Transcript Economic Highlights - Ministry of Finance

STATE OF ISRAEL
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT
ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
4th QUARTER 2008
February 2009
International Affairs Department
Contents
Main Characteristics
About the Economic Crisis
and Operation “Cast Lead”
Economic Figures
Balances
Note:
You can return to the
beginning of each chapter
by clicking this symbols on
the top of each slide.
International Comparisons
Israel and the OECD
International Treaties
Relevant Sites
Israel’s Economy:
Main Characteristics
Highly Educated Population.
Rapid Development of Technology &
High-Tech Industries.
Entrepreneurial Culture.
Open Economy.
High Trade intensity.
Economic Figures
Press for desired slide or continue:
5
6-7
The Financial Crisis and operation “Cast Lead”
Main Indicators and Forecast
8
GDP and GDP per Capita
9
Growth: Israel compared to the World
10
Major GDP Components
11
Exports of Goods and Services
12
Exports of Goods by Region
13
Main Trading Partners
14
Foreign Investments
15
Unemployment & Participation Rates
16
Inflation Rate
17
Inflation Rate Worldwide
18
Estimates for 2008
Back to Contents
Operation "Cast Lead" and the World
Economic Crisis
The economic indicators of the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2008, presented here
throughout the presentation, show that the global crisis has started affecting the
Israeli market.
Initiatives such as the acceleration program, the pension safety net and the
monetary program to increase liquidity are all aimed to offer new jobs, to protect
private savings and to promote continuous growth in Israel.
The impact of operation "Cast Lead" on Israel’s economy has been limited as most
businesses in Israel’s southwest, near the Gaza strip, continued to operate. Israel’s
financial and industrial center, located out of the rocket range, continued to operate
in full scale. The ports and other trade facilities continued to operate as usual,
ensuring the flow of goods in and out of the country were running smoothly.
This Issue of "Economic Highlights" offers you a review of the 3rd and 4th quarter
of 2008. A review of Israel's economy in 2008 and the full economic impacts of "Cast
lead" will be presented in our next issue.
5
Main Economic Indicators
Criteria
2008
2004
2005
2006
2007
GDP (current prices in $B)*
125.8
133.2
143.1
164.1
199
GDP Real Growth Rate (%)
5.0%
5.1%
5.2%
5.4%
4.1%
$28,169
$25,762
$27,409
GDP per Capita
(PPP adjusted)***
GDP per Capita Growth Rate
(%, Current prices)
(Estimated)
3.2%
3.3%
3.3%
3.5%
--
Exports (Goods & Services)** $B*
(As Percentage of GDP)
52.7
(41.9%)
57.2
(43.0%)
62.5
(43.7%)
70.9
(43.2%)
80.6
(40.5%)
Imports (Goods & Services)** $B*
(As Percentage of GDP)
52.3
(41.6%)
62.2
(46.7%)
62.0
(43.3%)
73.7
(44.9%)
84.7
(42.6%)
10.4%
9.0%
8.4%
7.3%
6%***
Unemployment Rate (%)
*Using public exchange rate.
** In current prices
*** Based on the 3rd quarter of 2008.
6
Main Economic Indicators
(con.)
Criteria
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Total Gross Debt (Percentage of GDP)
98.2%
94.3%
85.5%
79.8%
78.9%
Government Expenditure
(Percentage of GDP)
47.6%
45.5%
45.0%
44.2%
43.5%
Current Account Surplus (% of GDP)
2.4%
3.0%
5.6%
2.8%
1%
Inflation Rate ( CPI, end of year)
1.2%
2.4%
-0.1%
3.4%
3.8%
Moody’s: A1
(Stable)
S&P: A
(Stable)
Fitch: A
(Stable)
Credit Rating
( Long-term Foreign Bonds )
About Credit Rating: The government’s credit rating reflects the economy’s level of risk and
affects banks, companies and financial bodies in the market.
The rating creates a “ceiling” which acts as a benchmark to their bond pricing. Credit rating
indicates the macro-economic status of an economy and affects foreign investors’ decisions
whether to invest in the market.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Central Bureau of Statistics
7
GDP and GDP per Capita
(Annual rate of change (%), in Constant Prices)
In the past few years, Israel’s economy has enjoyed high growth rates.
In light of the world economic crisis, Israel’s growth has slowed down.
9.0
7.0
8.9
6.1
5.1
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.0
3.2
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.2 3.6
2 1.9
1.8
1.0
-1.0
3.3
5.1
0.0
-0.3
-2.6
-2.5
01
20
02
20
-3.0
-0.6
0.3
GDP
GDP per Capita
-5.0
08
20
08
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
3
Q
2
Q
1
Q
Source: Ministry of Finance.
03
20
00
20
* Estimate.
8
GDP Growth
Israel compared to Advanced Economies*
(Annual rate of change (%), in constant prices)
Since 2004, Israel’s growth rate has exceeded the average
growth rate of advanced economies.
6.0%
5.4%
5.2%
5.1%
5.0%
5.0%
4.1%
4.0%
3.2%
3.0%
2.0%
3.1%
2.6%
2.4%
1.4%
1.9% 1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
1.0%
0.0%
-0.3%
World Growth
-0.6%
-1.0%
Israel Growth
-2.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008**
* Weighted average: US - 40%, Euro area – 42.8%, Japan – 2.7%, UK – 6.5%, Asian Newly Industrialized countries - 8%
** Estimate.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
9
Major GDP Components
(Annual rate of change (%), in constant prices)
Public Consumption grew by
2.9% in 2008.
Private Consumption grew
by 3.5%.
17.5
18
15.3
13.3
13
10.1
9.9
8
6.1
5.4
3.7
3
-2
8.6
0.9
3.0
4.2
9
8.8
6.9
6.6
4
2.7
3.7
2.9
1.6
1.9
-1.9
-2.6
-4.7
-7
1.8
-3.8
Exports grew by 3.6%.
-9.8
-12
2004
Source: Ministry of Finance
2005
2006
2007
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
Private Consumption
Government Consumption
Investment in Fixed Assets
Exports of Goods and Services
2008 Q3
10
Exports of Goods and
Services ($B)
In 2008, Exports grew by 3.6%.
25
20
15
4.9
5.2
5.6
5.2
6.4
5.8
5.8
10
5
11.5
11.9
12.7
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
13.6
14.5
15
15.2
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
0
Goods
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
Services
11
Exports of Goods by Region
(excluding Diamonds)
2007
North
America ,
31%
Rest of
Europe , 6% Africa , 3% Other , 11%
(USA: 28%)
European
Union
34%
Asia , 15%
European
Union , 34%
Other
9%
Africa
3%
Rest of
Europe
7%
Asia
16%
North America
31%
(USA: 28%)
2008
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
12
Israel’s Main Trading Partners
(US$ Billions, excluding diamonds)
20
18
China is becoming a
leading trade partner for
Israel
16
14
2008
11.6
12
10
8
6
4
18
16
1.9
7.1
5.1
2
0
14
12
1.5
10
4.3
3.5
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.2
2.1
2.3
1.8
1.6
0
1.6
1.2
1.8
1.8
1.9
0.8
2.2
1.2
1.4
0.7
1.9
1
1.3
B
um
gi
el
A
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
1.2
1.5
n
pa
Ja
ce
an
Fr
ey
rk
Tu
S
K
U
s
nd
ly
rla
Ita the
e
N
e
Th ny
a
m
er
G
na
hi
C
U
2007
1.6
1.9
6.9
2
2.5
um
gi
el
1.2
2.5
B
A
4
1.6
n
pa
Ja
ce
an
Fr
ey
rk
Tu
S
8
6
2
K
U
s
nd
ly
rla
Ita the
e
N
e
Th ny
a
m
er
G
na
hi
C
U
10
4
EXPORT
IMPORT
13
Net Foreign Investments in Israel
(B$)
17.8
18
16
Direct Investments
14.3
14.4
14
Total Investments
12
9.5
10
9.7
9.4
8
4.9
6
3.3
4
6
Direct Investments
5.1
2
5
4.3
Total Investments
4.3
4.3
2.4
1.6
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
3.7
4
3.3
2.9
3
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.2
1.8
2
2.4
2.5
1.7
1
0
2007 Q1
2007 Q2
Source: Ministry of Finance
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
14
Unemployment and Participation
(As % of Total Labor Force)
The Acceleration program, announced by the Ministry of Finance, is a package of
economic measures designed to accelerate activity in the Israeli economy, with
emphasis on the labor market.
8.0%
57.00%
7.8%
7.6%
56.5%
7.5%
56.50%
56.6%
56.5%
56.4%
7.0%
56.4%
7.2%
56.1%
56.00%
56.1%
6.7%
6.5%
55.50%
6.20%
6.00%
6.0%
55.00%
6.00%
Unemployment Rate
Participation in the Labor Force
5.5%
54.50%
2007 Q1
Q2
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics
Q3
Q4
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3
15
Inflation Rate
(Rate of Change in CPI, end of year)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 3.8% during 2008.
7%
6%
6.5%
5%
4%
3.8%
3%
3.4%
2%
1%
2.4%
1.3%
0.0% 1.4%
1.2%
-0.1%
0%
-1%
-1.9%
-2%
1999
2000
2001
2002
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Finance
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
16
Inflation Rate Worldwide
(Rate of Change in CPI, end of 2007)
Inflationary pressures in Israel have decreased, as a result of the world crisis.
The CPI registered negative growth rates in October and November 2008.
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3.4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
ey
rk
Tu r y
ga
un
H
d
an
el
Ic
d
an
el
Ir
o
ic
ex
M
el
ra
Is
SA
U d
an
nl
Fi al
g
tu
or y
P
an
m
er
G
um
gi
el
B y
a
w
or and
N
l
er
itz
w
S
n
pa
Ja
Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics, OECD
17
Growth of Main GDP
Components 2008
Criteria
2008 (Estimated)
Real GDP
+ 4.1%
Business GDP
+ 4.6%
Exports
+ 3.6%
Private Consumption
+ 3.9%
Public Consumption
+ 2.9%
Investment in Fixed Assets
+ 5.5%
Source: Ministry of Finance
18
Balances
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20 Gross Public Debt
21 Budget Deficit ;
General Government Expenditure
22 Current Account ;
Net Foreign Debt
23 Gross Tax Burden
Back to Contents
Gross Public Debt
(as percentage of GDP)
Since 2003, the gross public debt has been on a downward trend.
99.9%
100%
97.6%
98.2%
94.3%
95%
90%
85.5%
85%
79.8%
78.50%
80%
75%
2002
Source: Ministry of Finance
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
20
Budget Deficit and
General Government Expenditure
50.40%
2003
47.60%
General Government
Expenditure (% of GDP)
2004
45.50%
2005
45.00%
2006
44.20%
2007
43.50%
52.00%
50.00%
48.00%
44.00%
42.00%
40.00%
5.30%
2003
3.60%
2004
1.80%
2005
2006
46.00%
2008
Budget Deficit
1.00%
2007 0.00%
2.10%
2008
0.00%
1.00%
Source: Ministry of Finance
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
21
Current Account Balance and
Net Foreign Debt
In 2003, current account turned positive,
conversely with the decrease of the net foreign debt.
5.6%
6.0%
5.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2.4%
3.0%
2.0%
2.8%
Net Foreign Debt
1.2%
1%
-1.3% -0.8%
(% of GDP)
1.0%
0.6%
0.0%
5%
-1.0%
-2.0%
0%
2001 2002
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
-2.2%
-5%
-5.5%
-10%
Current Account
Surplus
(% of GDP)
-12.6%
-15%
-17.1%
-20%
-25%
-24.9%
-30%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
-27.9%
2008*
* As of 30/06/08, as percentage of 2007 GDP.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
22
Gross Tax Burden
(as % of GDP)
Tax burden has been in the vicinity of OECD average since 2003
37.30% 37.30%
36.80%
36.60%
36.30%
36.40%
35.80% 35.80% 35.90%
34.30%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
- - - OECD countries average: 35.9%*
Source: Ministry of Finance, OECD
*As of 2006
23
International comparisons
and additional data
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25
Central Bank Interest Rates
26
NASDAQ and Tel Aviv 100 Indices
27
Israel’s Credit Rating
28
Global Competitiveness Index
29
Global Competitiveness Index: Selected Issues
31
Business Competitiveness Index ;
Network Readiness Index
Back to Contents
Central Bank Interest Rates
Israel vs. U.S.A
Coinciding with the decrease of the FED’s interest rate, BOI interest
rate has been steadily decreased during the last quarter of 2008.
6%
U.S. Federal Funds Rate
5%
Bank of Israel Rate (BOI)
4%
3%
2%
1.00%
0%
0.0%
2
1
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1%
2006
Source: Bank of Israel (BOI), Federal Reserve
2007
2008
2009
25
NASDAQ & Tel Aviv 100
(monthly average)
Tel Aviv 100 reacts to the current events similarly to the NASDAQ,
yet less drastically.
4,000.00
1200
Nasdaq (left scale)
1100
3,500.00
1000
Tel Aviv 100 (right scale)
900
3,000.00
800
2,500.00
700
600
2,000.00
500
400
1,500.00
300
1,000.00
200
l
Ju
y
y
08
20
08
20
ry
07
20
a
nu
Ja
l
Ju
07
20
06
20
n
Ja
l
Ju
06
20
05
20
n
Ja
l
Ju
05
20
04
20
04
20
n
Ja
l
Ju
n
Ja
Source: Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) and the Ministry of Finance.
26
Israel’s Credit Rating 1992-2008
In January 2009, The Credit Rating Agencies Moody's and
S&P Reconfirmed Israel's Credit Ratings
A1/A+
A2/A
A3/ABaa1/BBB+
Baa2/BBB
Moody's A1 Stable
S&P A Stable
Fitch A Stable
Baa3 /BBB-
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Regarding operation "Cast Lead", S&P commented that "We do not
expect the conflict with Hamas in Gaza to have significantly damaged
the sovereign's creditworthiness".
Source: Credit Rating Agencies, Accountant General
27
Global Competitiveness Index,
2008-2009
Israel Ranks 23rd out of 134 Countries
2
1
6
9
16
22
23
28
24
29
49
42
32
51
61
67
d
A
S lan
U
er
it z
w
S d
an
nl
Fi
n
pa
Ja
ce
an
Fr d
an
el
Ir
el
nd
ra
la
Is e a
Z
ew
N
le
hi
C
in
pa
S ia
on
st ia
en
E
S
v
lo
ly
Ita
a
si
us
R ia
at
ro
C e
ec
re
G
Countries that have been invited for open discussions for joining the OECD.
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Index, 2008-9
28
Global Competitiveness Index, 2008/9
SELECTED CATEGORIES
Venture Capital Availability
Availability of Scientists & Engineers
United States
Finland
Sweden
Japan
Israel
India
Denmark
United States
Israel
Singapore
Puerto Rico
Australia
Denmark
Estonia
Greece
New Zealand
Belgium
Switzerland
Netherlands
0
5
10
15
20
25 RANK
0
Quality of Scientific Research Institutions
United States
Israel
Japan
Canada
United States
Germany
Denmark
Finland
Israel
Netherlands
Finaland
Singapore
United Kingdom
France
France
Norway
Iceland
Estonia
Hong Kong SAR
5
10
15
20
25 RANK
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Index, 2008-9
20
30 RANK
Company Spending on R&D
Switzerland
0
10
0
5
10
15
20
25 RANK
29
Global Competitiveness Index, 2008/9
SELECTED CATEGORIES (con.)
Strength of Investor Protection
Availability of Latest Technologies
New Zealand
Finland
Hong Kong SAR
Israel
Israel
India
Ireland
Sweden
United States
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
Japan
Korea, Rep.
Norway
Germany
Denmark
Belgium
Chile
Norway
0
5
10
15
20
0
25 RANK
Utility Patents
Hong Kong SAR
Israel
United Kingdom
Switzerland
New Zealand
Sweden
Singapore
Canada
Germany
Luxemburg
Israel
Australia
Ireland
UK
Canada
Belgium
United States
Italy
Iceland
5
10
15
10
15
20
25 RANK
Legal Rights Index
Taiwan, China
0
5
20
25 RANK
Source: World Economic Forum; Global Competitiveness Index, 2008-9
0
5
10
15
20 RANK
30
Israel’s Rank in Leading Indices
Network Readiness Index (NRI)* 2007-8
Denmark
Singapore
Netherlands
Korea
Hong Kong
Australia
Germany
Israel
Estonia
Portugal
Slovenia
Chile
Italy
Russia
Business
Competitiveness
Index
2008-9
5.78 (1)
5.58 (5)
5.44 (7)
5.43 (9)
5.31 (11)
5.28 (14)
16
22
5.19 (16)
23
5.18 (18)
24
5.12 (20)
28
4.60 (28)
29
4.47 (30)
32
42
4.35 (34)
49
4.21 (42)
51
3.68 (72)
61
67
1
2
6
9
Countries that have been invited for open discussions for joining the OECD
Source: World Economic Forum; Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), 2006; Global Information Technology Report
*NRI: Measures the level of ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) development of nations [LINK TO SITE]
**GCI: Provides a holistic overview of factors critical to productivity and competitiveness [LINK TO SITE]
31
Israel and the OECD
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43 Real GDP growth in 2007-8
44 Unemployment Rate in 2007-8
45 GDP Based on PPP per Capita in 2006
Back to Contents
Real GDP Growth
(Annual percentage of change, partial list)
The global recession has influenced all of the OECD countries growth rates.
12%
10%
8%
5.3%
07’
4.1%
08’
6%
4%
2%
07’ 08’
2.6%
1.4%
0%
-2%
w
Ne
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es
at
St
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De
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Sw
ng
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i
Un
i
Un
n
ai
d
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Sp
Fi
da
na
Ca
en
ed
Sw
rg
u
bo
nd
la
Ire
el
ra
Is
ea
m
xe
r
Ko
Lu
ey
ic
rk
bl
Tu
pu
Re
ak
ov
Sl
ea
ar
ro
Eu
D
EC
lO
ta
To
Source and projections: OECD and the Ministry of Finance, Israel
33
Unemployment Rate
(average)
While the OECD average unemployment rate grew between 2007 – 2008,
Israel’s Unemployment rate decreased by 1.3%.
08’
07’
Israel
Finland
Greece
Portugal
08’ 07’
Sw itzerland
Korea
Norw ay
Change 07’-08’
Hungary
United States
Ireland
Spain
08’
07’
Euro area
08’
07’
Total OECD
-2%
1%
Source: OECD, Ministry of Finance
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
34
GDP per capita
based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)
2007, (in US$)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
ey
rk
Tu o
ic
ex
M d
n
la
Po ary bl ic
ng ep u
Hu R
ak
ov l
Sl
ic
ga b l
rt u pu
Po Re
h
ec
Cz
a
re
Ko
el
ra
Is
ly
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n
ai
e
Sp e
c
ag
a n ver
Fr
A
D
EC
O any
m
er
G
m
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pa i ng
Ja
K
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it e
Un d
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nla
Fi ark
d
nm la n
De e a
Z
w nd
Ne erla
itz
Sw d
s
lan ate
Ire St
d
it e
Un y
a
rw urg
No bo
m
xe
Lu
Source: Economics and Research Department calculations from OECD and the Central Bureau of Statistics data
35
International Treaties
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37
Israel’s Free Trade Agreements
38-9
Avoidance of Double Taxation Agreements
40
Cooperation in Industrial R&D Agreements
41-2
Protection of Investments Agreements
43
International Organization Memberships
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Israel’s Free Trade
Agreements
1985
USA
1999
Mexico
1992
EFTA
2000
European Union
(Association Agreement)
1997
Turkey
1997
Canada
* The agreement with Estonia has only been signed initially
2007
MERCOSUR*
37
Avoidance of Double
Taxation Agreements
Austria
Croatia
Hungary
Belarus
Denmark
India
Belgium
Estonia *
Ireland
Brazil
Ethiopia
Italy
Bulgaria
Finland
Jamaica
Canada
France
Japan
China
Germany
Latvia
Czech
Republic
Greece
Lithuania
* The agreement with Estonia has only been signed initially
38
Avoidance of Double
Taxation Agreements (con.)
*
Luxembourg
Russia
Switzerland
Mexico
Singapore
Thailand
Moldova
Slovakia
The Netherlands
Norway
Slovenia
Turkey
Philippines
South Africa
Ukraine
Portugal *
South Korea
United Kingdom
Poland
Spain
Uzbekistan
Romania
Sweden
USA
The agreement with Portugal has been recently ratified
39
Cooperation in Industrial R&D
Agreements
Austria
India
Sweden
Belgium
Ireland
UK
Canada
Italy
USA
China
Korea
Finland
Netherlands
France
Portugal
Germany
Singapore
Hong Kong
Spain
40
Protection of Investment
Agreements
Albania
Croatia
Guatemala
Argentina
Cyprus
India
Armenia
Czech Republic
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
El-Salvador
Korea
Belarus
Estonia
Latvia
Bulgaria
Georgia
China
Germany
41
Protection of Investment
Agreements (con.)
Lithuania
Turkmenistan
Moldova
Ukraine
Poland
Uruguay
Romania
Uzbekistan
Slovakia
Slovenia
QIZ Agreement
South Africa
Egypt
Thailand
Jordan
Turkey
42
International Organization*
Memberships:
BIS | BSEC (observer) | CE (observer)
CERN (observer) | EBRD | FAO | IADB | IAEA
WBG – IBRD, IFC, IDA, MIGA | ICAO | ICC | ICCT (signatory) |
ICFTU | IFAD | IFRCS (observer) | ILO | IMF
IMO | Interpol | IOC | IOM | ISO | ITU | OAS (observer) |
OECD (candidate) | OPCW (signatory) OSCE (partner) |
PCA | UN | UNCTAD | UNECE | UNEP | UNESCO | UNHCR
UNIDO | UPU | WCO | WFP | WHO | WIPO | WMO | WTOO
WTRO | WTO | ICSID
* Economic Organizations
43
Relevant Sites
International Affairs Department Homepage:
WWW.FINANCEISRAEL.MOF.GOV.IL
Government Institutions:
Ministry of Finance
OECD Stat Profile on Israel
Bank of Israel (BOI)
Central Bureau of Statistics
Israeli Government Portal
Israel Securities Authority
Ministry of Industry, Trade and Labor
OECD Israel
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We welcome your feedback!
Contact:
Ms. Ravit Friedberg
International Affairs Department
Ministry of Finance, Jerusalem, Israel
[email protected]
Click here for our website!
www.FINANCEISRAEL.mof.gov.il
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