Transcript 3 - Universidad de Zaragoza

Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF
THE EBRO WATER
TRANSFER
José Albiac
Servicio de Investigación Agroalimentaria. Unidad de Economía Agraria.
Diputación General de Aragón.
Antonio Valero, Javier Uche and Luis Serra
Centro de Investigación de Recursos y Consumos Energéticos (Fundación
CIRCE)
Universidad de Zaragoza (UZ)
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CONTENTS
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
A. EBRO TRANSFER AND SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT.
B. IRRIGATION WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE
SPANISH LEVANTE.
C. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE EBRO TRANSFER
AND THEIR ALTERNATIVES.
D. CONCLUSIONS.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
A. EBRO TRANSFER AND
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT.
A.1. WATER IN JOHANNESBOURG SUMMIT.
A.2. EU POLICY ON WATER.
A.3. AGREEMENTS ON ECONOMIC POLICY: THE
EBRO RIVER.
A.4. Annex: The Spanish scientific community.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
A.1. WATER IN
JOHANNESBOURG
Universidad de Zaragoza
KEY OUTCOMES – TYPE 1 AGREEMENTS
The summit reafirmed sustainable development as a
central element of the international agenda:
• Economic development
• Social development
• Environmental protection
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
A.1. WATER IN
JOHANNESBOURG
Universidad de Zaragoza
KEY OUTCOMES – TYPE 1 AGREEMENTS
Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption
• A 10 years framework of programmes
towards sustainable consumption and
production within the carrying capacity of
ecosystems...
• Encourage relevant authorities to take
sustainable development considerations into
account in decission making
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
A.1. WATER IN
JOHANNESBOURG
Universidad de Zaragoza
KEY OUTCOMES – TYPE 1 AGREEMENTS
Protecting and managing the natural resources
• Halve to 2015 the proportion of people
without access to safe drinking water and
sanitation
• Develop integrated water resources
management and water efficiency plans by
2005: integrated river basin, watershed and
groundwater management.
• ... the efficient use of water resources in
agriculture.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
A.1. WATER IN
JOHANNESBOURG
Universidad de Zaragoza
THE EU AT THE JOHANNESBOURG SUMMIT
The EU announced the “Water for Life”
intiative that seeks to engage partners to
meet goals for water and sanitation, firstly
in Africa and Central Asia
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A.2. EU POLICY ON
WATER
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
EU WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE
– The new EU water policy ambitiously
combines protection of ecological status
with long term water use and sustainable
development
– It is a new instrument for spatial planning
and integration of policies, a legal
framework of common approach,
principles, environmental and
sustainability objectives
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A.2. EU POLICY ON
WATER
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
EU WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE: Objectives
• Protect high ecological status and good
surface and ground water status
• Respect protected nature and drinking
water areas
• Pricing of water use
• One river basin district – One
management plan
• Extensive public consultation
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A.3. AGREEMENTS...
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
THE AGREEMENTS ON WATER POLICY ARE:
• The integrated water management at
basin level: One river basin district – One
management plan
• Pricing of water use and the Full Cost
Recovery concept to control the water
demand management.
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A.3. AGREEMENTS...
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
ACCORDING TO THOSE AGREEMENTS, SOME
DEFECTS ARE DETECTED IN THE EBRO
TRANSFER (NHP 2000):
• The detailed economic analysis of the
effects on water price for irrigation (80%
consumption in Spain) in the Spanish
Levante is not given.
• The local analysis of the diverted cost and
their alternatives is not rigorously
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analyzed in the NHP.
A.3. AGREEMENTS...
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
THESE TWO ISSUES ARE SO IMPORTANT
SO THAT WE CONSIDER THEY MUST
BE CAREFULLY ANALYZED BEFORE
TO PUT INTO EFFECT THE WATER
TRANSFER PROPOSED IN THE NHP
2000.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
B. IRRIGATION WATER
MANAGEMENT IN THE SPANISH
LEVANTE
B.1.
B.2.
B.3.
B.4.
B.5.
B.6.
QUESTIONS EXAMINED
RESULTS
NHP INCONSISTENCY.
TRANSFER SUBSIDIES.
DESALINATION.
SUMMARY.
13
B.1. QUESTIONS
EXAMINED
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
Study on agricultural water demand
management and supply policy
• The study considers water demand management as
an alternative to the supply policy of the Ebro water
transfer, proposed by the Spanish National
Hydrologic Plan (NHP, 560 hm3 for irrigation in the
Levante from the expected 820 hm3/y).
• The National Hydrological Plan examines the effects
of the water transfer on net revenue, agricultural
production and employment, in the Levante
irrigation area. But the procedure used in the NHP is
excessively simple and poorly supported.
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B.1. QUESTIONS
EXAMINED
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Scope: 35 counties,
423.000 ha of
irrigated acreage
• 94% Valencia
• 80% Murcia
• 86% Almería
Crops:Orange, mandarin,
lemon, peach, apricot and
almond trees, vineyards,
olive trees, lettuce, tomato,
artichoke, melon, pepper,
onion, watermelon, bean,
pumpkin, cucumber,
broccoli, potato, wheat,
barley, corn, rice, alfalfa,
and sunflower. Tomato,
pepper, melon, bean, and
watermelon crops can be
cultivated protected (green
house) or not protected.
Universidad de Zaragoza
Methodology: Linear
programming
Objective function: Net
revenue
•
•
•
•
80 crop activities
and 60 constraints
22 soil constraints
12 water constraints
12 labor constraints
Study financed by
the Spanish Ministry
of Environment and
the Aragón Govern15
ment
B.1. QUESTIONS
EXAMINED
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
Scenarios considered
Two demand management and an offer management
scenarios:
• In the first scenario, aquifer overexploitation is prohibited.
• In the second scenario, a price raise is considered in order
to calculate the price of water that balances the global
water demand.
• The third scenario studies the net revenue at real costs of
water transferred by the Ebro River or desalted seawater.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.2. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
First scenario: Elimination
of Overexploitation
Larger losses
•
•
•
•
Almería
Campo Dalias
Bajo Almanzora
Campo Níjar-Bajo Andarax
• Murcia
• Valle del Guadalentín
• Noreste
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.2. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
First scenario: Elimination of Overexploitation
• A fall of 20 percent in the final agricultural
production and net revenue. Nearly 70 percent of the
losses of net revenue, that’s 204 million € of 306 in
losses, occur in Almería (South basin).
• The counties with greatest losses in Almería are
those which have very profitable crops, and in
Segura those which bear the greatest reduction of
available water: in Campo Dalias revenue and net
revenue fall 378 and 180 million €, and in Valle del
Guadalentín they fall 103 and 44 million €,
respectively.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.2. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
Second scenario: Price increases
• An increase of 0,12 €/m3 reduces the size of the
water project from 820 hm3 to 379 hm3 with a cost
to farmers of 294 million € net annual revenue, that
could be offered by the administration or by other
water users.
• An increase of 0,18 €/m3 eliminates water scarcity in
Levante at a cost of 423 million € for farmers,
remaining only a deficit of 68 hm3 in Segura and 49
hm3 in South. This amount could be paid by the
administration or other water use groups, so that
the society doesn’t carry out the investment of more
than 4 billion €.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.3. NHP
INCONSISTENCY
Universidad de Zaragoza
Severe problem of inconsistency of the
National Hydrologic Plan in the Segura basin
• The diverted water will have high costs in the range 0,190,75 €/m3 depending on the county, well above the low
price that farmers pay now, and this elevated water price
will only pay for itself in counties with high profit crops.
• The volume of diverted water that Levante counties can
absorb at this price is 863 hm3 in Júcar, 215 hm3 in Segura
and 112 hm3 in South. These quantities should be compared
with the allocations by NHP, which are 141 hm3 in Júcar, 362
hm3 in Segura and 58 hm3 in South: INCONSISTENCY.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.3. NHP
INCONSISTENCY
Universidad de Zaragoza
Effective water
demand, compared
with the volume of
over-exploitation
and irrigation
guarantee
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.4. TRANSFER
SUBSIDIES
Universidad de Zaragoza
• In Segura, if a surcharge is placed on the present
urban and industrial water usage in the Murcia
region (plus the transfer allotment), in order to
subsidize in 0,38-0,59 €/m3 the allocation for
agricultural and environmental use, the surcharge
will reach 0,68 €/m3. The resulting price would be
about 1,59 €/m3, similar to the price paid in the
Canary Islands.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.5. DESALINATION
Universidad de Zaragoza
Cost of desalination is
0,52 €/m3, including
distribution costs
Desalination cost is lower
in the following coastal
counties:
• Valle del Guadalentín
• Bajo Almanzora
• Campo Nijar-Bajo
Andarax
• Campo Dalias
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.6. SUMMARY
Universidad de Zaragoza
Demand Management Measures
Banning Aquifer Over-exploitation
- losses in net revenue 305 million €
but Almería 203 million €
- ↓ water demand 454 hm3
Increase of Water Prices in 0,12 €/m3
- losses in net revenue 294 million €
- ↓ water demand 441 hm3
Increase of Water Prices in 0,18 €/m3
- losses in net revenue 423 million €
- ↓ water demand 703 hm3
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
B.6. SUMMARY
Universidad de Zaragoza
Supply Management Measures
Ebro Transfer
- investment 6.000 million € (expected)
- water costs 0,19 to 0,75 €/m3
Problem with Ebro transfer: not enough “effective water demand”
in Segura. Subsidy to maintain present low prices 263 million €.
Desalination
- water cost 0,52 €/m3
- effective water demand 287 hm3
Desalination coupled with an increase of 0,12 €/m3 in agricultural
water prices, balances water supply and demand in Levante
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
C. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE
EBRO TRANSFER AND THEIR
ALTERNATIVES
C.1.
C.2.
C.3.
C.4.
C.5.
C.6.
OBJECTIVE
HYPOTHESIS
RESULTS. AVERAGE AND LOCAL ANALYSIS.
EXTENDED ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVES
PROPOSALS
C.7. CLOSURE
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.1. OBJECTIVE
Universidad de Zaragoza
The main objective of the research is to
calculate and analyze the average and
local costs of the Ebro Transfer (ET), and to
compare the results with other feasible
alternatives and finally, propose a plan for
each receiving basin avoiding the use of the
ET.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.2. HYPOTHESIS
Universidad de Zaragoza
Calculation of the investment costs:
• The methodology of the Draft Bill of the NHP (AE
volume) to evaluate the cost of the infraestructure:
“Valoración general de obras hidraúlicas para estudios de
planificación y viabilidad, (CEDEX, 1998)” .
• The available information included in the Report
“Memoria-Resumen para la evaluación de impacto ambiental
del proyecto de transferencias autorizadas por la Ley del
Plan Hidrológico Nacional, (Trasagua, 2002)”
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.2. HYPOTHESIS
Universidad de Zaragoza
The main differences with respect the
economic analysis of the Draft Bill of the NHP
2000, are:
• The amortization period of channels and electromechanic
components is taken to 25 years (4% interest rate).
• New dams included in the document proposed by Trasagua
(Marquesado, Azorín) are analyzed.
• The compensation to hydroelectric companies and new
lines to supply the pumping stations is estimated.
• The minimum cost of the Ebro Delta Integral Plan (PIDE)
included in the NHP is accounted.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.3. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
• The resulting investment cost of the new route is
only the 90,3% calculated in the NHP (AE volume,
table 21, p. 107): 3.400 million €.
• The energy cost is on average 1,781 kWh/m3
(2,127 only elevations) and 0,08 €/m3.
• The resulting average cost of the new path
increases with respect to the proposed in the NHP
2000 (0,5 €/m3 vs. 0,31 €/m3): 0,537 €/m3 and
0,337 €/m3 respectively for the South and North
path.
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.3. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
Which is the effect of the amortization period
in the project (4%)?
Average cost of transferred water depending on the
payback period of the investment (interest rate=4%)
0,6
€/m 3
0,56
0,52
0,48
0,44
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
years
50
31
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.3. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
And the effect of the interest rate (at 25
years)?
Average cost of transferred water depending on the
interest rate (25 years)
0,65
€/m
3
0,6
0,55
0,5
0,45
0,4
interest rate (%)
0,35
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
32
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.3. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
The local economic analysis of the WTT will
try to answer the problem that arises in the
question Nº 13 of the UE with respect the
Spanish EAE of the NHP 2000:
“...it is assumed that the price of diverted water will
be the same independently of the receiving
zone...[]...is this the right way to analyze the
economic analysis?”
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.3. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
The local economic analysis of the WTT
shows strong differences in resulting costs
Ebro River Transfer: Local costs at every destination
Almería, 79 hm3
0,8
€/m3
Antiplano, 42 hm3
0,7
3
Almanzora, 84 hm
0,6
Average cost
0,5
3
MI del ATS, 171 hm
3
Villena, 168 hm
3
Segura, 170 hm
0,4
3
Barcelona, 189 hm
0,3
3
Tous, 63 hm
Castellón S, 21 hm3
Cast.-Mijares, 42 hm3
Tarragona
0,2
Castellón N, 21 hm3
0,1
Ebro
0,0
0
L (km)
100
200
300
400
500
600
34
700
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.3. RESULTS
Universidad de Zaragoza
The local energy consumption is closely
related to the altitude of the new path:
EbroEbro
Transfer
profileEbro
and Transfer
energy
consumption
at every
Transfer:
energy
consumption
profile at every
pointpoint
3,0
3(m)
HH
(m)
608
598
Villena, 559
Villena
2,646
Antiplano, 540
Antiplano
Villena
Antiplano
530
2,409
2,338
La
Romana,506
La
LaRomana
Romana 486
kWh/m
600
600
2,5
500
500
2,0
400
400
422
1,938 La
La
Parrilla
Parrilla
La
Parrilla, 416
1,780
Sierra del Lugar
1,5
300
300
1,442
290
Abrera
288
1,066
220
1,0
200
200
0,723
158
203
Cuevasde
deVinromá
Vinromá, 194
Cuevas
0,754
Cuevas de Vinromá
3
kWh/m
2,5
2,364
Los Perales
100
100
200
200
200
2,0
Alhama
368
Tous, 177
Tous
ATS. 145
MIMI
deldel
ATS
Aguadulce
Aguadulce
Segura, 117
RíoRío
Segura
Tortosa
Tortosa
Tortosa
000
Aguadulce
2,161
1,512
1,5
312 ValladaSierra
Sierra
del
Lugar
del
Lugar
305
MI del
ATS:
3001,365
300
Vallada
Vallada, 292
Río Segura: 1,275
Alhama, 253
Alhama
Tous
LosLos
Perales
Perales, 240
1,0
El Vendrell
Sta,Magdalena
Magdalena, 125
Sta,
Sta, Magdalena
0,499
Abrera
Abrera
ElVendrell
Vendrell, 70
El
0,5
100
100
0,000
Turia
Turia
Turia
3,0
300
300
300
400
400
400
500
500
500
600
600
600
0,5
L (km)
L (km)
0,0
700
700
700
35
C.4. EXTENDED
ANALYSIS
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
But the real cost of transferred water in the
future could be higher, because:
• The effect of partial surpluses in the Ebro Basin (< 1.050
hm3/year, see fig. 93 of the ASH) is not taken into account:
1800
1600
hm 3/year
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
year
2000
36
C.4. EXTENDED
ANALYSIS
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
The cost increase due to of partial surpluses of the
Ebro Basin is another doubt for the UE:
“...for example, if half of that number (1.050
hm3) could be diverted, apparently the price
per cubic metre in the receiving region would
be 0,6 €. The Commission would confirm...”
(question Nº 12).
37
C.4. EXTENDED
ANALYSIS
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
The effect on partial surpluses of the Ebro Basin has been
evaluated
CostCost
increment
of transferred
water depending
on the diverted
of transferred
water depending
on the diverted
flow
flow
3002
210 hm3/y
210 hm3/y
(€/m 3)
(%)
1,75
250
1,5
200
315hm
hm33/y/y
315
1,25
150
1001
420 hm3/y
3
525 hm /y
3
735
3
735 hm
/y hm /y
50
0,75
3
hmhm
/y 3/y
945
1050 hm3/y 945
3
1,050 hm /y
0
0,5
0
10
630 hm3/y
failures
%%
ofof
failures
3
840
840 hm
hm3/y
/y
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
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Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.5. ALTERNATIVES
Universidad de Zaragoza
If we compare desalted and diverted water:
The average cost of desalted water is 0,48 €/m3.
Tous destination (63 hm3) is the point of
rupture of the economic analysis of the
Ebro Transfer
39
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
C.7. CLOSURE
Universidad de Zaragoza
The economic analysis of the water transfer
proposed by Trasagua (WTT) shows that:
• Water demand management techniques can be
applied where the cost of diverted water is lower
than the other large-scale alternative: desalination
(Barcelona, Júcar).
• The combined use of desalination, water
reuse and water demand management for
irrigation is cheaper than the diverted water
(Segura, Vinalopó and Almería).
40
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
D. CONCLUSIONS
D.1. MOTIVATION
D.2. IRRIGATION WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE
LEVANTE
D.3. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF EBRO TRANSFER.
D.4. QUI PRODES?
Long Term
Middle Term
Short Term
41
D.4. QUI PRODES?
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
Long Term
Should be agriculture/tourism be the same in
the next 50 years?
• Neighbouring countries (immigration, commercial
agreements,...)
• Climate change.
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D.4. QUI PRODES?
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
Middle Term
The urban demand patterns show that water
consumption is decreasing
In general, water is not profitable for farmers.
Maybe, irrigation lands with water rights should be
substituted by tourist leisure centers (golf courses,
in general including high-consuming activities).
• Is this sustainable tourism?
• Which are the real beneficiaries?
43
D.4. QUI PRODES?
Servicio de Investigación
Agroalimentaria
Universidad de Zaragoza
Short Term
The investment on water reuse, demand
management and desalination are low and
decreasing cost techniques.
Hydraulic works are a mature technology with high
investment costs. Finished works have in general a
higher budget than the expected.
• Which are the most favoured groups?
44