Transcript Climate Change Science: What we know today and future impacts

Climate Change Science:
What we know today and
future impacts
Dr. Roberta Johnson
University Corporation for Atmospheric
Research
Education and Outreach
Overview
• Why climate change
science in the
classroom?
• Climate versus
Weather
• Climate Models
• Climate Change
Observations
• IPCC 4th Assessment
Summary for Policy
Makers
• Future Impacts
Annual layers of ice, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru
Courtesy of Lonnie Thompson
Why Focus on Climate
Change?
• Societal Relevance
• National Science Education
Standards (NRC, 1996)
• Interdisciplinary content
spans broad spectrum of
the geosciences
• Opportunities for authentic
inquiry-based learning
 A focus area providing
opportunity for students to
engage in research-driven
learning with high
motivation in an
interdisciplinary context.
Polar bears on melting ice berg in Beaufort Sea, 2004
Courtesy Environment Canada
Relevance of Climate Change
to the NSES
• Unifying concepts and
processes
• Science as Inquiry
• Physical Science
• Life Science
• Earth and Space Science
• Science and Technology
• Science in Personal and
Social Perspectives
• History and Nature of
Science
NSES Content Standards,
Grades 5-8
Unifying Concepts
and Processes
•Systems, order, and
organization
•Evidence, models,
and explanation
•Change, constancy,
and measurement
•Evolution and
equilibrium
Science as Inquiry
Physical Science
Life Science
•Abilities necessary to
do scientific inquiry
•Understandings about
scientific inquiry
•Properties and
changes of properties
in matter
•Motions and forces
•Transfer of energy
•Populations and
ecosystems
•Diversity and
adaptations of
organisms
Earth and Space
Science
Science and
Technology
Science in Personal
and Social
Perspectives
History and Nature of
Science
•Structure of the Earth
system
•Earth’s history
•Earth in the solar
system
•Understandings about
science and technology
•Populations,
resources, and
environments
•Natural hazards
•Risks and benefits
•Science and
technology in society
•Science as a human
endeavor
•Nature of science
•History of science
NSES Content Standards,
Grades 9-12
Unifying Concepts and
Processes
•Systems, order, and
organization
•Evidence, models, and
explanation
•Change, constancy, and
measurement
•Evolution and
equilibrium
Science as Inquiry
Physical Science
Life Science
•Abilities necessary to do
scientific inquiry
•Understandings about
scientific inquiry
•Chemical reactions
•Motions and forces
•Conservation of energy
and increase in disorder
•Interactions of energy
and matter
•Biological evolution
•Interdependence of
organisms
•Behavior of organisms
Earth and Space
Science
Science and
Technology
Science in Personal
and Social
Perspectives
History and Nature of
Science
•Energy in the Earth
system
•Geochemical cycles
•Origin and evolution of
the Earth system
•Understandings about
science and technology
•Population growth
•Natural resources
•Environmental quality
•Natural and humaninduced hazards
•Science and technology
in local, national, and
global challenges
•Science as a human
endeavor
•Nature of scientific
knowledge
•Historical perspectives
We’re all familiar with the
Weather
The state of the atmosphere at a given time
that includes temperature, precipitation,
humidity, pressure, winds.
Climate
• Global climate is driven by energy from the Sun and
modulated by atmospheric composition
• The average
weather for a region
over a long period
of time – 30 years
or more
• Determined by
latitude, altitude,
topography,
proximity to
oceans/position in
land mass
• Characterized by
temperature, winds,
and rainfall
You buy clothes
based on
climate
You wear clothes
based on
weather
The Challenge of Simulating the Global
Earth System
Atmosphere
Hydrosphere
Cryosphere
Biosphere
Timeline of Climate Model Development
Model Resolutions
R15
T42
T85
T170
Climate System Models
Global mean surface temperatures have
increased
Increase in
temperature tracks
carbon emissions
and CO2
~ highest level
of CO2 over
past 400 Kyrs
A Warming World…
NASA
450,000 yrs ago
time
today
100’s of
thousands
of years:Ice
Core Data
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeu et al., 2002,
Glaciers are Retreating Globally
In Switzerland…
In Alaska…
Qori Kalis Glacier,
Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru
between 1978 and 2000.
Courtesy of L. Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center
10-15% Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice
Revealed by NOAA Operational Satellites
Permafrost in the Arctic
is melting, leading to
infrastructure damage as
well as disrupting
subsistence life styles
Ice is breaking up earlier
on rivers and lakes in the
spring around the world
Rise in Global Mean Sea Level
250 Year Record of Leafing
Out Date of English Oaks
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
IPCC 2007
Summary for
Policymakers
Greenhouse gas
concentrations have
increased markedly as
a result of human
activities since 1750
and now far exceed
pre-industrial values.
– CO2 increase from
fossil fuel and land-use
changes
– Methane, nitrous oxide
due to agriculture
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC 2007
Summary for
Policymakers
Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal,
evident from
observations of
– Increases in global
average air and ocean
temperature
– Widespread melting of
snow and ice
– Rising global mean sea
level
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers
Warmth of the last half
century is unusual in at
least the previous 1300
years. The last time polar
regions were significantly
warmer than present for
an extended period (about
125,000 years ago),
reductions in polar ice
volume led to 4-6 meters
of sea level rise.
Natural Variations do not explain
observed climatic change
• Climate models with natural
forcing (including volcanic
and solar) do not reproduce
warming
• When increase in
greenhouse gases is
included, models do
reproduce warming
• Addition of increase in
aerosols (cooling) improves
agreement
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers
For the next 2 decades a warming of .2C/decade
is projected. Even if greenhouse gas/aerosol
concentrations had been constant at yr 2000,
further warming of .1C/decade would result due
to slow response of the ocean.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above
current rates will cause further warming and
induce many changes in global climate system
this century larger than those observed in the
last century.
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC Emission Scenarios
•
A1- rapid economic growth, population growth peaks and declines mid 2100s,
rapid introduction of new, more efficient technologies. Convergence among
regions, capacity building, cultural/social interactions, reduction in regional
differences in per capita income.
– A1B – balance across all sources
– A1FI – Fossil-fuel intensive energy solutions
– A1T – non fossil-fuel energy solutions
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A2 – heterogeneous world, self reliance, slow reduction in population growth,
economic development primarily regional, fragmented and slow growth in per
capita income and tech growth
B1 – convergent world, population peak mid 2100s and declines (like A1), rapid
change to service/information economy, reductions in material intensive,
introduction of clean, resource efficient technology, global solutions, improve
equity, but without addl climate initiatives
B2 – local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability
problems. Continuously increasing global population, at rate lower than A2,
intermediate economic development, less rapid and more diverse tech change
than in A1 and B1.
No scenarios include climate initiatives, meaning that none assume that UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change or emissions targets of Kyoto
Protocol are enacted
IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers
Higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and regional-scale
features, continuing currently observed trends:
– warming greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes (least
over Southern Ocean and parts of NA ocean)
– snow cover will contract
– widespread increases in thaw depth over most permafrost regions
– sea ice will shrink in both Arctic and Antarctic, in some projections late
summer sea ice disappears in the Arctic by latter part of 21st century
– very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation
events will continue to become more frequent
– likely that typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense
– extra-tropical storm tracks will move poleward
– precipitation at high latitude very likely to increase, while decreases are
likely in most subtropical land regions
– Very likely that meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean
will slow down during the 21st century. Average reduction by 2100 is
25% (0-50%). Very abrupt transition is very unlikely in 21st century.
Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries
due to the timescales associated with climate processes and
feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized
Under the Scenario A2…Business-As-Usual This
is What Happens to Arctic Sea Ice
Past and Future Rise in Sea Level
20,000 years ago
2200? ( + 5 meters)
Multiple new dynamic mechanisms for increased ice sheet
sensitivity to surface warming have been discovered
Zwally et al., (2002) Science
Alley et al. (2005) Science
Glacial Earthquakes on Greenland
Earthquake Locations
Annual Number of Quakes*
* 2005 bars capture only first 10 months of 2005
Location and frequency of glacial earthquakes on Greenland.
Seismic magnitudes are in range 4.6 to 5.1.
Source: Ekstrom, Nettles and Tsai, Science, 311, 1756, 2006.
Areas Under Water: Four Regions
Health Effect of Climate Change
Heat
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Temperature Rise 1
Sea level Rise 2
Extreme Weather
Events
Respiratory diseases
Vector-borne
Diseases
Water-borne
Diseases
Changes in water
availability,
infrastructure &
food supply
Environmental
Refugees
Heat Stress Mortality
Urban Heat islands
Ozone
Malaria
Dengue
West Nile Virus
Encephalitis
Hantavirus
Rift Valley Fever
Cholera
Cyclospora
Cryptosporidiosis
Campylobacter
Leptospirosis
Waste System failure
Runoff
Diarrhea
Toxic Red Tides
Malnutrition
Forced Migration
Overcrowding
Infectious diseases
Some Great Websites on Climate
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)http://www.ipcc.ch/index.html
US Global Change Research Program (lots of good stuff)http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.htm
World Health Organization (WHO) http://www.who.int/peh/climate/climate_and_health.htm
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) –
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html
National Snow and Ice Data Center (great cryosphere data)- http://nsidc.org/noaa/
National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/
Climate HotSpots Map (AMAZING!)- http://www.climatehotmap.org/index.html
Vital Climate Graphics (Great ppt Graphics)http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/index.htm
World View of Global Warming (photos)http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
Exploratorium Global Change Research Explorer http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/index.html
Global Environmental Change and Our Health http://www.pbs.org/journeytoplanetearth/johnshopkins/index.html
NCAR Education and Outreach Website – www.ncar.ucar.edu/eo
Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health
Course: Global Environment and Health
Facts do not cease to exist
because they are ignored
Aldous Huxley
We have a duty to all the world’s
people… and especially to the
children of the world, to whom
the future belongs
- UN Millennium Goals
• Extra slides (do not print out beyond this
point)
Extreme Events
Storms, Floods,
Droughts, Cyclones
• More frequent droughts and periods of intense
precipitation
• Direct loss of life and injury
• Indirect effects
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Loss of shelter
Population displacement
Contamination of water supplies
Loss of food production
Increased risk of infectious disease epidemics (diarrhoeal
and respiratory)
– Damage to infrastructure for provision of health services
Heat Waves
Impacts on human
health and
mortality, economic
impacts, ecosystem
and wildlife impacts
(Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004:
More intense, more
frequent and longer lasting
heat waves in the 21st
century, Science, 305, 994997)