THORPEX and TIGGE
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Transcript THORPEX and TIGGE
TECO on the WIS: Stakeholder Session
THORPEX and TIGGE
Walter Zwieflhofer
ECMWF
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
Slide 1
Accelerating improvements in the accuracy
of one-day to two weeks high-impact weather forecasts
for the benefit of society, economy and environment
2005
2014…
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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THORPEX was established in May 2003 by the 14th WMO
Congress as a ten-year international global atmospheric
research and development programme
THORPEX is under the auspices of the WMO
Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
THORPEX Goals:
To reduce and mitigate natural disasters
To fully realise the societal and economic benefits of improved
weather forecasts,
especially in developing and least developed countries
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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THORPEX International Science Plan
Research on weather forecasts from 1 - 14 days lead time
Four research sub-programmes:
Predictability and Dynamical Processes
Observing Systems
Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies
Societal and Economic Applications
Emphasis on
Targeted observations
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Ensemble predictions
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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AMMA – THORPEX Collaboration
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Driftsondes – to fill critical data gaps
Zero-pressure
or
Super Pressure
Balloon
IRIDIUM
LEO Satellite
~5 8,
0
50 - 100 ft
00 mb
Sondes
Commanded
for Release
Gondola
(20 to 50 sonde capacity)
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NORTH
AMERICA
ATLANTIC OCEAN
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
EUROPE
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Driftsonde in the vicinity of TC Gordon
20000
18000
16000
Temperature
RH
14000
Height
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-100
-50
0
Temperature and Rh
50
Tropical cyclone
Gordon
100
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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TIGGE
THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble
Key objectives of TIGGE:
Enhanced collaboration on development of ensemble prediction,
internationally and between operational centres and universities
New methods of combining ensembles from different sources
and of correcting for systematic errors (biases, spread over/under-estimation)
A deeper understanding of the feasibility of interactive ensemble
system responding dynamically to changing uncertainty
(including use for adaptive observing and on-demand ensembles)
The development of a prototype future Global Interactive
Forecasting System
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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The TIGGE core dataset
Global ensemble forecasts to around 14 days generated
routinely at different centres around the world
Outputs collected in near real time and stored in a
common format for access by the research community
Easy access to long series of data is necessary for
applications such as bias correction and the optimal
combination of ensembles from different sources
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Phased implementation of the archive
Phase 1: multiple instances, low development effort
Later: distributed approach, higher development effort
ECMWF
NCAR
Phase 1
Archive
Centres
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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CMA
TIGGE Phase 1 data providers
Already sending data routinely:
ECMWF
JMA
UK Met Office
Other contributors that will start sending data soon:
BOM
CMA
CPTEC
KMA
MSC
NCEP
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Homogeneity of the TIGGE database
Homogeneity is paramount for TIGGE to succeed
The more consistent the archive the easier it will be to develop
applications
There are three aspects to homogeneity:
Common terminology
Common data format
Definition of an agreed list of products
Data providers must ensure that they provide their data
according to the agreed TIGGE standards
Archive Centres cannot accept the additional
responsibility of transforming data into the right format
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Common terminology is required
Agree to use the same names (which has implications for
existing applications)
All fields should be described with the same attributes (dates,
level, step, parameter, etc.)
Required for cataloguing and search
NCEP
precipitation (precip)
ECMWF
TP (Total Precipitation)
mean sea level pressure (prmsl) MSL
T 2 meters (t2m)
2T
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Choice of data format: GRIB edition 2
Only WMO standard that supports ensemble data
without the need of local extensions
The NAEFS community is committed to using it
The TIGGE Archive Centres
Have identified the list of GRIB2 codes, tables and templates to
use for each of the fields of the TIGGE database
Are providing guidelines (best practices) on how all TIGGE fields
should be coded in GRIB2
Have a website that provides examples of properly encoded
model output
TIGGE will speed up the migration to GRIB edition 2
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Internet Bandwidth
FTP get between ECMWF, NCAR and CMA (a few months ago)
Aggregate rate using FTP get (client - server)
12000
10000
KBytes/second
8000
ncar-ecmwf
ncar-cma
cma-ncar
cma-ecmwf
ecmwf-ncar
ecmwf-cma
100 GB in 12 hours
6000
4000
2000
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Number of parallel streams
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85
90
95
100
Completeness
The objective is to have 100% complete datasets at the
Archive Centres
Completeness may not be achieved for two reasons:
The transfer of the data to the Archive Centre fails
Operational activities at a data provider are interrupted and back
filling past runs is impractical
Incomplete datasets are often very difficult to use
Most of the current tools used for ensemble forecasts
assume a fixed number of members from day to day
These tools will have to be rewritten
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Achievements so far
Commitment from institutes willing to act as Archive
Centres has been secured
Commitment from many contributors has been secured
Definition of the database content (list of variables)
Data format has been agreed (GRIB2)
Transport mechanism for the data ingestion has been
chosen (LDM)
Data access policy has been established
TIGGE Archive Centres have started to collect data
Active collaboration between CMA, NCAR and ECMWF
Slide 17 work as a team
has been established – Archive Centres
TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Milestones for 2007 and 2008
Provide access to researchers via the infrastructure
already existing at the Archive Centres
Enhance the TIGGE infrastructure to enable real-time
access to forecast data to contribute to THORPEX
activities related to:
International Polar Year field campaigns
Beijing 2008 Olympics
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Will TIGGE be compatible with the WIS?
TIGGE Archive Centres are ECMWF, NCAR and CMA
All three are represented in the ICG on the WIS
Link within ECMWF
Project management for SIMDAT, one of the WIS building blocks
Chairing the TORPEX TIGGE working group
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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Relationship to the WIS
THORPEX is under the auspices of WMO Commission for
Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
The TIGGE data sets will become a key resource for
Research into multi-model ensembles forecasts
Development of societal and economic applications based on
multi-model ensemble forecasts
The TIGGE data is therefore an excellent candidate for
the type of cross-cutting information that users will be
able to discover and retrieve through the WIS
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TECO on the WIS, Seoul, 6-8 November 2006
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