Transcript THORPEX and TIGGE

TECO on the WIS: Stakeholder Session
THORPEX and TIGGE
Walter Zwieflhofer
ECMWF
Slide 1
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 1
Accelerating improvements in the accuracy
of one-day to two weeks high-impact weather forecasts
for the benefit of society, economy and environment
2005
2014…
Slide 2
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 2
 THORPEX was established in May 2003 by the 14th WMO
Congress as a ten-year international global atmospheric
research and development programme
 THORPEX is under the auspices of the WMO
Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
 THORPEX Goals:
 To reduce and mitigate natural disasters
 To fully realise the societal and economic benefits of improved
weather forecasts,
especially in developing and least developed countries
Slide 3
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 3
THORPEX International Science Plan
 Research on weather forecasts from 1 - 14 days lead time
 Four research sub-programmes:
 Predictability and Dynamical Processes
 Observing Systems
 Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies
 Societal and Economic Applications
 Emphasis on
 Targeted observations
Slide 4
 Ensemble predictions
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 4
AMMA – THORPEX Collaboration
Slide 5
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 5
Driftsondes – to fill critical data gaps
Zero-pressure
or
Super Pressure
Balloon
IRIDIUM
LEO Satellite
~5 8,
0
50 - 100 ft
00 mb
Sondes
Commanded
for Release
Gondola
(20 to 50 sonde capacity)
Slide 6
NORTH
AMERICA
ATLANTIC OCEAN
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
EUROPE
Slide 6
Driftsonde in the vicinity of TC Gordon
20000
18000
16000
Temperature
RH
14000
Height
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-100
-50
0
Temperature and Rh
50
Tropical cyclone
Gordon
100
Slide 7
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 7
TIGGE
 THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble
 Key objectives of TIGGE:
 Enhanced collaboration on development of ensemble prediction,
internationally and between operational centres and universities
 New methods of combining ensembles from different sources
and of correcting for systematic errors (biases, spread over/under-estimation)
 A deeper understanding of the feasibility of interactive ensemble
system responding dynamically to changing uncertainty
(including use for adaptive observing and on-demand ensembles)
 The development of a prototype future Global Interactive
Forecasting System
Slide 8
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 8
The TIGGE core dataset
 Global ensemble forecasts to around 14 days generated
routinely at different centres around the world
 Outputs collected in near real time and stored in a
common format for access by the research community
 Easy access to long series of data is necessary for
applications such as bias correction and the optimal
combination of ensembles from different sources
Slide 9
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 9
Phased implementation of the archive
 Phase 1: multiple instances, low development effort
 Later: distributed approach, higher development effort
ECMWF
NCAR
Phase 1
Archive
Centres
Slide 10
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 10
CMA
TIGGE Phase 1 data providers
 Already sending data routinely:
 ECMWF
 JMA
 UK Met Office
 Other contributors that will start sending data soon:
 BOM
 CMA
 CPTEC
 KMA
 MSC
 NCEP
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 11
Slide 11
Homogeneity of the TIGGE database
 Homogeneity is paramount for TIGGE to succeed
 The more consistent the archive the easier it will be to develop
applications
 There are three aspects to homogeneity:
 Common terminology
 Common data format
 Definition of an agreed list of products
 Data providers must ensure that they provide their data
according to the agreed TIGGE standards
 Archive Centres cannot accept the additional
responsibility of transforming data into the right format
Slide 12
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 12
Common terminology is required
 Agree to use the same names (which has implications for
existing applications)
 All fields should be described with the same attributes (dates,
level, step, parameter, etc.)
 Required for cataloguing and search
NCEP
precipitation (precip)
ECMWF
TP (Total Precipitation)
mean sea level pressure (prmsl) MSL
T 2 meters (t2m)
2T
Slide 13
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 13
Choice of data format: GRIB edition 2
 Only WMO standard that supports ensemble data
without the need of local extensions
 The NAEFS community is committed to using it
 The TIGGE Archive Centres
 Have identified the list of GRIB2 codes, tables and templates to
use for each of the fields of the TIGGE database
 Are providing guidelines (best practices) on how all TIGGE fields
should be coded in GRIB2
 Have a website that provides examples of properly encoded
model output
 TIGGE will speed up the migration to GRIB edition 2
Slide 14
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 14
Internet Bandwidth
FTP get between ECMWF, NCAR and CMA (a few months ago)
Aggregate rate using FTP get (client - server)
12000
10000
KBytes/second
8000
ncar-ecmwf
ncar-cma
cma-ncar
cma-ecmwf
ecmwf-ncar
ecmwf-cma
100 GB in 12 hours
6000
4000
2000
Slide 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Number of parallel streams
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 15
85
90
95
100
Completeness
 The objective is to have 100% complete datasets at the
Archive Centres
 Completeness may not be achieved for two reasons:
 The transfer of the data to the Archive Centre fails
 Operational activities at a data provider are interrupted and back
filling past runs is impractical
 Incomplete datasets are often very difficult to use
 Most of the current tools used for ensemble forecasts
assume a fixed number of members from day to day
 These tools will have to be rewritten
Slide 16
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 16
Achievements so far
 Commitment from institutes willing to act as Archive
Centres has been secured
 Commitment from many contributors has been secured
 Definition of the database content (list of variables)
 Data format has been agreed (GRIB2)
 Transport mechanism for the data ingestion has been
chosen (LDM)
 Data access policy has been established
 TIGGE Archive Centres have started to collect data
 Active collaboration between CMA, NCAR and ECMWF
Slide 17 work as a team
has been established – Archive Centres
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 17
Milestones for 2007 and 2008
 Provide access to researchers via the infrastructure
already existing at the Archive Centres
 Enhance the TIGGE infrastructure to enable real-time
access to forecast data to contribute to THORPEX
activities related to:

International Polar Year field campaigns

Beijing 2008 Olympics
Slide 18
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 18
Will TIGGE be compatible with the WIS?
 TIGGE Archive Centres are ECMWF, NCAR and CMA
 All three are represented in the ICG on the WIS
 Link within ECMWF
 Project management for SIMDAT, one of the WIS building blocks
 Chairing the TORPEX TIGGE working group
Slide 19
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 19
Relationship to the WIS
 THORPEX is under the auspices of WMO Commission for
Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
 The TIGGE data sets will become a key resource for
 Research into multi-model ensembles forecasts
 Development of societal and economic applications based on
multi-model ensemble forecasts
 The TIGGE data is therefore an excellent candidate for
the type of cross-cutting information that users will be
able to discover and retrieve through the WIS
Slide 20
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 20