичунц, МККХ
4 Медународная Ярмарка и
Конференция
17 Сентября 2007, Ташкент
World Production & Consumption
Million tons
30
Consumption
25
Production
20
15
10
82/83
87/88
92/93
97/98
02/03
07/08
World Ending Stocks
Million tons
China (M)
15
Rest of the World
12
9
6
3
0
92/93
97/98
02/03
07/08
World Production
Million tons
30
25
20
15
10
82/83
87/88
92/93
97/98
02/03
07/08
World Cotton Yield
Kg/ha
800
756
700
600
500
400
82/83 87/88 92/93 97/98 02/03 07/08
World Cotton Area and Prices
Million hectares
42
37
32
World Cotton Area
Cotlook A Index
U.S. cts/lb
150
125
100
75
50
27
25
82/83 87/88 92/93 97/98 02/03 07/08
U
06/07
07/08
C
FA
Zo
ne
rk
ey
ek
.
zb
l
an
SA
ra
zi
Tu
U
B
)
ia
(M
In
d
hi
na
Pa
ki
st
C
Production by Country
Million tons
8
6
4
2
0
World Cotton Mill Use
Million Tons
30
25
Asia
Rest of the World
20
15
10
5
0
82/83
87/88
92/93
97/98
02/03
07/08
Cotton Mill Use
China (M), India, and Pakistan
Million tons
12
10
8
6
China (Mainland)
4
2
India
Pakistan
0
90/91
94/95
98/99
02/03
06/07
World Imports
Million tons
10
China (M)
8
Rest of the World
6
4
2
0
91/92
95/96
99/00
03/04
07/08
World Exports
Million tons
4
3
2
1
0
USA
India Uzbek. CFA
Zone
05/06
06/07
BrazilAustralia
07/08
Biotech Cotton
% of World Cotton Area
50
40
36
29
30
20
12
10
40
4
16
17
21
22
25
7
0
97/98
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08,
proj.
ICAC Price Model 1988
• Predicts season-average Cotlook A Index
• Variables:
– S/U ratio in world-less-China (M)
– Net imports by China (M) as a % of mill use in the rest
of the world
• Predicted prices 2 years in advance
• Worked relatively well until 2003/04
ICAC Price Model 2007
• Predicts season-average Cotlook A Index
• Variables:
– S/MU ratio in World-less-China (M) = most
important
– S/MU ratio in China (M)
• Predicts prices one year in advance (ex: April
2008 for 2008/09 season-average)
• Monthly adjustment of forecast according to
actual prices up to that date
Cotlook A Index
Season-average (US cents/lb)
100
85
77
70
68
55
59
40
average 73/74 – 97/98 =
74 cents/lb
25
73/74
81/82
89/90
average 98/99 – 06/07 =
56 cents/lb
97/98
05/06
Stocks-to-Mill Use Ratio:
World-less-China (M)
65%
55%
45%
35%
25%
82/83
87/88
92/93
97/98
02/03
07/08
International Cotton Advisory
Committee